One of the many possible explanations suggested for the downturn in fortunes across the St. Louis Cardinals minor league system in 2009 was a dearth of extra draft selections in the early rounds of the most recent drafts.
With fewer elite players, the logic goes, there is no surprise the system did not perform as well as expected.
I decided to probe this. While there is no way to directly tie results on the field to players drafted, we can compare the Cardinals recent compensation picks to their overall early-round selections.
First, a bit of background. These extra or compensatory selections are awarded to a club in return for having lost a player due to free agency. They can either be extra selections, tacked onto the end of a round, called a supplemental round, or they can be picks taken away from another organization.
Because comp picks are in the first two rounds of the draft, that will be the comparison population. I have gone back over the last six drafts, to 2005. The club received no extra picks between 2001 and 2004, anyway.
The table that follows shows the Cardinals’ 20 picks over the initial two rounds during this time period, in what turns out to have been a very symmetrical ten and ten, respectively. On the left are the regular selections and on the right are the compensatory picks.
In the “Comp” column, when the pick was an extra one, the departing player’s name is noted in parentheses. When the pick was taken from another club, that team’s name is listed.
| Year | Rd | Pick | Score | Departed | Rd | Comp | Pick | Score | Departed | |
| 2009 | 1 | Shelby Miller | flat | |||||||
| 2 | Robert Stock | flat | ||||||||
| 2008 | 1 | Brett Wallace | boom | trade | 1s | (Percival) | Lance Lynn | boom | ||
| 2 | Shane Peterson | flat | trade | |||||||
| 2007 | 1 | Pete Kozma | flat | 1s | (Suppan) | Clayton Mortensen | boom | trade | ||
| 2 | Jess Todd | boom | trade | 2 | Milwaukee | David Kopp | bust | |||
| 2006 | 1 | Adam Ottavino | flat | 1s | (Morris) | Chris Perez | boom | trade | ||
| 2 | Jon Jay | flat | 2 | Giants | Brad Furnish | bust | ||||
| 2s | (Nunez) | Mark Hamilton | flat | |||||||
| 2005 | 1 | Tyler Greene | flat | 1 | Red Sox | Colby Rasmus | boom | |||
| 2 | Nick Webber | bust | release | 1s | (Renteria) | Mark McCormick | bust | |||
| 1s | (Matheny) | Tyler Herron | bust | release | ||||||
| 2 | Giants | Josh Wilson | bust | retire |
The first thing to note is how the number of comp picks dropped each year from 2005 through 2009 in a linear manner, from four to three to two to one to none this past summer.
The number of comp picks each year is in direct result to the rate at which the Cardinals either offer or do not offer arbitration to departing free agents. This is a subject to which I will return in a future post.
Another point that stands out is that eight of the Cardinals 20 top picks from the last five years are no longer in the organization. Five are gone due to trades, two of whom were originally comp picks, while the other three departees represent picks that did not pan out.
You have noted I devised a very simple and subjective measurement system to score each pick. As such, my scores are both debatable and changeable over time. They are:
Boom – player has either reached the majors or is ahead of pace to do so
Flat – player has neither excelled nor failed – jury is still out
Bust – player has not achieved his potential
Here is a scorecard of the picks by category. Note that there have been both more “booms” and “busts” from the extra picks, while the regular selections are mostly still in limbo.
| Reg picks | Extra picks | Total | Departed | Remaining | |
| boom | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| flat | 7 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| bust | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
A quick summary by year:
2009 – The top two picks have not played enough professional ball to assess their futures.
2008 – Lance Lynn and Brett Wallace have been solid and advanced quickly, while Shane Peterson leveled off in Double-A this year. Of course, the latter two are now part of the Oakland A’s system due to the Matt Holliday trade.
2007 – Both Jess Todd and Clayton Mortensen reached the majors rapidly, though both have been since dealt away. Pete Kozma’s breakout has yet to occur while David Kopp cannot remain healthy and finished the season back in A ball. The latter two still can raise their scores, though.
2006 – Chris Perez was a boom, but is also gone. College draftees Adam Ottavino, Jon Jay and Mark Hamilton did make Triple-A in their fourth seasons, but the jury remains out on their major league futures. Brad Furnish hasn’t mastered Double-A.
2005 – Colby Rasmus is obviously the cream of the crop. Tyler Greene reached the majors briefly in his fifth season, but has been a disappointment overall. The other four picks have not delivered, with three already gone from the organization and the fourth, Mark McCormick, perpetually injured.
As I have noted in other posts, I firmly believe the 2005 draft has been the overriding difference-maker for the rise in stature of the Cardinals system. This data reaffirms that other than Rasmus, the keys from 2005 were players taken in later rounds, not the extra picks they had that draft year.
| boom | flat | bust | |
| 2009 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 2008 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2007 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2006 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 2005 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| total | 6 | 8 | 6 |
In closing, certainly the extra picks the Cardinals enjoyed in recent years gave them a larger population of top players. So far, it has equated to additional trade fodder more than anything else.
It remains to be seen if the regular picks turn out to be a better group of players overall compared to the comp picks, but there seems to be considerably more remaining potential there.
I think it’s a little early to call Kopp a bust.
Though an individual ranking does not change the big picture here, I knew that label would cause concern from someone.
Kopp has been in the system three years and finished the season back in A ball. He has missed time all three seasons, while Jess Todd, taken in the same round, is in the majors. Lance Lynn logged more innings this season than Kopp has managed in his entire pro career. Depending on who you talk to, Kopp has had two or three shoulder surgeries, far more concerning than say an elbow.
It is not like I have been down on Kopp. It is just that every year, his chances of making that big step seem to diminish. As recently as one year ago, I ranked Kopp #28 in our prospect ranking, higher than any other voter. At the time, Jeff Luhnow pronounced Kopp fixed after his 2008 procedure. An uneven 2009 season followed. This August, they announced him as part of their AFL contingent only for him to have another shoulder surgery within a few weeks. Not a good sign, IMHO.
