The addition of Mark DeRosa, then Matt Holliday defined the 2009 St. Louis Cardinals season.
Seeing a very legitimate chance of going deep into the playoffs and perhaps taking their second World Series in four years, the St. Louis Cardinals took a major risk on July 24 by trading for outfielder Matt Holliday. One month earlier, the club had added Mark DeRosa, who offered the promise of stability at third base and some immediate long ball pop.
In acquiring the two veterans, both impending free agents, the organization paid a high price, giving up in return five players taken in the first two rounds of the 2006 through 2008 drafts. All were considered top organizational prospects, with three having made their MLB debuts, one in Triple-A and the other in Double-A at the time.
They included relievers Chris Perez and Jess Todd, sent to Cleveland for DeRosa plus starting pitcher Clayton Mortensen, outfielder Shane Peterson and the Cardinals’ first-round pick in 2008, third baseman Brett Wallace, who went to Oakland in return for Holliday.
The return was immediate and noticeable.
When the former Cubs fan favorite DeRosa was added on June 27, the Cardinals had lost their first place status and were trending south. Though the third baseman contributed, he hit the disabled list by July 1 due to a wrist injury that required post-season surgery. Despite slamming eight home runs in his first 22 games with the club, DeRosa skidded to a .228 average by season’s end.
By the time the Holliday deal was announced on July 24, the team had a precarious lead of just 1 ½ games. The Cards would go on to win 39 and lose 25 over the remainder of the regular season for a post-Holliday winning percentage of .609. They were the first to clinch and their final divisional cushion was a comfortable 7 ½ games after having reached a high-water mark of 11 1/2 games out front in early September.
Holliday offered what the Cardinals had been lacking and what caused manager Tony La Russa to campaign for his addition for several years, a legitimate clean-up hitter behind Albert Pujols.
Pujols’ rate of intentional walks had been an increasing problem as more and more National League managers decided to avoid giving Pujols a chance to beat them. That changed once Holliday arrived. The rate of Pujols’ intentional walks was more than cut in half once Holliday was batting behind him.
Pujols could not be pitched around as Holliday was on fire, batting .357 with 13 home runs and 57 RBI in just 63 games with St. Louis. Holliday’s total of 12 game-winning RBI was second-highest on the team. Pujols had 19, but it took him all season to accumulate them. At his new home, Busch Stadium, Holliday was even better, batting .385 (50-for-130) with nine home runs and 35 RBI in 34 games.
The success did not continue in the post-season, however. With Los Angeles manager Joe Torre avoiding Pujols, Holliday didn’t make the Dodgers pay. He batted just 2-for-12 (.167) in the three NLDS defeats, and did not immediately atone for his game 2 fielding error that turned a sure win into a loss. In the season-ending game 3 at home, Holliday went 0-for-4 with three left on base.
On the other hand, DeRosa, still dealing with the wrist problem, went 5-for-13 (.385) against the Dodgers, second to Colby Rasmus among the Cardinals starters.
Following the season, St. Louis offered both free agents arbitration, but they declined as expected. The Cardinals never seemed serious about re-signing DeRosa, instead likely using him as part of a fallback plan had they been unable to lure Holliday back.
Perhaps seeing the writing on the wall, DeRosa signed a two-year contract with San Francisco prior to Holliday’s decision to remain a Cardinal for the next seven or eight years.
The Cardinals receive a compensatory pick in the 2010 draft for DeRosa’s departure, softening a bit of the blow of having yielded Perez and Todd. Yet the aggregate impact of the trades clearly weakened the Cardinals farm system with several years likely required to reload.
The acts of the trades as well as the subsequent financial commitment made to Holliday should have settled the lingering questions of some over Cardinals ownership’s commitment to win.
All in all, in my view, these bold trades and their subplots became the top story across the Cardinal Nation in 2009.
Next up: A look back at how my prediction from 12 months ago of the top five Cardinals stories of 2009 came to pass, followed by my look ahead to the top five Cardinals stories of 2010.
