What might the St. Louis Cardinals have seen in the second base market next year had they not locked up Skip Schumaker for 2011?
As most St. Louis Cardinals fans know by now, the club and second baseman Skip Schumaker came to an agreement on a two-year contract to avoid arbitration. The base amounts are $2 million in 2010 and $2.7 million next year with additional appearance-related bonuses that could take the total to $5 million.
My initial view was slightly positive as it looks to be a case where both sides gave a bit. The Cards took two years at a decent price and Skip received another year of security, something he said was important to him.
Based on the comps I posted earlier for The Cardinal Nation subscribers, I believe Skip had a decent chance of winning his arbitration case. Had he made over $2.4 million this year via arbitration, barring a collapse he would have made more next year ($3-$3.5M would not seem unreasonable). At that price, the Cards could have been tempted to non-tender Schumaker next winter.
Instead, this way Skip knows he can stay and the club will at most spend $5 million over two years to cover the position. The alternative may have been to spend as much as $6 million to keep him for the two years going year-by-year or finding a new second baseman for 2011 that would cost $3 million or less.
Another factor to consider is the lack of proven depth in the Cardinals outfield. Schumaker has demonstrated his ability to play all three positions, increasing his value to the club.
According to The Biz of Baseball, the rate of multi-year contracts for arbitration-eligible players who exchanged figures with clubs is slightly up this year. In 2009, 11 of 46 eligible players received multiple years while here in 2010, 12 of 44 have gone that route, with 12 situations still open, heading toward hearings.
As the discussion continued on The Cardinal Nation message board, another perspective was put forward. Among the legitimate questions posed:
- Is Skip is good enough to warrant the need to lock him up for an extra year?
- Is the potential of saving a million dollars worth giving up the non-tender option for the Cardinals?
- Is Skip more than a platoon second baseman who struggles in the field?
- Is Schumaker a value at this price?
I decided to take a quick and dirty look at what the second base market might be like next year, using this year as a guide. This effort is not to suggest the Cardinals should not have signed Schumaker to a 2010 contract, but more to consider what their alternatives might have looked like a year into the future.
I am assuming Skip’s immediate replacement would not have come from within. While Daniel Descalso is a fringe top ten prospect in the organization, he is not a sure thing with just one-half year of standout offensive performance in three professional seasons and a sub-.700 OPS over the remainder of his minor league career. There isn’t anyone on Descalso’s heels, either. Our annual Cardinals Top 40 Prospect List at The Cardinal Nation includes just one second baseman for the second consecutive year.
This winter, there were nine free agent second basemen on the market. Eight of them have found homes for 2010, the lone exception being former Cardinal Felipe Lopez. Most are in their 30’s. Five of the nine could be free agents again next winter. Though he was not a free agent, I included Schumaker in the group for comparison.
I listed the 2009 contributions of each player, using OPS+ for offense and UZR at second base for defense. With those scores, I ranked each of the players from 1-to-10 in each category and added the two numbers. Like in golf, low score is better. The ten second basemen are listed in that sequence.
Further, to the right, I listed the players’ 2010 and 2011 salaries, noting any additions, such as options or incentives.
| Free agent 2B | 2010 team | Age | 2009 OPS+ | 2009 UZR | Score | 2010 $M | 2011 $M | Other |
| Felipe Lopez | FA | 29 | 111 | 7.8 | 2.5 | |||
| Marco Scutaro | BOS | 34 | 111 | 0.3 | 7.5 | $6 | $6.5 | 2012 option |
| Craig Counsell | MIL | 39 | 105 | 5.0 | 7.5 | $2.1 | plus incentives | |
| Ronnie Belliard | LAD | 34 | 105 | 2.0 | 9.5 | $0.85 | plus incentives | |
| Freddy Sanchez | SF | 32 | 96 | 7.4 | 10 | $6 | $6 | |
| Orlando Hudson | MIN | 33 | 109 | -3.3 | 11 | $5 | ||
| Jamey Carroll | LAD | 36 | 90 | 2.7 | 13 | $1.35 | $2.5 | plus incentives |
| Adam Kennedy | WAS | 34 | 101 | -4.7 | 15.5 | $1.25 | $2 | 2011 club option |
| Skip Schumaker * | STL | 30 | 101 | -7.7 | 16.5 | $2 | $2.7 | plus incentives |
| Kelly Johnson | ARI | 28 | 83 | -0.1 | 17 | $2.35 |
* Not a free agent
Based on these measures of offensive and defensive contribution in 2009, Lopez stood substantially taller than any of the other nine. In between big-bucks signees Marco Scutaro and Freddy Sanchez are a pair of aging reserves coming off nice years, Craig Counsell and another ex-Cardinal, Ronnie Belliard.
Amid questions about his wrist, his defense and second-half falloff, new Minnesota Twin Orlando Hudson leads off the bottom five. In a most interesting comparison, both of the second basemen paid by the Cardinals last year posted OPS+ marks of 101, Adam Kennedy with Oakland and Schumaker. The former had a less-negative UZR.