It feels a lot like where Mark McCormick was two years earlier. College workhorse with great promise but can’t stay healthy long enough to show it. I don’t see how the organization has yet received a return on their $450,000 investment.
Like I said above, these scores could change, but after three years, that is my assessment. I do hope he puts it together in 2010, I really do.
Tyler Greene lost about 1 year to a knee injury and came back this season to swipe more than 30 bases. To label Greene “disappointing” would be akin to writing off Brendan Ryan based on his 2008 part-time role.
Ironically, it was claimed this summer in the P-D that the Cards had T. Greene ahead of Rasmus among their choices, but Jocketty flipped them. (IMO, this would be because Walt talked to Mr. Rasmus who told him that the Marlins were interested in Colby. So the Cards took Colby with the pick before the Marlins and were still able to land Greeene after the Marlins took a pitcher between Rasmus and Greene.)
McCormick was a pretty good choice, based on talent. He had a plus/plus fastball. But teams backed off him in the few weeks before the draft and Boras was not looking for an above slot bonus, neither votes of confidence. In 2006, his shoulder was injured and the odds of rising after a serious shoulder operation have to be long. Same with Josh Wilson.
Furnish was a bad draft decision, since the Cards moved him up the draft board a couple of rounds and passed on a stud pitcher Masterson, traded by Boston to the Indians in the Victor Martinez deal this summer.
Mark Hamilton has some potential, though only at 1B or DH. He was a bargain for Abe Nunez, a journeyman. So was Lance Lynn as compensation for Troy Percival.
Jumbo, you know better than to make silly comparisons like that. Brendan Ryan was a seventh-round pick, with corresponding expectations. Tyler Greene was a highly-touted college prospect taken two picks after high-schooler Colby Rasmus five years ago. Despite being three years younger, Rasmus beat him to the majors. As a first-rounder, Greene was given $1.1M and now at 26 years of age and counting, projects as an infield reserve at best.
Ask any scout if Greene hasn’t been a disappointment to date in his professional career. I didn’t label him a bust above since he may prove to be useful yet.
Yes, Ryan is 7th rounder. He got hurt, draftwise, by being booted off his NAIA team. But Jumbo liked him as a 7th round pick and he played up to his ceiling in 2009.
Rasmus was fortunate not to need a knee operation after twisting his knee in 2007. Greene was less fortunate and had to endure the knife. It took him about a year to get back to trusting his knee. Its nice that he has recovered his base stealing.
I would never predict Greene an infield reserve at best. The same could have been said of Brendan in 2008, but he caught an opportunity (with Khalil having his problem) and got a chance. Tyler has a stronger arm, slugging, and speed to B. Ryan. B. Ryan is a better contact hitter. Its hard to gauge which is more injury prone. Maybe Brendan will get hurt next year, though I hope not, and Greene will grab the baton from his fallen comrade. Right now, its hard to foresee. I am glad we have both Ryan and Greene, in lieu of Mitey Cesar.
And Albert Pujols may be the best 13th round pick ever, but so what? The article is not about mid-round overachievers. It is about first and second-round picks, guys that are expected to become stars. That is why they get paid a million bucks and more to sign. Some fall short. They become disappointments. Again, I didn’t label Greene a bust, but if he does not become a productive major leaguer, I would label him that in the future. Expectations for a first-rounder are higher. So far, he is a .222-hitting 26-year-old MLB prospect.
A guy picked at the end of the first round, like Rasmus, Marceaux, and Greene, in 05 and Ottavino in 06 have about a one third chance of spending 3 or more years at the ML level.
Greene enjoyed a good rookie season at Memphis. With Lugo and Ryan, the Cards have depth at SS. One might be traded.
One nice attribute about the minor league system is we have a good number of SSes, at different levels. Given a quarter century dry spell between Gary Templeton and Jack Wilson, its good to see the team cultivating more shortstops.
A good number of shortstops or a good number of good shortstops? I imagine the system has the same quantity as always. Assuming you mean good ones, did you bother to check out the nums by Kozma (.216 at Springfield) and Niko (.204 and moved to third!!!!)? How about fifth-rounder Jackson (.216 also)? Yunier Castillo batted .259 but avoided taking a single walk this season. Not even one. That is hard to do.
All this may make you feel warm all over, but I am less than enthusiastic.
Tyler Greene will be at spring training. Surely, there will be at least one reserve infield job opening. A first round pick unable to stick on the roster in his 6th year would be a disappointment to say the least. I know Brian’s not a Hoffpauir fan, but I expect him to contend for a job as well, for one thing he can take a walk.
Remember the days when hitting .220 was not a problem for a shortstop.
“We still have interest in Mark DeRosa but clearly the way we’re going to have to make this work depends on what other pieces fall into place for us,” Mozeliak says. “I still think he’s a very nice fit for us, but we’ll have to wait and see.”
And so it begins……… you saw Scottie in his special Dugout level suite right behind the plate. What a character.
The word is that they won’t be choosing FA’s to negotiate with till Tony decides. Is Tony just waiting for Albert’s doctor visit? Or the Holiday numbers. The above message will send DeRosa to Chicago in a hurry. The Hal delay shows how weak management is. They will just be victims in the end.
If Tony is just waiting for Albert, think of what that implies about their personal dialog. The Cardinals openness to take Tony back is very odd considering what Tony is really basing his decision on. Albert is smart to get his work done independent of the Cardinal medical staff.
BB, Baltimore’s Mark Belanger made a career out of being a .220 hitter and I’m sure there are many more examples.
