I was catching up on some reading and read a depressing piece from SI’s Jon Heyman. It was discouraging both because of its message and that it seemed to ring true.
It was one thing to quote a friend of Matt Holliday’s saying the Cardinals soon-to-be free agent outfielder “loves the idea of going to the Yankees”. That is bad enough on its own, but it hurts even more to read where St. Louis supposedly ranks in his priority queue – somewhere south of both New York teams, the Angels and the Dodgers.
The second-hand comment about his current club is that Holliday supposedly “very much enjoyed playing in St. Louis, though, and appreciates the Cardinals’ keen interest”.
Doesn’t that sound like the prelude of the big break-up or what?
Heyman went on to rank nine contenders for Holliday’s services. The best the Cardinals could place is a weak sixth. The truth hurts.
With Scott Boras’ recent rhetoric placing Holliday in Mark Teixeira’s $180-million neighborhood as one of a pair of “blue-collar superstars”, even finishing sixth may be optimistic.
It was a nice try in 2009 for the Cardinals, but once their exclusive negotiating period ends 15 days after the World Series concludes, the sooner the Holliday charade ends, the sooner the club can move on to realistically address their 2010 holes.
Keeping Holliday no longer seems realistic.
For the Cards, there are only two places in the race for Holliday. Either they land him or they do not. In this perspective, 6th place is no worse than 2nd but neither is something to celebrate.
Holliday is in charge. He either elects to take a sub-top dollar deal from the Cards before free agency begins or he goes into open bidding the Cards are sure not to win, as a mid-market team.
Most teams think they can market a player like Matt. NY…….I don’t know. Boris will have a target team, and he will play some chumps to bid him upward. You would be wrong if you didn’t think there was some reservations involving AL teams. The only real question here is do the Cards actually get an offer on paper, or will it be just BS. I loved the way he came in here. He even got Ankiel in a good mind set. The 6/100,000,000 would have got him. He will get 6 or 7yrs around 140.
Indians GM Mark Shapiro was quoted (via MLBTradeRumors) as saying “the realities of the business” prevented the Tribe from retaining the wonderful southpaws Sabathia or Lee. The Indians offered CC $72MM over four years or $18MM per season. Shapiro said this offer was “unrealistic.”
Sabathia got a 7 year deal with the Yankees for $161MM. This gives him an opt out clause after year 3. $23MM/yr for 3 or 7 years. $5MM/yr more than the Indians and for three more years.
That is probably the sort of difference Holliday would get from Boston or another top bidder. If the Cards offer $18MM a year for 6 seasons, $108MM, then Boston could offer $23MM/yr for 6 years.
Now the Cards know this very well. This is no huge surprise to them. Its just everyday economic reality for whoever owns a mid-market franchise.
The Cards made a decision to obtain Holliday in hopes of persuading him to take a sub-market extension, maybe at $18MM/yr. Holliday is friends with Mark McGwire, who knowingly took a below market deal to stay with TLR his long-time manager. He had a good time in St Louis. And Mark felt well enough paid. People are different and Mark deliberately made this choice. As did Matt Morris and Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen.
Right now, we do not know what kind of final choice Holliday will make. He turned down an offer in early September. Does he want a larger one from the Cards or an even larger one from another team? For every elite free agent, every single one of them, he can get more money on the open market.
Yep, as I and others have said before, second place is first loser. But the point of highlighting #6 is that even if #1 does not come through, there are four other teams that at least one knowledgeable baseball insider thinks are ahead of the Cardinals. The odds of anyone in sixth place vaulting to the top seem lower than if they were in second. Guess I should have spelled that out instead of assuming it would be obvious to the reader….
There are related stories. The Cards traded at least one Faberge egg in Brett Wallace for what could turn out to be two months of Holliday. Was this a one-time decision or will they do this sort of manuever again? Or was this a one time decision aiming to retain Holliday in hopes of retaining Pujols after 2011? If it falls through, what’s next?
And where does TLR fit with the team’s business plan? If TLR has a win now at any cost in surrendering prospects philosophy, how is this compatible with a business philosophy of home-growing talent?
Here is why being 6th place in the bidding does not matter. The other 5 teams can each outbid the Cards by $5MM/yr, if interested in doing so. Whether there is one team or five or eight teams willing to bid at this higher pay bracket does not matter, from the point of view of the Cardinals (DeWitt, Mo, and Jumbo).
