The St. Louis Cardinals wouldn’t have to wait until their arbitration cases are settled to make their next move, but they may have good reasons for doing so.
Here in mid-January, the St. Louis Cardinals payroll management strategy for 2010 still remains under question.
One milestone occurred in early December when during a presentation at Webster University, team president Bill DeWitt III hinted his club might not spend up to their total player budget, expected to be around $100 million.
“Clubs have a tendency — and we’ve been guilty in the past — of putting every resource into the team in the offseason. That just doesn’t leave you any flexibility,” DeWitt III said.
Showing restraint would be a repeat of an approach that was widely ridiculed during the previous winter. The term “keeping powder dry” in reference to holding back money was first coined by his father, team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr.
As we saw in 2009, if game attendance exceeds the Cardinals planning numbers, they could also choose to apply additional financial resources to players. Some combination of “dry powder” plus new expense money opened the door to trade for and take on the salaries of Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday in June and July, respectively.
About ten days ago, back on January 7, as the club digested the Holliday re-signing, general manager John Mozeliak was quoted as saying the following:
“[Assistant GM John] Abbamondi, myself, Jeff [Luhnow, scouting director and farm director] and the group will sit down tomorrow. I’ll then also get with Tony [La Russa, manager] over the weekend and we’ll kind of prioritize what we think, if we had a bullet to use, what would we use it on. Once we get to that point, then we’ll look at what’s out there and how to use that resource if it’s there. We may stand pat. But we’ll see.”
In the process, Mozeliak outlined the two primary outcomes for some or all of the remaining budget – either acquire one additional significant player using their so-called “bullet”, keep dry powder or perhaps a combination of the two.
How much money are we talking about?
The Post-Dispatch offered a graphical summary following Holliday’s re-signing. In it, they suggest the Cardinals will have $7.4 million remaining to spend. One of the few assumptions required was an estimation of the 2010 salaries of arbitration-eligible players Skip Schumaker and Ryan Ludwick.
Though Schumaker is hinting he is close to coming to terms, completely resolving both players’ 2010 salaries may not be happening soon. At Winter Warm-Up, Mozeliak said the Cardinals would like the contracts of both Schumaker and Ludwick completed before his club dips back into the free-agent pool.
This sequencing doesn’t completely hold together to me.
In his first season of arbitration eligibility, Schumaker should be the easier of the two to sign. The real question is how big of a raise Ludwick is looking for coming off a season in which he made $3.7 million, but delivered declining results compared to 2008.
(For my detailed views of how comparable players’ salaries might be applied, The Cardinal Nation subscribers can read my January 7 article, “How Much Will Schumaker and Ludwick Make?”. At the low end, I have the two coming in at $6.9 million combined, while the P-D estimates they will make $8.5 million in total when all is said and done.)
Here’s my concern. The Cardinals surely have a planning bandwidth for the two arbitration cases and would seem to be position to have at least $6 million remaining once the two arbitration deals are done. (This assumes the Post-Dispatch estimates for the two will turn out to be $1.4 million too low, which I strongly doubt is the case.)
Both sides will formally know how far they are apart on Tuesday, when club and player arbitration amounts must be filed. Though the parties could come to terms at any time, if disagreement remains, the conclusion could drag on until a hearing scheduled as late as the third week in February – the time pitchers and catchers are due to report for spring training.
Again, either way, with conservatively $6 million or more in their chest, why would they be waiting, unless they are planning to save dry powder?
The P-D reports the Cardinals have been in contact with pitcher John Smoltz’ agent but they would like the veteran to wait for a potential offer until they have a better feel for their payroll. The paper has been in contact with the future Hall-of-Famer, who says he has heard nothing substantive from the Cardinals. Smoltz went on to say that while he would like to return to St. Louis, he is preparing to move on.
At 43 years old next season, Smoltz offers at least as an intriguing relief alternative as he would be a fifth starter. His likely contract would include a base deal of several million dollars with incentives for several more, seemingly within the amount of money the Cardinals have remaining.
High on the list of other possible options could include a right-handed hitting outfield reserve who could spell Colby Rasmus in centerfield and veteran depth at third base behind untested starter David Freese.
There is one other possibility for waiting – the knowledge that as spring training nears, prices for the remaining unsigned free agents will go down. Though Mozeliak isn’t saying it, using some of that dry powder over the next six weeks wouldn’t necessarily keep them from gaining and deploying more later.
Even if the Cardinals decide not to make another significant signing this winter, they have already done enough to position themselves as National League Central Division favorites for 2010. Without immediate additional spending, not everyone will be content, however. The annual resurrection of the “DeWallet” loonies, armchair critics of ownership’s player payrolls, is quite possible if the Cardinals head into the season with a mid-$90 million payroll. Instead of applauding player development and efficient spending, the simplistic minds of the habitual complainers can only compare annual bottom lines.