Brian I’m on board with your Tyler Greene assessment. My beef with his performance is more with his ability to strikeout every 3 at bats, although he did improve this year to every 4. If you’re a strike-out artist, and he is, then you better swing some heavy lumber. Tyler just doesn’t make enough contact for even a bench player. MO should have included him in one of his many top talent sell offs. (I’d bet Walt would have gotten the same players for less talent this season. Just an opinion)
Jarrett Hoffpauir on the other hand may not have the range (neither did Schu), but he can swing the stick or take a walk. High OBP’s are a good thing. I think he can be a very serviceable bench player.
I agree with Brian too on the dearth of quality shortstops in the system. Kozma made 35 errors this year and he’s considered our best defensive shortstop. I’d like the powers that be to take the foot off the gas pedal with Pete. Stop rushing the kid! What about Donovan Solano, can he be the next Jose Oquendo? In my humble opinion, the best SS prospect is Gabriel Hernandez. I think this kid will be electric. Cesar Valera could be good too.
To me, the one weakness in Luhnow’s teams selections is their judgement of top pitching talent. Their policy has been to draft hard throwers and hope to teach them how to hit the strike zone. They’ve all been failures that way so far. Nick Webber was the poster boy for that. McCormick, Ottavino, Wilson, Furnish, Degermen, Boggs, Norrish, Perez and let’s not forget Gary Daley Jr. have all had their troubles with the strike zone. I feel they need to readjust their sights. The best pitcher drafted was from he 26th round and yes he will be in our rotation next year. I’m speaking of Jaime Garcia of course and he has terrific contol.
I expect the Cards would select T. Greene again, if given a do-over. He is about where he should be, at this point, given a knee injury constituting about a 1 year set-back.
Greene was drafted in the 2nd round by the Atlanta Braves out of HS. He was a junior by eligibility, a senior by age coming out of Georgia Tech. He is toolsy (arm, pop, speed), though did not go higher in the draft because of an aluminum bat swing and inconsistency. Greene struggled in the first half of 2006 at Palm Beach, because a big swinger in a league where it is not easy to drive the ball. He was injured circa June 2007, missed the rest of that season and was slowed during the first half of 2008. He had a good rookie season at Memphis, with a strong OPS (851) for the position of SS, plus 31 steals in 34 attempts. We have seen examples of guys able to transition to the majors from Memphis (C. Duncan, Ludwick, Schumaker) if they show a solid OPS at Memphis. Greene compares favorably to them. He plays a premium defensive position, unlike Hoffpauir.
Mo has been mentioning to the P-D that he would like to give Freese a chance at 3B next sesason. Freese was a 5th year college senior before turning pro. The Cards come up with 26-27 year old rookies largely by intent.
Hoffpauir is ready for the majors, though may have a harder time earning a roster niche, since he cannot play SS. The Cards could look to trade Hoffpauir (or T Greene or Lugo), so as to try to harvest some value.
Kozma got bumped up a level, because of the Khalil problem. He did ok, for a Palm Beach kid playing a rung high. Solano was a cheap sign before the 2005 season. He gives useful depth. I like Ryan Jackson, the 5th rounder in 09. He can defend SS. He could improve hitting by filling out his frame and easily become a Belanger type. Stidham and Bolivar may come along well too. Hernandez and Valera are in the pipeline. Under Luhnow, the Cards have given priority to SS. Having home grown no SSes between Templeton and Jack Wilson (the latter getting traded), they now look to be well stocked from top to bottom of the minor league system, their own signees and with enough defensive ability to serve in the majors (unlike the Stubby Clapps of yesteryear).
I can even see why they drafted Ollie Marmol in 2007, non obvious at the time. They value defense at the position of SS. Marmol has the arm and legs to handle the position. He may get surpassed by others, but the Cards are doing a good job of signing defensively capable SSes.
Webber was a closer (Central Missou). Whereas the Cards kept Chris Perez and Adam Reifer in this role, they tried to add pitches to Webber’s repertoire by having him start games. Webber could not hold velocity far into a game as a starter and fizzled when returned to relief. Ottavino has more arm strength and has developed far better than Webber (or Chris Lambert or hard throwing Dennis Dove and Mark Michael).
The minor league success of Mortensen and Todd from the 07 draft made me hopeful that the Cards are doing a better job in valuing pitch quality.
In 2002, the Cards signed Kyle Boyer in the 4th rd, Mike McCoy in the 34th, Kevin Estrada in the 42nd. Boyer washed out fastest. McCoy even got 5 ML at bats this summer with the Rockies, but he’s a longshot for more.
Compared, Tyler Greene had an OPS at Memphis in 2009 nearly 200 points higher than McCoy when he was at Memphis. This differential reflects the athleticism that earned Greene a high bonus.
Jumbo said:
That doesn’t pass the common sense test for me. I expect that if the Cardinals had a do-over, they would be utterly delighted, falling all over themselves to instead take any number of other players still on the board when Greene was selected in 2005. For example:
Clay Buchholz
Jed Lowrie
Sean West
Nolan Reimold
Chase Headley
Kevin Slowey
Yunel Escobar
etc…
Regarding Belanger and his ilk, offensive expectations for the shortstop position have increased over time such that in today’s game, it seems far less likely a .228-hitting defensive specialist would have anywhere near the length of an MLB career that Belanger did.
As for David Kopp being considered a bust, I’m thinking of comps like Brad Lidge. Lidge was a first round draft pick in 1998 and pitched in a total of 23 games over his first FOUR seasons.
Lidge has put together a pretty good career since then, even with a famous gopher ball in the mix.
Of course, there are exceptions to every rule, but that is what they are, exceptions. I don’t care enough to spend the time to figure it out, but I would hazard a guess that there are many McCormicks to every Lidge. Further, probably just like Kopp, after four years, I would have called Lidge a bust, and perhaps like Kopp, I would also have acknowledged he could still emerge. In other words, I don’t consider “bust” a lifetime label. But so far for this player, yes I do.
