Initial impressions of strengths and weaknesses of using Twitter for baseball-related news.
The New York Times celebrated the new decade with a thought-provoking article by David Carr entitled, “Why Twitter will endure”. I suggest readers branch off and read it before returning, as from here, I will assume you have a base level of knowledge about the phenomenon. As a relatively-recent entrant into this instant-messaging craze, I have been mentally collecting my Twitter-related experiences as they relate to following baseball. Carr’s article offers me the context to share them.
This past spring, I recall a veteran baseball writer poking fun at early adopters with the catchy retort, “Only twits Twitter.” The next time I saw him, he had surprisingly not only become a twit, or more accurately a “tweeter”, but was a frequent user. His explanation: “My boss told me I had to use it.” Apparently, it grew on him.
My delayed decision to finally join the Twitterverse was a personal call based solely on audience reach. More and more readers are looking for better ways to mine information faster and in a less cumbersome manner than via RSS feeds, emails or web browsing, as Carr notes.
Yet there is the real risk of being drowned in Twitter-driven minutiae. While Carr pokes fun at the concern, it is real. Something I first learned with Facebook and was reinforced with Twitter is the need to be selective in whom you follow.
Some nationally-known experts have multiple Twitter accounts, enabling them to separate business from pleasure. This is the ideal approach, in my opinion. For example, Joe Blow might specialize in reporting baseball transactions. Done right, Joe would post his baseball news via his transactions account and restrict the news of what new tattoo he is considering, what recipes he is testing and his music CD choices of the year to his personal account.
Sadly, that clean and clear division between personal and work life isn’t always drawn, nor do I think many of the tweeters want that. I find the worst to be when an individual tweets the same information from multiple accounts.
For some, Twitter offers an opportunity to show off multiple dimensions of their personality and build a cult of followers. Frankly, I’d just rather read about transactions, not how much Joe Blow spent at the liquor store prior to New Year’s Eve (like the others, an actual example).
My favorite first-month tweets include a national baseball media figure, tweeting via his iPhone from an interstate highway, complaining about other drivers not paying attention to the road. Another horsehide-focused writer tweeted, “My cabdriver just cut off a horse.” I didn’t know for sure if he was living out “The Godfather” or simply visiting Central Park. Either way, I didn’t give a damn.
One key measure of Twitter credibility is the number of followers you have – those who are willing and ready to read your every thought. In a way, it is a pyramid, in that those who got in early generally have more followers.
Some of the later arrivals have resorted to cheesy gimmicks to try to attract readers. One example of a “follow me” plea is to offer registration in a prize drawing for those who re-tweet, or recopy, their fishing attempt for new followers. The downside is that the followers who had already subscribed receive multiple copies of the same content-free tweets over and over and over.
My solution for the above was to unfollow the offender despite being interested in his work. Maybe I will re-follow once his ego is adequately stroked. Maybe not. For others, it is not so easy. Some use their Twitter account for a mixture of purposes, some useful and some not.
MLB is one of the worst offenders, with numerous daily tweets leading up to the Holidays touting sales at the Official MLB.com Shop interspersed with actual news of potential interest. Of course, that is likely their intent. If they had an MLB Shop Twitter feed exclusively focused on their wares, no one in their right mind would follow. After all, how many Derek Jeter bobbleheads does one person need?
Another common abuse of Twitter is the multi-tweet message. Architecturally limited to 140 characters per tweet, some bypass the restriction by posting a string of inter-related tweets one after another to tell a short story instead of just making a single blog post and calling attention to it once via a link. I am pretty sure I am not alone in considering it bad form to be labeled as a serial tweeter.
Twitter allows private messaging between two individuals, yet many purposely publicly tweet to others who are a part of their “fraternity” no matter how obscure the discussion appears to the vast majority of their followers watching. If you have to ask, you obviously have no need to know…
Who replies to your tweets indicates to all who knows and likely respects you, a major cred point. I watch amusedly while some aspiring figures assume the “yes man” position in response to seemingly whatever the big boys post.
Another edge to that sword is that literally anyone can respond publicly to anyone else, meaning normally inaccessible figures can be engaged by the masses. Its ugly side surfaced when several national writers cast controversial ballots that may have affected the outcome of a high-profile baseball award. The unwashed tweeters descended upon the writers, driving at least one to turn around and publicly ridicule his disagreeing followers for their grammatical and spelling errors.
As the New Year arrived, tweets from celebrities and wannabees alike thanking their “tweeps” for following them were commonplace. Perhaps I am just a curmudgeon, but I am not anyone’s “tweep”.
Don’t get me wrong. Despite the number of negative keystrokes invested so far, I agree with Carr’s basic premise that Twitter is here to stay.
Fortunately, many have figured it out, including Carr. “…after a while, I realized that I was not Moses and neither Twitter nor its users were wondering what I thought. Nearly a year in, I’ve come to understand that the real value of the service is listening to a wired collective voice,” Carr wrote.
While some baseball news provided is old and rehashed, Baseball’s Winter Meetings offered a great illustration of the power of the medium. It was a tremendous opportunity to reap many of the benefits of being there without having to travel to snowy Indianapolis in the midst of the winter. Sportswriters and even agents and club personnel at times were sharing news on an instant basis to anyone and everyone connected.
