On a made-for-America holiday in between two former Presidents’ birthdays, following is a series of short news items including a serious plea with a bit of self-promotion sprinkled in.
Pray for Annabelle Walters
I was honored to have been selected by the Walters family to bring their story of the 13-week premature birth of Annabelle Faith Walters to St. Louis Cardinals fans last Thursday. Since then, there has been an outpouring of prayers and support for pitcher P.J. Walters and his family from all over the Cardinal Nation.
I set up a special thread on The Cardinal Nation / Scout.com message board for fans to offer their thoughts. New grandpa Phillip Walters stops by with periodic updates. After five says, Annabelle continues to fight but remains in serious condition. Please continue to give your support any way possible.
Walters feature at the Globe-Democrat
I was asked to tell Annabelle Walters’ story to the readers of the St. Louis Globe-Democrat, which I did in this article. This “touching” photo of P.J.’s fingertip in Annabelle’s tiny palm was sent along by Phillip Walters.
Minor League Notebooks coming
The Walters article is the first evidence of my new collaboration with the Globe-Democrat for the 2010 season. I will be joining their stacked Cardinals-focused line up with a Minor League Notebook column starting next Thursday, February 24 and running weekly all season long. When schedules align with need, I may also be pitching in with game coverage articles for a handful of major league contests during the upcoming regular season.
I am delighted to be given the opportunity to reach an increasingly-wider audience by Globe-Democrat sports editor Rob Rains.
Back on radio
As I have done the past few years, I will be joining afternoon hosts Ken Miller and Matt Perrault from KXnO FOX Sports Radio in Des Moines every other week for an update on the Cardinals. The exciting new news is that KXnO just signed a multi-year agreement to join the Cardinals Radio Network. Among the other Cardinals experts who appear regularly on KXnO is FOX Sports Midwest’s Pat Parris.
FOX Fantasy Guide / Scout Prospect Guide
Annual subscribers to The Cardinal Nation/Scout.com Total Access Pass prior to this January 8 should soon be receiving in the mail your copy of the 2010 FOX Fantasy Guide / Scout Prospect Guide. The prospect section of the two-part Guide includes the top prospects from all 30 MLB organizations, the annual Scout.com top 300 prospect list and much more.
As always, The Cardinal Nation is responsible for the St. Louis Cardinals prospects section and this year’s article was written by yours truly. There is also a full fantasy baseball section to help you prepare for your drafts.
For those who aren’t annual subscribers, soon, if not already, the annual Guide will be available on newsstands from coast to coast for the very-reasonable price of $4.95.
The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2010
As I do every year, I am a contributor to The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2010, which has been on sale for several weeks now for $7.99. In addition to my player capsules, picks and pans, mock draft participation and the like, my essay on taking the 2009 National League Tout Wars expert league championship is featured.
Following are some of the highlights of The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2010, edited by my long-time friend and fantasy league foe Peter Kreutzer, more widely-known simply as “Rotoman”.
- Winning strategies – tips from the experts who won their leagues
- Rookies – who to target this season
- An NFBC-style mock draft tp prep you for your own draft
- Who to target and who to avoid – the experts offer over 300 picks and pans
- The ever-popular and must-have cheat sheets
Follow me on Twitter.
Bravo Brian………………. it does sound remarkable like work after a point I’m thinking. Be careful about that.
Heads-up, Curling is on USA network. TeamUSA v Germany. Those German sweepers look good. Solid mechanics.
WC, thanks and fair point. bb, you are clearly in the wrong place, though I had to admit to my kids this past weekend that I have curled before…
Before a packed house, TeamUSA is down 7-4 after 8, which is very bleak indeed. The USA thrower doesn’t seem like a big play type. He’s toolsy but he throws funny. He’s a gamer though. Let’s hope for another miracle on ice.
The Birds have a goal of gaining 5 rookies per year. They are in a strong position to meet this goal during 2010. Who are candidates?
David Freese is a leading candidate to replace Glaus.
Tyler Greene could field SS, 3B, 2B, and owing to speed all 3 OF slots, like a more athletic Hector Luna. Greene could suit TLR and find enough at bats to gain traction as a hitter.
Allen Craig is a good hitting backup to Holliday in LF.
Jon Jay could serve as a left swinging backup OF.
Pete Parise seems a plausible candidate as a set up reliever.
Jaime Garcia could become the 5th starter at some point during 2010.
Though perhaps not a rookie, if he returns to good health and wrist/hand strength, Joe Mather provides a promising player behind Ryan Ludwick.
Even while the Cards get low grades on their minor league system as a whole (because of low profile unknowns at low rungs), the odd reality is they have seldom had as large a group of ML-candidates from AAA.
Is the objective five, Jumbo?
I thought the corporate goal was 5 (premised on three from US amateur ranks, 2 international).
If the team opened the season with Freese, Greene, Jay, Craig, and Parise, then it would arguably reach the company’s own internal business goal.