Bringing up the rear is Kelly Johnson, who had a subpar year offensively with Atlanta and looks to rebound with Arizona in 2010. A year ago, some Cardinals fans endorsed a straight up trade of Johnson for Ryan Ludwick, an indication of Johnson’s prior success.
Conclusions?
A quick spreadsheet analysis like this of a single season has its obvious limitations, but if the 2009-10 free agent market is any indication of what 2010-11 will be like, then it certainly seems like a Schumaker replacement could be out there for the taking at a comparable price next winter.
My question is whether the likes of Counsell, Belliard, Carroll, Kennedy or Johnson would really be any better than Schumaker in 2011. At least Skip has the chance of improving his defense this coming season, and in doing so, perhaps moving up in the scoring hierarchy. His offense probably is where it is going to be. Clearly the top tier of Scutaro, Sanchez and Hudson are out of Skip’s league price-wise.
Then there’s Lopez, with the best 2009 UZR at second base and tied for the top OPS+ last season. Why is he still out of work?
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Well done.
Obviously from my posts at The Cardinal Nation, I think the second year was a mistake – but at least unnecessary.
Thanks, easton. Your questions helped spur me on to do this analysis. I always feel better having some facts behind me.
Brian, totally lost on how you came up with the scores. How you add two (what I presume are whole) numbers and coming up with a fraction isn’t clear to me.
Why do you fight against using WAR, a number that includes defense and would show differences a lot better?
While Schu has a chance to improve defensively, Johnson should rebound offensively.
Two factors missing, consistency (is last year really predictive) and flexibility (what if Descalso is ready or we need to spend money elsewhere?)
If anything, this analysis shows that we might have been better off even not tendering him THIS year. I would not go that far, but it sure looks that way.
Adding in 2011 and it almost seems like a no-brainer to NOT guarantee year 2. Like I said, we must be expecting Skip to be a monster this year.
Good point about non tendering.
Easton, hope you stick around over here.
I would spend more time here, but there are people here I’d rather not read every day. Sorry, but simple as that.
I genuinely appreciate Brian’s articles and the research that goes into them, but I don’t get into commenting here much – unless I really want to.
Maybe that will change.
In fact, it probably will once ST starts.
YAY!
We need to factor in several considerations to be taken along with the stats in analyzing the Cards move.
First is the versatility, covering an outfield spot with an experienced big leaguer. This gives the team a little extra roster flexibility.
Second is the risk of hiring a guy from outside the organization. Kahlil demonstrated the problem of trying to guage a players question marks. Kennedy demonstrated the uncertainty of how a guy will adapt and fit in. Both multi-million dollar lessons that dwarf the million or so that is at issue here with skip.
Third is the value of a known quantity, both on the field and in the clubhouse.
Fourth is the age factor.
On the down side is the platoon split and the liklihood that his defense at second, like his defense in the OF, will never be stellar.
CC, here are replies to your questions and comments.
1) Fractions. When two players had the same OPS+, they received the same score. For example, Lopez and Scutaro tied for first, so instead of being 1 and 2, they are both ranked 1.5. Here is the detail to help you better understand.
2) WAR. I am unaware of a war over WAR. Has here been a hue and cry about it that I missed? I don’t recall discussing it here before. What do others think? Personally, I am reluctant to get behind any all-encompassing number. My view is that sharpness is lost when trying to combine too many metrics into one. (See film clip below.)
3) Single number. I wanted to show both an offensive and defensive metric so people can see how the players stacked up in two diverse areas rather than melding them together and losing the distinction up front. One could debate weighting offense and defense equally I guess, but this was never intended to be a surgically-precise effort.
4) Johnson. If/when he returns to his past level of offensive performance, he would vault up to the $5-$6 million per year pack, making him an unsuitable comp for Skip.
5) Single year vs. longer period. I first did the work with career numbers, but threw it out. Skip has only been a second baseman for one year, so I decided to be consistent. In addition, what Counsell did 15 years ago seemed irrelevant.
Again, this analysis was not intended to be the be-all, end-all, but I think it was adequate to demonstrate that Skip is not the only option in his price/performance class.
P.S. Glad you liked the work.
“Third is the value of a known quantity, both on the field and in the clubhouse.”
True…but what if what we know about the player on the field just isn’t all that stellar?
We know him to hit righties.
We know him to not hit lefties.
We know he struggled defensively last year (I am willing to not call his first season representative, but I am not optimistic).
We know he is under team control in 2011 whether we guarantee it or not.
We know he is only going to be in a position to make significantly more in arbitration for 2011 than what we have already chosen to guarantee if he improves drastically in 2010.
The difference between our two year guarantee and what he is reasonably likely to earn in 2011 (coupled with the midpoint of their submissions this year – because I highly doubt we’d head to a hearing) is roughly $500,000-$1,000,000.
Is that savings enough to warrant the loss of our non-tender right should he regress in 2010?
