The 2007 National League champion Colorado Rockies featured a pair of hard-hitters in the number three and number five spots in their batting order, Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins. Holliday had become a regular in 2004, with Atkins joining the next season, but now both 29-year-olds are former Rockies.
Each struggled during the first half of the 2009 season, but a second change of scenery helped Holliday substantially while Atkins’ surprising funk continued from April until October. As a result, the latter became one of the most prominent names non-tendered on Saturday. The reason was clear – the third baseman’s 2009 on-field performance was out of line with his compensation.
After having averaged 22 home runs and 105 RBI over the previous four seasons, Atkins hit rock bottom in 2009. Atkins could do nothing with the bat and eventually lost his job to the younger and cheaper Ian Stewart.
With Atkins being arbitration eligible and coming off a $7.05 million salary in 2009, the Rockies apparently didn’t want to take a chance on having to pay for a longer-term view in arbitration so they cut the right-handed hitter loose.
With Atkins now on the open market and the Cardinals apparently at least somewhat interested in a third baseman, I thought it might be enlightening to look at the two, accused by some as having been products of the mile-high atmosphere in Denver.
There is no doubt which of the two is the better player, by any comparison. Yet depending on the environment, the gap narrows.
| AB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | Away/home | GA % MH | ||
| Holliday | Career | 3237 | 0.318 | 0.387 | 0.545 | 0.933 | ||
| Coors | 1360 | 0.357 | 0.422 | 0.643 | 1.066 | |||
| Away | 1587 | 0.284 | 0.353 | 0.454 | 0.808 | 75.8% | ||
| w/StL | 235 | 0.353 | 0.419 | 0.604 | 1.023 | |||
| AB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | Away/home | GA % MH | ||
| Atkins | Career | 2788 | 0.289 | 0.354 | 0.457 | 0.811 | 86.9% | |
| Coors | 1356 | 0.327 | 0.385 | 0.507 | 0.892 | 83.7% | ||
| Away | 1432 | 0.252 | 0.324 | 0.411 | 0.735 | 82.4% | 91.0% |
Observation: Holliday seems more of a Coors product than Atkins when comparing individual home and road performance. The former’s career road OPS was just over 75 percent of his Coors OPS, while the third baseman’s away OPS was over 82 percent of his Coors mark.
Note: For the Holliday data above, some explanation is appropriate. The “Away” data includes his results in all road ballparks over his career. The “w/StL” numbers include his entire stats while with the Cardinals, both home and away, and are included for reference only.
Observation: The gap between Atkins and Holliday was smaller away from Denver. Atkins’ career road OPS compared to Holliday is substantially closer (91 percent of Holliday’s) than it was at Coors (83.7 percent).
To temper the enthusiasm a bit…
| AB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | GA % MH | ||
| Holliday | 2009 Oak | 346 | 0.286 | 0.378 | 0.454 | 0.831 | |
| Atkins | 2009 | 354 | 0.226 | 0.308 | 0.342 | 0.650 | 78.2% |
Observation: As much as Holliday struggled in Oakland prior to his July 24 trade to St. Louis, Atkins’ season-long problems in Colorado were comparatively more severe. Atkins’ 2009 OPS was 78.2 percent of Holliday’s Oakland outcome.
The bottom line question regarding Atkins’ future value is whether 2009 was an anomaly or his first four seasons as a Major Leaguer were instead the outlier. Some club will pay to find out. Will it be St. Louis?
The answers about Atkins ability to rebound may not lie in his statistics, but in his contexts. Khalil Greene did not rebound with the Cards to his 2007 production, because of suffering unusual outlook problems. Scott Spiezio had good production with the Angels, signed a bigger contract with the Mariners, then slumped; off-field reasons were discovered in 2007.
There do not have to be sinister reasons for a decline with Atkins. He could have begun the year slow and then been phased out with Ian Stewart. Or he could have made so much money that he could not handle success and stay on track.
Its understandable the Rockies would not want to re-sign Atkins, given his enormous 2009 salary. It would have no sense to give arbitration. Atkins market value should be a lot lower this winter. He needs to do well in 2010 to stay in the majors.
A number of teams will want this player. The Coaching problems and eventual change may have been a factor. This is a guy you go after immediately with an incentive based contract. Will we?
