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Brian Walton's news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals (TM) and their minor league system

Changing Cy Young scoring doesn’t change winner


In my earlier post looking at a five-player ballot instead of the three-player ballot that exists today for the Cy Young Award vote, my intent was to adapt the pitching process to mimic the ten-player Most Valuable Player Award scoring.

In doing so, I erred in assigning five points to first place. To most accurately apply the MVP scoring system of 14-9-8-7-etc., which provides a greater differentiation to first place, to the Cy Young process, the proper corresponding scoring breakdown should have been 7-4-3-2-1.

I re-ran the numbers that way. Again the base assumption is that Carpenter would have received two fourth-place votes, the most optimistic case for him short of actual vote changes. The first three columns are the actual votes with the fourth- and fifth-place votes made up by me.

Hypothetical 7-4-3-2-1 vote 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Points
Lincecum 11 12 9 0 0 152
Wainwright 12 5 15 0 0 149
Carpenter 9 14 7 2 0 144
Vazquez 0 1 0 30 1 65
Haren 0 0 1 0 31 34

Because Adam Wainwright received the most first-place votes, he leapt over Chris Carpenter into second place. However, because he had only one more first-place vote and many fewer second-place mentions than Tim Lincecum, the latter would remain the winner.

In this scoring system, even if Carpenter had magically picked up the controversial second and third-place votes from Keith Law and Will Carroll, the additional net of three points (plus seven points minus four) would have still left him in third place, five points behind Lincecum, 152-147.

Hypothetical 7-4-3-2-1 vote 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Points
Lincecum 11 12 9 0 0 152
Wainwright 12 5 15 0 0 149
Carpenter 9 15 8 0 0 147
Vazquez 0 0 0 32 0 64
Haren 0 0 0 0 32 32

In other words, short of other voters changing their actual votes, there doesn’t seem to be a fair system that would have altered the winner.

I am more than ready to move on and I hope Cardinals fans are, too.

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