Not to me.
And, as I have said before, non-tender would be a reasonable possibility for someone with Skip’s skillset as the seemingly automatic raises of the arbitration system pushes his salary towards and North of $3MM. And, barring an epic collapse, he’d get $3MM or close to it next year even with regression in performance.
I don’t expect regression, but I don’t expect significant improvement either.
Finally…
How many platoon players with poor defense get guaranteed multiple years while in their first year of arbitration?
I get your logic, easton. I know why you label Skip a platoon player, albeit the good side of the platoon. I don’t think the Cardinals see him that way, though. That may explain some of the differences in perception.
How can they not see him that way?
I feel the same as you – that they don’t see him that way (at least publicly) – but I cannot fathom thinking he is more than that. His sample size is pretty significant.
Skip is a very good player as part of an outfield platoon. Infield platoon? Meh. Infield starter? Really?
Also…I am not debating that he is worth his $2MM salary this year. I am not even saying he won’t be worth his $2.7MM-ish next year.
I am simply questioning the reasoning behind guaranteeing the second year now.
Multi-year arbitration deals are designed to help the club while providing stability and guaranteed income to the player. That is the trade-off. Player takes less to guarantee big money. Team saves a significant amount of money long term (based on projections) in return for guaranteering more than one year when not required to do so.
Did we do that? Skip got his part of the deal (stability, ability to retire at 35). What did we get? What was Skip’s concession?
$500,000?
Oooooohhhh.
I can see this may turn into Easton hates Skip day at TCN and the TCN Blog, but I hope people can see that is not the case.
I am talking business. Period.
New Shimmer Non-Dairy Floor Wax!
why would skip be a good outfield platoon candidate but not 2B platoon candidate? defense? maybe, but his 2B offense as a platoon player is off the charts.
Ah, the ol’ tie is what caused the odd numbers.
War basically takes the offensive # (OPS) and the defensive # (UZR) and combines them. The main advantage is it shows degrees of seperation. (for example, is the difference from Hudson to Sanchez the same as from Shumaker to Kennedy?) The down side is that for something like this it would have to be shown as full season equivalents since WAR depends somewhat on playing time. The bottom line is it is much more robust.
Brian, I assumed you were in a self actualization mode and didn’t need accolades from us peons.
Defense, yes.
His conversion was extremely impressive – if not spectacular, really – but I would prefer a capable second baseman.
With a platoon at 2B you culd get late inning defensive replacement more often. It would seem even more idle there to me.
Like I have explained before…I can live with a platoon at second base with Skip because of his side’s offensive contribution.
I think a Skip/Lugo platoon with Greene as a late inning sub would be acceptable…but acceptable doesn’t warrant a multi-year arbitration deal.
Solid points easton. The Cards must be confident he won’t regress, and that his defense will improve somewhat. They may also have wanted to lock up the issue now as one less unknown during the Albert re-up project. It could also be considered a move that Albert likes.
I would be interested in anybody’s view on whether the contract increases or decreases Skip’s trade value.
Re: Trade value.
I think my answer is pretty clear.
WC says weeks ago,”they’re likely working on a 2yr deal”……………and everyones supposes it has something to do with baseball…………………….. Right!
WC says a lot of things. Most are conspiratorial. The rest are attention-seeking. All sound/look as if written by Hunter S. Thompson on a bad trip.
The Cards seem to be playing the Lopez angle very quiet. Given the team’s needs, and Flipe’s good fit, Mo has to be keeping an eye on that however discretely. The thing is, if Boras’s price comes down to the Cards level, other teams should perk up too. That is, unless Lopez has issues that nobody is talking about. The two year deal could be a way of sending a message to Skip (and Tony) prior to making a move on Lopez. Just a thought.
Good to see you here Easton. Are you still angry about life?
Lopez is history BB.
Me? Nope. Never was. I am not the one who complains about everything and insists the sky is red.
He’s not history Westy. He’s the player whose name no one can mention without apparently getting struck by lightning or something. He may spend 2010 cleaning offices at Boras Corp.
Any one else thinking Boras called Mo within two minutes of learning about Brendan Ryan’s wrist surgery?
Some thoughts on that:
1. Shouldn’t have shaved the stache.
2. Obviously, MM changing Brendan’s stance is to blame.
3. Good thing we’re stoked with middle infielders…;)
4. Scottie can smell dry powder a mile away.
5. It will be good to see Tyler Greene get some AB’s to prove he can hit, or not.
Wouldn’t you think that changes a few things Brian? It really won’t. BD opens Pandora’s box if he signs Lopez. I believe the Cardinals are done. Lets watch.
Lozano came in for information gathering because of what happened between NY and Boston. Thats suggests that the Cardinals like where their at in the big picture. They are unlikely to change their posture at this point for anything less than a compelling reason. That is not Brendan Ryan. Green and Lugo will get more exposure is all.
A few comments:
While WAR is the hot new stat, this method of analysis seems to be just fine.
