Why might both Scott Boras and the St. Louis Cardinals consider a shorter-term contact for free agent Matt Holliday?
As most St. Louis Cardinals fans know, the club remains in a contract stalemate with free agent Matt Holliday and his agent Scott Boras. For weeks, rumors of a five-year offer in the $80 million vicinity have supposedly been on the table.
In terms of years and total value, the Cardinals’ proposal is less than the seven-year, $107.5 million bid made in spring 2008 by Holliday’s club two back, the Colorado Rockies, though the annual value of St. Louis’ rumored offer is slightly higher. Boras seems unwilling or at least unready to admit the market has not grown to meet his inflated expectations, keeping many more across baseball than just his client and the Cardinals in a holding pattern.
Even with Tuesday’s news of Jason Bay going to the Mets for a reported four years, $66 million and a vesting option for a fifth season, closing off one more potential avenue for Holliday, there is no assurance that Boras will alter his negotiating stance any time soon. Among his other free agents still looking for work are Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, Felipe Lopez and Adrian Beltre.
That doesn’t mean The Cardinal Nation isn’t working on alternatives. Recent discussions here and elsewhere have suggested the idea of the Cardinals modifying their bid to a higher annual value in return for fewer years. For example, a two-year deal for $34 million up to as much as $38 million, or from $17 million to $19 million per year.
If I was Boras presented with that structure, I would push for at least the same annual value over a longer period, four or probably five years minimum. A major risk for the Cardinals is that if Boras is ever ready to entertain a shorter-term contract, it could re-interest other clubs in Holliday’s services.
Later on, if Boras wanted to try to align with the Cardinals while also positioning Holliday to take advantage of a better future market, he might consider teeing up an escape clause after two years. That would not necessarily be an immediate card to play and assumes he could first get an annual value to his liking.
Putting on Cards general manager John Mozeliak’s hat instead, I might counter by asking for a comparable club out after two seasons. In essence, that would just shorten the deal to two years.
After all, two years down the road, it is likely that one side or the other would perceive benefit in ending the contract early. If the player and the market continue to improve, Boras will be a winner, just as he was with J.D. Drew and the Dodgers. If Holliday doesn’t deliver, then the Cardinals might be inclined to cut their losses and exit the deal.
Two years may make sense for a number of external reasons as well. Following the 2011 season, the leadership of the St. Louis Cardinals could be very different than today.
Tony La Russa is just starting his first-ever one-year contract with the team and if he doesn’t retire after the 2010 campaign, his own comments suggest the odds of staying will drop substantially in each passing year. In other words, his end as manager is approaching.
2011 will be Chris Carpenter’s last guaranteed season under his current contract. A perennial injury risk, the ace of the staff will turn 37 years of age during the first month of the 2012 season, an option year for the team.
Last and far from least, the franchise, Albert Pujols, is not under contract after 2011. Trying to figure out how to satisfy Albert in terms of dollars while affording the optimal combination of complimentary players around him remains the single largest challenge for the franchise.
One can debate whether signing Holliday to any deal, long-term or short, helps or hurts the Pujols situation. In a two-year scenario, an immediate concern over Holliday making more than Albert in 2010 and 2011 would arise, a potential problem that could be avoided in a longer-term deal by backend-loading Holliday’s contract.
In a two-year Holliday plan, this would have to be addressed by making Pujols a specific offer now. Even if he is not ready to entertain it, the club would demonstrate their proper respect to Pujols as the team leader.
Given all the above, if the money and terms are right, the parties involved in the Holliday situation just might find a way to settle on two years as a workable compromise, but even if so, will it be with St. Louis?
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The Bay signing breaks the parity in the AL East, the last and only chance for SL to get MH . Boras has got to be delighted with this development.
DeRosa’s agent pleaded with the Cards to make any offer………….they never did or intend to. First offer for Holiday will come from Boston around 5/90……….then the fireworks.
Very interesting.I I wonder if Boras would go for a 2 year option out deal.If Holliday performs above expectations the Cards will go thru the FA routine with Boras all over again about the same time Albert `s contract is up.Why give yourself 2 major headaches at once? INO Cards should get Holliday for at least 4 years because even if he doesn`t turn into a superstar the Cards still have a SOLID professional player in case the worst thing happens ( Albert goes elsewhere).
WC, are you saying the Red Sox would dump Mike Cameron right after signing him? Where would they play everyone otherwise? Assuming they can get Adrian Gonzalez and dispose of Mike Lowell both seem unlikely right now.
Your view of DeRosa and the Cardinals seems in direct conflict with RC’s, for whatever that is worth.
What fireworks WC? Explain yourself please.
“The Bay signing breaks the parity in the AL East”………….What?
“DeRosa’s agent pleaded with the Cards to make any offer”………..Trying to drive up the price, nothing more.
Hi 52, just for general info, you usually have to figure out Westy’s pronouncements for yourself. It can be worthwhile or frustrating, depending. Any explaination just adds another layer. Holliday has stated in the past a long term deal with no trade is more important than max dollars. Boras probably shafted him turning down 7/107.5 from Colorado, fast forward to now, Boras’s agenda and Matt’s have diverged even further. He may well push a 2 yr max aav deal on Matt, whether Matt’s stupid enough to hand Boras back his head is a question yet to be answered.
