Using unearned runs to measure fielding prowess, Cardinals minor leaguers don’t measure up to par.
By Ian Walton
During The Cardinal Nation’s top 40 Cardinals prospects countdown for 2010, I have been troubled by what I perceive to be a recurring theme. A number of the Cardinals minor league batters don’t seem particularly well-suited to the more challenging defensive positions, leaving the organization with a glut of hitters and limited places to play them.
As likely the case in many organizations, players are challenged to master the most difficult positions possible, but the Cardinals seem to be doing it more often and less successfully than others. As such, the current Cardinals system appears to be deploying more than its share of “natural” first basemen at third base and the corner outfield positions, corner outfielders in centerfield, second basemen at shortstop, and any player whatsoever at catcher.
In an attempt to test this theory, I needed a way to assess defensive metrics across the Cardinals system relative to their peers. Unfortunately, there isn’t much minor league fielding data out there for the taking, but MiLB does provide team-by-team run and earned run tallies. This allows us to evaluate unearned runs against the league average.
I certainly won’t claim that team unearned runs are the ideal measurement of fielding prowess, but they do provide one valid basis for comparison. I’m going to use the term “uERA” to represent a club’s unearned run average – the number of unearned runs allowed every nine innings. The following table compares the uERA of the Cardinals’ affiliates at each level of play to the rest of their league:
Table: 2009 Unearned Run Data
| Team | League | League uERA | Team uERA | Rank |
| St. Louis | MLB | 0.35 | 0.34 | 15 of 30 |
| Memphis | Pacific Coast League (Triple A) | 0.49 | 0.54 | 12 of 16 |
| Springfield | Texas League (Double A) | 0.67 | 0.66 | 4 of 8 |
| Palm Beach | Florida State League (Class A Advanced) | 0.69 | 0.78 | 11 of 12 |
| Quad Cities | Midwest League (Class A) | 0.71 | 0.86 | 10 of 14 |
| Batavia | New York-Penn League (Class A Short Season) | 0.85 | 0.84 | 9 of 14 |
| Johnson City | Appalachian League (Rookie) | 0.91 | 1.14 | 10 of 10 |
| GCL Cardinals | Gulf Coast League | 0.97 | 1.22 | 14 of 16 |
| VSL Cardinals | Venezuelan Summer League | 1.17 | 1.08 | 8 of 33 |
| DSL Cardinals | Dominican Summer League | 1.43 | 1.22 | 3 of 7 |
I find it particularly interesting that in 2009, every level of play in the US had a lower uERA than the one below it, reflecting expected defensive improvement as players gain experience. The Single A Midwest League yielded twice as many unearned runs per game as the major leagues and the Gulf Coast League gave up just shy of three times as many as MLB.
Of the US-based teams, only Springfield and Batavia (along with the major league Cardinals) managed league-average marks, while the other five affiliates allowed significantly more unearned runs than their league competitors. The Venezuelan and Dominican Cardinals both yielded far fewer unearned runs than league average, though one could only expect a relative handful of those players to even advance to play in the United States.
Although the upper levels of the Cardinals minor league system did skew younger than their competition this past season, there has to be some real concern over whether the organization will be able to supply enough major league-quality defenders in the years to come, the way that they have in recent seasons with Yadier Molina, Brendan Ryan, and Colby Rasmus.
While the current batch of Cardinals prospects may project to be adequate corner infielders and outfielders, there may be an especially noticeable dearth of quality prospects up the middle with standout offensive and defensive skills. The value of these types of players in St. Louis is even higher when paired with the Dave Duncan ground ball-oriented pitching focus.
With Albert Pujols hopefully slated to man first base for many seasons into the future and no designated hitter available in the National League, the Cardinals need to focus on acquiring and developing prospects who can field at an appropriate level to support their pitching philosophy. Offensive prowess alone is not enough.
Nice article Ian, is Brian on a beach somewhere? Do you have any thoughts as to why so many teams are below avg.? Drafting choices, instructional coaching on fielding, pushing them up too fast, or what? Also, I haven’t noticed the system being especially good at producing sluggers lately. The defensive side does seem to be an issue affecting the big league club. Guys like Freese and Craig I think are seen as a risk because of that. Wallace didn’t impress anyone in the AL as a third-baseman apparently.
Would the quality of the playing surface and the lighting tend to be worse the lower you go in the system, contributing to errors? For example, on the Muckdogs thread I noted that I’d looked at attendance in NY-P and App leagues, and it shows that a big difference in team revenues is likely between those leagues. The surfaces and lighting couldn’t possibly be as good in the App league as at higher levels, could they?
I wish I was on a beach, but that is not the case.
This subject is one that had generated considerable family discussion in recent weeks. As I was unable to satisfy his curiosity, Ian went and did his own research.
I can comment a bit on playing conditions based on personal observation only. From Palm Beach on up, I would characterize the home facilities as near-major league quality. As always, others are welcome to weigh in.