New rumors are quickly dispersed via Twitter and in some cases, almost as quickly debunked by others with better information and more in the know about the subject at hand. Normally, mainstream writers are careful not to openly disagree with peers, but Twitter has helped to expose multiple perspectives not always visible before.
Twitter also seems to be changing the misinformation game so successfully played in past years by high-profile player agents. They carefully plant rumors with media friends about supposed “mystery bidders” to spook nervous general managers into bidding against themselves for free agents. One example concerning Matt Holliday last week had a shelf life measured in minutes thanks in part to informed Twitter responses that quickly took apart the very questionable rumor.
After the Winter Meetings, I read an article written by a principal from a traditional baseball news site lamenting the instant nature of Twitter. As I thought about it, the expression of that concern seemed only logical. After all, this may yet be another example where the middleman fears losing relevance if unwilling or unable to adapt to change.
Like clockwork, within a few minutes of national writers tweeting a news item, at least a couple of baseball rumor-related sites will echo the content. Still, because it isn’t very practical for the reader to track every writer from every news source, following these national sites can quickly deliver tidbits that may be fresh to one’s eyes.
One helpful vehicle that can be used to try to make order from the potential chaos is to group those you follow into categories, called lists. For example, I have separate lists for national writers, NL Central Division, Cardinals, minor league and fantasy baseball. Each person and site I follow is placed into one of the lists.
I use a freeware offering called TweetDeck to display the lists side-by-side on a single screen when using my laptop. New tweets pop up in one corner of my screen automatically while I am doing other work, keeping me from having to return to my Twitter home page repeatedly. This is a major improvement over the sequential presentation of basic Twitter.
As you might expect, there are literally dozens of Twitter apps for whatever your platform and need. The possibilities seem almost endless with new ones popping up every week.
Like Carr says, “Twitter will endure.” You may as well engage. Just do it with your wits about you.
Oh yeah, follow me on Twitter.
I’ve been looking for a way to segue into my appeal to the Cards to go after Clay Zavada, the awesome young D-back reliever. Somehow a piece about tweets, twits, tweeps and Moses seems like an open invitation. Here is the arguement:
“ST. LOUIS (Oct. 30, 2009) – Wearing a $3 crown and his dapper, trademark handlebar mustache that terrorized Major League hitters during the 2009 Major League Baseball season, Arizona Diamondbacks relief pitcher Clay Zavada received the American Mustache Institute’s 2009 “Robert Goulet Memorial Mustached American of the Year,” presented by Quicken®.
In front of a crowd of roughly 1,000 at ‘Stache Bash 2009 — a benefit for Challenger Baseball featuring the legendary John Oates — Zavada accepted the Goulet award which recognizes the person best representing or contributing to the Mustached American community over the past year………
Zavada won the Goulet award after more than 100,000 total online votes were cast. He was joined at ‘Stache Bash by fellow finalists………Brendan Ryan of the St. Louis Cardinals……
Zavada is part of growing wave of good looking mustached baseball players who have discovered the power of the labia sebucula (Latin for “lip sweater”). The mustache’s enhancement of a player’s skills has stirred controversy in the sport as an internal report produced by Major League Baseball reportedly said it believes Zavada’s mustache was responsible for at least 42 of his 52 strikeouts in 2009, leading the Diamondbacks and 12 other teams to conduct a worldwide search for other mustached players. The New York Yankees are believed to have tried to clone and transplant the mustache of Hall of Fame reliever “Goose” Gossage onto the face of Joba Chamberlain until Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig intervened.”
full article: http://americanmustacheinstitute.org/cs/blogs/ami_2009/archive/2009/10/30/diamondbacks-zavada-wins-mustached-american-of-the-year.aspx
Good one BB.
“We’re getting ready to move. I know they’ve been talking a lot with Matt. I know we have a really smart Plan B…(It) could be on Plan A, or it could be our Plan B. The point is, we’re not going to get stuck.”
From this post, it looks allot like the Cardinals now recognize an impasse. BD has set his heals, Scottie’s stalling has been recognized……………..the clock now ticks downward…………Tony’s little signal or comment is a warning intended for Matt………… not Boras.
I wonder what plan B has in it? Does it have a Boras client? Apparently not………….or……..is Scottie making a play here?
yeah, I really trust Larussa. He is always so honest and forthright.
Wow-I never knew all that about Twitter, no wonder I can’t follow what is being said on it. The only one that has made sense to me are the extra clues on Twitter from Horsehide Trivia.
I have 2 twitter accounts -1 personal and one for Cardinal stuff – and I seldom use either. I use the Cardinal one during the season but during the off season it gets clogged up with too much football and other sports stuff as the same guys that tweet Cardinal info also tweet about other sports.
If I was mobile all the time with a cell phone as my primary communications I would probably be more of a twit. twitter makes it easy to stay informed on the run. But since I’m not out and about that much there is no need.
I think what you (Brian) are missing is the social side of twitter. Yes posting links is good marketing but I think once the season starts you may find some good discussions/conversations take place via twitter about Cardinal stuff. And unlike me, people will care what you have to say about Cardinal things. I’ll bet even some of your fantasy baseball discussions will move to twitter eventually. I think you will also find that being part of the conversation will enhance the marketing of your blog and the Scout site. You may not be the type who likes to take the time to invest in those discussions but the social contacts you can develop will help you tremendously.