Skip did just start learning second base, but more importantly, he stepped aside and let Ryan and Pujols make plays for any ball that they possibly could. Of course his UZR is terrible. That score is reflective of his usage and the skill of the defenders around him rather than his true ability.
Short of a serious injury, Schumaker wouldn’t have been non-tendered. The man put up a .384 OBP against RHP last year and plays four positions. Even as a platoon player, he won’t be making a significant amount of money.
Many of those free agent second basemen are old or injured. No thanks to most of that lot.
Hi all, newbie here.
I was reading this thread and was a bit surprised to learn that Schu was lacking on defense. I thought I kept hearing how he was much improved and doing fine the second half. I don’t know. I can’t watch many games and stats can be misleading.
It is interesting to compare all these players based on metrics and a single years performance. And undoubtedly some of them would be a better choice assuming price is equal. But I’m going to complicate the discussion. I think there is “unmeasured” value to having Schu on the team. His ability to play all 3 OF positions and 2b. He really is the only guy the Cards could trot out to CF for a week if Rasmus gets nicked up. His dedication which rubs off on his teammates. He has been pretty much injury free and plays every day. And he is a good clubhouse guy.
Yeah, I’d rather have Utley but assuming we have to choose from the guys who will play at or near Schu’s price point I’m satisfied we got a good answer at 2b for 2 years. And nowadays $2.5 mil a year for a starter in any position is a bargain.
Welcome,. jimmy!
For the Cards to reward Skip with a 2 year deal, both sides will have perceived value. Skip got some greater financial security (against risk of career ending injury), while the Cards got a little cost containment.
Schumakersigned with the Cards from college and has only played for them. TLR must like his attitude and willingness to shift to 2B. The Cards must have wanted to invest in someone valued as a member of the family.
The Cards like to reward good performers, extending Franklin and Miller after their fine seasons, now giving Skip a 2 year deal. We did not have to do this, since he is under team control for a few more years anyway. It was a reward for a good guy.
I’ve finally had an opportunity to sit down and read this thread. Good one. Brian’s spread gives a fine opportunity to appraise and evaluate. Easton give a valuable baseball mans evaluation of the incongruence’s of this transaction, using plenty of rhetorical question marks to vent his consternation. BB testifies concerning his optimistic appraisal of Mo’s stealthy hunting abilities. Jumbo samples the Kool Aid with a few hardy cheers and much clicking of Kool Aid steins.
And West Coast watches his birds.
A few questions for you.
Skips Agent would have asked for a multi-year deal on day one, first minute. Then he offers his Arbitration figure…………………………………………. What do you really think they were talking about for a month?
Doors always open. Albert’s agent walks through. Do you think for an instant that he has spit out a number? Do you think the Cardinals offered a ball park figure? BD has just shown that by differing money without interest, you can make a contract look however you please. Boras acquiesces, Holiday’s boot on his neck. Thats not an issue. Both side would be undermined by presenting a position. BD by creating a tactical dismissal with a conservative market appraisal, Lozano by showing any flexibility that would hinder future negotiations with other clubs while giving the Cardinals incentive to act with a public propaganda tool. Both are fishing for leverage.
Shu contract is a good value. It is good with or without Tony. And most importantly, it does nothing that could be termed conciliatory toward AP. Lozano is here because should Albert end up in Boston, by some shadow agreement in a trade this year, that type of collusion could seriously hamper Albert’s contract size, in 2012. Everyone is studying that.
Bud Selig mediates a truce with guarantees between NY and Boston. What do you suppose he has promised that both would approve? A records assault/chase between AP and AR maybe? Lasting for years maybe? His legacy?
I see many signs suggesting this possibility. But then I gasped when Bobby Fisher nudged his queen bishop pawn forward yet another space against the evil Boris Spasky. Go figure.
Any bets on whether Damon takes the rumored 1 yr/<$4M offer from Atlanta.
Remember the look on his face as he jogged of the field as he was being relieved for defensive purposes? Think there could be an attack going on against Scottie B? No, he aced the Cardinals.
Mo made an informal offer on Felipe Lopez after the 2008 season. Apparently it was too cheap for Mr. Boras to acknowledge and Lopez took a one year deal (for $3.5MM IIRC) with the Diamondbacks.
Felipe had a good season in 2009. Boras is going to want more than $4MM.
If the Cards sign Lopez, he would seem best suited at 3B, landing Freese on the bench.
Mo has had a great off-season, put some golden handcuffs on Holliday, adding Penny, returning LaRue, collecting an extra pick for Pineiro, hiring McGwire. He may be done. Good to keep some powder dry.
Somehow this sounds like deja vu all over again, or am I imagining it?
“Mozeliak……did not learn of Ryan’s persistent pain until last Thursday…….The Cardinals admitted surprise ……In a perfect world, Brendan would have brought this to our attention sooner…….should have let our medical staff know.” from stltoday
If employees consistently hide things from their employee it most likely the employer has created an environment/culture where unpleasant news is not accepted. The Cards may need to look in the mirror.