Link to The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of the year countdown
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[...] 20. Wagner Mateo 19. Minors coaching turnover 18. Shelby Miller 17. John Smoltz 16. Change in centerfield 15. Shortstop shuffle 14. Whitey to the Hall 13. Memphis and Springfield success 12. Duncan’s disc, discord and departure 11. Third base turmoil 10. Kennedy’s final season Skip-ped 9. The return of Big Mac 8. Franklin the finisher 7. Penny for Pineiro 6. The successful odd couple – Mo and TLR 5. The failed finish 4. Holliday’s free agent romp 3. Cy close and closer 2. The repeat MVP 1. The big trades [...]
While the trade for Derosa helped somewhat………………losing Perez could be tough if the RH side of the pen falters(McClellan,Franklin,Motte,,Kinney,Hawksworth).Todd and Perez for dand Cards have a bat in case Albert leaves(i think and hope he stays.).Wallace best position is 1B and we all know who is blocking him there.Peterson is behind about 4 or 5 of the same type OF the system.Mortenson is a prospect who could develop into a serviceable starter.Fact remains that it takes some quality to get quality.What are the chances any of players traded for DeRosa and Holliday will become All-stars? Wallace is now in Toronto of the AL and has Texiera,Morneau,Youkolis,Konerko,Carlos Pena and Miquel Cabrera all in his league.
Chris Perez has to beat out Kerry Wood (big dollar contract) to close in Cleveland and i think he will take over the closers job as soon as the Indians shed Woods contract via trade.Todd will end up a serviceable pitcher and no more IMO.
IMO losing Chris Perez will hurt more than any of the other prospects because Cards now need to rely on Motte as a hard thrower and wait for Samuel,Salas and Sanchez to develop.
All in all Mo did what was needed at the time..The results didn`t quite vome up to the fans hope although the Cards have a solid 3-4-5 in the order for this year and next.
Typing got a bit garbled in 1st response.Sorry gang.Having Holliday gives AP some protection and if AP does leave ( he stays IMO) the Cards have a solid bat in place.
Of the 3 players traded for Holliday only Wallace could be more than a serviceable player.
I am curious, Bw52 (and others). As we have seen, one ranking of the Cardinals farm system dropped from #8 last year to #29 this year. Losing these five players was cited as one big reason, along with the graduations of Rasmus and Motte (Hawksworth is still considered a prospect this year.) The major additions since #8 ranking are Miller and Stock.
In the light of your assessment of the five players traded away, was the Cardinals system overrated at #8 last year? Here are the differences.
#8 rank in 2009: Rasmus, Wallace, Mortensen, Todd, Perez, Peterson, Motte
#29 rank in 2010: Miller, Stock, Bittle, Kelly, …
A number of other players still in the system had down years as well: Jones, Anderson, etc…
No i don`t think the syatem was overrated last year.
Wallace is a 1B and a DH -he went to the AL where he could flourish..maybe.I see him as a Lyle Overbay type….15-20 HRs 75-80 RBIs and .280 average for his best year.
Chris Perez can be better than average IMO and he could win the closers job in Cleveland
Mortenson could end up a Brad Thompson type pitcher…
Peterson will be a 4th or 5th OF or a backup 1B……..lacks big pop.
Jess Todd .could be a Brad Thompson type also.
That the system traded 5 guys that could become major leaguers reflects well on the system.Perezhad some MLB experience.Wallace was a top prospect who was in AAA.
Todd,Mortenson where in AA-AAA and Peterson was a decent prospect.
Rasmus came in and became a regular in the bigs.
I think the systen is ranked so low this year because most of the so-called big talent is in mostly in the lower levels.
… and as we know big talent in lower levels increases the odds they won’t ever make it, as opposed to the traded guys closer to the majors.
This is one of the points I have tried to make in explaining the drop. The traded players had something like 14 years of minor league experience that cannot be replaced instantly.
Agree.The more steps a player has to rise means more chances to get hurt or to fall behind a suddenly hot prospect type.
I think most peopleget a bit too eexcited one way or the other over system ratings.The purpose of the minors is to develop players for the big league team.This season the system is rated 29th and yet the Cards have Allen Craig,Jon Jay,David Freese,Adam Ottavino,Fernando Salas,Lance Lynn, and some others who could possibly make the major league roster.
