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Brian Walton's news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals (TM) and their minor league system

Theories for McGwire’s delay

Why has Mark McGwire’s coming out party remained in his most familiar place – limboland?

Tony La Russa and Mark McGwire, 1997 (AP photo)While new St. Louis Cardinals hitting coach Mark McGwire spent years in isolation to avoid having to deal with steroids-related allegations, his final manager and newest boss Tony La Russa was often Big Mac’s staunchest defender.

For a number of years, La Russa had tried unsuccessfully to convince McGwire to rejoin the club just as a spring training instructor, though he was apparently close two years ago.

Then on October 26, during the press conference announcing La Russa’s return for a 15th season at the Cardinals helm in 2010, came the shocking news that Mac was coming all the way back – to become the full-time major league hitting coach.

With the 65-year-old La Russa admitting his three-decade career in the dugout is nearing its end, some believe that while the manager’s power and influence is greatest, he is taking his best and perhaps last shot at helping Big Mac.

The focus would be to:

  • Reintroduce McGwire to the baseball world
  • Rehabilitate his shattered image, and specifically
  • Improve the former slugger’s moribund Hall of Fame candidacy

One could certainly understand if La Russa feels a share of personal responsibility for the events of the past, but he could also just be continuing to fiercely defend one of his own. More than likely it is a mix of the two, with the split undoubtedly forever remaining a source of speculation.

Mark McGwire, March 17, 2005 (AP photo)Along with McGwire’s decision to accept the job came the baggage of having to step up to doing something he repeatedly told a Congressional hearing in March 2005 that he did not want to do – talk about the past.

This “coming out” event, expected to be a one-time-only affair, was said by general manager John Mozeliak in October to be occurring “sooner, rather than later”. In fact, the GM used those words at least three times that day the hiring was announced just to hammer home the point.

Earlier this month at Baseball’s Winter Meetings in Indianapolis, La Russa had this to say about the long-standing, yet impending event: “…I think it’s imminent.” That was two weeks ago and counting.

The above statements clearly reinforce the perception that the Cardinals are not in control of their new coach’s calendar. That doesn’t mean the club is not a very important stakeholder, as they will surely be the ringleader of the upcoming event and have a lot to lose if things go badly.

So why is it taking so long to get this event arranged and from where might the delay be coming? Here are some theories – not facts – theories. Like La Russa’s motives, the exact combination of potential ingredients will likely never be known.

Theory: It is taking a longer-than-expected time to coach the new coach and there are a number of groups engaged.

With Bud Selig’s fondness for the former slugger and his likely desire to avoid (more) bad publicity for the game, I can definitely see MLB being involved. After all, on the steroids issue, they have more sleeping dogs than the ARF kennels at midnight.

By coming out so enthusiastically in support of McGwire’s return, Selig reinforced the placement of the game itself shoulder-to-shoulder with the unwitting symbol of baseball’s past drug culture. Like it or not, everyone involved needs a good showing from Big Mac. As such, if MLB has not engaged the Nation’s best spin doctors (see Washington, D.C.) to assist, they are asleep at the switch.

The former player’s legal counsel would certainly have to be engaged, too. Here is hoping the advice offered, received and taken is more practical than it was in 2005. Hopefully with the passage of time, Congress will have moved on to other, far more pressing matters.

Theory: Postponing the event until later in the holiday season, a traditional downtime for baseball, would cut back the manic press coverage somewhat.

Theory: The ex-slugger may be having second thoughts, recognizing the press conference will likely prove to be comparable to enduring a double root canal without Novocain.

Mark McGwire (Getty Images)And finally, a different idea:

Theory: Skirting the 2010 Hall of Fame balloting and the immediate mandate on McGwire’s legacy it would represent.

I believe ballots for the current nominees are due to have been mailed and received by December 31. By waiting until after the votes are in, a full year would be required to pass before writers must make their firm and binding decision on the strength or weakness of McGwire’s explanation.

Because this is far from Big Mac’s first impression being made on the matter, he is not starting on a level playing field. Whatever he says will be micro-analyzed and nit-picked for weeks following the press conference. It is unavoidable.

The passing of 12 months would allow the initial emotion to wear off, the potential for others to either come forward or be ensnared in similar controversy and for McGwire to reinforce his rehabilitation by spending a season as a successful major league hitting coach. There would also be the opportunity to re-energize his high-profile charity work that either disappeared or at least went far underground with him, if deemed necessary to further the cause.

All of the above can potentially strengthen the prevailing view of McGwire, aided by Father Time.

By holding off saying anything even a bit longer – until after the January 6 announcement of the 2010 Hall vote – the “rehab McGwire” camp can gain another important data point – the knowledge of Mac’s 2010 vote total. The change from 2009 will represent the movement in voters’ thinking solely from the announcement of Big Mac’s return, prior to any explanation from the former player himself.