Interesting perspective, CC.
Plausible scenario CC.
Something brewing. Ryan was with MM last year. Does his short swing approach have a downside for those that don’t have Popeye forearms and wrists?
I could see where a player without enough strength in the forearms could be injured by adopting swing mechanics that require it. Maybe that’s a lesson MM the hitting coach had to learn.
Pros can be expected to do the work to be strong and fit enough to play the game without hurting themself. Maybe Jack Clark syndrome (no workout) early in his career played a part.
I’ve been on both sides of that environment and once had to change my ways when I realized my employees were acting the way they did because of how I acted. We’ve all seen it in kids as well. The kids that tell their parents everything are the ones that know their parents won’t punish them unfairly and unjustly for mistakes. The kids that hide things from their parents are those that know they’ll get yelled at and beaten if their parents find out.
Carioca and Bling, Brendan Ryan plays hard. He sometimes suffers injuries. He injured a hammy in 2006, IIRC. And he had wrist problems about then too. Ryan has probably been playing through some wrist pain ever since, not because he likes it, but because he felt he had to. He probably told Cardinals medical staff about chronic pain, but if they did not offer a quick solution, then he had to play with it or find a new job in life.
Lately he got referred to a sawbones who says there may be a simple solution. Mo is right to be annoyed, imo. Either there is a solution the Cards medical people did not provide or Ryan is getting operated on by the wrong guy. Either way, Mo should not like it.
Jumbo, there seems to be a pattern. There is most likely a reason for the pattern. Obviously you dont have a better explanation for the pattern.
CC, I think there are a variety of causes. TLR is a playibility, play with pain guy. Walt probably put up with it, because he did not have a lot of depth. I doubt Mo and DeWitt like this. They have built depth at AAA. If somebody gets hurt, put him on the DL and get him well.
Then there is the Doctor guy, whats his name. It seems like Mo is demanding he be more assertive. It was amazing when he found a problem in Trever Miller’s shoulder a couple of years ago. Now he finds the eye problem with Wagner Mateo. So the Doc is waking up, a little anyway.
My guess is Brendan Ryan is his own unique case. He had a bad wrist a couple of years back. Should the Cards have got him fixed then? Maybe it was bad doctoring. But then Ryan had to keep playing. He has probably had this problem so long, he stops talking about it to Cards medical staff.
Somebody, maybe McGwire, learned his wrist hurt and gets him to another doctor.
This should bring home to Mo that everybody needs an exhaustive September and October medical examination.
But wrist ligaments are tricky stuff. Its not clear Ryan is going to be improved. We will hope for the best.
I hope everyone will read the article I just posted on the main The Cardinal Nation site, entitled “Why Brendan Ryan Didn’t Put Off Surgery”. It should answer many of the questions being posed here and elsewhere.
Cards already backpedaling on recovery time. 3 weeks until swinging a bat is now 3-6 weeks in latest articles.
The Paul Ryan interview gives me a negative feeling about the Cards medical staff. Brendan had to just put up with it for years until his agent had him go outside the org, and viola, its fixed. Non-invasive. Pain free for first time in years. I hope Brendan gets and stays in good shape and has an injury free spring and season.
CC, I agree 100 percent that any recovery time has associated risk. Maybe the Cardinals have decided to start taking a more conservative approach given they have taken a lot of heat for past estimates that were proven to be too optimistic. Another factor perhaps is that the Cardinals physicians have probably have not yet actually examined Ryan themselves since the procedure, since it was done on the West Coast a couple of days ago. I would imagine Drs. Paletta and Shin have spoken, though. Here is hoping it all blows over quickly.
Mo should monitor cortisone shots. If an athlete needs cortisone, what is the source of pain? Cortisone is a steroid hormone that reduces inflamation. Its generally not going to fix an underlying cause. If Ryan was taking cortisone last year, he was hurt and the Cards were not diagnosing the source of the pain.
Some injuries are straightforward to diagnose. Other injuries, like Duncan’s cracked neck disk or Carpenter’s transient nerve system impingement leading to muscle misfirings or the source of Ryan’s wrist pain, must be harder. Prompt diagnostics seems the common root to a variety of problems, through the years.
Mo should monitor cortisone shots, throughout the organization, not just the ML team. Athletes are going to suffer injuries and sometimes it may make sense to play with minor ones and defer therapies or surgeries to the offseason. However, it can also be a competitive advantage for a business to get its employee atheletes healthier via supplying top notch medical care, from the bottom rung to the top.
BB-The Paul Ryan interview gives me a negative feeling about the Cards medical staff. Brendan had to just put up with it for years until his agent had him go outside the org, and viola, its fixed. Non-invasive. Pain free for first time in years. I hope Brendan gets and stays in good shape and has an injury free spring and season.”
BB,……..They aren’t motivated to give Medical Opinions that effect the Surface Politics of the team. There is a noticeable restraint (inhibition) instilled.