P.S. I looked up Lidge out of curiosity. He pitched 100 innings over his first four years, not 23.
Jed Lowrie was the player I wanted the Birds to take, but didn’t they project him to be a 2b in the majors?
There’s no doubt that Tyler Greene has some intriguing skills; the speed and power for sure. I just can’t get past my gut feeling (not a good scouting tool I know) that he’ll never be able to make enough contact. If minor leaguers can fan him with apparent ease, what will the elite pitchers do to him. Tyler seems like a poor mans Carney Lansford.
Off topic: Do the Red Sox have the very best scouting in baseball or the very best development system? Hmmmmmm!!!!
The standards for SS shore have changed. Toronto has a player in John MacDonald who is every bit Belanger’s equal in the field and maybe slightly better with the bat and he’s considered a marginal bench player. Today’s SS have to not only hit for average, but with some power too. Brendan Ryan’s lack of pop makes him a borderline starter these days. Belanger today would garner enough splinters to have a ‘pressed board butt’.
St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols will undergo surgery on Wednesday to have five bone spurs removed from his right elbow, according to major-league sources.
The surgery will be performed by Cardinals team physician George Paletta and Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham, Ala.
Pujols is expected to be fully recovered by the start of spring training.
Several theory’s need tweaking now.
It was obviously a Cardinal source. How it should read;
Dr Andrews will do the surgery with Cardinal team physician, Giorgio looking on.
I’ll give Dr. Andrews the benefit of the doubt but aren’t bone spurs nature’s way of protecting a weak ligament? If so, removing them seems like a short term solution with potential long term problems.
WC, it is impossible not to see Boras standing there behind the screen on every pitch. He couldn’t pay for better advertising. I think I just heard him yell “Hey Holliday!” while Teixeira was batting.
Brendan Ryan’s OPS at Memphis (2007): 669. Tyler Greene’s OPS at Memphis (09): 851. A big advantage with the stick for Greene, at the same minor league level.
In 2008, Ryan’s OPS with the Cards was 596, below Cesar Izturis. If we went by Ryan’s 2008 hitting performance, real data, we would not have foreseen Ryan’s improvement in 2009 to 740. For their part, the Cards were unhopeful; they invested in the more expensive Khalil. If Khalil had better morale, Ryan might have ridden the bench and had a hard time getting untracked.
Mark Belanger had a career OPS of 580, yet lasted 18 seasons in the Bigs. Belanger’s example suggests hope for 5th round Univ. of Miami SS Ryan Jackson in the majors. Its nice to see the potential for good things in human beings.
In 2005, the Cards looked for players at premium defensive positions with the top two choices (Rasmus, Greene). Certainly Bucholz would have been a better choice than Greene, but this is not necessarily clear in 2005. Slowey and Esobar would have turned out to be better choices than our earlier choice of RHP Josh Wilson, since injured and released.
While it was nice the Cards lucked into Jaime Garcia from Texas at a low round, McCormick, Wilson, and Furnish were selections out of Texas who missed at a mch higher round. (We shall have to hope for more luck with Shelby Miller).
The Cards want to avoid dismal failures, like 2B Shaun Boyd (2000), RHP Blake Williams (2000), RHP Justin Pope (2001), RHP Chris Lambert (2004), McCormick, Herron, Wilson, Webber (05). In comparison to such misses, Greene is looking like decent value. The Cards wanted to add depth at SS and did so.
You would need a bigger dog to get him out of that corner Brian. He knows the camera angles.
I wonder if Hal McRae is somehow to blame for Albert’s bone chips? There were so many posts this summer about Albert’s mental problems and about how Hal had messed him up.
Now it emerges, in mere mundane reality no psychological flight of fantasy, Albert’s elbow was hurting. This helps explain Albert’s frustration with the end of the season and preference not to talk about it.
Albert’s elbow has hurt for the past seven years.
Belanger was a slugger compared to Maxville, 14 yrs., .217 career BA, .552 OPS, 6HR
This is routine maintenance on a problem elbow Jumbo. Get over it. If it hurt enough to effect his swing, he would have fixed it. The Tony watch is on because this isn’t going to be a factor. Holiday is history, as Boras has a big campaign going now. With the marginalizing of DeRosa so early, someone is making a play. Lets watch.
Brian I’m extremely disappointed in Boreass comparing Holliday to Teixeira. I was positive he was going to compare Ankiel to Teixeira and Holliday to God. Just when you think you know a man!
He’s not selling just baseball AX…………….. he is selling season tickets to hen pecked husbands who need a he man to show the wife so she lets him use the money.. He is selling advertising and jerseys. They can’t keep Hal now Jumbo. Sorry buddy. If Tony re ups, there will be conditions.
Jumbo I don’t recall anyone saying McRae messed up Albert’s swing, the rest of the team maybe. Personally I think Hal has zero to do with El Hombre’s swing. Pujols is a hitting genius; the reason he is an elite player is because he thinks the game better than most. Albert, more often than not, knows what’s coming before the catcher puts down the sign. Players on other teams seek out his advice on hitting.
If Albert couldn’t swing properly because of the spurs (how San Antonio is blamed for this I’ll never know) then I think you can safely assume that the frustration would have played heavily on his mind. Perfectionists don’t take being held back by outside forces very well. To be in the middle of a season for the ages and then all of the sudden be slammed back to earth by something out of his control, no doubt angered him immensely. Physical and mental pain are one and the same to elite competitors. You have to also consider that Pujols probably thought the pain was from his legiment, not bone spurs, which would have caused him to worry about it even more.
After Mo made the trades to help support Albert in the lineup and then all of the sudden Albert can’t hold up his end. Ouch! You know…..I mean you know that had to ware Albert out mentally. But, I’m speculating…..or educated guesses lets call it.