Plan C is the scratch and dent aisle. Let’s not give up on Plan A.
My intel on DeRosa is that Mo did keep in contact with his agent about a possible offer in case the Holliday offer fell apart. I hate to ever differ with a person as knowledgable as WC but DeRosa had made it pretty clear he wasn’t returning to STL from jumpstreet.
DeRo has been deciding between two offers for awhile now, one from San Fran and one from New York. The San Fran gig offered a regular position verses a most likely utility role in NY. Mark wanted to play every day at the same position is my understanding.
Being more of a fun loving guy I don’t believe Mark felt he was a good fit for STL, where you check your fun at the door. I’m sure Mo felt the same way. Round hole, square peg. Like I have stated before, it takes a specific type of player to play 162 games for TLR. All business with no fun. My guess is it is tough on most guys, hence the september swoons as you have been emotionally drained by that time.
DeRo is 35 but never seemed to lose his fun loving persona, and who wouldn’t want to hang out with Tim Lincecum? Man what a party one could have huh?
Blingboy;
I kind of figured WC`s stuff as Bluster and BS or just plain old fashioned hot air mixed with a contrary attitude.Thanks for the heads up .
The Cardinals offered DeRosa only arbitration. Cards avoided any formal offer because as you can see, it would likely have been excepted. Or, made them look cheap or insincere after having trade two MLB ready prospects for him. He was never expected to be there at this price. The Giants just stuck out a number. He is 35. He took the security. I didn’t take RC to mean that he didn’t like ST Louis. I understand that he was being treated poorly……..which he was.
Mike Cameron is a chip. SD isn’t stupid. They realize Boston has been maneuvering, and now that Bay is gone, many things change.
The question is now, who gets Joel. 2/16 plays, 3/21 is next?
There is a game going on here having to do with collusion grievances. That’s why Boras can extend the Market as he is for some of the boys. Bay was one of the rare producing temperaments in the Red Sox culture. They never figured he would bail to the Mets. If the Yankee’s get Holiday. Sox will try to make it expensive, leaving themselves as the logical home for AP. The Yanks aren’t going to give up the division with Seattle pumping iron and the Angels yet to be heard from in the race for wild card position if Boston takes Holiday. Boston would have position if the Yankees have an “unseen reef”. Game is on.
You better hope the Cards solution isn’t Lopez at second Skip in left. That’s a loser.
The Giants look to have some options with DeRosa’s position depending on who else they sign. They could put him at third and move Kung Fu Panda to first, or stick him in one of the outfield corners. GM Brian Sabean says he is going to add another bat.
I think Westie is saying that without Bay the BoSox are not as competitive with the Yankees, hence
the lack of parity between the two best teams money can buy. Just my lowbrow interpretation.
I don’t agree with that conclusion because Boston improved their defense signing Cameron.
The possible Bay signing with the Mets (depending on physical) seems like too much money, especially in a pitcher’s park, when the Mets don’t have much other talent on the team.
The two year deal for Holliday as a possibility probably isn’t acceptable to either MH or Boras. Unless it is an opt out after two years.
At this point I hope Holliday signs with the Cards for 5 years $18 per year and a no trade with an opt out after two years. That is too much money but is the way it is in MLB today.
For what its worth, I believe Holliday has backed hisself into a corner and is left with no real alternative to playing for the Cardinals
One player, two teams. Cards aren’t one of them. When Holiday signs, St Louis must pick up something……….Lopez/Beltre…………. Boras knows they take a serious hit in season ticket sales if they try a 2008/2009 at this point. That is a direct provocation of AP……… I’m watching Pinero in the accumulating dead pool.
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/commishs-hot-stove/commishs-hot-stove/cardinal-beat-updates/2009/12/cardinals-kept-in-touch-with-derosa-but-made-no-offer/
It doesn’t take long for the BS to hit the fan. Derrick makes a call and has everyone dancing.
Most interesting since the same writer’s story in the morning said an offer had been tendered earlier but that part of the article has since been edited out. Perhaps better information was unearthed once interested parties read the earlier version…
Buster Olney: “Boras started doubling back to teams to talk about Holliday. Stated asking price in at least one conversation was $18 mill. a year.”
52, don’t sweat the bs, bluster, hot air and attitude. It comes from all directions. We are amusing ourselves talking about baseball not working out a doctoral thesis, although that would be fine too.
Got winter warm-up tickets for christmas, maybe Big Mac will show.. omg, maybe I can get Rubens autograph…. calm down…..deep breaths.
WC you sure like to talk your stuff like it is a fact.Pujols own agent has stated while it would be nice to have Holliday in STL it would NOT have any effect on AP staying in STL..So wheres the direct provocation to AP?
Come on out Jumbo (52). I didn’t mean to hurt your feelings. We will talk to you, once the other kids are tired of playing anyway.