While it might not be a “look at me” can`t miss system it is still doing the job much better in the last several years than before.
no comparison
Miller = Rasmus potential wise but he’s so far away the risk are high compared to Rasmus.
Stock – most think he is out of position and losing time towards pitching. Even at that, he was in a league below what his 3 years of major college experience dictated. Heck, Vasquez (same age but just out of hs hit better than Stock at JC the year before).
Bittle – yet to throw a pitch and lots of q’s about his health.
Kelly – appears to be Reifer lite – good stuff but still hittable. How can someone who throws 99 mph get so few k’s – even in college?
That said, the real problem was lack of development (actually often regression) with Jones, Anderson, Kozma, Vasquez, Samuel, Salas, Ottavino (less so), etc.
Wallace was flipped for Michael Taylor – we could have done that presumably and be looking at Ludwick’s replacement (and cheap) next year. The Wallace blocked at 1B no longer applies!
Cards have a need in the system for 3B.
Who are the top 3B in the system.Matt Carpenter?
What’s the matter, CC? Don’t you see Allen Craig or Daryl Jones as Ludwick’s replacement?
Bw52, at third, Carpenter is probably the highest in the system with a decent chance, but Roberto De La Cruz received the big money. He is still very young and I understand very green defensively.
Losing Gregerson hurt us more than Todd and more than Perez in the short run.
RH relief is still probably the system’s strength though.
Cards also have Joe Mather and Tyler Henley as OF possibilities.Henley is going to sneak in a surprise people .
I tend to agree that losing a lot of middle relievers isn’t all that painful. I am quite confident that if Gregerson had remained in the Cardinals system, he wouldn’t have been given the chance last season to emerge like he did in San Diego. BTW, the jury is still out on him as to whether or not his perceived success is solely a result of PETCO. Check out his extreme home and road splits. Home ERA= 0.65, road ERA=6.48.
I am also a bit concerned that so many relievers are making all the Cardinals prospect lists, ours included.
Good point about Henley, Bw52. At 27-28 years old this coming season, the clock is ticking for Joey Bombs.
Agree we have a 3B shortage (again). I think Carpenter is too early to tell – he wasn’t ranked highly coming out of college and he hasn’t even played a full season yet. I think the brass hopes De La Cruz develops but he’s going a little slower than anticipated already and is at least 4 years away.
Craig might fill Ludwick’s role. I’m really down on Jones. Jones with no power is 4th/ 5th OF type. SHOW ME THE POWER!
Come on Brian, let’s get sabermetric! Gregerson’s FIP away from PETCO was in the 3′s if I remember when I looked it up.
Gregerson also had a distinct 1st half/ 2nd half split — with the 2nd half being better.
The fact that he wouldn’t have gotten a chance means what – that he is less talented? That TLR/DD are stubborn? At a minimum, we should have gotten more than a $6 million bench warmer for him.
A few factoids. Jones was drafted the same day as Rasmus, two rounds later. He is actually a year
olderyounger, yet still has not played above Double-A.On the surface, I don’t hold it against Mo for trying with the Greene trade. We will never know how thorough they checked out the rumors of Greene’s pre-existing emotional problems in San Diego, though. I believe Mo said once that he had no idea. I find that hard to believe since everyone who follows baseball knew of the supposed “locker-punching” that led to Greene’s season-ending hand injury in 2008, refusal of SD to pay him and grievance filed.
Edit: In all fairness, I bought it, too. I went out of my way to meet Greene in spring training and talked to him several times in more than passing. He seemed fine and coupled with him hitting over .400 in spring games, I thought the Cards had made a good deal. It went downhill in a hurry. Can’t win every gamble.
Bw52 – why are you confusing the trade with signing Holliday? We could have signed him for 7/119 without the trade (and probably still have won the division).
Cards have potential replacements coming up thru the system
C-Molina -signed for several years
Pagnozzi-defense okay..bat stinks
Anderson- needs to rebound….still young….needs defensive improvement
1B-Pujols
Hamilton …could be backup when AP needs rest
Craig…..could serve as backup at 1B and 3B with work
Mather….has some talent….health big question
2B-Schumaker…solid
Descalso……question mark
Gotay…..depth and switch-hitter
3B-Freese……..all he has to do is be average
?????