Hopefully Mo learned a lesson last year and will not let a .226 guy anywhere near Tony and a lineup card ever again. Lets focus some vibes on this one guys.
Does Atkins have the versatility to play anywhere but 3rd? If not, no use in signing him.
On a TLR team, every infielder can play the outfield!
Seriously, Atkins has played some first base and left field in the majors and even made one (emergency?) appearance at second base in 2008. He also played a lot at first in the minors.
1st Base doesn’t count as a playable position on this team!
Fair point, but he is at least as versatile as Glaus. Not arguing in Atkins’ favor, mind you. I was just curious and decided to take a quick look. Cardsfan914 from TCN message board sent me a PM that shows a consistent decline in Atkins’ road OPS in recent seasons. I encouraged him to post it over here to provide more discussion fodder.
Part of the versatility arguement for a corner infielder is their offensive production. The higher the production, the more ‘versatile’ they magically become. Albert was versatile enough to play all four corner positions his first few years. There is speculation in Oakland now as to whether Wallace will prove versatile enough to play third, or even first, or whether he is really just a DH. I’m sure the versatility of his glove will end up depending on his bat. However versatile Atkins might happen to be, he’d be far more so if his OPS was .900.
I’ve been watching some of the vintage baseball games, 70s / 80s. Everyone’s stance was closed. Rarely did you see a perfectly square stance. Chins tucked under the front shoulder, pushing the bat way behind. The swing bringing and keeping the hands in the zone with good extension. That described Hal McRae’s swing to. With the advent of the Cutter (Rivera/Pedro etc), and bringing on the more frequent change of speeds, pushing the full change-up to a less predictable or recognizable status, the competitive dialog began to change (effect) hitting. The idea that you can just take the slider and breaking pitch out in front created a temptation to open early, pulling the hands through with no extension.
To the point. Good teams teach closed to square (Holiday,DeRosa, Lugo), even though the hands are rarely pushed back as far. Competitive solutions being to hit off field when necessary, Keep swings shorter, work the count with your increased scouting preparations (Technology+scouting and statistical resources)……………………………… The Cardinals suck, (have sucked)? as hitters with these concepts. I still remember the few new players that have done time here. Lopez 08, and the three mentioned above. Even Green for a few moments. All with superior approaches, slowly diluted in the, can’t copy Albert or an Attaboy from Hal. Skip has a mystery swing, whose defense is at least a willingness to punch opposite field. He opens up way to soon. If Mark M. comes in here, and Shu is his poster boy, (Herzog’s questioning) we’re history any which way you look at it…………………………… Garret Atkinson has two hand and two legs and he comes from outside this system, (Colorado hitters are better, and not sure if Freese wants to play baseball anyway),…………so bring him on!
Here’s a nice article which increases my optimism about Penny. It’s also worth noting which gipped Cy Young candidate faced the tough competition and which Cy Young winner skated.
http://actasports.com/sows.php
Also, there’s a piece in the P-D site with a DD interview. Likes Wang. Need an 8th inning guy. Penny should work on useing change-up effectively.
thanks for the link bb, I share your optimism on the Penny signing, would really like to see Smoltz signed for that late innings spot–meaning 7, 8 and/or 9. At this stage of his career he can really shut down 5 or 6 hitters most of the time it seems.
If McGwire can improve the team hitting this season that will be most welcome !
Patience, know your hitting zone, visualization,yada yada yada-hit the darn ball!
Sound advice all.
Chief, when it comes down to it, “see the ball hit the ball”, is almost an exercise in Zen meditation. It is a thought that should arise without obstruction or hindrance above all distraction. Even above the turbulence of the most meticulous preparations.
Cards offer is 8/120 espn radio, eee gad!!
Heavy on the years, hopefully there is an opt out for the team and Matt. That many years makes that amount of money more palatable.
The Cards have made a strong offer. 8 years is a good long stretch.
The years are usually the first criterion for negotiation. Bay turned down 4 years and is supposedly looking for 5. Boston decided to go with Cameron for 2, instead of Bay or Holliday.
With Holliday, the Cards have a guy from their territory (Oklahoma), who is 29 years old. 8 years will take him out to 37. He has a good tight swing.