CC, I agree with your points. I tried to orient the article more to inform and entertain the reader than to feature my own motivations and plans. I also have two accounts, but I don’t plan to tweet extensively about personal matters and I started with b_walton, so the TCN one may remain dormant.
If Beltre goes to the Red Sox, does that change anything? Or does a two year deal not break a truce? Boras has the reigns on this one too. Love the suspense.
Yanks are probably happy to see Boston waste that amount on Beltre. Certainly not a balance of power changer.
Beltre to Sox won’t hurt Cards unless Mo was stupid enough to make another Boras client his Plan B. I really doubt it…
Beltre has emotional issues. He might really be good around Pujols. (Ankiel/Holiday)
The timing is all Scottie. If Beltre was part of plan B……..he would have guessed it. The tell is in how many teams are swarming the 2yr deal………….feeding frenzy? This is definitely a play by Boras.
I have been wondering if Boras might be holding onto any of his guys who might be Cards Plan B guys except for being Boras clients, forcing other teams to hire other guys who might be the Cards actual plan B guys. So, if Boston can’t sign Beltre, they will have to sign some other guy who might be the Cards Plan B guy. But now, the deal seems to be done, so does that mean my theory was wrong, or has Boras moved on to his own Plan B? Step up guys, I’m stumped.
Maybe the $16+per is real, and Scottie leaked it so Theo would know that for another $7M or so per he could be in the running for MH instead of Beltre. Theo didn’t bite so the Beltre deal got done.
Beltre now and Lowell in 07 are similar. In 2010 Beltre gets 1/9 with $5M player option, in 2007 Lowell got 3/37. Boras has folded on market condition issue.
Shelley Dunc signed by Indians. He should rocket to top of their left field depth chart.
Scratch another Plan B guy
Boras leaked the low end of the offer BB. He is waving Beltre around on a 2yr promise. Of course the escalation in the bidding will take someone to three years. He is stalling, hoping to break the collusion. Holiday is just waiting to take the 7 yr deal. Whats not evident are the players in Tony’s plan B that would be satisfying to him. Boras is testing his relationship to Holiday at this point, tell Matt that the Cardinals are bluffing.. The Cards are talking over Boras at this point, strait to Matt and family. BD has apparently hit his max position. This could end suddenly if the market changes.
A 120million Dollar play wins going away at this point. Watch the Cubs here in a defensive signing. They might just suffer Soriano at 2nd. Very low probability in that I think.
The Red Sox have agreed on a deal with third baseman Adrian Beltre, a source told the Globe. The deal is for one year with Beltre holding an option for the second year.
Peter Gammons is reporting that Beltre would be paid $9 million in 2010. The option would be worth $5 million. In essence, it’s a two-year deal with an opt-out after one year.
This is a play against the collusion by Boras. He has his opt-out…………..you would think that he would leap at the ST Louis deal if it includes an opt-out if he feels the market is that weak.
Here it comes………either that is over the line and the Yankees make a play now or the Cardinals sign Holiday by Wednesday. One way or another, you just witnessed a Scottie play………it also leaves Boston flexible in the 2011 FA sweepstakes.
Look at the FA list, Plan B is a train wreck whatever it is.
Maybe Westy, but I think the take on events I posted above at 8:32pm is what we have just seen. We could have a deal tomorrow, likely even. Wednesday if the copier runs out of paper or something.
I don’t no BB. Watch NY and the Angels now. They will act soon if at all.
No way Boston gets Holiday cheap. Ny would see to that.
Check this out. Multiples of possibilities here.
http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/red_sox/index.php/2010/01/04/beltre-turned-down-more-money-to-play-for-sox/
La Russa has remained unswervingly optimistic about Holliday’s return, even when Mozeliak projected that possibility as “less than 50-50″ and Boras last month said the organization was understating its financial resources.
Strauss said Matt was at these meetings briefly……………………lets not forget what just happened in Boston. Bad blood forever with Scott.
Interesting BB. I like Beltre’s attitude. According to those numbers, they might have stayed in line with any agreements…………………Look at the freedom Boras gave him…..interesting.
Have to go run the car for a while so maybe it will start in the morning, down to zero tonight. Tomorrow should be a good day.
bb, thanks for the Boston link. I find it very interesting that Boras turned down four years for Beltre earlier in the off-season. I wonder if Beltre and Damon may end the winter as unhappy Boras clients.
I don’t think this is Beltre leaving money on the table or Boras letting Beltre go where he wants for less money. Sounds like Boras/Beltre scrambling to me. HAD a previous 4 year offer – sounds like it is long gone. This is Boras putting together the best Andruw Jones deal available in this market to rehabilitate his client for next year.
Boston is a high risk move. If things get off to a rocky start it could spiral downward like often happens to guys there. Ends up getting off-loaded in August.
I think BW and CC are right. Boras hadn’t accepted market reality and his own lack of devine status early on.
Back to Shelley Duncan.
I understanding its a MLB contract. Who Does Cleveland have that would be ahead of him on LF depth chart? Wonder if they would have gone for Ankiel instead if he wasn’t a Boras client. Somebody with a big park and no money to hire sluggers and aces will want that arm.