SS-Ryan….solid
Tyler Greene….needs to learn strike zone
Kzma…..still young..can develop
LF-Holliday….his for years
Daryl Jones-Highly ranked………speedy..health?
CF-Rasmus……needs to stay healthy and hit lefties better.still job is his for years unless he comppletely melts down
Jon Jay…….can help
RF-Ludwick..here for a couple of more years unless price dictates trade.
Henley……sleeper
Those are ones off the top of my head …
Bw52, every system has prospects. Not a single one of the names you cite is projected at this point to be a future star. Sure, role players are needed, too, but right now, that is pretty much all the Cardinals have close to the majors. To top it off, the middle levels of the system look pretty sparse, too.
CC hindsight………………………….
TLR wanted Holliday behind AP and he got him.Simple as that..
Brian
who knows who will develop into something special.Pujols was a 13th rd pick.
How many top picks flame out-Brien Taylor LP Yankees,,,,,,,,for example….Matt Bush Padres …
Bw52, or Chris Lambert or Adam Ottavino or Pete Kozma? Time will tell…
If the Cards stay healthy, they should be Ok. My money says one of those guys will turn out to be an all star caliber player – who knows which one though. At a minimum, there are a couple of shumakers there. The problem is that if we have any injuries we have no money left to replenish
“We could have signed him for 7/119 without the trade”.
An argument can be made that we could have signed him for less without the trade.
Depending on where he ended up last year, the market for him this winter may have developed more like the market for Bay. If he wasn’t hitting behind Albert he may not have had the monster second half to erase the memory of Oakland and the ‘Coors Field’ questions. His heroics with the Cards, obvious fit behind Pujols and the Cards obvious determination to re-sign him may have caused the big gap between him and Bay.. Who knows, we may have ended up getting him for 5/80 or something, and had a Wallace/Freese showdown this spring.
CC, regarding money to replenish, I read an interesting take on that recently. I think it was in a Strauss chat. As we know, the party line to support additional 2009 spending in-season was that there was dry powder augmented by increased revenues due to attendance projections being bested. The new twist mentioned was money from insurance payments. Players involved were not named. One might suspect Glaus or maybe Greene. Most of the roster was relatively healthy. I guess I should find it and ask Joe if he knows more…
i thought the insurance reference was to 2008.
I wonder what their attendance projection for 2010 is?
btw, if the insurance reference was to 2008 I can only assume it was Carpenter.
Pretty sure Joe said the dry powder was from attendance above projections in 2009 and insurance payments in 2008.
OK, thanks CC. Reimbursement for 2008 in 2009 would make more sense.
If they have made 2010 attendance projections public, I haven’t seen them. They don’t have the halo effect of the All-Star Game and the economy is still tight, so I would expect them to be conservative. According to Strauss, the Cardinals initially projected 2.9 million attendance last winter before realizing 3.34 million.
At comment 16, Brian seems to state that Darryl Jones is a year older than Colby Rasmus. In fact, Rasmus is 10 to 11 months older than Jones.
I didn’t seem to state it. I stated it. And I was wrong. Got the years 1986 and 1987 backward. Thanks for the correction and apologies to Jones backers.
here is the insurance reference from Strauss (it was 2008).
Joe Strauss: The club would adamantly disagree, but I see $110 million as workable. Bill DeWitt III insists five-year projections never have payroll reaching that threshold. (The Cardinals did finish 2008 at $110 million but pointed to insurance reimbursements as partly responsible for the added flexibility.)
OK, so it was 2008 insurance money against 2008 payroll then. Thanks for looking it up, CC.
The Cardinals system IMO wasn’t overrated in 2009 but maybe they overpaid with a couple of the trades.
But if the only way Mo could get DeRosa was to give up two RH relievers then that is what had to happen. Unfortunately with the torn tendon sheath on DeRosa , Cleveland “wins” that trade .
Likewise in hindsight the Khalil/Gregorson/Worrell trade wasn’t good but at the time it was a good shot giving up little to get possibly a decent shortstop.
No complaints from me on the Holliday trade, if Wallace turns into a Lyle Overbay I would say no big loss and I really doubt Wallace is going to be as good as Overbay , who is somewhat mediocre.
