Why the conditions may be right for the St. Louis Cardinals to move to lock up Albert Pujols.
FUD.
Ever hear the term? Fear. Uncertainty. Doubt.
St. Louis Cardinals fans have lived under a haze of FUD almost from the moment general manager John Mozeliak announced the acquisition of outfielder Matt Holliday on July 24 without having agreement on a contract extension for the then-free agent to be. It required almost six long months to get a deal done, which was finally announced on Tuesday.
Instead of celebrating the huge signing, one which makes the Cardinals the clear National League Central Division frontrunner and top challenger to the League Champion Phillies, many in the mainstream media couldn’t wait even 24 hours to start shoveling more FUD.
Though far from alone, one example is Yahoo’s Jeff Passan, who kicked off our unwanted sentence of another seven years of terrible Holliday-Holiday puns with his article entitled, “Cardinals’ short-lived Holliday celebration”. The side dish is a table with the pun-ishing heading “Card sharks”.
I can summarize the entire article and the reactions of many others with this single-sentence excerpt:
“If Matt Holliday costs $120 million, what on earth does that make Albert Pujols worth?”
Here’s the deal.
Even if Holliday had never been born on January 15, 1980, one day before Pujols, Albert would still be recognized as the best player in the game today. Holliday’s contract did nothing, zero, nada, zilch to increase Pujols’ value. It was already far more than either $120 million or $17 million annually.
FUD alert!
While Holliday scored a nice contract, do you have any idea how many other Major League Players currently make more than his $17 million per year? How many others have a deal greater than $120 million in total?
Give up? The answer is 14 and 11, respectively.
Might some of their deals be a better gauge of the top end of baseball’s pay scale than Holliday’s?
I know. That would blow the whole theme of part two of the FUD story – where the poor bumbling Cardinals awaken one day from their deep slumber only to see “Pujols standing next to Hal Steinbrenner or John Henry or Arte Moreno, flashing his teeth and holding up a new jersey,” as Passan suggests.
The author may be a former understudy of a player agent, as he spins a yarn suggesting Pujols’ new salary might somehow be tied to the on-paper increase of the value of his franchise or club revenue growth.
Let’s get real. The Cardinals wouldn’t have anted up for Holliday if they didn’t believe they could sign Pujols. The former is a very good player, but the latter is the face of the franchise. This ownership group knows what they are doing.
So, what might it take?
Realistically, putting aside Alex Rodriguez’ re-negotiation of his Texas Rangers contract which pays him $27.5 million per year, his Yankees teammate Mark Teixeira and Dodger Manny Ramirez are the highest-paid position players in terms of annual salary at $22.5 million each.
Given the downturn in the economy, should it take more than $25-$28 million per? That would be between $8 and $11 million per year more than Holliday. If Pujols wants seven or eight years like Holliday, give it to him. $175-$224 million is a wide enough bandwidth to work within. Even at $175M, only A-Rod ($275M), Derek Jeter ($189M) and Teixeira ($180M) have bigger deals.
In my opinion, the time for the Cardinals to push ahead with a substantive offer to Pujols is now. In the Thursday Post-Dispatch, Mozeliak was asked about this, but offered a reply that was far too passive for my tastes.
“If he (Pujols) and his representatives want to engage, we’re ready,” Mozeliak said.
Some are concerned with the idea that Pujols might feel disrespected by Holliday making more than him over the next two seasons, the remaining term on his current seven-year, $100 million contract. A way to quickly address that potential concern is to approach Pujols now about re-negotiating the next two years as part of his extension. Even if he turns the initiative down, he knows the team put forth the effort.
With the signing of Holliday, the Cardinals have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt their commitment to spend. Being as sensitive as he is, Pujols would not want to be painted as the bad guy by turning away a mega-deal from the club, especially after having made such a point in the past about wanting to see ownership commit to fielding a competitive team around him.
Ownership has done their part. Now it is Pujols’ turn.
Yet, forcing Pujols’ next step is not without risk. If he makes it clear that he wants a record-breaking, unprecedented, beat-A-Rod contract, his greed would be exposed. It might also punch his ticket out of town, an unthinkable idea to many.
While I don’t expect this to happen, if for some reason the Cardinals receive signals that crush their optimism over keeping Pujols, by acting now, they would still have time to consider how best to deal him. Waiting means the potential of receiving only a measly pair of future draft picks in return for the game’s best player if he reaches free agency.
At the end of the 2010 season, Pujols will receive full no-trade protection as he completes his tenth year as a major leaguer, the last five years with the same team. Realistically, that leaves the 2010 trade deadline as the best trade-no-trade target decision date.
By getting the ball rolling now, the Cardinals will put the pressure on Pujols to declare his hand. Even if Pujols really isn’t ready, both sides will have a much better idea where they stand.
Could they wait? Of course, they could. Pujols still has two years remaining on his current contract. Yet given Albert’s consistent success, how would his asking price go down in the future?