BB – do you mean MiLB contract (as in minor league)?
CC, I can’t find whatever I was looking at last night. It was late, that part of the post doesn’t make a lot of sense. I would think they could put him wherever they want. Surely he will be in big league camp though, and they are hoping he’s their left fielder.
I guess it wasn’t late, but it still doesn’t make sense.
If I was a Cleveland fan, I would be pulling hard for Michael Brantley or Trevor Crowe to take the LF job. They are both highly-ranked prospects. Sizemore and Choo are set in center and right, respectively.
The Indians site says it’s believed to be a minor league deal. Sorry for the confusion.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100104&content_id=7874210&vkey=news_cle&fext=.jsp&c_id=cle&partnerId=rss_cle
My understanding is neither Brantly noe Crowe look like the offense/power you like to get in a LFer.
Early January……….9million…………bumping Lowell into oblivion? A real hack job. Timely too. He knew Boston wasn’t going to be able to commit, so he helped them. Important for Scottie to do some patching up with Boston also. Beltre wants some and I bet he makes an impression there.
Lets see what that move manifests.
Wish I could have been there when Boras took a swing at DeWitt in front of Holiday about “financial positions”. There is bad blood there. It was Boras that brought Matt in for that show.
All I could think of was the “perp walk” that law enforcement does with criminals. Walk the perp in front of the cameras and whisk him away to jail. Holliday seems to have about as much control over his situation as that stereotypical perp in handcuffs…
WC, kudos to you on the Hollidays buying a house in St. Louis scoop from Sunday. (I highlighted it in the original post for clarity.) Two days later, it has now been affirmed by St. Louis 590 The Fan.
I pictured the adoption room at the humane society when they bring the prospective adoptee into the little room to snuggle with the family and set the hook. He was probably all cleaned up and everything.
That was an amazing scoop, hard evidence.
bb, yours is a happier, better thought. It has a nice ARF angle, too. I wonder if Boras had him leashed and muzzled…
Whay does everyone think about a possible deal with Boston to get Lowell? He could probably be had for Lugo money I would assume. Then you have Lowell starting with Freese as a backup in case he needs a break every now and then.
1. Skip 2B
2. Brendan SS
3. Albert 1B
4. Holliday LF
5. Lowell 3B
6. Luddy RF
7. Colby CF
8. Yadi C
9. Pitcher
This lineup has a little bit to it.
Scott: Come on in Matt.
[ Matt enters stage left]
Mo: Matt ! ! !, congratulations on the new house ! ! !
Scott: Matt ! ! ! @#%$@, Too bad you have to run, Matt, see ya, bye.
[ Matt exits stage left]
ten minutes later
“Theo, Scottie here, Beltre’s a go . . . . can I interest you in a center fielder . . . .”
I gave you the scoop just the other day…………….MH is a done deal. Has been for a week.
RC, I was planning to blog about that very idea. I first saw it posed by a Boston writer, Nick Cafardo, back in November. It should be an easy deal to make as the Cards already take many of the Red Sox rejects (Pineiro, Lugo, Penny, Smoltz…). Word is that Texas was going to get $9M of his $12M salary from BOS before the recent thumb surgery so with higher risk, Lowell might even come cheaper. For a $3M gamble or less, the Cards could do far worse. However, Lowell will be an old 36 next season, so expectations would have to be tamped down.
But for 2-3 million bucks he would be a helluva player to have IMO.
Nice RC. An injury risk is OK if somebody else is paying. Yadi-Colby might make a good hit n run combo. Why Lowell-Luddy rather than Luddy-Lowell? Also, it goes without saying Ryan-Schu is better than Schu-Ryan.
How about making Tyler a second baseman and getting a platoon going at second and in the #2 spot?
bb, good point about paying the freight. I had a Twitter exchange with a blogger just last night who was trumpeting Joe Crede because he is a 2 WARP player. Like that matters if he can’t play. I pointed out that three back surgeries in three years is not a place I would want to go. Also happens to be another Boras boy.
I like Lowell higher in the order because if healthy enough he has a more proven record of run producing. I wouldn’t really care if they were flipped but I like Lowell as a hitter a little better in the spot.
I like Brendan in the lead off spot against a Lefty but I’ll stick with Schu against a righty. I don’t dislike your platoon idea but I would bet my house TLR wouldn’t put Tyler in the two spot…………..ever. And I’ll put big denaro’s on Lugo batting in the 2 hole against a Lefty.
I said on another board that the Cards could very well be interested in Lowell but wouldn’t get serious about a deal until Holliday signed as to not free up money in Boston for a possible Holliday bid.
CC, did the rumor come from a credible source? I could see the first part, but the second seems a stretch. Considering the Sox were reportedly only going to cost avoid $3M by sending Lowell to Texas, I can’t see that paltry amount getting in the way if they really wanted Holliday. Lugging Lowell’s salary around didn’t stop them from signing Beltre.
Edit: If the rumor was several days old, pre-Beltre signing, I could see it. Now that BOS has committed $9M or more to Beltre next year, too, it seems most unlikely they would go after Holliday with or without the $3M avoided by dumping Lowell.
I like how you think CC
Nice one CC. Same reason Boras wouldn’t let them spend on Beltre until Holliday deal done??
