In a surprisingly bold move by the St. Louis Cardinals, they offered arbitration to their top three free agents, Matt Holliday, Joel Pineiro and Mark DeRosa before Tuesday’s deadline.
Despite the risk of the latter two players accepting and returning to St. Louis on a one-year, arbitration-driven contract, the club rolled the dice. The potential gain is considerable – a total of four extra draft picks. Three will be between the first and second rounds of the 2010 draft and the other will be in either the first or second round.
The Cardinals can either take all four and help rebuild their farm system, decimated by trading five top picks for Holliday and DeRosa or perhaps use them to offset the loss of one or two of their own top picks if they decide to sign any Type A free agents themselves.
Because Holliday is the top-scored free agent available in the Elias Rankings, he is guaranteed to fetch either the first- or second-round pick from the club that signs him. (Assuming he does not return to St. Louis.) The exact pick depends on the 2009 finish of the signing team. The worst 15 teams last season would only forfeit their second-round selection, while the best 15 teams would lose their first-rounder.
The Cardinals will also receive three “sandwich” picks between the first and second rounds of the 2010 draft, one each for Holliday, DeRosa and Pineiro, if the players do not accept the Cards’ arbitration offer.
But exactly where in the 2010 draft would these compensatory picks be?
We currently have no way of telling.
All we know is that 23 of 70 eligible players were offered arbitration, 10 Type A and 13 Type B. That means as many as ten first or second-round picks could be changing hands and up to 23 extra picks will be added between rounds one and two of the 2010 draft.
To determine the precise order of the compensation-round picks, we need to know the comparative detailed Elias score of each free agent. This information has not yet been released by the MLB Players Association (MLBPA), though the Type A free agent scores only have apparently been leaked.
In past years, not only have the Type designations of each free agent been released, they were made available for all players, free agent or not. Here is the full list from one year ago: link
This year, all that has been formally published is the simple A/B designation of the free agents only with no 1) relative scores, 2) position detail, or 3) information on the non-free agents. The first is most important to answer the questions posed above.
I wonder if the MLBPA is being more tight-lipped since the Elias Ranking system has been under increasing fire due to several factors, including an overly-high value placed on relievers and some very odd placements of players.
Some have tried to crack the Elias scoring algorithms, which include stats such as batting average, home runs and RBI for hitters, and innings, ERA, saves and strikeouts for pitchers, but have been only partially successful.
I have some inquiries out and hope to be able to shed more light soon on where in the comp round the Cardinals three picks will be. Certainly Holliday’s will be up front. That much we know.
Note: In related recent posts, I highlighted both the Cardinals recent compensatory picks and those they may have passed up.
Major update: I did some additional research today and have learned my assumption above is incorrect. Here is how the supplemental round is actually ordered:
(All picks are in reverse order of 2009 standings just like the regular rounds)
- All teams losing Type A’s get one pick
- All teams losing a second Type A get their second pick, etc.
- All teams losing Type Bs get one pick
- All teams losing a second Type B get their second pick, etc.
So what this means for the Cardinals is that the comp pick for Holliday will not be first. His top Elias Ranking is immaterial. My application of the process above would put the Cardinals’ supplemental picks like the following. This assumes all players decline arbitration and do not re-sign with their current team, so this order may not be final.
- Holliday pick: #4 in the comp round, 36th overall
- DeRosa/Pineiro pick: #19 (first Type B pass), 51st overall
- Pineiro/DeRosa pick: #24 (last comp player – second Type B pass), 56th overall
Between DeRosa and Pineiro, I am still not sure which pick is labeled for which player and how the “tie” is broken, as both are Type B. For this exercise, it doesn’t matter. (Update: If I understand the system correctly, the first B comp pick will be for DeRosa (70.33) and the second for Pineiro (67.302) due to their relative Elias scores.)
The above spots had to be adjusted for three unsigned players from the 2009 draft, two in the first round and one in the comp round. The latter falls after Holliday’s comp pick and prior to the first DeRosa/Pineiro selection.
Bottom line, the Cardinals currently have (subject to change due to caveats noted above) at least four picks in the first 56 selections in the 2010 draft and potentially five, if another top 15 club (based on 2009 wins) signs Holliday. Current course and speed, they will have six in the first 83, including their own second-rounder. (Note there are two other clubs with second-round comp picks ahead of the Cardinals.)
The location of the other Holliday pick remains the major open question. Because Holliday is a Type A free agent, the signing team actually forfeits their first -or second-round pick and St. Louis receives it. This is in addition to the comp selection discussed above. It can be anywhere from the last half of the first round to the end of the first half of the second round.