I’m still surprised that Anthopolous flipped Michael Taylor for Wallace, but the Jays wanted to draft Wallace in 2008 so they must see more of a need at 1b/dh than they do in the outfield.
The Cardinals system has been panned in the past but when you look at Pujols,Molina, Rasmus, and Ryan coming from the system–all good fielders, plus plus bat to good bat to average bat with improvement coming (Ryan and Rasmus are going to hit better i believe) along with Schumaker improving it seems like a decent system. Granted the weak Central Division helps
the Cards compete.
I agree there is only one superstar that has come out of the system and there aren’t many starting pitchers above #3-5 types.
It will be interesting to see how Shelby Miller and Jaime Garcia develop the next couple years.
I think I remember $50 as the figure used for extra revenue per extra attendee. The 09 attendance was 440,000 over projection which comes to $22M revenue above projection. So BDW must have put a good bit in his pocket even with paying pro-rated salaries to the new guys. If 2010 attendance is similar, $110M would be easily covered.
If Albert is signed for $30M per tomorrow, that would be $14M per more than he’s getting now. If the Cards are at $95M now, that would become $109M. So if $110M is the real, and unspoken target, there is not much dry powder, if any.
Another data point. BDWIII said player salaries are roughly 50 percent of the team’s expenses.
I had been hoping the Cards might still pick up Lopez or Wang, but that would really push it. If there is a mid-season need. If attendance drops by 100,000 ($5M). That would mess up the numbers for trying to sign Albert. BDW probbly won’t cut it that close. 2010 might be a good year for Cards prospects hoping for their big break.
I’m not sure what you’re getting t with the 50% thing, Brian.
I don’t buy the $50 a head revenue figure for the team. First, my guess is that the last tickets sold are below the avg price of $30 as the higher priced tickets are mostly gone to season ticket holders and reserved seating. 2nd, concessions are contracted I believe. Not sure if it is flat fee or flat fee plus a % but in either case the Cards don’t see all of that. Parking money was made a long time ago when Dewitt et al sold the parking garages. I’m assuming the Cards get little parking money. Souvenir money has to be split among the product, the vendor, and possibly even other major league teams. Some money there but not a lot.
Does major league baseball divide attendance revenue between the home team and the visiting team?
I wasn’t trying to get to anything. Like I said, it is just a factoid. One has to consider expense along with revenue.
Personally, I don’t get deep into trying to construct/deconstruct team expenses and revenues because there are too many unknowns. I have seen some try to take assumptions times assumptions divided by guesstimates down to the third decimal…
I could see the Cards making an offer to Felipe Lopez. He could be the starter at 2B, liberating Schumaker to return to the OF, or at 3B, with Freese as backup. Lopez would provide another left swing, to supplement Rasmus and Skip. Lopez could even play OF on a limited basis, to provide TLR with flexibility.
I dont see a reason to add a 5th veteran starting pitcher, like Smoltz or Wang. We already have Wainwright, Carpenter, Penny, and Lohse. That’s an impessive group. We also have business reasons to want to cultivate some home grown talent. And we have guys who have some starting experience at AAA: Garcia, Boggs, Walters, Ottavino, with Lynn coming up behind them. Though McClellan and Hawksworth are sometimes mentioned as starting pitching possibilities, I am skeptical this will happen. But Garcia and Boggs are ready now as 5th starter candidates. If any starting pitchers suffer injuries during 2010, then Walters, Ottavino, or Lynn could bump up from AAA.
I forget the Cards’ corporate long-term goal about rookies per year, was it an average of 5? Garcia, Boggs, Freese, Craig, Gotay, Greene, Jay, Walters, Ottavino, even Anderson seem plausible possibilities to contribute in the majors during part or all of 2010, if there were a suitable roster opening. In other words, who is available at AAAA is another factor that can influence budgeting for 2010.
It will be interesting to watch teams like Pittsburgh and Washington etc; this year. Working from revenue sharing funds to fish the dead pool instead of a minor league system, is it more cost effective than paying for overpriced draft picks, which is always hit and miss?