Based on articles penned by several Hall voters since October, I have been led to believe that McGwire has already boosted his share of the vote simply by saying he will talk. For reference, it has been hanging in the 20-25 percent range since McGwire first qualified, with 75 percent required for induction.

Another benefit of waiting well into January is to show respect to those who will be inducted into the Hall in 2010. Otherwise, the press will surely bombard the winners on their special announcement day with inappropriate McGwire questions that would detract from the new inductees’ well-deserved headlines. (This was previously cited as a reason to not hold the press conference during the period when the annual MVP, Cy Young, etc. awards were being rolled out during November.)

Following the January Hall announcement, “Team Big Mac” can then gauge how far they might need to take their one-time-only press conference and the other repair actions while preparing to re-institute radio silence on the past, this time for good.

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25 Responses to “Theories for McGwire’s delay”

  1. bigchieftootiemontana says:

    The theory about holding off McGwire’s press conference until after the Hall of Fame 2010 induction vote announcement in January sounds like a good idea especially in showing respect to the honorees, then have the McGwire media event late January.

    Brian, I appreciate your daily topics concerning anything/everything Cardinal.

  2. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Solid analysis Brian. All these could be considerations.

    or

    Ed Sullivan had the brilliant idea to have only one act a time on stage. Clearly Maguire is waiting back stage. Question is, who is running this show, and why is it that they want to hold our undivided attention on what is now their chosen entertainment. If you stare at the stage, seemingly empty, you’re bound to see something quite important to them. Eventually………

  3. JumboShrimp says:

    Big Mac has ascended into Jumbo’s Hall of Fame already!!

    The Cards have had lots of news going on, so its not like the world is waiting with bated breathe for this press conference. Maybe they will do it just before the start of spring training.

    Mo and DeWitt positioned themselves as in favor of a press conference ASAP. This covers them against second guessers.

    Now its up to Big Mac. I think he ought to say what he wants to say, why not the truth? Say he was just one among countless athletes, across many sports, who used some natural molecules to restore muscles. There was no monitoring program, so smart competitive athletes used helpful molecules, pitchers as well as batters, even Roger Clemens and Andy Pettite. Even Mrs. Clemens was taking steroid shots. Nothing to apologize for, Mac can endorse the monitoring program that has been developed by MLB and the MLPA. He could say he wishes it existed back when he played. The game needs monitoring, to protect the players from innuendo and denigration. McGwire should know.

  4. CariocaCardinal says:

    Having thought about this a little more the idea of holding off to a time of reduced press coverage would seem to run counter to any goals of rehabilitating McGwire or of trying to put this issue to rest and move on.

  5. blingboy says:

    Its likely that when Mark and Cards brass sat down with the lawyers and PR people, the list of issues and landmines kept growing and snowballing. Coming up with a plan of action that avoids the landmines and leads to 75% of the votes is proving to be impossible. He’s going to have to step on a few, take some hits. Calling it off now guarantees no HOF.

    If he talks, admits it, he will be asked about Tony’s involvement, what he knew, what his position was, etc. What’s MM suppossed to do then? Go back to the ‘don’t want to talk about the past’ thing? There’s no end to the minefield.

  6. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    CC raises an interesting point BB. One way or another…….someone is in control of this, and I doubt its Tony/Mark at this point. The Magician holds your attention with one gesture, then makes the switch with another……………………..Whats to hide? I have shared my opinions there.

  7. JumboShrimp says:

    Maguire is a large person, in several respects. McGwiere will decide when to talk and what to say. He probably will not be using a bunch of PR consultants to give tips on how to lie.

  8. CariocaCardinal says:

    Wow Jumbo – botched McGwire’s name twice in one line in different ways. Too bad you used “he” next time or you could have gone for the trifecta rsrsrs

  9. blingboy says:

    Right you are Westy, and CC. MLB and the owners pulled off a wopper. They hadn’t counted on Tony showing up with big Mac on his arm. How awkward, like when the body comes floating back up. There is not much he can say that won’t screw the pooch. The ideal plan would be for him to majically get the votes, skip the induction speech, and sink back into the muck.

  10. JumboShrimp says:

    If he is Big Mac, how about MacGuire, for the trifecta?

    McGwire should just tell the truth or explain why he cannnot elaborate about some things. He is just taking a job of batting coach, not running for election like the chaps on Capitol Hill who made a hullabaloo about steroid supplements in baseball, while ignoring football.

  11. blingboy says:

    Suppose the truth is that he was loading up from day one, and so was everybody else, and Tony knew all about it, and so did the GM and the owners and the other managers and GM’s and owners, and so did Bud and all the players, and it was a.o.k. as long as they were blasting homers and selling tickets and pumping tv ratings. I’m just saying supposing, now. But if so, I’m sure you can see where ‘just telling the truth’ does not work on many levels. Whatever the ‘truth’ actually is, it doesn’t work or he’d have told it by now. The delay is due to trying to find truth which works for all concerned. You might want to check out “The Meaning of Truth” by the philosopher William James. He points out that since the world cannot be halted for an objective analysis, a fact cannot objectively be declared true or false. Since it subjective, the ‘truth’ of a belief depends upon its usefullness to the believer.