Veteran free agency is not for the weak. Its a tough environment, negotiating with Boras and competing with all sorts of other sharks.
In this economy, does any team want to up the Cards and bid 9 years?
Now that David Freese has completely revealed his low IQ (2 DUI’s and maybe 3. Did he really skid off the highway because of ice or did he have too many Busch products in his system?), I think it now puts Mo is a position of having to go after a 3b. Garret Atkins could be had for a one year insentive laden contract or maybe even Troy Glaus. He must be healthy by now, he got all the injuries out of the way last year. Third base has now officially become the Cards Achillies Heel. Beltre’s signing with Boston should be announced shortly so that leaves him out. DeRosa is too much of a risk coming off wrist surgery for his price. Any way we can get Brett Wallace back???
Its hard to know what to say about Freese. Its getting pretty unacceptable to be drinking and driving at 3 am. If you must quaff 7 beers, hire a taxi. OTOH, pro jocks are not alter boys, librarians, or accountants; some have animal spirits. Mo might look to recruit one more 3Bman. But I doubt Glaus will ever play 3B regularly again.
On the bright side, I am looking forward to Mulder pitching for the Brewers.
Mets can’t yet get Bay done, so approach Boras on Holliday, says Jon Heyman of SI: link
Boras desperately needs another bidder, but is this one serious?
I thought the Mets got Madoffed.
There is the appearance that some of my earlier “chagrin” was well founded. Red Sox are just dickering on a price for Gonzales as they dangle Buckholz and Ellsbury. That takes them out of the Albert sweepstakes anyway. Bay is waiting to see if that goes through which makes him the left fielder again…………….No one wants to go close to the Mets unless they offer vulgar excess. That is a black hole. The absents of any evidents of a “valid” formal offer by the Cardinals on Holiday now stinks to high heaven. The evidents is the lack of a Cardinal deadline that they were threatening earlier. Yankees are back in control of the Market lock down, the Cardinals apparently in agreement.
Oddly enough, if SD gives up Gonzales, the Yankees have to respond with Holiday. All those players out there just waiting to solve our problems, and the Cardinals just sit behind the nobility of their landmark offer to Holiday………………………what ever that is. One ripple after the next pushing us farther back toward the groom abandoned at the altar. I’ll say this again. A valid offer and a deadline pressures Boris. His job is on the line. The Cardinals will go no farther than they have. The looming variable here, completely unpredictable in my estimatin, is the relationship of Albert Pujols to the Cardinals. Clearly he sees the difficulty ahead if Holiday signs. Will he actually be relieved to play the big draw for a losing franchise all by himself.
Also, the Dave Duncan appearance recently is not without purpose.
Come on Westy, it sure doesn’t take much to send you scampering back into the wood pile. The Mutts have too many holes to get to wrapped up in one guy, even if they hadn’t gotten scammed. They are just trying to come to gripps with the fact Bay was just using them to get more from the Sox. Now the Sox didn’t buy it and Bay isn’t taking their calls anymore, looking further west. They need to convince their fans they are trying, a trick Mo and BDW can spot a mile away. I’m 100% sure the Mutts are on Matt’s ‘not in a million years’ list. He’s been to Queens, he knows the whole place smells like a urinal.
I wish the world was as simple as your seeing it BB……………………I know that it is not. Bays agent is over his head here. He may have to eat this Mets offer in the end. The Yankee’s have the privilege of lording the market……….because they do. Boras and Cashman are simply trying to control the market………and they are. The exception is the financial viability of SD. If the Red Sox pull off this trade for Gonzales…….new ballgame. If they don’t, the Yankees don’t need to block or take Holiday. If Boras has no time, and Holiday ends up looking at the Mets…….he is fired. There is risk in the game he plays. He almost tunneled last year.
Of all the teams that might know this, St Louis is the one. I doubt you will see Holiday and Pujols play together for more than a year in the most optimistic scenario. The Cardinals control their destiny here……………you don’t think that the Boras agreement with Cashman has dangerous consequences for Boras. This is Godfather type of stuff.
I thought for a moment that I might have been wrong. It appears that the Cards are being exposed again just waiting for someone to take Holiday away. Boras is not trying to gough the Cardinals for more money……….he is stalling them………and they are counting on it. Once again they are playing……..but not to win…….but to fulfill a financial plan.