Missed your earlier post RC. Mark was destined for the road before he took his first any bat. That’s not easy for anyone to figure it seems.
Pujols doesn’t care about Holliday in particular, but he has said he needs to see that the team is committed to winning. The Cards obviously have an opportunity to unequivocably prove their committment to winning by locking up Holliday. If they choose not to prove that committment with the opportunity staring them in the face, and do not pull off something else of equal significance, Albert would be foolish not to take a message from that. He does not care about ‘trying’ to make moves that will put a winning team on the field, he expects it to happen. With no other really good clean-up hitter options out there, failure to sign Matt could be seen as Mo and BDW not really being worried about satisfying Albert’s committment to win requirement. That could only mean they don’t plan to re-sign him. That would mean they will probably trade him this year before he gains 5-10 no trade status. That’s why not signing Matt and instead picking through the bargain bin would be a direct provocation of Albert.
Hey WC you didn`t hurt my feelings at all. i just call BS on your routine.Comprende WC?
Bw52: WCBW is anti-DeWitt/Mo/TLR/you name it, a negative minded fan. Monetary aspects to the game overtax his brain. His prognostications can sometimes be good, sometimes be way off the mark. He makes so many, he is helped by the law of averages because some turn out to be right.
Love it Jumbo……..WCBC…………whens the last time you called me that? Its like watching a bad ventriloquist. Have your 52 character say that……….then you can say WC like always. And stop drinking.
Brian, I will be taking a few days off while Jumbo sobers up. Happy New Year to all.
Love it Westie. Keep talking your blarney. Bling, Bw52, and I know the score, but some of us accept you anyway, as you are. We will teach you something about baseball whether you like it or not.
Yanks with Holliday win a few more games than Yanks with Gardner, but the Yanks are already going to win so many games that those extra wins are meaningless, therefore Holliday adds little value, nowhere near what he would cost. That is why they don’t care about Holliday according to an article on Fangraphs site.
So, trying my hand at a ‘marginal value of a win’ based theory, the extra wins the Bosox could have gotten from Bay or Holliday instead of Cammeron would not have been enough to catch the Yanks, so would have had little value. That’s why they showed Bay some respect and blew him off. If you look at whatever teams might have $80-90M to spend, how many extra wins might each expect over their present left fielder, and how much would those extra wins be likely to matter. The team whose extra wins would likely matter most will offer the most to Matt. My guess is the Cards come out on top of that.
Not so fast Jumbo. Bling has no idea who is who, or who’s side is which. Bw52 could be Jumbo in disguise, or maybe Bw52 is Westy pretending to be Jumbo in disguise. Or maybe Bw is BW. Bw52 might even be some normal baseball fan who now thinks this site is a bunch of mentally impaired psycos. I claim no knowledge whatsoever.
Happy New Year to you too Westy. Enjoy the snow falling over the lake. Think about the first person who ever saw it, many millenia before the paleo-indians, and know that they were thinking the same thing as you.
Westie is provocative and entertaining – perfect for today’s culture. Add in a touch of post modernism where the truth is whatever you see it to be and you’ve got Westie in a nutshell.
Yanks with Holliday win a few more games than Yanks with Gardner, but the Yanks are already going to win so many games that those extra wins are meaningless, therefore Holliday adds little value, nowhere near what he would cost. That is why they don’t care about Holliday according to an article on Fangraphs site.
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+1
Boston is probably the Wild Card team in the AL w/o Holliday or Bay.
So I agree with Bling: the Cards would seem to get more value from the wins Holliday would bring than any other team in the conversation.
Quick thought about DeRosa:
If we would’ve gotten him for 2 years/$12 million, that means we’re basically expecting 3 wins above a replacement-level player. I’m not sure we can’t get that from some combination of Freese/Craig/Jay taking his PAs in 2010-11.
And if assume the sandwich-round draft pick is worth ~ $2 million, and we could probably sign that pick for $1 million or less, then not signing DeRosa is worth at least $1 million to us.
That doesn’t come anywhere the value we gave up for him (Perez and Todd are going to worth a lot more than $1 million over their pre-free agency careers), but it’s better than compounding one mistake with another.
“better than compounding one mistake with another.”
I don’t see trading for DeRosa to have been a mistake lou, but I agree its a matter of opinion. The price was steep though as you point out. But consider the value to the Cards in wins as of last summer when the trade took place. Heading into the end of the season and post-season, the Cards with DeRo had a better chance than the Cards with Perez and Todd. That’s the part I like about it, even though now it doesn’t look so good.
Bling, good points. That’s what I was thinking when I called it a “mistake,” but didn’t phrase it as well as you did. Good idea at the time, didn’t work out, time to move on.
I wonder how confident the Mets are about Bay covering LF at Citi. Or rather, I wonder if their confidence will prove a mistake.
Bay to Mets will probably be bad for him and the Mets. He won’t be blasting homers in Citi, he will have problems with defense out there. The Mets still won’t be a winner. He won’t live up to the hype and the NY fans will start getting on him. It could turn ugly. He will be a gazilionaire though, and in the big apple.