I was thinking about some of the dynamics this winter relating to the St. Louis Cardinals 40-man roster, prospects and the market for free agents and how that may represent a cross-section of changes across the game.
Though it is still early in the off-season in terms of player movement, there have been a number of verbal jousts reported in the media between management and agents over the current economic state of the game and its potential impact on signings.
The Cardinals are among those clubs that may experience the most change as they have nine free agents: pitchers Joel Pineiro, Todd Wellemeyer, John Smoltz, infielders Mark DeRosa, Khalil Greene and Troy Glaus, catcher Jason LaRue and outfielders Matt Holliday and Rick Ankiel.
Most of these veterans are not expected back for 2010. That is probably good, since there is no longer enough roster room for them all.
The youngsters from the farm system continue to push their way up, to the extent that the organization was forced to add eight of them to the 40-man roster or risk losing them in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.
Here is where the roster stands today. Short of dropping other players off the 40-man, the Cardinals could at most add six more players before reaching their limit. They could be any combination of players taken from other organizations via Rule 5 and veteran free agents, whether their own or from other clubs. (Note: I am still keeping the Cardinals system roster matrix up to date.)
Let’s make a reasonable, yet high-side assumption that the Cards make no Rule 5 additions and fill five of their open roster spots with vets. That would put the Cardinals’ 40-man at 39 players, same as when the 2009 season ended.
What that would mean at a macro level is that nine veteran free agents from 2009 would be replaced by just five veterans in 2010. The net is four veteran jobs lost. If you believe five signings is too aggressive, then the number of vets displaced may even be greater.
If one takes the leap of applying this across MLB, one might only assume a couple of jobs per team would be lost since the 30 MLB clubs currently average about seven free agents each. Ignoring some of the players’ chances of regaining a roster spot via coming into camp as a non-roster invitee, an average of two jobs lost times 30 teams mean up to 60 major leaguers could find themselves out of work come spring.
I don’t know the typical number to which to compare from past off-seasons, but there are always some vets who find they have nowhere to sit when the music stops. 60 feels high but the 2010 count may surely be non-trivial.
Of course it may be inappropriate to apply the Cardinals’ situation to the rest of MLB as it may not be representative, but it still makes me wonder about what might be the cause.
Are the younger players better than the vets they replace or do they just represent the combination of future promise and a lower paycheck today?
Does this indicate a change in the wind or is it just baseball business-as-usual?
I have been trying to think of a realistic list of players that could be added to the roster for 2010 and have come up with a few pieces that may make some sense.
Garret Anderson could slide into the 2 hole. Jermaine Dye is another option. Austin Kearns, X Nady, Lance Nix, and G Sheffield seem to be the type of players that may fit best into this system if we are going after free agents.
I still say Adam Dunn is the very best fit for the 4 slot on this team with its current makeup. That is if that snowball doesn’t fly right through hell and we sign Matt Holliday. I say a 3-4-5 of Albert, Dunn, and Ludwick would be pretty formidable. Albert and Adam’s high OBP would put Luddy in a spot where he could knock in a ton of runs.
Other than Dye and Nady perhaps, these free agents are at the opposite end of the spectrum from Holliday. Sheffield and Anderson are on their last legs. Nix is not starting material for a contender. Kearns might have been once for a brief period but is not any more.
Dunn would have to be acquired via trade. Colby had better get his track shoes on if Dunn is stationed in left next year. He can hit and take a walk though. With his high OBP, wouldn’t he be better in front of Albert in the three hole and with Pujols at four?
I just have a hard time believing that Mo could get anybody other than those listed above. Nady seems like the most probable addition for next year.
Yea, I know Dunn would have to be traded for but I don’t think it would take much if the cards agreed to take on his entire salary.
I think Colby could handle the defensive aspect of the Dunn addition.
