The St. Louis Cardinals are getting to the point where they need to force Scott Boras to declare his hand regarding Matt Holliday.
Those who read this blog regularly may think I am making a major flip-flop here.
After having been a consistent critic of Boston general manager Theo Epstein for his long history of paying off bad contracts (see photo for one example), why would I now be encouraging his St. Louis Cardinals counterpart John Mozeliak to model his behavior after the Red Sox leader?
Here’s why.
Both GMs were in a similar situation this off-season, having acquired high-profile but impending free agent outfielders via trade. The Sox picked up Jason Bay in the summer of 2008 while the Cardinals added Matt Holliday this July.
Each club wanted their player back for 2010 and beyond, but their approaches have differed.
Epstein made what appears to be a fair, early offer to Bay, which was turned down. He reportedly came back with a second proposal, but when it seemed clear it would not be accepted, Boston moved on.
The Sox have since signed a lesser replacement outfielder in Mike Cameron, but also added free agent pitcher John Lackey, are trying to dump another bad contract in Mike Lowell and are rumored to be after first baseman Adrian Gonzalez in trade.
Mozeliak waited to make his initial offer to agent Scott Boras for Holliday. He then reportedly “tweaked” his bid.
Unlike Epstein, Mo has been unclear on his strategy following his second offer. Beyond the one-year deal with Brad Penny, the Cardinals have not moved to fill other needs, given the need to settle the Holliday situation first. But how long can St. Louis wait?
Comments directly attributed to Mozeliak in recent days are contradictory. One report had him setting a hard deadline with Boras mid-week this week while others indicate he is shying away from drawing a line in the sand.
Boras may not have any other clubs deeply interested in his client and as such, given his way, he would string the Cardinals along as long as it takes to unearth a second, higher bidder – but only if they let him.
There are differing rumors as to the depth of the Mets’ interest in Holliday. Sports Illustrated reports New York may be speaking with Boras on Wednesday, but it could be only a ploy to try to get Bay committed. ESPN’s Buster Olney has the Mets taking a more passive stance, noting they are “monitoring the Holliday negotiations, but are not actively involved”, and suggesting Holliday is out of the price range of the New Yorkers.
If the Cardinals have made a pair of fair bids and Boras won’t accept, it may very soon be time to move on, as Epstein did rather than continue to indefinitely chase after Bay.
But there is the issue of exactly what the Cardinals bid is. Is it fair? Is it aggressive? Is it five years or eight years?
On Tuesday, Olney wrote this about the Cardinals plans: “the intention is to stand on a five-year offer”. At the end of his article, Olney acknowledges the bid reported by Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch “worth about $16 million for as much as eight years” without even attempting to rationalize the two seemingly-conflicting rumors.
Some possibilities for the mismatch:
- The rumors were captured at different times. What was the Cardinals’ offer “pre-tweaking”?
- The rumors could have been sourced from different camps. If one had to guess, one might expect that the P-D may be getting their information from St. Louis while ESPN may be closer to Boras’ lips.
- The two may have a different interpretation of how variations like escape clauses, options and buyouts are reflected.
Not all contracts are the same, even when supposedly for the same duration. Here are some examples from what could be an almost infinite number of possibilities:
- An eight-year contract with a player escape clause after five years is an eight-year contract, but obviously one with a huge hole in it.
- A five-year contract with three subsequent option years is generally not considered an eight-year contract until the options are picked up or vested through incentives like appearances, innings pitched or at-bats.
- An eight-year contract with only five years guaranteed is not an eight-year contract. It is nothing more than misleading wording for a five-year contract with three option years.
- An eight-year contract with five years guaranteed, three option years and a buyout for the final three years is still just a five-year contract. Its minimum, quoted value is higher – the total of years one through five, plus the buyout amount.
For example, Albert Pujols signed a seven-year, $100 million contract in 2003. Year eight, covering 2011, is an option at $16 million or the Cardinals can decline, paying Albert a $5 million buyout. The $5 million was added to the $95 million in salary for years one through seven to reach the $100 million minimum commitment. Once the year eight option is formally picked up by the Cardinals, the deal will become eight years, $111 million.
Another example is Adam Wainwright’s contract, signed prior to the 2008 season. It covers four years for a total of $15 million. That is the quoted amount. In addition there are club options for years five and six that will total either $21 million or $22 million. The higher amount is based on winning the Cy Young Award in either of the next two seasons. Just one top five placement in the vote in either upcoming season guarantees the final two option years for Wainwright. That would upgrade his deal to six years, $36 million or $37 million.
Whether any of these possibilities are among what is being discussed between Boras and Mozeliak remains to be seen. But whatever Mo does, it is just about time to channel his inner Theo. Here is hoping he is up to it.
Good coverage Brian. Damon’s half hearted rumblings are a tiny bit revealing. The Yankee’s are pressuring Boras for time. He has risk.
Mo and DeWitt have dealt with Boras a lot in the past, and they will negotiate with him in future. If they think their chances on Holliday are near zilch, they will move on of their own choice.