For the Cards, it all boils down to what does Matt Holliday wish to do? Would he like $18MM to play in a mid-market town or does he feel a duty to support the player’s union’s pay-scale by moving elsewhere? Its his call. If Matt decides to move on, Boras will take the blame.
The above post seems to suggest that that Holliday would take the highest offer due to union pressure rather than his own desire and/or push from his agent. There are likely many factors, but I would stop short of attributing it to just one, especially that one.
Its fine to hold Holliday responsible, alone, for his final decision, whatever this turns out to be.
I suspect and am suggesting there is probably an ideology within the player’s union and among players who are pending free agents. They may want to shift the issue away from money for themselves.
Albert believes — and I respect his faith — that his future is in the hands of God. Its not up to him. It will not be his personal choice. He will not be responsible for a decision. The way forward will be shown to him and revealed, in due course.
I suspect the Union and agents will counsel free agents that they have a duty to their colleagues, inside the game, to select the highest monetary bid. This is not merely for them. Its not just about self, since that could seem greedy. Rather selecting the highest bid is virtuous and helps others, because it helps all players by stretching the wage scale. So again the individual is absolved of guilt, but is serving all others in his profession.
Sounds like a Boras plant story to me!
I’ve got the Cards, Angels, Red Sox and the Nationals in a dead heat right now. Yes, I said the Nationals!
Wow, the Nationals? That would hurt more than any of the others. What makes you think that, CC?
Who has most to lose by not winning the Holliday chase? I say its the Cards. It has been established that a key to retaining Albert is lining up a cleanup hitter to protect him. That hasn’t changed. It’s also been assumed that the Albert protecting cleanup hitter is a need that cannot be met in house. That hasn’t changed either. So who is out there that can do the job to Albert’s satisfaction, and be signed for several years? And how much will that cost? Less than Holliday? Since the Cards have so much more to lose, a jaw dropping offer during the exclusive period is likely.
Nationals – a big market and an empty stadium. They were in on Texeira until the end.
Teixeira had special appeal as a local guy who could have been a gate attraction. They spent some of his money on Adam Dunn instead. Don’t think either Dunn or Holliday are/will fill many of those empty seats. Not saying the Nats couldn’t go after Holliday, too, though. An idea I hadn’t considered.
bb, it would be interesting to see that jaw-dropping offer. WC thinks the Cards could have locked up Holliday early had they been more aggressive. That did the trick with Lohse, but I question whether it would have worked here. I suspect Boras would have just made that the opening bid for other clubs to beat in free agency. I can understand a strategy by the Cardinals to wait and make their best offer just before Holliday hits the street. Even if so, I remain skeptical it will be enough.
Lohse decided for Lohse. He must have liked working with Dave Duncan and wanted to stay put. It has to be a personal decision, to take yourself out of a bidding process.
The Cards will have made a strong offer in early September. They can lift it a little on the verge of free agency, but they will not lift it very much, just a smidge. Then its up to Holliday to decide which way to go. If he chooses free agency, the Cards drop out of the process, just like they did not keep bidding on Brian Fuentes once he announced he wanted to play in his home State.
DeWitt has already stated publicly the Cards are not going to be the high bidder. Once it is open bidding, we are out of it, because then it is only about money, not about relationships.
I’d say the Nationals’s desperation level is greater than last year. A pitcher (Strasburg) that only pitches every 5th day (when he makes it to the majors) isn’t going to be enough to keep what few fans they have.
I think Boras decided for Lohse because he realized the Cardinal’s offer was more than he would get anywhere else.
CC, in fantasy baseball, that strategy by the Nationals is called “stars and scrubs”.
I am not so sure about Lohse, CC. In his comments at the press conference when Lohse’s deal was announced, Boras even said he was against Lohse accepting the Cardinals offer. Lohse had a stronger backbone after getting shafted the previous winter.
Jumbo, I didn’t read the DeWitt quote in context, but at face value it makes sense. After thinking a bit more, the comment seems to accept that Holliday will reach the market. Prior to that, the Cards are the only ones allowed to offer. Many, myself included, think that if Holliday reaches the market, he is gone.
how many paying fans did you draw at your last fantasy game and what were the TV and radio ratings?