After last year, I have become a believer that if the Cardinals need help during the season and they play well enough to deserve it, ownership will come through. In the meantime, the primary pressure should be on the players and coaches to win.
I agree with you Brian that their rhetoric just doesn’t hold water. Not only do they know the band width for Shu and Ludwick, they’ve known since at least the end of the season if not earlier. And what happened to “we plan on re-signing Holliday AND Derosa? Holliday certainly did cost much more than they planned — where is the money that was for Derosa?
My complaint is not with the money they are or are not spending, it is with their continued specious statements to the public.
That should be “…Holliday didn’t cost more than they planned..”
Maybe they spent more on Penny than they had figured on for a 4th starter. That could be some of the DeRo money.
The FA list is still huge, although I don’t know if its larger than usual. Other than premium guys, which I don’t think we are talking about anyway, plenty should be there still in mid-February, and even after start of spring training.
I wonder if Edmonds and Tony were trying to get media and fans to focus on something besides Mac with the comeback-play for free- banter at the Arf thing Sunday? Couldn’t really be serious could it? Cards are doing a great job of staying in the news this winter.
The Holliday-DeRosa point is a good one as Holliday received more years than expected, but his 2010 salary couldn’t have been far out of line with the team’s assumptions coming in. Still, I don’t normally get too riled up over these kinds of comments as negotiating and opinion-influencing can often occur via the press. Though I can see if folks accept every word at face value, they could end up being disappointed. In addition, assumptions can change. By saying right now they aren’t in what already looks to be a buyers’ market, they could be using that as a way to wait out free agent prices dropping further. Even if he is bargain-shopping, Mo isn’t likely to want to say that publicly, so he conveniently uses the pending arbitration cases to bide his time.
Of all the ‘needs’ that still remain, the one that doesn’t seem to have any stop-gap solution is what happens if Colby goes down for a couple weeks.
One short-term option would be to slide Ludwick over. Another is to move Skip out there. Based on the current construction of the club, I think Jon Jay is in a good position to make the team with a strong spring as none of the other primary outfield candidates (Craig, Mather, Stavinoha) can handle center. Shane Robinson can also play the position and has the advantage of hitting right-handed, but I don’t think he has demonstrated a major league bat.
Well, at least Tony doesn’t have any realistic way to sit Colby very much. Perhaps that is intended. Might be best to just keep some dry powder for that.
We are up to our ears in marginal left fielders, AAAA guys in other words. I can’t see them clogging up Memhpis roster for ever. At the WWU Q & A Mo said to look at AA roster this year for the ML prospects, so maybe the club sees it the same way. I saw a few people kind of sit up straighter at that comment, but have seen nothing at all about it in the media. Struck me as a surprising admission.
Yes, I heard the comment, too, and wondered who he meant. Even if Jones stays, which I think he should for at least part of the season even without the logjam ahead of him, Sanchez and Lynn will surely move up, so who else is left in Springfield? Not exactly like Palm Beach had a bunch of over-achievers last year. Richard Castillo is one possible name, but he is hardly a sure thing. Nick Additon? No way are Miller and Stock are ready for A-Advanced, let alone Double-A, so I really don’t understand the remark. Maybe Mo is trying to fan some embers…
1. Mo continued his talking about both signing both Holliday and Derosa after Penny was signed.
2. Brian, I hope you are not implying that I believe everything (or anything!) they say. But if I was Joe 6-pack and a little less informed I would consider them bold face liars!
3. I think there are lots of bargains to be found. I have no trouble waiting to see what falls into our lap. One nice thing is I think we are in a situation where we could improve this team by going several different ways (OF, reliever, starter, even IF) but have no desperate need anywhere. This will allow us tomove in whatever direction the bargain appears.
4. I do worry about CF depth. How good is Ludwick out there? I know he doesn’t have the spped one normally expects from a CF.
5. I haven’t take the Edmonds talk seriously to date but if Edmonds would really attempt a comeback for the minimum, I’d take a flyer.,
6. LH hitting off the bench also seems in short supply – another plus for Jay, also helps Gotay’s chances but you’d like some LH power as well.
CC,
2. No, the comment was not directed at you personally, but was a more general statement. The card-carrying members of the DeWallet mob also tend to be ones who seem to get most hung up over “being lied to”. Generally, people need to be less naive and have better BS meters!
4. The original question had to do with a short term outage for Rasmus. I think Ludwick is more of an emergency fill-in than a true CF reserve. That role still needs to be filled, IMHO.
In hindsight, I see the Holliday and DeRo talk as just an attempt to keep DeRo on the hook as a plan B as long as possible. Once it became obvious no real efforts to engage DeRo would be made until the MH thing was resolved one way or another, most people I think saw it for what it was.