Brian, did you see any noticable difference in Albert’s demeanor going down the final few months of the season? Did he duck interviews? Did he avoid questions he’d normally answer? Did he just plain attempt to keep away from the press?
Boras is selling Boras Westy. The customers in the running for Holliday already have he- men, and they already know all about Holliday and why they want him. Boras has been known to sell players for big bucks to teams that never knew they wanted him before Scotty’s dog and pony show. This is not that. Self-promation, nothing to do with Holliday other than as a vehicle to get Boras some face time and print. Ankiel, now that will get the hard bound presentation on glossy paper.
Greed has always been the unspeakable scurge of baseball. Baseball for all of it’s immense glory has been repetedly raped over the years by it. The Black Sox scandal being a perfect example of it from both sides. Do you think it would have happened if Comiskey had shared more of his huge profits with the people who got it for him? No!, I certainly don’t condone what the players did either. Just wrong all around. Scott Boreass is the epitome of greed and has had a huge hand in the ruination of equity in the game.
Remember way back when Pittsburgh, Cincincati, Milwaukee, Kansas City et al use to be powerhouses because they built their teams wisely. Based purely on developing and keeping their top players. The playing field is so lopsided now and it’s all about greed. Mostly by the players. This was all leading to me supporting Westie’s assertion that Holliday is as good as gone.
I still recall Boras using Babe Ruth as a comp for Ankiel. Good luck trying that this winter.
Pujols is consistently surly toward the press, though until the very end of the season, he grudgingly gave group interviews when required. I generally try to cut him slack because I realize there are many tugging at him. When I have asked to discuss his charitable work and give him advance notice, he is more cooperative. He doesn’t like discussing the game or his play, let alone a subject like his health.
Kind of a Catch 22 with Albert. He’s a private kind of guy and yet it’s his own actions that bring all the attention down on himself.
Just by the little I know about Pujols and what he does during the course of a day, I’d say he has too many damn commitments………..and I don’t know the half of it! I do wish the team could kind of shelter him a little more from the extra curriculars, but I’m sure Albert being the selfless person he is would have none of it.
Brian I’m pretty sure Albert respects you for showing him a little understanding. Maybe he’ll let you ghost his autobiography some day.
Boras will have Ankiel talking to his shrink……….yes he has his own……… his people will work with Rick on a baseball swing. Ankiel’s sudden success created a difficult situation, complicating an intervention because he is so unstable emotionally. He will get a miniature Felix Lopez type of deal. Maybe a year with option. Probably incentive laden with a low base number. 1.4 with a chance to make 3. I would take him. His problems aren’t that hard to deal with. Tony’s strength, emotional support, became a liability in the end.
I think the playoff scheduling has a little more to it than selling tooth paste. I see why we might have been favored. It appears to have been designed for teams with 3 pitchers. I wonder who pushed that.
Albert is climbing a part of the mountain where there are no paths AX. Many have enjoyed fame in baseball………few with the type of wealth Albert has enjoyed. Many have fallen. He is a powerful charismatic caught in an ever shifting avalanche of fans and news hustlers. His family is his strength……….and his weakness (vulnerability). Tomorrow will be an interesting day. They may find trouble and decide to fix it. Who knows. Trying to find a cause to blame, other than the real one, is a dangerous path. …………His spiritual crisis will re invent a life play that he may conquer. He may subconsciously prefer a weak team to dominate, but that would be more denial. I really think maybe he doesn’t respect all his team mates. I doubt that Holiday did. Remember how he longed to play with the Dominicans.
The Cardinals aren’t exactly overwrought with hero’s. More boy scouts and squirrels than any thing else.
Last off-season, Pujols had an ulnar nerve transposition, IIRC. This must have given him pain relief and he came out strong during the first half of 2007. Health is a factor as regards his play.
Given his September decline, Pujols must want another operation. Now it is removing spurs.
It seems plausible that they will do the ligament too, once they look at it. One reason to involve James Andrews is for public relations. Hire a doctor with an elite reputation so if a decision needs to be made, it can be Andrews, not the team doctor. IIRC, Andrews was involved with the eventual decision to give Carpenter a TJ operation.
Axion, you seem to have a sound grasp of things when you describe Albert as perfectionist and self-less.
Westie too has a good description of Albert as caught in an avalanche of “fans and news hustlers.”
‘if a decision needs to be made, it can be Andrews, not the team doctor’. Nice pick up on that Jumbo, I think you’re exactly right. Now I’m worried He’ll be out til the break.
I wrote about parallels and differences between Carpenter’s and Pujols’ elbows, not posted at the main The Cardinal Nation site at Scout.com.
“Will Bad Elbows Unite Carpenter and Pujols?”
Or it could be Albert, guarding against possible conflicting interests. In 2008 they used Carpenter as the returning miracle worker, that justified not spending any money. That would be a very lucrative posture in 2010. It would also probably signal Tony’s retirement amongst other considerations. Andrews will do the chopping.
Surgery is done. Chips removed. Spurs debrided. TJ said not to have been required. Cardinals proclaim surgery “a success”. For the rest of us, the waiting will continue…
Tampa Bay is interested in Billy Wagner. If they can afford him, the Cards should be able to. Get a last good year out of him then let him go to the Rays. Wagner and Smotz in the pen would be awesome. Teach Mott how to get guys out with a fastball. Reduce workload on Franklin. Get a drum of ben-gay. Have to sell tickets next year some how. BW already poo-pood the idea last time I mentioned it, be he’s probably come to his senses by now. This relates to ‘early draft pick reurns’ somehow.
Fundamental mismatch. Wagner will want to close and want closer’s money. Cards will not want to demote Franklin. End of discussion, IMHO.