The same amount as I make here, zero, zero and zero…
I dont think the Cards enter a bidding war on Holliday. Their bid stops at the end of their period of exclusive negotiating rights. They have already stated publicly that they will not provide the highest bid. So this leaves it up to Holliday to decide what he wants to do. The money is sure to be higher from other teams. As a matter of professional duty, his agent cannot go against that. Only Holliday can decide whether to stay. And as Mark McGwire would say, the player is in charge of this choice.
The Cards want players who want to play here. If Mr. Holliday departs, the Cards will say we would have liked you to stay, but thanks for your service, and move on to Plan B.
Holiday is gone. Deal with it. Its history.
What is current is the meaningless exclamations by Mo that our pen is fine. What is the purpose of that? It would always seem prudent to examine the market till it dries up. He appears to be setting a precedent for fan expectations. The Cardinals are on course. Heads up.
It is a huge ego trip to have the market evaluate you. Holiday wanted some of that. Like it or not, Albert wants some of that and in the end and I believe you will witness that event. Thats not to say that Albert won’t sign with the Cardinals, turning down other offers. But he will extend they’re offer that way. There has been a change in the Cardinal front office. There are now heavy philosophic and political principles in play there. They are not free market wonderful. The entire Cardinal financial apparatus is now build around cash flow and accountability to the partners. But lets be honest. There is a major share holder here. The story about using the Lugo salary check to bring Holiday in was no story. That was a brilliant business play by DeWitt. He took that money and made a bunch with it. And whats truly special is that he landed exactly where he was heading beforehand. That debt liability will disappear in a barrel of dry powder, all profits shared by the privileged. The offer to Holiday was in the 5/78 range, and it was never put on paper. Cardinal offers that reaches the press in three weeks will be 5/80 or 6/93 is my guess. Perfectly positioned to fail. It will be with drawn before the winter meetings. They will make an offer to DeRosa that also will have a time limit. He may loose his nerve and take it.
…..And Brian Barden, 29 year old AAAA SS, was a great player undermined by TLR. And DeWitt made a huge amount of money off accepting the need to pay Lugo next season. Etc., etc.
There is never a reason to put an offer on paper until someone is ready to sign. So its fine to negotiate without written offers. Why waste paper on offers? Save a tree.
The Cards are not going to try to outbid richer teams. They have not in the past, will not now, nor will in future. Some players find this fine, while some others choose to leave. When they reach free agency, each is empowered to decide for himself. Its the way of the world.
Really Jumbo!!!!!!!!! Barden is a guy, a little like yourself probably. He had his day. You say it was the wrong year. Tony sat him when he was hot………like he did Ludwick in 08……. Luddy finally steps up ,is the hottest player in the league, Shreds SD, and Tony benches him in LA for Chris against right handers, two games in a row. Duncan did sh-t. Luddy took another month before he got his rhythm back. We know what that was about now, right?
I know what happened in 09. Its was in May/June before the deadline and Tony was trying to force BD/Mo into getting him a player. He could care less about Barden. No one said he was a great PLAYER…………Tony got DeRosa…….it worked. Barden got disappointment. It happens.
You know nothing about contract protocol. Sorry!
The offer to be made before Holliday hits the street will be jow dropping in the context of what one would expect from the Cards, simply because the Cards have heavy costs associated with not signing him which other teams don’t have. We have to sign him, or someone like him, if we want Albert to be happy. Sadly, I too am skeptical it will be enough. I wonder how much ‘Plan B’ will cost.
I don’t see any sign that Pujols wants Holiday to be his protection. Oil and water there.
Maybe so Westy. That was the main reason for getting him though. Kind of an expensive mistake. The need for Mr. Plan B remains. Somebody a little less alpha maybe.
It was interesting in late September when DeWitt went public and celebrated our successful 2009 regular season and the Holliday deal. There was a breathless article about how Mo landed Holliday. Lots of positive spin. Good timing for it too.
By then the Cards had re-upped Franklin and Miller. Mo likes to do those late season deals, what he calls low hanging fruit. Take care of some business, so you have fewer holes to fill later. Yet Holliday was still unsigned. Not an auspicious indicator, no matter how much happy talk.
It would have been nice if Holliday had hit his Game 2 homer with his first at bat in Game 1 bases loaded off Wolf. And not had the freak fielding mishap of Game 2. We could have swept in LA, dropped game 3 to Padilla, and still had two more chances. If we had won the Dodgers series and if Holliday had starred, maybe, maybe, maybe…..