For the 2010 draft, it should be between #17 and #31 overall or between #57 and #71 overall. The former is more likely since that is tied to a winning 2009 team signing Holliday such as the Red Sox (pick #29) or the Yankees (pick #31). Obviously, if Holliday instead re-signs with the Cardinals, they would not receive any compensatory selections since in that case, they would not have lost him.
December 7 update: Because three MLB players accepted arbitration, the DeRosa and Pineiro comp picks each move up three places from the places listed above.
Please note the update above as it is a major change from my initial post.
Matt Holliday himself was a 7th round pick, coming out of high school.
However, he got bonused by the Rockies in keeping with supplemental first round talent, $790,000, IIRC. Bonus money is a useful indicator of how a guy is valued by scouts.
Some high upside guys fall in the draft owing to having higher bonus expectations in relation to where teams would draft them, simply on potential, setting aside money. Holliday would have been an illustration of this. He may have been a supplemental first or second round talent who fell to the 7th round, because his bonus hopes may have been aggressive. He was also a football star and this may have helped raise his bonus price.
Yes, Holliday was a high school football and baseball star who had a scholarship offer to play both at the local U, Oklahoma State, where his Dad was head baseball coach at the time. He fell so low in the 1998 draft as it was assumed he would attend college.
http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091201&content_id=7735632&vkey=news_stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl
This type of article is very misleading in my opinion. The energy that Mo is putting into this charade is equivalent to how much they are conning the public…………………. Scott Boras has the trump card. He will not play it before he deals his other clients. He has a number of people to place including Rick Ankiel. Last year he held off till the Sabathia mess was well over. He didn’t have many players so he stressed the market in a show of power. He made no friends. Holiday will not sign before mid January is my guess. That means we here the sob story and the ” I guess we just have to move on” lines. This is just a show for the public, and the fact they are hyping it so hard, validates my view of there overall purpose………..Before all is said and done, you will here Mo say, “we were so focused on MH that we missed some good opportunities. Lets hope someone takes the Arbitration offers.
The article analysis also assumes no classified FA’s re-sign with their current teams.
Comp picks for unsigned draftees happen as part of the regular round so won’t effect this *unless the comp pick is for an unsigned comp pick of which i don’t believe there were any).
Holliday’s minor league hitting stats are interesting. He spent two seasons at the high A rung and two seasons at AA. His hitting at AA was unexciting. How many would have anticipated future greatness after two ho-hum years at AA?
However, then he rose to play everyday in the majors, skipping AAA. And his OPS improved in the majors versus AA.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Matt-Holliday.shtml
With this unconventional minor league heritage, its not surprising he got doubted by some as a Coors Field made hitter.
The underlying reality may be Holliday continued to improve his game, so able to perform much better in the majors than back at the easier level of AA.
CC, as seems to often be the case, you question something and I have to do research as a result.
I probably should have done it initially, but I was in a hurry to get the initial corrections entered. I have updated the above to reflect what follows.
As noted, any unsigned picks from last year (through three rounds) reappear in their same round this year. That has two potential impacts to this discussion:
1) Any unsigned picks in the first round make the comp round begin later. That changes the overall starting number of the comp round picks. I looked it up and there are two unsigned first rounders from the 2009 draft. Therefore, the comp round starts at #33 overall.
2) Any unsigned comp round picks from last year are inserted into this year’s comp round. I have now looked it up and there is actually one unsigned comp pick from the 2009 draft. It was Toronto’s sandwich pick, fifth in that round.
What this means to the sandwich round of the 2010 draft:
Jumbo said, “However, then he rose to play everyday in the majors, skipping AAA. And his OPS improved in the majors versus AA.”
This must have been hard for you to even type out since I have read your diatribes about the need for development at the AAA level
It shocks me to hear of even one success story at the ML level that didn’t toil through AAA for at least one year, although there have been plenty.
Matt and Albert have something in common then. Should make for a warm and cozy relationship.
BB said, “Matt and Albert have something in common then. Should make for a warm and cozy relationship.”
One never knows, maybe Matt has some latino blood in him somewhere down the line and if so, Matt and Albert could very well become pals
Hey maybe Albert will call up Matt and tell him this:
Feliz Navidad y un próspero Año Nuevo
just as an act of good will in hopes that Matt will choose the cardinals…………………………..but he will most likely tell him this:
No estoy preocupado acerca de su negocio sólo estoy preocupado por mí.
Nunca se sabe. Tal vez, “mi vida no tiene sentido sin ti”.
“Badge”……..what badge……….we don’t need no stinking badges”!
“Brakes??? ……brakes are for sissies!”
Bling, We can only hope Albert feels that way. If he does that attitude would elevate the play of everyone around him and the team would be better. Having your best player, a superstar, act like the other guys are actually important makes them fight hard to impress him and not let him down.