Garcia, Mather, and others could toil at Memphis to prepare themselves for a call, should any be needed later.
The Cards teams in the high minors have tended to be young in terms of average age. In time, this can feed a youth movement at the ML level as well.
The Cardinals are especially well-positioned for relievers and reserve players at the high level of the system, yet there is no one viewed to be as impactful as Colby Rasmus. There is also a concern about the perceived weakness behind the current front line.
In the next couple of days at The Cardinal Nation, I will publish part two of the BaseballHQ analysis of the Cardinals. The second part offers several comparisons over multiple years. One is the Cards vs. the NL Central and the rest of baseball. Another is the Cardinals hitting, pitching, depth and high-end potential against themselves over the last five years and finally, the potential of the top 15 Cardinals prospects this year compared to last. It really helps put some structure around the fall in rankings.
With Freese at third base, what will be considered successful?
I wouldn’t think he is expected to exceed Colby’s rookie season. So would .250ish be a success? Is it reasonable to expect more? With what will most likely be no more than serviceable defense, does it make sense to turn over the job to a rookie, hoping he will hit .250?
In other words, if we get toward the end of ST and Freese looks like .250 with sort of ok defense, do we go with that? Would we be able to say “Yah, but look at the upside potential”? I’m having trouble seeing it as an experiment worth making.
Brian, just for clarification, I have made a narrow observation that seems sound. The Cards have a abundant crop of ML candidates for 2010. You may hold additional views about another topic (a 5 year deep opinion about the minor league system as a whole).
In comment 7, Blingboy asks a question about Freese that is helpful for someone like Allen Craig as well.
Both men turned pro after using up 4 years of college eligibility. Craig was signed in the 8th round of 2006, Freese in the 9th. Craig was a senior and Freese a 5th year collegiate, who began at Univ. of Missouri, missed a season, transferred to a local St Louis community college for two years, then spent two seasons at Univ of S. Alabama.
One point that I would make is that this kind of athlete can simply, from the get go of draft day, never be a Rasmus type, so any comparisons to Rasmus would be unwarranted. Craig and Freese are circa 4 years older. Both were regarded as borderline defensively, though Freese has been better than hoped. They are Cards/Padres/As type recruits, well trained and developed collegiates, who can at least advance to AAA. Since their eligibility is gone, they are not costly in terms of signing bonus. For 8th and 9th rounders, signed for $15,000 and $6,000, they have done very very well in the minors. They may be able to play successfully in the majors in 2010, if there is an opening for either. And that is why they were drafted.
By definition, they will never have very long ML careers, so they will never be regarded as glitzy prospects or become Hall of Famers. But this does not mean they are unhelpful assets for the Cards in 2010-2014.
There are perceptual issues as to what constitutes a significant prospect. Schumaker and Ludwick are more examples of those who flew under the glitzy prospect radar.
Jumbo, where have you seen questions about Freese’s defense? I have never seen he and Craig lumped together defensively as you have done. A number of scouting reports praise Freese’s strong arm and soft hands. In 2007, in just his second season, he was rated the top defensive 3B in the California League. Craig has not received such accolades with reports of slow footwork, poor range and stiff hands.
As Carioca will remember, from the day the Cardinals acquired Freese, based on what I had been told by scouts, I made it clear that I believed he was by far the superior defender of the two.
Anthony Reyes would be another example of a collegiate senior who is interesting. He was a star pitcher at USC, a prospective first round pick, who suffered an arm injury as a junior. The Cards were able to sign Anthony in the 15th round of 2003, after his senior year, lower than Craig or Freese. Reyes took a summer off to rest, like Bittle in 09, and became a much hyped prospect by 2005, since with his maturity he rose to AAA inside two years. A great deal of hype and hope, but his ML career has not been great, regrettably, so far, hampered by the elbow that finally required TJ surgery. Jumbo wishes Reyes all the best with the Indians and hopes he catches some good luck.
So what is my point? Reyes was once much hyped, though he came from a similar collegiate background to Craig or Freese. Why was the former hyped, but the latter two are under-hyped? One reason is the Cards had so little in their pipeline in 2004-05, somebody had to be number 1. Secondly, Freese and Craig are able to hit ML pitching in 2010. They will never be hyped as prospects, but they could jump into battle and contribute well. Freese can handle an important position, 3B, so will get the playing time. Craig will get little play, unless there is an injury to Holliday, Pujols, or Ludwick. He is useful depth.
There are what I regard as perceptual illusions about some older ML ready players, because they tend to be compared to players the Cards never assumed they were.
Jumbo, you answered your own question. Reyes received attention because he had first-round talent. Craig and Freese were eighth/ninth round talent.
Good point about Rasmus entering pro ball in a different way than Freese. And I don’t dispute that Freese may be able to hold an MLB roster spot for a few years.
But there are certain requirements for a starting third baseman on a contending club. It can be superb defense and ok offense, or a big bopper with ok defense. Ideally both O and D. How can Freese be projected in that role? If you have avg defense, you have to have a big bat, simple as that.