(I will pick up the remainder of the story here in an upcoming post.)
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I fully suspect that Moz has been in near continuous contact with Pujol’s agents. They may already be working on the extension. Or maybe Pujols is delaying. I don’t know how wise it would be to press Pujols by making it public that they want to do an extension soon.
Brian, you have been consistent that Albert’s asking price seemingly has no where to go but up. I would argue that it already has dropped slightly this off season. The value he could have extracted from the Cardinal’s right at the end of 2009 would have been higher than now because 1) Holliday proved the market is soft for top tier guys 2) Holliday’s signing reduces the money available for Albert (the Cards would deny but I have little doubt) 3) The Holliday signing gives the Cards a little more leverage with regard to letting Albert walk if necessary.
Another potential value reducer for Albert would be Boston trading for and locking up Gonzalez long term. With both Boston and NYY seemingly set at 1B the chance of a bidding war gets highly reduced.
There is of course the elbow as well. If it goes out this season he probably has time to recover his value if he can show he is rehabbed. If he hurts it in 2011 it is a great value reducer. Potential recurring of an injury is something that wasn’t a concern with Rodriguez.
Yes, there are adantages for parties to get a deal done now.
Just call me a FUD spreader!
It is true the newsmedia is now spinning a lot of FUD about the difficulty of re-signing Pujols. FUD can be the stock in trade of many.
Some other parts of this story above, I would not agree with.
The Cards have just shown they can be very patient in working with a player and his agent, ending up with a mutual happy agreement. Brian used to argue Boras always took free agents to new teams, but this has not happenned with Lohse and now Holliday. Why? Because the Cards will selectively choose when to pay a high market price. They can do so again with Albert. They have the money.
Albert has a tough agent from Beverly Hills. This agent is every bit as tough as Boras. But if the Cards can selectively sign Boras clients, they can also re-sign Pujols. It can be done.
If the Beverly Hills agent holds out, does this make Pujols “greedy”? No more “greedy” than any other baseball player or agent. Maybe players just want a fair deal and are not greedy at all.
Should the Cards trade Pujols if he does not soon re-sign? NO. This would be monstrous. The Cards did not trade Musial, Gibson, Brock. They should not trade Pujols either. They should respect him, just as Pujols has respected the uniform. The Cards should make him a fair offer, reflecting his wonderful career. And work patiently with his agent, just as they did with Boras on Holliday. Just because a player wishes to be respected and paid a fair salary for his contributions does not mean he is “greedy. ”
However, if after 2011, Pujols elects to go elsewhere, then we can collect two draft picks. Its better to have one or two more years of Pujols adding to the record books as a Cardinal than to trade him away.
Jumbo, for the record, I only used the word “greed” only to characterize a potential situation where Pujols might demand more than A-Rod, and in that context, I firmly stand behind it. Two wrongs would not make a right.
CC, good points about Boston and New York tying up first base. Seems unlikely either would spend that much on a designated hitter, but it isn’t impossible. The Yankees sort of did it with Giambi. Also, I would not put it past the Red Sox to move Gonzalez out (if they get him and sign him to a long-term deal) for a chance to acquire a once-in-a-lifetime talent like Pujols. The baseball landscape is littered with players that Boston once loved only to reject later.
In addition, because of Pujols’ uniqueness, I would not be surprised to see dark horse teams willing to bid big money on Albert if he became available. Before A-Rod became a free agent, who would have thought the Rangers would become the high bidder?
One feature of competitive marketplaces is they can go up and down, through time. In the case of baseball, the marketplace for salaries can be influenced by the changing state of the economy and by salaries for comparable players. Holliday might have received a bigger contract a few years ago, now he is probably crimped by the sorry economy.
Something that I stand firmly behind is not considering Pujols (including his agent) to be greedy, under any context. He wants to play for a competitive team. And he wants to get a fair salary, commensurate with his worth, at the time of his free agency. This salary may be lower than Alex Rodriguez, but it could also be higher. If Albert aims higher, this is not intrinsically greedy, IMHO.
Mo and BDW proved unable to get a big star to sign for less than market value. That’s not a good sign. The joys of living and playing in St. Louis proved insufficiant to get a hometown discount. Not good. Haven’t heard Albert’s enthusiastic reaction to the signing yet. Not good. The market has proven weak for top end guys so Albert might decide it will be better in two years. Not good. On the other side, BDW proved he will pay market rate for what he wants.
Gonzalez, Texeira, and Pujols are all fien glove men at first – it is hard to imagine any of them settling for a DH role.
The landscape is not littered with players Boston loved and then rejected – only the Cardinal’s roster is
An interesting turn to the Pujols contract is that the collective bargaining agreement expires in Dec of 2011. I believe in the past (not positive) the teams and the union have agreed to a moratorium on new contracts after the seasons where the cba expires until a new agreement is reached. Will this affect the Pujols negotiations?