Good point that Mo’s comment could be a ‘sink or swim time’ message to some Memphis guys.
The ‘DeWallet’ crowd is reeling from their worldview being crushed by the MH signing. My guess is once the season gets under way it will be the same thing all over again regarding Albert. It is important to remember that they might be right next time. Just because Westy and others who shared his views about BDW were tripped up on the MH thing doesn’t mean that BDW is now willing to sacrifice profit for…anything. Just as shifting economic and market conditions probably subdued the big spenders and made it possible for the Cards to snag MH, those same shifting conditions might end up conspiring against us. All that has to happen is for the signing of Albert to project out as a bigger hit to the bottom line than not signing him, and it is really quite impossible to know how that will play out. So I would consider positions on one side of that issue as legit as those on the other.
there is a backup CF concern, backup 3B and backup closer too, but these are not concerns that need to be addressed today. shopping for backups, as bargains now or later, seems resourceful with the overall budget in mind.
Mo signed lohse during mid-march, when lohse first became a cardinal. there were questions about pineiro’s readiness for the opening week and beyond, and a depth of rotation concern for the season. those late budget $ were very well spent on lohse, for much less than he was asking earlier that offseason.
with Mo’s late acquisition track record, and the orgs willingness to spend $ in 09 before the deadline, i’ll be content with sitting back and letting the FO do their job, as they see fit.
Welcome, bip. I agree.
bb, I wasn’t firing at WC about DeWallet. Being totally honest, he didn’t even cross my mind. To me that term represents a much broader community of “the sky is falling” (or should I say “the sky will be falling” individuals) that I have seen all over the net for at least the last ten or 15 years. It began back when the team was first sold and these people were sure the club would be sold again after five years. That was a decade ago. Many of WC’s ideas about ownership are more out there and to be honest, I often don’t even understand them, so I let them pass as interesting discussion fodder for some.
I am a big bottom line guy and seeing nine winning seasons and seven playoff appearances over the last decade, I give credit to ownership for having done a good job.
I am of the opinion that the best use of that money is to wait and see what becomes available at the deadline. I am anxious to see how the Garcia/Hawksworth/Walters/MacClellan combo plays out for the #5 starter, and want to see Freese get a real shot at 3rd and Craig and Jay get a shot as 4th and 5th outfielders. If the Cardinals are going to invest a large percentage of their payroll on two players, then it is imperative that they get good performance from their farm system. The bottom line there, is that at least 1 and preferably 2 players graduate annually to the bigs and make an impact. That results in (looking forward) 4 to 8 players on the 25 man making around league minimum. Currently that list includes Rasmus, Motte, K-Mac, and Hawk from last year, and will hopefully add Garcia, Freese, and at least Craig this year. Plus, Lugo, which is an oddball case anyway.
It is easy to forget that just staying as successful as the Cards have been from one year to the next is evidence of a good job by the FO. The tendency is to think that not doing better from one year to the next is a failure. I’m guilty of that and will be the first to complain if we don’t take the pennant this year. And no, I don’t want to hear about the vile Phillies giving us a run and all than nonsense.
Holy Cow! Let’s hope Dustin Mattison’s summary of Albert’s statememt is wrong somehow. In the WWU 3rd Day article Dustin says Albert says he wants to finish up a Cardinal, ” . . but will not negotiate a new contract during the season”. In light of the 5/10 issues, and what the Cards planned time frame is believed to be, and Albert’s stated reasons for putting it off (wanted Cards to focus on MH, wanted proof of commitment to win) this would be a very major development, and not good.
“He still wants to finish his career as the Cardinal but will not negotiate a new contract during the season. “El Hombre” will be focused on baseball and wants no distractions. More from Pujols later this evening. ” (quote from article)
But I tell you: When the season starts we’re not talking about it.
I can’t speak to it,” Pujols said. “It’s a commitment the Cardinals organization will have to make.”
If it comes to that, it’s fine. That’s a decision they make,” Pujols said before sitting for a two-hour autograph session at the downtown Hyatt. “If it happens, I have to deal with it. I want to play baseball. If I have to, I can play somewhere else.”
He’s serious about wanting it,” La Russa said. “Out of respect, we’ll give him a serious discussion.”
What exactly don’t you understand, Brian………………………………..it would appear that there are a number of folks using tried and true pressure techniques to effect ownership. Apparently they are expressing an opinion on your topic. Ya think?
Tony won’t subject Shu to a Kennedy competition……….. but he thinks BD is going to let Edmond’s destroy his poster boy………..????????? Right………if thats not a rhetorical pressure move, what else is he thinking……… He’s trying to get that money spent. …….Sounds a little like Albert might have a little attitude………………I have told you why……..believe what you want.