It would be interesting to know what it costs to run the farm system and everything else that goes into finding and developing talent. Then compare that to what it would cost to just hire major league ready guys and veterans. You could start each November with no players at all, no minor league or scouting expenses and $60 or $65M and just hire a team that would be as good as some of the worst teams. If you had started after Jan., 1 this winter, you could have put together a team tht could win 70 games, which would be better than about a half dozon teams and equal to the Mets. Maybe you could do a lot better.
Jumbo, with or without Lopez, Skip will be the second baseman. Period. An untimely disablement of either he or TLR would seem to be the only way that might change.
You forgot to mention Rich Hill in your pitching analysis…
I disagree about another veteran pitcher Jumbo. As to what we can count on, there is Carp and Wainy, and there is Franklin and Miller. Thats it. Maybe Penny stays healthy, at least for a while, and maybe he will be good. Same for Lohse. As to the pen, all the young arms have demonstrated the ability to be mediocre, and to wilt under pressure. The AAA guys, who knows? With a bit of bad luck, the staff could be a trainwreck by May1st.
Rich Hill’s name could have been included, but he is no big deal and my point was one of allowing upward movement from the farm system, while Hill already is a veteran. Teams need to have more players than roster slots, to accommodate the probability of some injuries.
BB, Lohse has been in the majors about 8 years. He got hit with a pitch last summer, so had much more downtime than during his career. He is pretty durable overall, less risky than Carpenter’s nervous system vulnerability. Penny seems to be sound again.
Every pitcher is always just one pitch away from injury. Pitchers tend to be higher risk than batters, in terms of durability. But 4 veteran starting pitchers is a relatively solid foundation from which to begin a season.
Lastly, the Cards have hinted that all their costs in addition to ML salaries are about $100MM. This would include amateur signing bonuses, running a minor league system, advertising, lawyers, medical, scouts, and lots more stuff.
BB, I cannot agree with the broad claim “all the young arms have demonstrated an ability to be mediocre.”
Boggs may serve fine as a setup guy. He can throw 96 in short stints as a reliever. This is why Duncan preferred Boggs to Wellemeyer and Thompson for the Dodgers series. Whether Boggs has enough pitchers to be a consistent starter, I dont know. This is a decision for Dave Duncan.
Garcia has fine stuff, though there may be questions about long-term durability. He was overpowering in the AAA playoffs. He might do well as the 5th starter.
Walters has 2 years at AAA. This would be a good year for him to lift his game and excel at AAA, to earn a chance in the majors. He cut down on HRs last year. Can he improve again? Ottavino has ML arm and frame. He improved during 2009 at AAA. If he builds on that and improves again in 2010, he could earn a chance in the majors. Neither guy is a cinch, but both could enjoy success, with determination and luck.
I didn’t mean they all stink Jumbo. I should have added that with a little good luck the rotation will be excellent and a couple young arms will emerge as top notch. I had mentioned Wang because he’s a ground ball guy like Piniero and will offer high possible upside for cheap. He may stink too, though.
The Cards replaced Pineiro by shelling out $7.5MM for Penny. So we have taken care of the 3rd spot in the rotation. Hill is unglitzy. He can be in the mix for 5th starter, along with Garcia, Boggs, and Walters. We fans may like to think of adding Smoltz or Wang, but the Cards may want another position player and to retain some dry powder.
Hill’s wildness will concern release point issues due to pain and stress avoidance. I really doubt Dave and Tony were asked about this signing. I read somewhere Lohse and Mulder are catch buddy’s. Rumor was that Mulder has no future and Lohse is breaking up allot of scare tissue from the bleeding that happed from being hit while on anti-inflams. Another miss by the Cards medical staff. I will look for that article.
year to year the rankings differ, but the starters on the 25man show the results of our farm as a positive.
six of the eight starting fielders will have debuted with stl if freese starts at 3B. only matt and ludwick were acquired as FA’s. five are drafted by stl.
the pen could include three of mcclellan, hawksworth, motte, garcia and boggs, if hill and jukich stick, or a remote chance of five drafted by stl.
the bench could include craig w/two spots open after la rue and lugo.
i can see the possibility of at least 10-11 drafted players on the 25man without counting wainwright and freese. yes, the graduation rate has effected the farm rankings.
Been seeing a lot of guys DFA’d, anything good?