Right now, I’m pretty sure most could care less what Albert thinks of them. Which makes for a bunch of individuals doing their own thing with no enthusiasm for their craft. Doesn’t that sound like what you see when you watch the cards play?
Well RC, I can’t really say that. Game 3 with LA excepted. “no enthusiasm for their craft” is kind of a strong and sweeping statement. Something went wrong at the end of the season though, I’ll admit. I found myself holding the glasses on Brendan more so than anyone else the last couple weeks, that’s where the energy was. I guess that’s a pretty sad commentary. Some guys will have to man up, that’s for sure. Like I said before, we need a guy or two to step out of a phone booth with a cape on. Maybe you could use your inside contacts to supply the Roger Dean locker room with some shaving cream pies. That would go over well wouldn’t you say.:)
I believe Brendan plays with a passion every time he steps on the field. I love it.
Albert will hop out of that phone booth with his cape on, that you can be sure of.
A work hard, play hard while injecting a little fun into the daily grind that is a major league baseball season would improve the cardinals yearly September swoon me thinks.
That serious, businesslike, approach wears a player down over the course of a season and makes for a mentally drained player come October. the 2006 team had all of the injury returns who brought a little life back to the team which, IMO, helped them play strong in the playoffs. Every year it seems the cards just run out of gas at the end and this is a direct result of the(businesslike) routine that they all must endure throughout the year. The game is tough enough when you are having fun but when it is like digging ditches every day it becomes tougher IMO.
I’m reminded of Jesse Owens (I think) saying “A lifetime of training for ten seconds of glory”. Each in their own way, guys like Albert and Brendan re-live that ten seconds over and over endlessly. Every at bat or play is that ten seconds all over again. That’s what a winner is, regardless of skill level.
Lohse doesn’t get talked about much. I expect him to get traded during the season to a team looking to contend but finding themselves needing a solid middle rotation guy. The Cards like to find a way to unload a player who becomes overpriced for any reason. As was discussed on Brian’s radio thing the other day, a Lohse type is worth about 6-7 or so right now, not 10-11. So Mo will be looking for just such a guy now while the looking is good. Use Lohse and 6/7 guy, as your 3-4, Smoltz or rookie as 5. When the buyer comes looking later on, offload Lohse for a good reliever or something and cut payroll 3-5 per. Then Smoltz and rookie become 4-5. Sort of like swapping Rolen for Glaus, except find the guy now when we can pick and choose, and do the other half later when Lohse’s contract will be a secondary consideration for a buyer.
Westy, you devil. Right as rain.
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/4864E8EE5F8A1443862576810066AD41?OpenDocument
I think that a the site, out beyond left field, would be perfect for a 30 foot statue of Albert, up on a pedestal, so it could be seen from the field (and owners box), illuminated of course.
I’m reminded of Shaq: “I’m tired of people talking about money, money, money…..All I want to do is play ball……and drink Pepsi……..and wear Reebock…..”
I don’t fault DeWitt for his ambition BB. I admire him for that. He knows well the source and methods used to accumulate wealth. He is playing a system. The Cardinal brand name as it is perceived by the locals is a wellspring of bountiful opportunity. If you knew this guy through my eyes, you would need a wealth of compassion to say as little as I do. He may find his way. I know his business plan and objectives. The sleuthing concerning his activities are as interesting as the games to me. Yes, the Cardinals business is a serious exposure of his activities in a very guarded world.
In the article about BDW speech at Webster, he talks about numbers that don’t really add up to good news, then dumps it in Albert’s lap:
“He knows the iconic players of any generation typically stay with one team if you look at the history of baseball.”
I could hear the violins.
While there are always buyouts, Lohse has a no trade clause. I (unfortunately) don’t see him going anywhere.
I agree, CC. Buy low and sell high, not the opposite. Would have to pay to unload the contract and why do that? Better to hold and look for a rebound in 2010.
RCW, regarding your post 8 from the top, Matt Holliday spent 3 years in A ball and 2 years at AA.
In contrast, Mr. Colby spent 1 year at A level, 1 year at AA, and 1 season at AAA, 3 all told, 2 years less than Mr. Matt.
Matt’s 5 years at A/AA did not show results highly suggestive of a budding star. He has a somewhat atypical minor league heritage, given how good he has become.
But thats life. While there can be general trends, individuals can differ.
Colby has been blessed to enjoy 2 fewer years of minor league preparation than Matt did. The Cards sped him into the ML fray.
JumBeau
I’m just picking at you.
Your comment #8 was witty.
And Holliday has had a slightly unconventional career path.
Because three MLB players accepted arbitration, the DeRosa and Pineiro comp picks each move up three places.