Re.: Freese. Last I heard Riverside County, CA authorities deciding what to do about the DWI being a violation of probation from his conviction there. That’s the sort of thing can land you in jail. Anybody heard more on that?
No rumor, just supposition on my part. It would have only been $3 million but at that point Boston was still discussing a backloaded offer to Bay so $3 million more might have allowed them to go for Holliday. (Also remember that at some point $3 million becomes $4.5 million to Boston based on luxury tax.)
Goold has a lengthy article and down aways he gives a chart showing PECOTA (which he says is a ‘predictive metric’ from Baseball Prospectus) projections of Hollidays production over the next few years:
“Something is amiss with Holliday’s projections, though. Take a look:
Career so far: .318 BA, .387 OBP, .545 SLG … OPS+ 133
PECOTA ‘10: .285 BA, .358 OBP, .480 SLG … 3.5 Wins
PECOTA ‘11: .288 BA, .360 OBP, .489 SLG … 3.6 Wins
…
PECOTA ‘14: .278 BA, .348 OBP, .446 SLG … 1.6 Wins
PECOTA ‘15: .276 BA, .350 OBP, .439 SLG … 1.2 Wins
Any theories for why PECOTA treats Holliday so harshly, I’d like to hear”
I know nothing about this, but wonder if Mo was smart enough to use it to counter Boras’s stuff? Also, I have never heard anyone suggest that Baseball Prospective was full of crap, but come on.
Baseball Prospectus is full of crap – now you’ve heard it!
2014 and 2015 projections? Why even bother to publish that?
Stats and metric stuff is never wrong, no matter who is doing the crunching. I’m re-reading Moneyball right now so I know. Billy is so righteous and shat-upon, I just want to give him a hug. Also am re-skimming 3 days in August, which sucks, except for one thing Tony said in his Preface: “when we suck, its mostly because I suck”.
Chone has Holliday at 4.2 WAR in 2010 – about $18 million in value. Even that seems low given holliday’s history.
WAR VALUE
2004 – 1.6 $4.8 million value
2005 – 3.3 $11.1
2006 – 4.4 $16.4
2007 – 8.0 $32.7
2008 – 6.3 $ 28.5
2009 – 5.8 $25.6
There is an appearance that Freeze has a few impediments to remove before becoming a Big league player. If his backup is actually better than him (Lowell), that is moving against player development. Got to believe Cards are using some sense. They paid good money for that kid. We need a solid bull pen arm so that we don’t have to carry 18 pitchers. I want to see Craig hit, not have another 2 player monstrosity like Shu and Lugo at 2nd.
The biggest impediment to player development is TLR – if you are going to keep him as the manager than you’ve got to give him players that compliment his style.
Would be good to get Lowell for one year with a club option to see if Freese can stay out of trouble for a year, then let him be the everyday guy. Sorry to say I doubt he can do it, I would guess Mo doubts it to.
All the reports I can find on the MH house thing go back to a Frank Cusumano tweet. Not meaning to split hairs, but the report is he made an offer, not that he bought it.
According to Frank Cusumano, Matt #Holliday has put an offer in to buy a home in the St. Louis area. #stlcards
about 6 hours ago from web
590thefanKFNS
590 The Fan KFNS
Lets let the house thing slide. I sincerely hope it wasn’t anything that I said that got outside here. That could be hazardous to this deal…………………………………….. If RC has this as a dead cinch, and not just the Holidays assuming that there directives would be followed…………………what other motivation would there be to keep it under raps……… what pending acquisition might it affect? Any ideas?
Lowell would be a nice pickup. He put up pretty good numbers last year. I never understand why Boston wants to ditch all of these guys on their own bill.
I assume that the BP projections would have something to do with the fact that Holliday would be older and in decline by the end of a long contract. It’s no big secret that around age 34 or 35, baseball players usually play worse than they did when five years younger.
Heyman (SI) says Holliday deal done 7/120.
Anyone surprised Heyman got the scoop? NOT!
I predicted in the beginning 7/126 with another 5 for an 8th year buyout (7/131 total). But given this weak market Boras did well to get Matt what he did. I actually believed Mo when he said when wouldn’t be the high bidder – I guess I was just foolish.
Despite dollars per year not being crazy, speculation will continue as to how low the second-highest bidding team was.
Here is an ESPN clip that plays Holliday talking about the deal on the Doug Gottlieg show on ESPN radio.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4799313
I guess the copier didn’t run out of paper.
Mike Lowell ? Not a bad idea. He was in 119 games last year and 113 in 2008. He is going to be 36 this season and I would expect he would rip up the NL Central pitching–but can he play 100 games?
Would Boston just give him away ?
Glad the Holliday deal is finally over-too many years for a good 30 year old hitter but barring injury he will add a lot to the lineup the first four years, after that he gets an automatic no-trade being a 10-5 player. So basically the Cards are giving him a no trade the first four years.
A couple interesting things in an article by this A.P. guy.
By R.B. FALLSTROM
AP Sports Writer
“Holliday’s contract contains a full no-trade clause and deferred money that lowers its annual present-day value to about $16 million.”
“St. Louis becomes only the third team with a pair of $100 million players, joining the New York Yankees (Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia) and the New York Mets (Johan Santana and Carlos Beltran).”