All things considered, the market does not seem red-hot. The Giants are not bidding high. The Cubs have been quiet. The Angels are not doing a great lot. The Dodgers are really messed up with the owners divorce. Anybody want to buy the Astros? Drayton McLane will call you back if you leave a message. The Rangers spent themselves into bankruptcy. Its just no fun anymore being an owner. There may not really be Global Warming (Hide the Decline), but there is sure a global Depression. While the Red Sox have been relatively enormous spenders, for LF they decided to be satisfied with Cameron. Is anybody talking about Jermaine Dye, I have not heard? There are plenty of players out there. Does anyone care if Jason Bay signs or retires?
The Cards went hard and fast after Penny. They know how to be decisive.
Maybe right now the Birds are paying respect to Holliday and Boras. If the Cards were to move on, Boras and Holliday might lose face owing to lack of bids. I have flip flopped. I used to think give Boras a firm deadline and move on. But the marketplace seems so soft, overall, I can understand hanging loose.
The Cards probably offered 5 years for sure, then some team options. This may have been reported by the Post Dispatch in a way to make it sound like an amazing 8 year offer, fooling me at least. But DeWitt is cagey and does not want to bid against himself. So he has telegraphed he could go up to 8 years, but only if another bidder emerges. If not, 5 years will be high bid. Its not because Holliday is a ho-hum player, rather its a ho-hum market. If there were a lot of money burning a hole in the pockets of GMs, there would seem more excitement about free agents. Baseball economics is connected to the real world, and out in the real world, too many people are hurting or worried.
It all depends on which players the Cardinals have identified as their Plan B and how many of them there are. Just tonight, Mike Gonzalez and Garrett Atkins have reportedly come to terms with Baltimore and players are signing each day. Moving on does not mean bridges have to be burned, but I think the Cards should be exploring their alternatives as vigorously as Boras is looking for a higher bidder for Holliday. I would be very uneasy leaving Boras in control indefinitely.
The Orioles are spending a little money, but Akins was a 1 year deal IIRC, Gonzalez just 2. Nothing massive, but good for Os fans. They have nowhere to go but up.
Housing values in some places are off 40 percent. Lots more people are looking at foreclosures and that will soften values more. The Administration is a trillion down and looking to expand health care, and run General Motors, instead of trying to live within our means. The Prez is zipping off to Cophenhagen to chase the Olympics for Chicago for crying out loud or to talk about Global Warming, increasingly evident to be an utter fraud and farce, Al Gore becoming Bernie Madoff. The President’s popularity is sinking, because people do not think the Administation is focused on trying to improve the economy or has a smart sense of what to do.
Given this chaos, team owners have to be skeptical about what they will encounter in 2010. Its a good time to go for short deals, like Cameron. The economy could give DeWitt a chance to lock up Holliday on reasonable terms.
Jumbo is the wise sage tonight. Love the Gore/Madoff thing. Maybe since the Mutts are ‘interested’ in MH, the Cards should be ‘interested’ in JB. Not a bad plan B. Not to be crude, but Scottie would fall through his anus.
It is reported the Orioles are bidding on Holliday. That will help move the market along.
The Orioles traded for Kevin Millwood and signed the southpaw closer Gonzalez. Both are clients of Scottie B. The O’s also picked up Akins, Holliday’s team-mate from yesteryear. The Orioles seem like high rollers this winter. They can either land Holliday or push up his price for DeWitt.
Be it noted, in todays P-D, Penny mentions the Cards have given him a contract that does not allow them to offer him arbitration after this season if he qualifies for Type A status, thus holding down his earning power. The Birds must have given a deal like this to Grudzielanek, during 2005.
Thanks for pointing out the Penny waiver, Jumbo. I see it as a sleeves out of their vest move by the Cardinals akin to a Cy Young bonus. Penny didn’t even reach Type B considering 2008 and 2009 results so would need a tremendous 2010 to become a Type A next winter. As good as Pineiro’s 2009 was, he couldn’t make it to the top 20 percent of NL starters over two years. More than likely if Penny has a good season, he will raise himself to Type B, the Cards can painlessly offer arbitration and get the sandwich pick if he moves on for 2011.
” Anthopoulos said, “knowing how Roy felt about Philadelphia and the fact that they were a World Series team the last two years and knowing that Roy truly is a guy that’s not about the money”
Give me this type of guy every time whose not gonna hold out for the ultimate dollar. Man that is refreshing to see nowadays.
Agree, RC.
IMO, a big factor in Boras’s ‘success’ is his ability to ‘cure’ guys of that. Happy that Roy didn’t hook up with him early on.
Buster Olney says Orioles interest in Holliday is old news: “The Orioles had brief contract talks with Matt Holliday 10 days ago, but they haven’t been active for awhile and are dormant now.”
The Baltimore Sun report is in line with Olney’s report.
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/schmuck/2009/12/zrebiec_no_holliday_for_os.html
I’ve heard Boras is now touting MH as a ‘corner outfielder’, able to play right or left. Can’t find anything about it anywhere though. If true, I take it as grasping at straws, or is he capable of being a regular right fielder? it sounds absurd.
If Chris Duncan can start Game 6 in RF against the Tigers in 06, then Matt Holliday can play RF for 162 games. Boras is positive about his young men and I have no problem with that.
The P-D has clarified their understanding of the Cardinals offer to Holliday to be only five guaranteed years at $15 million to $16 million, as ESPN first said the other day. They had said before the offer was up to eight years and would be the biggest Cardinals contract ever. Now they are saying six years at that annual amount would be as far as StL will probably go. That would still be less than Pujols’ 2003 contract in total dollars. link