I know you don’t believe for a minute that Albert will bat anywhere but 3rd for a TLR managed team. I have believed for a while that the team would be better with Albert batting 4th but the current philosophy revolves around winning on the back of Albert first. Dunn couldn’t score from first on a double from Albert so that is a negative, Dunn hits alot of 2b’s and that would open up first for everyone to walk Albert so that would be a negative. The Dunn walks would be a positive but I would think those would decrease some if he batted in front of Albert. In the end Dunn wouldn’t leave enough RBI opportunities on the sacks and I believe this would not make for a happy Albert. Dunn on first would prevent Albert from being pitched around so this would help but I just don’t believe anything will change with regards to how TLR approaches the lineup.
I think the system remains in place and Albert sets personal records in 2010 for BB’s. Why wait until the playoffs? The central foes may very well just take the Torre approach from the jump and make someone else beat them.
I think its become a natural process Brian. Some teams are doing so poorly financially, the Rich teams can hide behind the economic sympathies that would surely limit the scope of any Collusions settlements. Poor teams eat it one way or another because there will be less luxury tax money to share if wealthy teams don’t need to spend as much signing the cream. Parity will eventually be what suffers.
Brian,
Albert’s OBP is even higher than Dunn’s so I see him as a better option for the three spot in front of Dunn.
One negative argument I’ve read about Dunn’s offense is that he doesn’t expand his zone in an RBI situation by even a little bit. The OBP is great, but when the ducks are the pond ….
I strayed a bit too far astream. As RC correctly reminds us, Albert is third, period.
Oh come on, this is getting rediculous.
As everyone ponders the inevitable inflexibility of the Albert/Tony coalition. Think of the price in dollars + or – in filling out the roster. Has Albert become a Player that is totally absorbed with controlling the best position to fulfilling his marquee status and Hall of fame statistics. Or, are we playing to win. Considering 2009, they are apparently two different position.
Well, what’s the average length of an MLB career? Not preposterously long. New players come up and push older players aside. Wellemeyer, Greene, Glaus, and Ankiel are damaged goods to one extent or another. LaRue is a backup, DeRosa is kinda injured and kinda old, and Smoltz is really old to the extent that he might not be expected to last a full season. Pineiro and Holliday are probably too good not to make more money elsewhere.
The larger market teams will continue to sign veterans at the expense of younger players. It will even out somewhat.
Furthermore, a team needs younger players if it hopes to pay big stars such as Pujols, Holliday, and Carpenter and stay financially viable. Well, any team that isn’t swimming in money. There are a lot of okay players out there who won’t command the free agent dollars that some of these players might and the younger they are, the less injury prone they are and the less likely that their skills will decline.
You can’t shell out money for okay players unless you want to end up like the Orioles, the Royals, or the Nationals. It doesn’t work. This is nothing new.
Nut, I think we are playing draw poker and we are drawing to three ace. We deperatly need a few players from outside “The Cardinal Way”. If we got one stick, and a pitcher that could close, as we will need one. And a credible starter capable of going 10/10. Your going to be unproven at 3rd, someone that looked pretty good with a 10 game division lead as SS. A second baseman that is poor against lefties, and doesn’t even hit against the good ones. No one really knows what player will show up in Lugo’s body. We have a time bomb at 1st. Lets hope for him, and that his difficulty’s resolve. Molina is evolving, becoming better as a defensive catcher. With no World tourney to play off of, an unknown at the plate. When teams finally realized he was only going off field almost exclusively, they made it tougher in September. Colby can only get better…….I hope he learns to adjust and finds the value in bat control………. Luddy showed no ability to understand his own adjustments. He is not a Forrest Gump, but his game concept is truly mysterious. He is dominated by almost a boyscout brand of optimism that leaves me in a state of constant wonderment. He loves to play MLB……….he just hasn’t figured out where he fits in it seems. He is defiantly on the – side of the tactical game………..whether Craig and company survive the Albert maelstrom is unknown. If Albert is stroking, they won’t have many chances. If he is not, it will be tough for all of us.