That gives the Cardinals 2.5 months to negotiate so why is his statement an issue? More importantly, he reportedly said he’d take a discount!
http://www.globe-democrat.com/news/2010/jan/18/mondays-autograph-schedule-cardinals-winter-warm-/
The Globe story has a different feel than the Post version, which does not mention a discount. Reader comments are very critical in the latter. It may be that Rains heard something Strauss didn’t. I doubt it is a plot to cause more fan FUD.
Speaking of which, ever since Holliday was signed, I have said the time for the Cards to push to get a deal done with Albert is now. All today’s news does is reinforce that.
First baseman Albert Pujols said Monday that he would be willing to take a “discount” in a contract extension with the Cardinals “if it will make our organization better.”?????????????
He is pumping management, as I’m suggesting. Kind of interesting how that aspect of the interview escaped the PD writers………………kind of……….
The first time Albert speaks since the Birmingham trip……….and Joe Strauss didn’t here it?
Derrick Goold also briefly mentions a discount in this article.
Notice how cleverly Albert specified the point at which you might begin evaluating his discount, and how he would expect the team to use said savings? If they want the 10yr deal….he is going to start discounting from 300 million. He will go down to 250 but he will want accountability for that money…………..they will never go for that.
The real point is………..try to deal with this……….. the Saud’s have decided to surface. They are going around the off shore blockade straight through the front door at this point………………………… BD3 says the Cardinals might like the Bond market soon for Cardinal Village. ……… This likely had an influence in the Holiday deal…………at any cost. Pujols is working for position…….BD is working for position. To what extent they have similar goals is still unclear………………….but Albert isn’t going to be Sh-t on by the teams media machine if they have indeed decided to part ways. His value wherever, is going to be decided by this relationship. They are fighting over about 70/80 million I’d guess. Tony/Albert both attacking through the fan base should be evident to everyone here by now.
CC, I’m pretty sure the FO was thinking they had about 9 months to sign Albert before 5/10 time. If so, they just got an attitude adjustment. They have 2 1/2 months to sign him, and failing that, 6 1/2 months to decide whether or not to trade him before the next negotiating window opens, at which time he’ll be a 5/10 guy. It’s possible that the FO already knew Albert’s position on it. But either way, Albert chose to make it public, thereby bringing fan and media pressure to bear. After all the focus on MH and MM and TLR lately, it could be Albert’s way of re-focusing attention where it belongs, on the center of the cardinal nation universe.
See if you recognize any names or pretense.
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=9584104
http://suqalmal.blogspot.com/2010/01/kingdom-holding-company-issues-press.html
http://prophecybeyond.ning.com/forum/topics/saudi-prince-to-citibank-ceo?xg_source=activity
http://www.livemint.com/2010/01/10211511/Saudi-prince8217s-plan-show.html
While another outfielder and third baseman would be nice, I’d be most happy to see the Cards sign another solid right hander to work in the pen.
Er, but yeah, waiting for prices to drop even further seems very reasonable to me. There are a lot of decent players still out there, for sure.
Westy, just for future reference, I hate reading about multi-gazillionairre bank stockholders whose ass was saved with my money, and my kids money, and their kids money, etc, etc. And no, I don’t want to think about who some of those guys are, I’m pretty sure I know. I’m sure you’re all tore up. By the way, what’s the line on where Albert signs, anybody know?!
Its about developing new avenues for moving resources BB, thats all.
The Cardinals and Ryan Ludwick agreed to terms on a one-year, $5.45 million deal: link
Luddy will be making more than Wainy, and Penny will be making more than either of them. That’s funny.
Such is the power of free agency.
Not gloating here. Just wanted to note for the record that my projection for Ludwick+Skip was an admittedly-low $6.9 million. Actual is $7.45 million. The P-D estimate was $8.5 million. Always good to loop back and see how accurate these were…
Ironically though if Shumaker had won his arb case — and based on your great analysis I think he would have — The PD would have been closer overall.
Fair point. But they didn’t, so they aren’t. A win is a win!
I really had a hard time getting comps that aligned with Ludwick other than Xavier Nady (2008′s version). I think the Twins are getting a really good deal with Jason Kubel at $4.1M this year, for example. If Jayson Werth has a nice season at a $7 million salary this year, that could be a mark for Ludwick next year. The one big difference is that Werth is one year ahead of Ludwick in service time, so this is his first free agent eligible year…
But as a 6th year arb, Ludwick comps with FA’s as well, correct?
One year from now, Ludwick will be at 5.109, short of FA eligibility. That really narrows the bandwidth of good comps. Werth in 2010 would not qualify.
Brian, you didn’t understand my question but I think I found the answer.
If I understand your question correctly, the simple answer is ‘no’.
I believe you are correct. 1st and 2nd year arb’s can be compared to players with a year more than their service time. I was thinking 3rd year arb’s could also (that universe would include FA’s) but I was wrong.