Brian, you don’t suppose Dr. Andrews put a little extra Crazy Glue on that ligament while he was in there?
Jumbo, it seems like they are fixing everything in Albert’s elbow except the major issue. This troubles me as a fan. It’s like everyone’s walking on eggshells all year. Will it finally snap or won’t it. A superhuman talent is non-replaceable during the season. Or it could be that as fans we just worry too much. He could go the rest of his career and the elbow be fine, which is as about as likely as the Yankees voting for a salary cap.
As for my grasp on Albert, I think that’s just common knowledge on him as a person. The sporting world is full of raving narcisists, but Pujols is the polar opposite of them. He has tremendous character; deep love for family and God; passion for his team and mates; a big heart for those less fortunate them him; healthy respect for the game; brilliantly astute powers of observation…………..and he’s also a pretty good ball player. I’m not sure which I respect more, his baseball talent or his role model perfection. Apparently his flaws boil down to being too generous with his time and being a little surly in press conferences. If he wasn’t married, I’d be sending my 23 year old daughter down to St.Louis to meet him.
If Franklin starts off the year like he finished it, how long does Tony stay with him before he switches up again? Wagner seems like a huge gamble to me, but Smoltz comes out firing. He’s the guy I’d take until our younger studs develop.
I’m guessing the Angels will be retooling at closer. I see problems ahead for Franklin and Motte. Motte’s best developmental possibilities have problems. He generates velocity from his motion. This makes off speed effectiveness complicated. Few closers save the desperate and old use a change up. Even his slider has a neon sign on it. His future lies in the cutter/fastball/ hard slider combo’s. Even then he will need to temper or tone down his motion a bit………… Wagner returned with a better motion and more movement than he used prior to his injury. He will be worth something.
Sounds like Albert has a big green light from a neutral surgeon. That in itself is a little provocative.
Those tears don’t heal much. I’m curious to lean more about last years diagnosis.
Just read your article Brian, it didn’t exactly ease my mind. Just when I’d gotten up enough courage to tap dance on those eggshells, you slap me back down with a dose of reality.
On the other hand, it was a good story. You connected all the dots and made the correlation.
Good information Brian. The question is, how is that ligament imping on his hitting motion? He was obviously opening up to quick from July on. Was he using in left side to pull the bat through the zone? None of his adjustments suggested that he was having a problem rotating his right forearm and elbow while extending his hands int the Zone. Plus, if that were the case, he surely would have had very abbreviated hitting workouts, which wasn’t the case. I’m filled with observational contradictions. There are mysteries here.
Brian, reading Goolds article. The care that is taken to not give judgmental observations or mis information while contradicting earlier reports is obvious. What is clear is the Palletta was just an observer representing the team and that Andrews had his normal team assisting. The mis information from the organization starting with yesterdays “leak” were deliberately intend to mislead. There is conflict here. Albert is obviously paying attention to his agents. I’m getting used to the stand alone sentences at the end of their pieces. Why this is necessary is the whole point here.
What is left open to interpretation is this very basic question: Was it determined that Pujols did not need TJS TODAY or EVER?
My guess is TODAY, which means the original problem lingers. If EVER, then how did a body part heal that doesn’t heal? Albert is really good, but not that good.
Ax, thanks for the comments on the Carp story. Of course, everyone is different and Carp is a pitcher, more reliant on the elbow, but the sequence of past events was too comparable not to call out. Following the Carp blueprint would have Albert try to play in the spring only to require TJS, thus ruining his entire 2010 season.
For what its worth, Albert’s lack of power was not just facing live pitching during games. My son and I often commented on it while watching batting practice before games later in the year. He would hit a few out, but he didn’t pound them out one after the next as he always had. He was centering it (not popping it or driving it into the ground), and generally hitting on the sweet spot (no can of corn off the end of the bat) but was not driving it and getting the loft, just stroking it out there.
Lets see if we can answer these questions.
1) Do Albert’s problems stem from throwing of hitting too much?
2) Did Albert fly to Birmingham with Paletta, or from the Dominican as reported last week?
3) Since Albert is not talking to the press, are all reported details being generated by the organization to obscure other issues, and is their involvement a consequence of more complex contractual obligation and privileges?
In defense of Albert’s surliness, read this assessment of the latest Dominican interview flap. I have found it is usually not positive when people reporting the news become part of the news.
Having said that, I hope Jumbo and others who feel as he does can see clearly enough not to paint all media with the same wide brush.
BB and WCW, it doesn’t look like the fans will get any answers to those questions. Only Albert really and truly knows for sure and you couldn’t pry that info out of him even if you were his mother. So Westie, it’s best to go back down to the beach and watch the sunset and comtemplate other meanings of life. The meaning of Cardinal life just doesn’t look like it’s going to be solved any time soon.
It might be interesting to know if Albert Flew all the way to St Louis from the Dominican just to fly back to Birmingham with Paletta. Thats got to be knowable. The answer to that question would say many things.
This is an example of the writing in question. Joe Strauss;
“Andrews examined results from an MRI before offering Tuesday’s opinion.
Cardinals medical supervisor Dr. George Paletta accompanied Pujols, underscoring the possibility of a more complicated procedure.
Paletta typically does not accompany players on trips such as Tuesday’s when only bone spurs or chips are suspected. Likewise, Pujols probably would have remained in St. Louis for such a procedure.”
The total impression given is that Albert went with Paletta from St. Louis. But of course it doesn’t really say that, does it. The trip was from Albert’s hotel, or the airport? To Andrews office. I’m speculating that Albert did this on his own initiative and that the Cardinals were there by contractual right. Thus all the double speak. I mean give me a break. If his tendon was fine, the hustle was on last year. For obvious reasons that have been talked about here often enough. Lets watch and see if Albert makes a statement.
Wednesday’s surgery will be performed by Cardinals team physician George Paletta and Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham, Ala………………………………Rosenthal’s leak.