Your sense is correct, Jumbo. The club seems to be in the midst of a PR push, which may also serve the purpose of putting DeWitt III more in the forefront. Accompanying the release of the letter, an unusual offer was made, an open invitation that III is available to do press interviews as requested. He already did one session with MLB.com and is having more with others.
I hope III is better at interviews than Caroline Kennedy turned out to be. (smiley face).
Its reasonable for the team to get out there with its messages. Either the team establishes its narrative (gosh I hate writing that) or journalists like Brian Walton or Bernie will fill the void.
The Birds have been competing with the chips that they have, but have been in a difficult situation. Its not easy and all the endings are not assured to be happy.
Here’s a story idea for today’s younger fans: a little historical piece on the departures of Terry Pendleton, Willie McGeee, Vince Coleman, Bernard Gilkey, Todd Worrell as free agents in the early 1990s.
Regarding Jumbo’s last point, it is one example why I am not enthused about Gussie Busch’s “retired number”. A reluctance to spend to compete is a prime reason the team went through such a long dry spell following the 1987 World Series, an event I am remembering in my newest post. I suspect many who complain about current ownership lack perspective.
McGee and Gilkey were traded away, but I get your message. In a bit of trivia, one of the players received from the Mets for Gilkey was Eric Ludwick, later more famous as part of the McGwire acquisition and proud older brother of the current right fielder.
The Cards have been blessed by a period of pretty good luck financially, in a game in which money is big factor. The luck has included Chris Carpenter, Mark McGwire, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Matt Morris, and Albert Pujols. The first four from other systems, willing to play here for less than top dollar, good people satisfied to be rich and not insatiably needing a few dollars more.
Veteran free agency is not a game the Cards win consistently. They lost Renteria after 04, Suppan after 06, and lost out on AJ Burnett when he left Florida, Brian Flores last winter. Who are some of the best landed via free agency? Suppan, aging Reggie Sanders, Ryan Franklin. Useful players, not stars.
Morris, Pujols, plus Ankiel and Haren were the most impactful amateurs signed over a decade (95-04). Morris was 1st rd, Ankiel a big bonus in the 2nd, Haren 2nd, and Pujols we got lucky in the 13th. Holliday was just a 7th rounder out of high school, but still a bonus baby who got 2nd rd money from the Rockies.
It was amazing the Cards won the battle for Wagner Mateo. Yet, then they had terrible luck regarding Mateo’s eyesight, kind of like Holliday’s visual misfortune in the twilight at Chavez Ravine.
Another difficulty is rich teams can hire top scouts. Boston has been very good at amateur scouting. Just because a rich team spends a lot of veterans does not mean it cannot beat you at amatuers too. Boston dropped $8MM on a Cuban SS, way more than Mateo’s bonus.
Mo is off to meet the Cuban southpaw Chapman. For us to land Chapman, he will have to be toolsy, but still such a long projection as to disinterest rich teams. Will Mo be phoning Boras about Holliday while on his trip to say howdy to Chapman?
That will be as social call for the Cuban, Jumbo, Nothing more. This gap, up until the official Holiday evasion, is very crucial for a stealthy Mo. Plenty of seen and not heard. Lefty throwing 98……… low hanging fruit? We will have 1 signing before Feb. Maybe DeRosa. It will be frustration and plenty of dry powder for another big move at the half way point. They may try to replace Thurston if a suitable replacement can be found. Doubt it.
Won the battle for Mateo? Same scouts that worked K Greene?
Westie, the Cards outbid the Giants and 28 other teams to sign Mateo. The Giants have dropped big bucks on Dominican lads in the past and have a nice cable TV contract to fund their purchases. So it was remarkable for the Cards to outbid them, just like it was impressive for another Moneyball franchise, the As to splurge $4.25 on Inoa last summer. The As could not hang onto Matt Holliday, so they have to pick and choose where to invest limited money.
In answer to your question about Khalil, no, the scouts who cover 16 year old kids in the Dominican are ususally not the same who scout ML players. In any event, your question is irrelevant. Khalil’s issue was morale. Perhaps a discerning mind reader like yourself could have helped to evaluate him, but again it does not matter, Khalil’s difficulty gave an opportunity to Ryan and we move on. With Mateo, our scouts did not know of a vision problem with his right eye, hidden by contacts. This is why medical evaluations are done. We shall see what the Giant’s doctors think and how much Mateo gets as a bonus from them.