Jumbo says we should take our 2 draft picks and be happy ( i disagree) but there are lots of rumors that the draft pick compensation may go away in the new CBA. We might not even get draft picks.
Pujols was just a 13th rounder, Keith Hernandez another good 1Bman signed by the Cards from amateur ranks was selected in about the 42nd. If we got a first and second rounder for Pujols, if he jumps ship, so be it.
Now I can also understand Carioca’s viewpoint. And teams do sometimes feel they have to trade stars, like Sabathia or the southpaw the Mets got from the Twins.
But in the long-term, history is not going to remember the names of guys landed for Pujols. I happen to remember Rick Ownby and Neil Allen for Hernandez because they were so inadequate to make up for his loss.
I suspect DeWitt values the Cardinals enough that he will not wish to be always remembered as the owner who traded Pujols. Who did the Red Sox get for unloading Babe Ruth on the Yankees? Players like Pujols do not come around very often, so it is a terrible thing to have to give one up. The Cards can afford to give Pujols a very strong offer, despite all the complaints from fans that DeWitt is cheap. By watching their budget, they have planned-in mega-bucks for Pujols. They have invested big bucks in Holliday too to give Albert some help. The Cards need to be patient and respectful and see if a deal can be found.
I am not advocating a trade, only to not rule out the possibility and prepare for all alternatives. If handled properly, it is not disrespectful, it is smart business.
History is full of very good trades and very bad trades. How about prospects Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Lee Stevens for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew?
The Indians outwitted Omar on the Colon deal. However, without looking up Colon’s career stats, he was a strong pitcher for some years, but I doubt he is a historically important player. For this franchise, trading Pujols would be like trading Musial or Gibson.
Stan and Gibby did not enjoy the earned right of free agency, so their careers were legally owned and their earning power much lower. They did not have to be traded.
DeWitt is not going to trade Albert unless there are really strong reasons to do so. Matt Holliday says he expects the Cards are serious about retaining Pujols. I see no reason to doubt Matt on this point. Boras says DeWitt has loads of money. WCBW believes a bunch of it is stashed down in the Caymans.
It would make sense to get Luddy and Schu squared away next, those may be one year deals or maybe not.
Any reaction from Albert yet about Matt?
Things to consider:
BD just spent a lot of money. He is in a very strong position right now. He has leverage. You will not recognize how he will or is using it, if you don’t pay attention.
Was the Mo statement to AP’s agent made from a strong position????????? Or did he just escape from a very weak one???????????
This team has allot of work to do. We should all focus on unity at this point. I will guarantee that the powers in MLB , as they rise from the large market teams, are very active right now. I’m sure they recognize that BD has moved another step closer to his long term goals. Do you see how?
Do you really think the Cardinals would (could) have made this signing……….without allot of cooperation from MLB? Lets see MH says there were allot of ups and downs. Huh…………….. Scott Boras has a size MH boot mark on the back of his neck just to stop him from trying to play all the angles.
There are major players conspiring on a number of fronts here. Lets just win the WS and watch the drama.
bb, this morning on the main TheCardinalNation.com site, I posted a very detailed article with the comps and thinking behind my projections as to what I think Schumaker and Ludwick would make via arbitration. If you are a subscriber, be sure to check it out.
Ludwick might get two years to finish out his pre-free agency years, but my guess is that both he and Skip end up with one-year deals. Last year, Ludwick went down to the wire. It could happen again as his 2009 season was not nearly as strong as his 2008.
Ludwick is represented by the same Beverly Hills agency as Pujols (and Brian Fuentes who did not sign). They are patient negotiators, not wishing to be outdone by Boras.
Pujols can say something about Holliday at the onset of spring training (or at Winter Warmup). There is no reason for him to do so now. Albert is off-duty, in the off-season.
For those interested in numerology, Holliday said he is moving from #15 to #7 because he felt 15 was associated with Jim Edmonds and he wanted his own identity.
I added this because there are a bunch of web searches coming here looking for information on number 7.
Matt Holliday seven uniform number st. louis cardinals
CC said,
1) Holliday proved the market is soft for top tier guys 2) Holliday’s signing reduces the money available for Albert (the Cards would deny but I have little doubt) 3) The Holliday signing gives the Cards a little more leverage with regard to letting Albert walk if necessary.
CC,
I would respectfully submit,
Albert is way above and beyond a top tier guy, Holliday’s signing does not reduce the money for Albert, no way in heck does the Holliday signing give the Cardinals a pass or a desire to let Albert walk. It’s just my gut feeling but the numbers back me up.
Brian-that’s neat that Holliday is taking #7
Seems with a seven-year contract, the number is especially fitting.
[...] my earlier post, “Time to act on the Holliday-Pujols contract FUD”, I presented a case why I think the timing is right for the St. Louis Cardinals to push to secure a [...]
If it weren’t for Diz he might have picked something else : )