I love it it!
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/commishs-hot-stove/commishs-hot-stove/cardinal-beat-updates/2009/10/pujols-after-surgery-cant-wait-to-see-you-in-jupiter
That pretty much covers it. All legal and everything.
Albert should have mentioned that a miracle occurred. His ligament, an anatomical structure which does not heal, was proclaimed “completely healthy” by Drs. Paletta and Andrews.
Looks like Albert did his famous Dominican interview over the phone. Thats one thing that seems apparent.
Paletta and Pujols’ agent traveled to Birmingham for the surgery. Mozeliak confirmed that Paletta was there in case something more significant was needed than the planned removal of bone spurs and chips. Mozeliak said “the thinking was if there was a reconstruction, Paletta would be a part of the process.”
Whats the point of all of this ego soothing detail now?….Scrub up George, this is getting nasty….it goes on and on. There was undoubtedly an insurance carrier there with his specialist too. What a lumpy rug we have now.
Gawd, I hate the idea of defending the Cardinal medical staff but….If there are bone chips it means there is something wrong with the ligament or they wouldn’t have occurred. Obviously the degree could be in question but to say it is completely healthy seems dubious at best.
The very bias and possessive news making by the Cardinal Organization continues to evolve, challenging reason most often, but in the end who really cares. The Cardinals are a business and they have every right to influence their customers toward a more profitable relationship.
These are a few of the questions that I feel some resolution about.
1) Why the contentious posturing by Albert at years end?
Very likely, a distressed Albert requested, through his agent possibly, a review of his elbow problems by an independent doctor at seasons end. Apparently this request was received with some concern by the Cardinals. ( Reasons for concern? Take your pick.) Possibly, the Albert camp took exception to the tone of this dialog and he ceased being cooperative to Managements needs. (Refusing to talk to the press at Mo’s request while excepting a phone interview with a Dominican radio station).
2) This comment by Mo; Mozeliak said “the thinking was if there was a reconstruction, Paletta would be a part of the process.”
Understanding a bit about this; the rights and privileges of the employer and their business associates, Albert’s contract insurance carrier, both had the right for review and input on these procedures. (Most all claims for insurance payouts on the loss of services are settled before a judge at some point.) This would not include intervention in Dr. Andrews procedure, but overseeing the surgical removal of ligament materials from the another parts of the insured beast. (no way Albert uses cadaver tissue unless it was from superman).
3) What does this have to do with anything?
All parties now have a medical report and a procedural/ exploratory video which shows the real state of Albert’s ligament. This makes the Insurance carrier happy. This is a nice selling tool for an enterprising agent. This either heightens or relieves Albert’s worries about potential conflict of interest with the cardinal medical staff. ( “You want to just do the Tj surgery while were in here. This thing could blow at any time”).
There is fertile ground for endless speculation on these topics, all leading through the process of “reductive symmetry” to the elevated perspective characterized by the statement, ” I like the Phillies to beat the Yankee’s in 6″. ( We will never hit like these teams unless we get a hitting coach. Cubs pay 2million plus for Jarmillo).
Oh yeah………..bone chips can bet characterized as particles as small as a grain of sand. They can be caused by stress and or friction on the bone surface. ( or just left over junk from filing a groove to seat a rerouted nerve)
Hasn’t Albert gone to Dr. Andrews before for a second opinion or is that just my memory showing my age?
The Cards treated Carp’s problem conseratively. They hoped to avoid a TJ operation. In due course, they found an operation was necessary.
In Albert’s case, he is likely the one making the treatment decisions.
He seems to have an aversion to TJ surgery, if he can keep playing without it. He has to have borne a lot of pain during the past 7 years, as a result.
Albert has a guaranteed contract. If he decides he needs an operation, he will still get paid. while on the DL Some other players would just do the operation to put it behind them. Albert wants to keep playing. He has a remarkable work ethic.
Well at least Mozeliak and Pujols finally admitted the worst kept secret in baseball; that Albert’s elbow was in discomfort (the degree of which still remains unknown) for a good portion of the year. TLR came clean earlier that he might have a touch of said discomfort.
I think the feeble attempt by the team to claim nothing was wrong was an insulting tact to Joe Fan. It’s like Cardinal Nation as a whole was too stupid to see the obvious drop in production; the change in his swing and the opposing teams new found gonads to pitch to him. Obviously they didn’t want to give any advantage to the other teams by coming forth with that info, but you know what? I have to think any advanced scout worth his salt picks up on Albert’s fall from superhuman grace.
Westie, while the whole affair may have been wraught with conspiracy and coverup. At least we have some closure on the issue and we can move on to the next topic. Brian, what have you got for us?
P-D story about the Sporting News interview with McGwire, where he says Pujols would get $30M+/yr if he were on the FA market. Bet its a plant, either by parties unknown to get Albert to not re-up for the Cards number and come on the market after2011, or by Beverly Hills to make their number seem like a bargain.
Axion, btw, I like a lot of your comments. Strong knowledge of the farm system.
Some aspects of the myseterious Pujols situation may be refreshingly simple. Obviously Albert had a physical problem. But if the player chooses not to acknowledge this to the presss, the team should not disclose the injury. This would be true for any player. Players can reveal their aches and pains, but the employer should generally not violate a guys right to privacy about his conditions. So Albert’s mysterious slump is not intended to be insulting to fans. Its crazy, but its the way things have to be, I guess. If Albert has a physical vulnerability, he chooses not to reveal it to opposing pitchers by talking about it. Even though everyone knows something is amiss.
Axion, you wonder why the Cards do not go in there and fix the elbow properly. This had to be done with Carpenter and Chris probably wanted this.