Very decent of you to say it’s the worldview that’s simple. Lesser men would have made it personal……..
………. I seriously doubt anyone will wake up to find a horse’s head in their bed, or sleep with the fishes or whatever. I agree Boras knows there is no more money to be had from BDW, and that he is indeed stalling. He will be dickering over minutia, lamenting the injustice, cursing the darkness, all the while hoping for a miricle. It’s been the same way countless times going way back with every bubble there has ever been. In a rising market, sellers lounge about smoking stogies, its a hard habit to break.
If you read the Heyman article (SI), which I think has been edited a little, and the Olney article (ESPN), it is pretty clear there is some spinning going on, as Boras would want it to be if he where behind it. Heyman now says the Mets are at 4/60-65 and maybe will go 5/75 for Bay. Olney has stopped talking about 8 and is now talking 5/80 as the Cards offer for MH, saying the Mets have shown interest but MH ‘may be out of their price range’. What?? The spin is that the Cards bid for MH is hardly more than the Mets bid for JB. Mo will not fall for such nonsense. A most clumsy effort to scare up more money.
BB, you are very perceptive. Your logic reveals your hopes…….and needs in many ways. This is true for all of us. You conclusions are valid per the density and function of the “value equation” your fueling. For our own edification, we often steam line an equation (View/outlook) so much it becomes linear. This can create faults in any conclusion we arrive at whose values are off the mark. It is apparent that I am non-linear evaluator in a functioning differential equation. I’m prepared to reevaluate or recalibrate at any moment do to new revelations. Example: the Cameron in front of the Green Monster mystery. Now we see that I was right to recognize that oddity in that move. It had purpose beyond the scope of the obvious negation of Jason Bay. Red Sox need Bay. They will have him. They are attempting a big deal with SD and need no competition. They know Bays agent will call them before he pulls the trigger on any idiot deal. They’re negotiating with Bay as they put together a team in a competitive market. Tough business. If they succeed we loose Holiday for sure…………..oh yeah…Bay isn’t right for the Yankee club house. Holiday is perfect.
Westy: “It is apparent that I am non-linear evaluator in a functioning differential equation.”
I think you have a modelling and proofs problem Westy. As you are no doubt aware, “if a prediction from the equations leads to some conclusions which are by no means close to the real-world future behavior, then we should modify and “correct” the underlying equations.”
Here is a self-help book for you.
http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470178140.html
Perhaps that isn’t a good analogy. Successful anyway.
This one is for Brian. Chances of Albert ever getting to Free Agency are slim and none. It would be the Yankee’s only chance. If you were the Red Sox, and knew that trade material might be the only way you could make the move with the Cardinals, what you stock up on? Bingo! If they get Gonzales, Yankees may take Holiday, Cardinals puss out, Albert asks to be traded, Red Sox give Gonzales and prospects. Is B. Epstein that good? Only a few teams would have the extension money. If the Yanks sign Holiday, Jeter come up in 2011 for at least 25 a year, they are going to be wearing some serious obligations. What other teams could to offer quality players that aren’t carrying serious contract baggage, which the Cards would refuse, that could afford 200+ million?
What ever Boston is doing, they’re not afraid to gamble, or loose money trying to win.
Hey Westy, I’d like your opinion on something. A team like the Sox could afford to move right along with their own plan B, without compromising their ability to still impliment plan A if the opportunity arises. They could still land Bay or MH, then if they want, just eat a little salary to dump Cameron and whoever else they don’t need. I wouldn’t put it past them, not one bit. And a clever deception, like hiding in plain sight. An 800 pound gorilla with a lamp shade on its head trying to be inconspicuous. They are up to something more than meets the eye.
Common thinking is that the Red Sox are trying to secure Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego via trade. Depending on who they would have to give up, they could re-enter the free agent market. On the other hand, they have already signed Scutaro, Lackey and Cameron, traded for Hermida and are trying to dump Lowell. So it is not as if they have been dormant.
The market has broken with the Halladay/Lee trade. The good stuff is going fast and getting pretty good money. DeRosa is down to 3/18………….. Hate to say it. Cardinals are spectators. The Orioles are back scratching Boras on a Holiday interest. Life goes on.
I would say the Red Sox are being very aggressive.