Interesting point. If one excepts the premise that trying to make this sound like a minimal inconvenience one moment, doubling in recovery time the next shows a pattern, it might. I pointed out that any reaction to players acquisition could appear to influence the AP posturing………….Maybe they’ve changed their mind and are going to pick up a player using this as a justification rather than worrying that it appears to placate AP. Lets watch that for a few days.
Good interview Brian.
Westy, are you thinking that a certain switch-hitting top of the order unemployed infielder might be less historical than previously stated?
They are maneuvering for some reason BB. I’m just watching. What they actually do at any point could derive from the an ongoing dialog.
I’ve been giving you guys the Sachs Goldboy story now for better than a year. They are almost exposed, and yet they have strong allies in the White House. Its all the same story. BD is deep in that do-do.
So now Ryan’s wrist injury is maneuvering? I love it! Why pay for a newspaper or a web site when you can get so much free entertainment right here.
BB, once again for technical reasons, Lopez might not be their guy. He will push Shu into center at times and that isn’t what they desire. They know well by now what Tony is likely to do with the materials they provide.
“So now Ryan’s wrist injury is maneuvering? I love it! Why pay for a newspaper or a web site when you can get so much free entertainment right here”.
You find someone that supports your position………….and you can’t read it. The realignment of recovery time expectations by the Cardinal Medical staff is now a restriction on Tony’s spring usage of Ryan. I’m saying they have a motivation. Its about something. I really don’t know why. I have hypothesized. Its my attempt to interact with people that make statements like this:
“Cards already backpedaling on recovery time. 3 weeks until swinging a bat is now 3-6 weeks in latest articles.”
Scout Blog may suit you better CC.
The original P-D article seems to have been changed to now read 3-6 weeks. It is possible that it was not backpeddling or maneuvering but simply either a mistake or sloppy reporting by the P-D. I hope it’s not turning into one of those unreliable ‘right leaning’ news sources that jonseals and Brian were discussing on another thread.
I haven’t even read it BB…………….Sorry.
Interesting story with the Giants and Timmy boy. 23 for two years, yikes. Considering the many observation made about his health and longevity, let alone the serious sports car party money he has now………………have the Giants done it again? In all fairness, I actually know why. They can insure these years more equitably now. If he does stay viable, who will pay him. They had a 3yr deal that he turned down that he should have taken. He’s betting that he sees a big payday in 2012 I guess. That’s encouraging. ……………………this is a bone crushing business.
bb, those who know me well would affirm that I am among the most apolitical people around. Left, right, up and down, whatever. I dislike them all equally, just as I do bad reporting!
WC, I am sure Timmy is feeling no pain, so I won’t feel any for him…
It is a great story about the Arbitration process tho Brian. They go 8. he goes 13. They figure they are going to loose which comes out to 13 plus a raise in 2011, likely 15, which gives you 28 for 2yrs……………… They figure they saved 5 large………………If they come out 10.5, they might have taken their chances on a year to year basis. That comes out to what they just spent anyway, but it lets them dictate the 9 this yr which may be important to them.
WC – I did miss read your point as the injury being maneuvering not the the recovery time being the maneuvering (my fault). In any case, I’m not going anywhere — why would i want to miss out on all your conspiracy theories?
btw, Linicum gets much more than 15 large in 2011 if he gets 13 this year. Look at Luds (or Cory Hart if you prefer) — big performance drop off and still a 50% raise in 2nd year arbitration. If he gets 13 this year he was looking at near 20 next year with a decent season. From the numbers, I’d say if anyone thought they were going to lose it was Linicum.
Besides WC, why would I go to Scout when I could be like you and post under a different name at that slum called the P-D?
I’m with you Brian, and I don’t mind those on either side of that fence, but I like to poke fun at those who seem to think one side is somehow more virtuous than the other.
Your perception of the raise expectations is way over. So few of the cases that have this potentiality are ever heard. (Howard). The player cannot lose money, the amount of raise is unfixed. Ludwick might have asked for more based on his 93 RBI’s, but we know where those came from. His BA and runners in scoring position stats cause him to loose that hearing. The raise he got is less reflective of his talent than it is an enhancement of his trade valuation. If he bats 5th and hits 300, he will have 150 RBI’s this year. (unlikely) That will move him out for sure.
I’m doing a Doctoral Thesis in Comparative Religions. Guess what my topic is. I have tested and studied a number of groupings. You will get a questionnaire at some point. The Cards talk group is fantastic melange of intellect and personal insecurity. They have a half dozen sanctuary operatives that you would swear work for the Cardinal Org. They don’t of course, but like our Jumbo they represent a very provocative category unique to St. Louis baseball. It will be published I dare say.
Luhnow/Kieth Law :
“Said Luhnow, who cited internal analysis as placing the system around the industry midpoint: “I’ll put our analysis up against Keith Law’s all day long and after five minutes the debate will be over.”