Also, he says the contract is 7/120 rather than 7/119 due to the $1M buyout of 8th year.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/B/BBN_CARDINALS_HOLLIDAY?SITE=TNMEM&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
Chief, I think the Cards are still 6 or 7 Mil under $100M payroll, so even if he cost 1 or 2 that would still leave 5 0r six for some pitching help or whatever.
I’m with you on the worry about the second half of the contract. He’s not known for crashing into walls, so that’s good at least.
Well, that’s a relief. I’m content that the team should be very competitve again next season now.
Just a wild guess. Basic agreement was reached a week ago. By the time Boras fought through BD’s 9 month payout scheme instead of the usual 6, just to reclaimed another 3/5 million in interest. That final million in incentives took another three days of stalling and nitpicking.(Maybe trying to stir up more interest in Beltre) That’s when the discouraged Mo gives the less than 50/50 estimation. Anyway, in the end Boras wins the pissing contest and can say he hit 120 million. You will probably start noticing a rough equality in billing between AP and MH as the year approaches. The game is on.
I give this deal a 50/50 chance at this point.
To Cubs fans…………… “ You talking to me”!
For those interested, at The Cardinal Nation, I documented the blow-by-blows over the last two years. “The Matt Holliday-St. Louis Cardinals Chronology: 2008-2010″ now posted (free!).
I hear ya WC, Coming next week, you have the LaRussa pack, and the Pujols pack, but now we are introducing the Holliday pack of tickets. On sale Jan 20. Buy yours now.
Great job by Mo to keep the team compettive and this move will likely make the Cards the preseason team to beat in the Central Division.
I’m curious to see how Albert responds this year to this move.
Lets count some of the winners. 1. TLR, who wanted Holliday.
2. Boras. Since the economic outlook for the next decade is iffy, this may in retrospect look like a strong contract, even by the overpaid standards of MLB free agents.
3. The big winner is John Mozeliak. He dished out 3 prospects for the chance to land Holliday in a long term deal. He stuck with it and it got done. Enormous win for Mo.
Left field is not a high wear and tear position. Holliday ought to have 7 years left in him.
This helps the Cards offer a stronger bid to Pujols.
Wow, looking good for 2010. Penny, Holliday and McGwire on the coaching staff.
4. Decent win for the Union. A $100+MM contract comes to pass outside of New York and San Franciso.
Interesting link Bling.
Even if the Cards could have signed MH for less years they wanted to make him comfortable and happy.
I still would like to see Smoltz signed to a high leverage relief role but Westie pointed out that his physical problems may not allow him to get ready in a hurry.
Nut, Hopefully the team can play deep into October this year.
Great point, RC. We know Albert will say all the right things, but this move really puts the pressure on him. Any questions about the franchise’s willingness to spend and field a competitive team have been eliminated. Albert will become the bad guy when he receives a fair offer if he doesn’t take it. It may still take two years to play out…
RC-I agree, Mozeliak is doing a good job to keep the team competitive and Dewitt is spending the bucks.
Lets hope Albert’s elbow survives another season in the trenches and the team doesn’t burn out “keeping that edge” come September/October.
Jumbo: “Left field is not a high wear and tear position.”
I recall someone who busted himself up rather convincingly playing left field, isn’t that right Jumbo?
Brian, nice work on that Chronology on TCN site. I can’t see how Colorado preferred Oakland’s trade offer over the Cards’.
Westy, RC, lets add McGwire into the Pujols-Holliday thing. He’s a Tony guy, besides just being who he is. Up to our asses in 800 lb gorillas.
Thanks, bb. I am working on a Heyman-only version now.
Bling, plenty of left fielders do not make headlong dives to try to catch liners. If a LF plays a outside his safe operating envelope, yes he can get hurt. I trust Holliday to play under control.
Tony: Concurso de belleza de tres perros grandes!!!!!
Albert: Repetir después de mí, Albert es el más hermoso.
Holiday isn’t likely to be overly reactive to Albert now that he knows where he’s going to be. I haven’t heard of an opt-out here.
The good news is, this challenge for Albert isn’t as difficult as the one the beat him up last fall. He will look damn silly pouting at this point about folks pitching around him.. He now has to out perform a 17 million dollar player to justify more. That’s why you are looking at 120. DeWitt drove this deal, not Mo. He is smart.
I’ll be honest………… Albert should bat 4th…….lets run up front with Holiday hitting 3rd. Albert can get 200 rbi’s from there.
Yeah, no more platooning in the outfield……………..
“He now has to out perform a 17 million dollar player to justify more.”
Word, Westy. That’s a hell of a good observation.
No kudos to Mo for trading prospects as it relates to this signing. This was at (or above) market value. We could have had him for this price w/o trading the prospects. Now one has to justify the prospects simply as it relates to the pennant drive – a tough task I think. That makes Mo a loser in this deal in my book.
It is not quite that simple CC. They would have lost their 2010 first-rounder had they signed Holliday for the first time now. Equate that to Wallace and they essentially gave up Mortensen and Peterson for a partial season of Holliday and a better chance to win in 2009. I suspect most would be ok with that, even in hindsight.
This is purely BD. This signing ,at that price has as much to do with the Birmingham trip and Albert’s silent tact than anything else.