The River Bandit’s stadium in Davenport is a magnificent place to watch a ball game, especially after the most recent upgrades, but I never paid attention to what the playing conditions might be like. I’ve seen quite a few college summer league games in Hannibal. One time a couple of ground ball singles to left hit something and went over the fielders head. After the game I got a closer look and it appeared that some groundskeeping vehicle had been out there when the ground was soft and made some tracks which were still there some time later. Both hits were scored extra-base hits and I thought, man, those will look like line drives off the wall in the box score.
The Cards put a reasonable value on defense. I do not recall a time when there have been so many homegrown SSes up and down the system. In 2005, Rasmus, Greene, and Jones, the first three position players selected, had good speed and good defensive potential. In 2009, Stock is a roll of the dice on a good fielding catcher who we hope will hit. Kozma in 2007 was a choice predicated on the value of the position of SS.
The Cards have also invested some lower round draft picks in good collegiate hitters who do not project as good defenders. Its a matter of finding value in the draft. Allen Craig is a good example. If a strong fielder, he would not have been around at the 9th round for $15,000 bonus. Its the success of Craig, Hill, and Stavinoha as minor league hitters that have elevated them high enough in the system for people to wish they were better fielders. But this does not mean they were bad draft choices for the rounds and bonuses.
Teams knew on draft day that Brett Wallace was a ML hitter. He fell to 13 in the nation because of doubts he could field 3B. The Cards made a knowing choice, liking the certainty of his ability to hit. Then they flipped him to the As, obtaining value. The As picked 12th in 2008 and later expressed regret they had not chosen Wallace.
First time I’ve heard anyone say Stock is a good defensive catcher — where did you get that from?
Hmm….first time I’ve heard someone opine Stock does not have strong defensive aptitude.
I will divulge a little clue. When a catcher gets drafted in the 2nd round, the drafting team thinks he can field the position.
We can find hitters at lower rounds: Anderson (05-4th rd), Cutler (08-14), Hill (07-13), Roth (05-10), Reyes (06-27), Cruz (07-26). We can also find good field, no hit catchers: Pagnozzi(03-8), Motte (03-19), Mulligan (06-22), Derba (07-30), Carpenter (06-12). But when you place a bet up in the 2nd round, you hope he can do some of both. If Stock cannot do enough of each, he can fall back to pitcher like Motte, Mulligan, and David Carpenter.
Another defensive oriented draft pick in 2009 was 5th round SS Ryan Jackson. On the other hand, a collegiate hit machine pick was Ahmady (09-11), who the Cards may want to shift to 3B.
The number of guys who can do it all is not huge and they go high in the draft for big bucks. To maintain a minor league system, the Cards need to sign many more players, including some with just one or two skills.
“I will divulge a little clue. When a catcher gets drafted in the 2nd round, the drafting team thinks he can field the position.”
Of course if they really want that player to be a pitcher and think he may have to convert when it is shown he can’t hit or field adequately they may not e so picky about his defense. Or they may hope he can grow into a good enough defensive catcher (like they apparently hoped with Anderson). Or they may also realize (unlike you) there is a difference between being able to field the position and being good at fielding the position.
You may not have heard of his defensive short comings but I have read first hand reports of them. I believe (not sure) that one may have come from RC.
Thanks, BB. I’m no expert on the minor league system, so I couldn’t tell you the causes of these numbers for certain. I simply took the observations of others and compared them to some data. Certainly having younger teams and pitchers who throw more ground balls could skew the Cards affiliates toward more unearned runs, but I imagine that the Cardinals were unfortunate enough to draft a number of one-dimensional players. The guys with good gloves haven’t seemed to be developing their bats. Those that do aren’t high level fielders.
Personally, I would work toward trading more of these hitting prospects to the AL where they might have better opportunities to play in exchange for more versatile defenders.
Never new that Nutlaw was Ian – now just have to figure out who he is on Scout.
He doesn’t post there.
Jumbo, I’ve watched Stock catch more than I’d like to actually, and he is far from a defensive wizard. Great arm? Yes. Power in his bat? Yes. But as a catcher he lets the ball carry his glove out of the strike zone, and I mean badly. I believe this is what many people believe is Bryan Andersons main flaw and I’m here to tell you pitchers don’t like throwing to a catcher when those borderline pitches are carried off the plate and become balls instead of strikes.
Your conclusion Ian, particularly the last paragraph, is right on. Right now the Cardinal defense up the middle is good with Molina, Rasmus and Ryan. First base is solid. But it seems weak at third and in left and room for improvement at second. Right field is ok since Ludwick can hit.
It is a concern that down on the farm it is either good field no hit or okay hit no field . But the encouraging part is the farm can change in a hurry.
Unfortunately, George Kissell was mortal and I wonder how many instructors down there (on the farm) are left that were tutored by the master.
RCW, Stock is by age a college sophmore, who spent some time pitching. He can spend the next 3 or 4 years getting educated in the minors as a catcher.
The Cards have a bunch of catching prospects. Its great to have such depth. I feel hopeful about Bryan Anderson. He is not going to get handed a roster slot in the majors. But if he works hard, he can better himself. Its up to him.