So what I’m asking is, if Freese works out as well is it is reasonable to expect, is that good enough to be the everyday 3rd baseman on a contending team? And if not, then what is the point.
Brian, if you read the amateur scouting reports on Freese (via Baseball America) (I no longer subcribe and cannot access them), from 2006, he was not thought a sure thing defensively. Its a bit like Brett Wallace. A guy who needs to improve at 3B or default to LF or 1B, as so many must do. Freese must have firmed up his body and agility, and turned out better than many others of this ilk.
Craig played 6 different positions at U-Cal Berkeley. As a senior, he played SS. The Cards tried to move him to his most value adding pro position, 3B. He must not have had the arm strength.
Freese lifted his game defensively in the minors, whereas it turned out Craig could not succeed at 3B. The Cards picked Craig in the 8th, the Padres made a better choice as a fielder with Freese in the next round. But the two men were in the same general area of the same draft, both prospective 3Bmen as pros, both slow afoot, trained hitters, right swingers, inexpensive bonuses. The Cards later hired a guy from the Padres as deputy to Luhnow, indicative of sympathetic outlooks between the two businesses as regards draft day valuation of amateurs.
Re Brian’s post 9, Reyes had an injury. His uninjured talent may have been elite, 1st or 2nd round, but he fell to the 15th round in the draft, owing to his injury. Similarly Bittle was a 2nd rounder with the Yanks, and the Cards popped him in the 4th round in 2009, because of injury woes that reduce his draft day value.
Another useful “comp” for Freese or Craig is former Astro’s 3Bman Morgan Ensberg. He entered pro ball after a senior year with USC. Went in about the same point in the draft as Criag and Freese, 9th round.
Ensberg became a starter in Houston in 2003 and had a productive 4 year run (2003-2006), an important hitter on strong Astros teams (2005-6).
Some people will discount contributors like Ensberg. He became a ML regular about age 27 and was productive at 3B through age 30. Ensberg is not likely to reach the HoF, but he was helpful to the Astros for 4+ seasons. A good value choice for the 9th round of the draft, as was Freese and Craig.
Freese may have issues, but based on his record at Memphis, he could still turn out to be a big improvement over broken down, highly paid Troy Glaus. Or morale-cramped Khalil Green.
Freese is now old and mature enough to contribute in the majors, if he can impress TLR enough to get an audition.
Same with Tyler Greene. He has a strong arm, excellent base-stealing ability. He was age-wise a college senior coming out of Georgia Tech. He hit well last year at Memphis. If TLR can find him enough at bats, Greene can gain traction and hit ML pitching. He was slowed about one full year in the minors by a knee injury. He is ready for 2010, much as the Cards would have hoped when they drafted him in 2005. Because of his age when he signed and the delay from the knee injury, Greene is not glitzy as a prospect, but Mo and Jeff simply dont care. They are just happy to have Greene available, within the mix of choices this spring. They would rather have a hungry guy age 27 with great tools than a ML vet free agent in his 30s.
I should try to make more explicit one of my general points. If the perception of significant prospects are only guys who reach the majors by age 25, then the Cards are going to tend to fair poorly.
Greene (a high pick), Freese, and Craig were all destined not to reach the majors until post-25, owing to their ages when drafted. They are now ML candidates, at the ages they are now at, by the business intent of the Cardinals. The Cards selected them because they were already well developed and did not need a lot of projection. They were good bets to do well in pro ball, as they have shown. If they reach the majors post-25, then they may have lower career earning potential, but this is their problem, not a problem for the Cards.
Freese may earn the starters role at 3B. If so, he will save the team about $11MM/yr versus Glaus, and this is reinvested in the costly Holliday. To afford a star like Holliday, you need a guy like Freese to cover off another position at a good price.
SS is an important position. The Cards are in an enviable position to have Ryan, Greene for depth, and Lugo.
Allen Craig is helpful depth behind Holliday. If Matt were injured, we plug in good hitter, thought he is unglitzy, and keep going.
Joe Mather had fine potential before hamate/wrist injuries. He may be no longer a rookie. But if Mather were to bounce back physically and recapture his physical potential, he seems splendid depth in the event of an injury to Ludwick. Age 25-30 seems ML prime. The Cards must aim to hit this window.
All good points Jumbo. I worry that Freese will hit .250, but it is also possible he could hit .275 with some pop. If we were to get .275 out of 3rd base and another .275 out of CF this year, we will be way ahead of last year. Even if Mo picks up a position player, some of those young guys will play important roles. I hope they take advantage of the chance. Maybe Mather will give Freese a run for his money.
Spring is a time for optimism. Mather may work out at 3B, but he has not really played 3B since two summers at Johnson City. Afterwards the Cards shifted him off the position. Its a little hard to imagine him qualifying with the glove. Freese and T. Greene will likely wind up ahead of Mather in terms of 3B, come April. With Mather, so much depends on his wrists. If he recovers power, some team will make room for him.