But Albert is probably calling the shots about Albert’s elbow. It does not matter what Paletta or Mo or DeWitt want. Players have a legitmate role in deciding what happens to them. Pujols prefers to trust in in his injured ligament or wants not to miss months of playing time. This is why Albert can announce his elbow if now fine. Its Albert’s opinion and he says the Doctors agree. Albert gets to decide what he wants to do and he feels he is playable.
It makes me wonder who extraordinary Pujols could be, if his elbow were genuinely sound.
I have to begrudgingly admit you’re correct Jumbo. It is Albert’s body and as such his right to keep it to himself. I just think if he would have said a long time ago that it was bothering him a little. The speculation runaway freight train wouldn’t have kicked up so much dirt on the way by. If you know what I’m saying.
As for the minor league system Jumbo, thanks for the compliment, but I’m not sure my knowledge measures up to yours. Man you got the history of the players down; where they came from; when they were drafted; what brand of glove they use………..
BB, I just cringed when I read McGwire’s comment. I mean thanks a lot Mark, it will be hard enough for Mo trying to come up with a reasonable figure that all parties can live with. Memo to McGwire: “You’re not helping!!!!!!!”
IMO, Ted Williams was the greatest hitter ever. Add back those 5 years of military service (four of which were in the prime of his career) and let’s see who should hold all the records. Williams greatness will forever be frozen in time. Okay that’s tacky, but worth a few smiles. The point to these comments is that I feel Albert is every bit the technician Ted was at the plate and yeah I agree; what if Pujols had been healthy his whole career? The term “GODDY NUMBERS” becomes a literal translation.
I believe the number 30 was a complimentary affirmation of Albert’s comparative value in the market place in relationship to other “highly paid” super stars. Mark was just trying to be nice.
I personally don’t believe that Albert’s elbow was the source of his hitting problems. Fear of snapping the ligament could have played a part. If he was that paranoid about his early bat path causing pain and or catastrophe, he could have just changed its position. He did experiment some I will admit. The tactical advantage of moving him to cleanup if he was concealing an injury was to great for any of this to be true. That would make him a selfish A__H–le. There is a denial issue still developing here. It has cost us Holiday, and in the end probably Albert. I want to see the clean out video and the ligament. Lets hope it makes u-tube. Albert seemed excited about something that was revealed to him…………..about his elbow? the team? a clarification of his relationship to the management. I believe he thinks he scored somehow……lets see. I would have had it fixed in a minute if I were him. Right now! Maybe he wants Tony back that bad?
Westie, I’m beginning to think you have a growing friendship with Michael Moore. ((:
I ain’t going to see that movie (let’s just call it the ‘Cardinal Conspriacy Factor’ for now) either! LOL!!!
No conspiracy AX…………I think thats what is in Albert’s head. You would agree that whats happening doesn’t add up. To a winner anyway. In a way, I guess I hoped he would have the surgery. It doesn’t add up for anyone save Albert’s push for records to go on like this.
I can’t disagree that the ligament issue is not present in Albert’s mind on a daily basis. Surely it has to be. He’s totally cognizant of the consequences of one wrong swing. I’m sure when the soreness flairs up that he protects it with a lesser/ajusted swing.
I guess the questions still remain as to his motivation for not having the surgery. Is he afraid he’ll let down his team-mates and fans if his absense will cause a losing season? Is he worried his record setting string of numbers will be halted? Does he fear the surgery won’t be 100% corrective and therefore leave him unable to perform at his normal dizzying heights? Is it that Latin Machismo; he’s tough, he’ll be fine? Or is it as simple as he thinks his elbow is just fine and he’s just having technical issues with his swing? Will he feel guilty if he’s on the sideline and not ‘earning’ his salary? Maybe, being the role model his is, he just doesn’t want to let anyone down. Will the team revenues suffer if he’s not in the lineup?
A lot of things to think about for the man who only carries a nation on his shoulders. We the fans, don’t expect too much. Just that he’s able to be faster then Vince Coleman, more powerful than Mark McGwire, able to leap tall stadiums in a single bound. And we expect nothing less………………….no pressure there!!!
Good one AX……………..lots of reasonable questions to ponder. Some times lofty perches can disguise the nature of the bird. To be honest, I’m having a bit of a spiritual crisis of my own on this topic. I see and understand Albert with a flood of compassion, and yet the player/coach in me sees and resents his inability to remain in an emotional, competitive frame work with his teammates. Maybe just the suspicion that he prefers the first half of this season, to the second half. His challenges are formidable. I really think he wanted to play the world tourney just so he could disappear in a sea of manly “gaucho’s” who share in the game experience the way he remembers it.
If you look at this team, it really was a team of wannabes. Save for Carp and Waino, few hero’s to be found.
Pujols, Carpenter, and Wainwright are some of the very best at what they do. You can’t expect to field a whole team of MVP or Cy Young caliber players.
Be sure to read the article “why are the Phillies better” on the paper site. Also the fan response to” we’ll stand pat in the bull pen”……………….it is rich I must admit.
I have really got to start spellchecking my writing! Errors of haste lay waste to the space.
Nutlaw, no you certainly can’t expect us to field Yankeesque All-Star teams, but I do think we could easily carry a couple more stars. By the way, I would add Yadier to your short list. Molina is simply a game changer and that is the definition of a star.
Colby?????????? puppy…..be honest. He doesn’t even start in Pittsburgh. Maybe SD
Luddy????????? a boy scout
Shu ?????????? he shows grit but is hardly capable of PHilly emotionality. Really doesn’t have a role save the managements evasion at paying a 2nd baseman lead off man that will slap and steal etc.
Ryan????????????? If he were walking by the side of the road, I would be compelled to slow down. Way down.
The special ed guy are gone…………………..The pitchers are the men……..and rbi contenders with this lot.
Tony breeds individuals with his platoon system. I wish he would leave, but I see that he’s not.