Subconsciously, many of Jeshua’s followers were fascinated at the chance to witness the hoped for miracle of (Jesus) flying of the cross in the face of his Rome tormentors. The rest hit the road at his arrest.
Translation; there will be a massive ticket surge to watch this show within the show. Albert can’t act the role he has become accustom to. His role will now be defined in a very different manner…… If the team dominates, and Albert preforms admirably as does Holiday, Albert has to take less to keep the team together. 25 tops……….. If he struggles, his price goes down anyway. If he continues his spiritual grind…………… that most likely creates injuries. BD just bought a get out of jail card, and he will still stay under 100 mill………pretty smart move again.
Pick #25 (I think that’s our pick this year) doesn’t equal #12. At best it would be equivelent to Mortensen (given certainty as well as development time and all). So now we are talking Wallace and Peterson for Hollidya for the pennant drive — still do it Brian?
“This signing ,at that price has as much to do with the Birmingham trip and Albert’s silent tact than anything else.”
Man, I wish I had such a vivid imagination!
There you go again WC – wanting to have it both ways. We are under hundred million but we are paying full freight for Lugo since we got cash with him (which we spent last year). One argument or the other breaks down. Choose which one you’ll bite the bullet on and say you were wrong about – I won’t hold my breath.
Cards fans now have the only team outside NY with two $100M players. That will be interesting.
CC, I did not say I would have done the deal. My primary point was that your analysis was incomplete and I thought most fans would be ok with the trade in hindsight.
Wallace was 13th and Mortensen 36th, so they are almost equidistant from this year’s 25th pick. Neither one is an ideal comp, but having to choose one, I would break the tie with Wallace, since Mortensen was a second pick, a comp rounder.
For my personal view, I am preparing a blog post now….
bb, I am curious what all those writers who puffed up the Phillies as the supposed model (with some not-so-subtle prompting from Boras) will be saying now. My guess is that some will move the argument to the Cards investing too much on too few. Impossible to please all the second-guessers.
The east coast Phillies are the Yankees of the National League, right? I can see ESPN guys flipping through their road atlases. “Hold on, I know it’s one of those ‘M’ states, give me a minute.”
Brian, I understand and you are right it was not a complete analysis. The point remains though. If you are the highest bidder paying full value for Holliday it seems to me you have to evaluate the trade as simply a pennant drive move with no credit given for it leading to the signing.
Yes, Mortensen was #36 but he is now a sure thing (only question is upside) and major league ready – knowing what teams know now about him I think he goes at least #25 most years. Wallace probably goes slightly higher than #13 and Peterson probably moves up a few spots as well. Add in lost development time as well (I think you brought this up somewhere else recently).
Really, really surprised that Holliday’s deal isn’t backloaded slightly to bring him in under what Pujols will make the next 2 seasons. I it is a big deal to Pujols but it would have been a gesture of respect that was surely noted had it come out that way.
The Cards have no dead money, owed to players not playing for them anymore. No money going to guys that will start out on the DL. No long term contracts to players who are clearly not worth it going into 2010. (hopefully Lohse will not fall into that catagory). That’s a huge factor. Also, its not as though they have two high priced sluggers and nothing else. There are two Cy young quality aces at the top of the rotation. Two more veteran starters who have been successful in the past, are healthy and not over the hill. An all star closer. The top defensive catcher. Solid defensive outfield. Gold Glove quality defense at short. Acceptable defense at second. A bunch of healthy young arms with a year under their belt and DD coaching them. Guys like Colby and Brendan should really come into their own. Should be a team thats hard to ignore.
CC, I have written about the Pujols respect point in the past, too. There are several possible scenarios, not mutually exclusive.
1) The Cards could have proposed the Holliday deal with backloaded money to keep Albert on top for the next two years, but couldn’t get Boras to agree.
2) The Cards will now approach Albert about an extension that would include a re-negotiation of the next two years. Even if he turns it down, respect will be shown.
I personally really like the idea of striking again while the iron is hot. Barring a catastrophe, Pujols’ extension price will not go down over the next two years. If for some very unlikely reason, he signals he doesn’t want to return, the Cards can start thinking about the unthinkable – a trade. I doubt it will get there, but I am working on another post to explore this.
With re-signing Albert, it is vital to remember that we want to pay for the future, not the past. With that in mind, I like Westy’s idea of letting Albert out-produce the $17M man first, and talk about his next contract second. The next three quarters of a season or so should be enjoyable.
Pujols is the same age as Holliday and has been producing more than a $17 million player (in today’s money) for nine years now. He is hardly a risk despite those trying to analyze what might be going on inside of his head might suggest. I challenge anyone to show a more consistent producer in the game than Albert. He performed well as a member of the MV3 and will continue to do so as part of the new big two. He has nothing left to prove to me.
No arguement with what’s happened in the past, nor with what is likely to be in the future. I’m just saying the Cards have the chance to see a bit of that future before acting, so why not take advantage of that. They have both been remarkably consistent producers who stay healthy and in the lineup. I have every reason to believe Albert will have a Ruthian season. Lets say 1.150 OPS?
bb, we just see it differently. I suggest trying to lock Pujols up now. The Cards played .600 ball with the two together, which includes the final month when they always seem to swoon. That equates to 97 wins over a full season, which is good enough for me. If they determine he can’t be signed, then they have time to move him while his trade value is highest.