Law responded in a Thursday chat: “Now we know: Not only do the Cardinals need better prospects, they need better analysts, too.”
That was a good retort by Law though, considering the Cardinals valuation of there own prospects.
They pulled teeth to get Rasmus here. Ryan advanced because of the Green boondoggle. They had nothing for the playoff, little for the Sept call up. Tony/Albert always calling for help. You don’t need to do much evaluating. Dollar on a dime they tell Luhnow to shut up.
This is what I was thinking:
Suppose Luhnow was telling it like it really is inside the organization. Suppose the Cards’ analysts really do evaluate the Cards’ prospect pool as midpoint. Then, I suppose, Law is entirely correct? What then?
If the Cards analysts rank themselves at the mid point I’d say they are spending way to much time analyzing other organizations. Why should they be trying t figure out what organization ranks ahead of another? What value does that serve for them?
That said, why would you assume Law is correct and the Cardinals are wrong?
I would assume the Cards’ analysts to be wrong for several reasons:
First lack of objectivity, in that the analysts probably work for Luhnow and helped choose the prospects in the first place.
Second, it wouldn’t just be Law who was wrong, but every other ranking I have seen or heard of.
Third, as Westy said, “They had nothing for the playoff, little for the Sept call up.”
Fourth, my own opinion that there are no impact players, just AAAA type role players who could probably be picked up as FA’s cheeper that what it costs to develop them from scratch.
BB, the Cards have been giving away players. Oakland was more desperate than the Cards. Cards sold them one of the prospects for 1.5, essentially for added Cash. Cleveland was shrewd, they did well against an emotionally motivated BD/MO and who were fighting a collapse and losing streak. SD turned down an attempt to trade Shu or Luddy and got a good pitcher for junk (Green). No one is going for these guys unless there is no recourse……….. I’m sure there are a few extenuating circumstance, but it doesn’t look good. A’s turned over our number one with just a short look.
Hay y’all,
haven’t been following all this but just read the link to Brian’s article at Scout and I am feeling very optimistic about “the Boog’s” 2010 season . Man, if he could improve because of the surgery this could be one fantastic Redbird season.
If he turns great, if Colby develops, if Freese shows promise…….we should do some spanking Chief.
Free-agent infielder Felipe Lopez has fired his agent, Scott Boras, and signed on with the Beverly Hills Sports Council, a source told ESPN.com Friday. link
Among BHSC clients: Albert Pujols…
I believe I’ll break out my Jameson’s and make it a double. TLR is probably doing the same.
I saw where M. Leach projects Rasmus batting 6th. Good man that Leach.
Question is, does it make a difference? Boras was telling him to be patient. Now the fun starts. No matter where he ends up, it was Albert that sent him to BHSC. This could get good. I had a feeling that the Brewers were going to wait for a desperation offer to take hold. Scottie would never go for that knowing Seligs relationship to that team.
You would think that Albert may well expect something to come of this. Read thread again for why.
Someone will surely sign him now just to rub Scotties nose in it.
What if Albert approaches Mo and says,” man, he will take an incentive laden deal…….and Mo says no. Or will DeWitt bury the hatchet in Scotties back. This is perfect.
I’m with you, BB, regarding a team’s evaluation of their own prospects. If they don’t consider their own system to be at least mid-tier, then they haven’t been drafting the players that they rank highly for some reason. Right or wrong, you are going to fill your organization with the players that you rate more highly than others do.
Nut – not necessarily true. You can draft the players you rank hihgky but they may not be turning out the way you want or expected them to.
Lets get back to business.
There are protocols honored to some extent by Pro Agents. Scott Boras is a very powerful and influential character. In any dialog or exchange with Lopez, its highly unlikely that Lopez comes out on top. That being said, the likelihood that Lopez jumps from Scottie to Hollywood in the same day, all by him self is slim and none. The connection to Hollywood certainly wouldn’t have been promoted by Lopez. The immediacy of the announcement was purposeful then in the market place. That is a move by a professional agent in an influential position from the get-go.
I would say this is a likely scenario;
Albert calls Lopez, or Lopez calls Albert, either is a possibility. Lopez wants to know why the Cardinals aren’t picking him up. Pujols wants to know what Boras is asking or what the Cardinals are offering, if anything. Lopez obviously is resentful of Boras using him as a Hood Ornament in a collusion case, or fearful that he is a victim of an attack on SB by the owners. Albert says that you should talk to my agent. Lozano sees a goldmine of information concerning Cardinal intentions wrapped up in this situations, so he advises, through Albert I would guess, that he jump to his agency. Lopez calls Lonzano and then calls Boras and terminates. This can be a litigious situation, so I’m guessing all the details were scrutinized.
The game is really on now. It is likely that Lozano pushes hard to get the Cardinals to make some sort of deal…………..or know why. I would guess this is indicative of what is really happening in the Albert/ Cardinal negotiations.