Chapman is not low hanging fruit. He only happens to be a free agent amateur in play right now. The Cards have interest. Its not surprising Mo would meet with him, because we like to show respect to stud amateurs, from any nation.
I see no predictive elements in your evaluation Jumbo. Or is that just a taken.
Some dope on one of the blogs pointed out that the Mateo signing was just another form of laundering off shore resources Oops. Since there were so many interested it looked good for a while. It started looking like a bad investment one way or another I guess. I wonder if B. OBAM’s pressure on the Swiss had anything to do with it? Na!!! Nasty little nuisance with that infernal “peaking” machine we left him.
I boldly predict we don’t sign Chapman. Also Jumbo, it was that same guy that broke the KG story. You still can’t grasp the fact that BD spent his money last winer on 1yr contracts. KG was the second choice, behind MH. They didn’t care about his health. They didn’t plan on Carp, or Albert carrying the team. Remember Palleta offered Albert the surgery, that he apparently doesn’t need. You’ll hear more about that in coming months.
Lugo was home when he got the call. They didn’t even know if he could play. Take a look around……………… Because of Albert’s posturing, they don’t have to do anything except just make these “visits” in the open market. Albert offered to talk. They didn’t” Now he won’t. Whats the next move here?
Some good news here anyway.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4593412
Westie, next season you can rave about how McGwire knows nothing about hitting. We are all looking forward to it.
Maybe hiring McGwire is a last effort at recruiting Holliday, his buddy. Hal’s probably fed up with fan ignorance, like Dave Duncan, so decided to have fun doing something else.
I am happy to confide we entirely anyone who thinks the Mateo signing was about money laundering personifies a dope.
Its correct Jumbo seldom makes predictions. What if I had predicted Holliday would lose a ball in the late afternoon lights in the 9th inning, but with only one out instead of two? Then I would have been revealed to be wrong. Life is a complicated thing and its often good not to make predictions and be revealed as fallible and silly, as all humans are.
Its quite possible we will not sign Chapman. Its not at all “bold” for you to predict this.
“Albert offered to talk. Now he won’t.” This is all normal stuff in negotiations. The negotations may turn out well, they may not turn out well. If I did have a hunch what God is someday going to reveal to Pujols, it would not feel right to predict the ending point of Albert’s spiritual journey. Its his, not mine, and I respect him and Him.
If Shu is his student……….yikes………. I don’t know Mark so I won’t comment until I see his work. It appears the Tony/Albert coalition is as influential as I suspected. The Hal dismissal makes my day. Tony won’t platoon if he doesn’t have to. Lets hope we have the players.
“Its quite possible we will not sign Chapman. Its not at all “bold” for you to predict this.”
Jumbo Bold = WC gold Your non boldness assertion is exactly equivalent to the plausibility of your speculation that we might sign him. He wants 60 million. There is some kidding going on here….possibly. But if my equation holds true…………I’m gonna need a wheelbarrow I’m so bold.
You wanna side bet on whether another BL team hires HM? Our worthy opponents? Surely someone wants those numbers.
Speaking of bold predictions Westie, why won’t you commit to what base you are you using when you say that Cards will reduce payroll $10 million next year. Or are you not as bold as you want us to think?
“Lugo was at home when he got the call.”
What is wrong with Julio Lugo going home? The Red Sox are paying Julio many millions of dollars to cease and desist from wearing their uniform.
There is nothing wrong with relaxing at home while they pay you millions. A lot of us would love to have Julio’s problem.
“They did not even know if he could play.”
Actually, back here on planet earth, Julio Lugo has played pro ball for many years. His capabilities are very well known around baseball.
Do you really imagine a guy loses his baseball skills just because he went home for a couple of days?
I think the difference between being 2nd and 6th on his list is the amount of effort which Cards manegement is required to put in. If Holliday wanted to be here, then I think we would put in an effort to get him back, but since his reported attitude is to “peace out” of the city, even though he was warmly welcomed here, then good riddance (just do not expect another chance here).
Welcome, breibird!
I’m glad to see you noticed all the nuisance there Jumbo. Stay informed.