You seem willing to risk having to pay more for an extension or receive less in trade after Albert puts up “a Ruthian season”. That is also viable, but why let your position erode?
Combining the thoughts from above – with no dead money and a $100 million payroll they have absolutely no excuse for not winning the Central or even the NL crown.
NL Central favorite, yes. NL favorite, no. The Phillies are still tops on my list with the Cards second.
Edit: According to sportsbook.com, here are the 2010 NL pennant betting odds:
Phils +200
StL +450
LAD +700
Mets +800
Cubs +800
Braves +1000…
The paying more to Holliday than Pujols could also be an attempt to send a signal to Albert. A signal that says we are prepared to move on without you. I’m not saying it was a signal, just that it could be. The idea that Boras wouldn’t except less in the initial years would only make sense if Boras (not Holliday) was trying to send a signal with regards to salary over the next two years. Since it appears there is deferred money the difference to Matt could have been made almost invisible. What Boras’ angle would be I’m not sure.
I like the idea of putting the immediate push on to sign Albert now. If successful, it takes a lot of the drama and distraction away from this year (and next). If not, it allows the Cards to consider trade options before Albert’s no trade protection kicks in.
If Pujols isn’t re-signed this off season it seems that his value may very well depend more on Matt than on Pujols himself. If Holliday performs at or near Pujols level (let’s say 7-8 WAR, 150 OPS+ territory) then it seems logical that the Pujols can only demand 20%-30% more. If Matt is a 4.0 WAR player then Pujols gets 60%-80% more. A high performing Holliday also lessens the idea of the franchise will go totally down hill if Pujols isnt re-signed giving the team a subtle bit of leverage.
Brian, how does Pujols performing at a Ruthian level reduce his trade value?
Bling wrote, “Westy, RC, lets add McGwire into the Pujols-Holliday thing. He’s a Tony guy, besides just being who he is. Up to our asses in 800 lb gorillas.”
Bling, A friend of mine said last week, when he found out via a real estate agent that Holliday was coming back to St. Louis(you see this friend of mine is in the process of purchasing a home as was Holliday in the St. Louis area and have the same guy looking for homes), This friend stated, “Albert is gonna be pissed about Holliday”.
In other words, Albert will not be the Superpower he was last year from now on. Albert won’t be able to bark out commands to Matt and subsequently Albert will not be able to do that to the other players. I’m just curious how Albert will respond to not having the ultimate say in everything that is the St. Louis Cardinals from here on out. Matt will bring a balance that has been missing since Jim and Scott have moved on. Score one for the mainlanders
As for Big Mac being around, this can not be a bad thing for the mainlanders either. He will be able to put those kids under his wing like Albert does with the dominican players. Having Big Mac and MH(now around for the long haul) around is nothing but a positive for the TEAM.
My curiosity is in regards to how Albert will respond to not being the only Great player on the team, which is a role I believe he relishes. Now he is also second in the pecking order as far as money goes. I’m not sure his EGO will be able to cope with the change in the landscape.
CC, good points. Playing at high level does not diminish trade value, the passing of time does.
RC, also good points. I have a view of clubhouse dynamics, but it is not from being there every day. McGwire seems the real new dimension, which could be substantial depending on how he attacks the job. An influence angle not yet discussed is TLR. Pujols has years of a head start over the new guy Holliday.
Think bigger CC.
Brian, It would depend on the relative values. You are right there is a cost in letting your position erode. There is also a value in seeing more of the future before making a long term committment. One might believe that the cost of giving up the trade goods altogether would be well worth it to see two more years of that future before deciding to spend $200M.
Nice take RC. I think it is difficult to say how Pujols will respond. He may pout. He may suck it up and take his game to even higher levels in a “I’ll show them” response.
I welcome the disappearance of the primadona (as probably does Ryan). But for all we know Albert might as well. The weight of feeling he has to be the leader (whether he wants to or not and whether he really knows how to do that well or not) may be lifted and this may or may not be a positive.
Hopefully there is not a power struggle or the building of a faction struggle that could effect players far beyond Matt and Albert.
Albert can solve the money issue tomorrow if he wants with a simple call to BD saying he wants to negotiate an extension that includes tearing up the last 2 years of the current deal.
The dynamic of our present situation has its roots in all of the power plays that have been made in recent months. From Dave, to the Tony hold out, to the Albert taking independent medical advice on up……………………. BD’s options have constantly been narrowed. There have been so many variables whose outcome have contributed to our current “state of the union”, from the Adrian Gonzales hold by SD, too the Yankee/Boston civilities.
No matter how you look at it……..BD got the fastball…….and drove it. He is standing on second now with a big smile on his face. Its up to the big men to bring him in. Its time to reach for the pine tar, not your bank statements. Lets pray the pitching holds!
Lets hope Colby starts spraying the ball and negotiates his lifestyle fantasies form 320, instead of 260. Lets hope Freese or Craig push Ludwick to 7th and start writing their own success stories. Lets hope our young lefty wins 14 games.
Albert has his challenges, but he has a warriors heart. The dry powder has been tamped and he is still the cannon ball being loaded. Lets hope that Carpenter can still light matches all year long.