Brian’s article on TCN site shows one outfit ranking Cards system 30th. According to their figures, Mo’s plan is to give the 3rd base job to a guy with a 15% chance of having a ‘significant MLB career’.
Other than Gatcia, who is given a 35% chance, everybody else Mo is counting on to fill roster spots could hardly even be considered legitimate prospects the odds are so long.
http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100212&content_id=8070492&vkey=news_stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl
This is a very convenient delaying tactic. Its timing is clear. It says nothing. This is an invitation for Tony to say something. It presumes, falsely, that what ever the Cards want or need, will be available at their pleasure. Last year it was, “we just don’t see anything we like”.
My point here isn’t about a desire to sign Lopez. I would rather watch the kids myself. These tactics will influence the Pujols negotiations though.
I have been schooled on message 82. Although plausible, it is not probable that Albert is a go between here. From appearances, Lozano may have approached this problem with his own “information seeking” motivations. Apparently, cherry picking by agents in a notorious pass time, according to a friend.
The P-D article just up by Gould on Duncan talking about watching Penny throw today is encouraging. Ol’ DD is slathering (for him) over getting to work some majic on this guy. If it works, it will work big.
The article on McGwire and Ryan makes the wrist situation more understandable. With Brendan being laid up for a while, maybe Mac can somehow make a hitter out of Tyler.
He was saying that he thinks its just about focusing his resources that will make him a good pitcher. I agree.
Hill looks like he has some release issues. I know he was just tossing, but he was playing with it. Lets hope Duncan has all the answers BB.
Westie, fiction doesn’t have to be accurate. Plausible with some entertainment value is probably a sufficient standard. If probable was your standard, we’d lose 2/3 of your postings.
Thanks CC.
(fiction)
The word is that the AP talks went no further than stated above. One of the advantages of being in closed talks (stalling) with the Cardinals, Lozano apparently used that position to pick off Lopez from SB. This is an uncommon occurrence. It is attempted often though. Rarely does an agent find the type of advantages that would create an appearance of “superior position”. This would be one of those……………………. Scottie often has to deal with appearing to be the target of colluding owners which worries his clients………………………. he parried gracefully with a ” 30 teams aren’t looking for a “starting” 2nd baseman comment.
The point here is Lozano has nothing better to do than hustle a vulnerable kid……… its business, he knows what to do with advantage. It is a huge tell about his Cardinal disposition though. Boras pays him back……..if this wasn’t a payback already by Lozano. Life goes on. I’ll tell you whats coming down soon enough.
It may be a coincidence that the one remaining FA that the Cards could really use, and who TLR would surely love to have, but who Mo and BDW seem disinterested in, just happened to sign up with agent of the one man in all the world who might be able to get things moving in Tony’s direction. And who may well favor that direction as well.
It may also be a coincidence that it just happened to occur 3 or 4 days after Brendan’s surgery.
But another possibility, along the lines of what Westy has been hinting at, before he backpeddled, does seem to present itself. None of this means Westy isn’t hallucinating, it just means he might be right.
Westie , no need to clarify your thanks as fiction – it’s plausible that one day you will actually thank me.
Your my ??????? here Man of Rio. I thank you now.
BB—-”It may be a coincidence that the one remaining FA that the Cards could really use”
The Cardinals are the market foundation for any plan Lozano may be crafting. If they are winners, all guarantees go up. He is in a position to offer Lopez now for chump change and incentives, just because it increases his prospects exponentially for getting close to 300 mill for AP where ever.. The Cardinals will hold their money against that possibility. If Pujols comes out smoking, they may use it to embellish, especially in support of a Franklin alternative , or a Carp breakdown. If Albert comes out slow, they will just watch, profiting by his struggles. They have until the 7/31st.
Summation………..I would be very surprised it they took Lopez. At any cost. He likely ends up in Milwaukee. They will pray for prospects to raise their value.
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/6D505ABBD9C0DA07862576CE001625B8?OpenDocument
There is more bunka in this than your usual article. They are praying Lozano doesn’t leave Lopez on Mo’s porch wrapped in a blanket, with photographers around.
If the Cards end up needing a pitcher at some point, I don’t see it coming from the wreched refuse of the FA market. We will need something to trade. That something will be the more useful bullet. That something should be a strong defender and an offensive tool and should be versatile enough to fit a variety of possible needs.
Mo’s hesitation on Lopez isn’t really about the money and saving the bullet. If the Cards have around $7M left, they could sign Lopez and still have their bullet if they need a pitcher. After all, what pitchers are left that you couldn’t get for $4M?
I understand that going forward there is a big chunk going to a core group, and Luddy will be getting expensive, so Mo needs to see if these young guys can hack it. That is no excuse for not doing what it takes to win now, and I’m not talking division champ.
Nice article on Mr. Selk the Cards staff psychologist on TCN site. Never knew there was one. Must have got a workout last year.
Thanks, bb. Selk is not a player’s personal psychologist. His job is to get them mentally prepared on the field.
Haven’t listened to the interview yet, but can one really separate the two?