  12. JumboShrimp says:

    Bling, now safely past required reading for school, I do not read any books on philosophy, by choice. Lots of managers and coaches in multiple sports in recent decades have to suspect players used steroid supplements to help muscles. That is not a hot secret. Was it their responsibility to monitor the supplements taken by players? No.

    Is McGwire going to accuse TLR of knowing he used steroids? No. McGwire can say some things about himself,, whatever he feels appropriate and is willing to share. Regarding others, he can say he thinks PED use was once widespread, but not rat on anybody or engage in speculative gossip. He can applaud adoption of a PED monitoring system by MLB and the MLPA, which serves to protect the game and protect players against unkind rumors. He can say he wishes this was put into place during the 1970s, so he could have benefited from this when he played MLB. In modern times, anyone who excels in baseball, becomes a target for allegations. McGwire can say he learned a lot about hitting and would like to pass along his knowledge to others. His job will be batting coach. He cannot control what others choose to say about him, he will just focus on doing his job and contributing to the team.

  13. blingboy says:

    I don’t blame you Jumbo, I hated reading philosophy and I especially hated William James, I was just trying to sound smart. Louis l’amour is more like it. I’m not so sure the boilerplate contrition platitudes and generalizations will get him into the hall, thats all. I think that’s the objective more so than contributing to the team. I could be wrong. I’ll love seeing him in uniform again.

  14. JumboShrimp says:

    I don’t read Bill’s brother Hank, either. Nor L’amour, but if I had to read one of the three, I am not sure who to select. Maybe Bill’s “Varieities of Religious Experiences” would help me understand shamen.

    Some people think its about the Hall of Fame. I am not so sure. If he wanted to campaign for the Hall of Fame, there are other ways to go about it, without being a batting coach.

    TLR has wanted Mark to coach for years. TLR may retire in a while, so for McGwire, maybe its now or never, to do some coaching.

    My advice to McGwire is not to spout a lot of weaselly BS like Giambi or A-Rod. Just be honest or explain why you cannot discuss certain matters. Say what you can and then say you are hear to do a job and will focus on just doing that. If he becomes a distraction in the media, he will go back into retirement.

  15. CariocaCardinal says:

    So Blinger, what do you think Mac can say that would get him to the hall?

  16. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Yeah, I stuck the needle in……………. but I didn’t push on the plunger!

  17. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    My opinion? I could care less. Its a game. They changed the rules. Now he gets a 15 yard penalty. So what. Play ball.

    My new style………7 sentences………….with one blow…………..fantastic.

  18. blingboy says:

    CC, I can’t think of anything he could say that would help. My opinion is that the PED guys will either eventually get in en-masse, or they won’t en-masse. And the particulars of their off-field conduct and statements won’t matter. Whatever he chooses to say will have the effect of making one group mad or another, but time will reduce that to insignificance.

    Jumbo, I can save you the effort of reading it. He believes that if you want to improve your grasp of religion, talk to a psycologist rather than a cleric. That would most likely be the way to better understand our shaman as well.

    “I stuck the needle in……………. but I didn’t push on the plunger!” That really messed me up Westy, I’ve been into the sacremental wine. How about “if I hear any insincerety, I’m swinging this fungo”

  19. blingboy says:

    It will be interesting to see if his vote numbers are significantly up or down this time. If down, maybe he bails. Perhaps his handlers want to see the vote before settling on a final strategy.

  20. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    No hidden depth BB. A play on Bill Clinton’s ” I smoked Pot, but I didn’t inhale’. PED’s weren’t illegal at the time…………..allot of folks experimented……..end of story…………….this bull sh-t doesn’t have to be washed with Babe Ruth’s underwear for god sake. These are enfeeble old white men trying to shorten some d-cks……….and make a buck at the same time. Hell with them. Play ball.

    I would say, ” many competitive athletes explored all possible avenues to heighten performance. No laws were broken. This is regulated now, and I think rightly so. Those that experimented have certainly paid a price for their competitive explorations. Lets all move on and find the joy that comes from playing this wonderful game.” I am!

  21. CariocaCardinal says:

    Westie, I believe steroids were illegal (by law) just not specifically banned by MLB. And, the use of illegal drugs was a violation of major league baseball policy.

  22. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    legality……..what a game. I look at it like the evolution of the Olympic ideal. Its a good idea. The witch hunt was part of the Bush legacy. There is a massive money angle here.

  23. JumboShrimp says:

    http://espn.go.com/columns/farrey_tom/1655597.html

    Steroids were velly, velly good for Arnold.

  24. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Thanks Jumbo.

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