“Every new beginning comes from some other beginnings end,” goes the well-known Semisonic tune “Closing Time”.
With the final out of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ three-game sweep of the Cardinals in the National League Division Series, St. Louis’ 2009-2010 off-season unofficially began.
Say goodbye to the following Cardinals, all impending free agents. They include the projected starting left side of the infield over the winter and two members of the season-opening rotation.
- Troy Glaus
- Khalil Greene
- Joel Pineiro
- Todd Wellemeyer
These players, also free agent eligible, may or may not return. Two, Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa, were acquired via trade during the season, while another, John Smoltz, was added after having been released by the Boston Red Sox:
- Rick Ankiel
- Mark DeRosa
- Matt Holliday
- Jason LaRue
- John Smoltz
The entire coaching staff is also not under contract for next season:
- Tony La Russa
- Dave Duncan
- Marty Mason
- Hal McRae
- Dave McKay
- Jose Oquendo
- Joe Pettini
- Mike Aldrete
As a footnote, in 13 first-round playoff series over his career with the White Sox, A’s and Cardinals, this was the first time a La Russa club was swept. His first-round record is now 9-4 overall, 6-2 with St. Louis. 2001 was his other Cardinals club that exited early, though they lost in the NLDS game five.
I guess we will hear about Tony before anything else.
Question about Arizona Fall League. There are some players with no team affiliation listed, and seem to be Japanese. Are these prospects from the Japan major league? Does their presense at AFL mean anything regarding any MLB clubs, ie are they being displayed for sale or the like? Or do the Japan teams use AFL for same purpose as MLB teams do?
Japanese players were previously in the Hawaii Winter League, but it folded. It looks like they are adding five pitchers on two AFL clubs instead this year. I believe they are players under contract to teams in the NPB, so it would be for development purposes.
For example, the three on the Desert Dogs are Hiroshi Katayama from the Rakuten Eagles. Ken Nishimura from Hanshin and Toshiyuki Yanuki from the Nippon Ham Fighters.
It may be quite an upheaval and exodus. We shall see. A cascade of falling dominoes can fall into place or fall out of place.
If TLR is not signed for 2010, then it makes sense for Holliday to have held off untill he sees how things unfold for 2010.
2010 seems highly unsettled.
While I agree it is most likely that Pineiro won’t be back, I wouldn’t call that a definite. If we fail to re-sign Holliday and Derosa and can’t find another bat they might decide to make the investment in pitching.
Just curious, CC. What odds would you place on Pineiro returning? I will offer mine, too…
10%
20% if we don’t re-sign Holliday
Joel has 0 chance of being signed. Tony will announce his retirement as agreed. Its difficult to say who may coach. DeRosa will almost surely go to the Cubs, fleeing instability here.
I marveled at how vulnerable the Cardinals hodge podge of hitters were to any organized scouting and pitching preparations. As I said weeks ago, “you don’t want to go to LA”. I am so relieved in many ways that this era has come to an end. The house will be cleaned. I could see Joe Torrey coming here in 2011 with his whole crew. That would mean a interim coach for many reasons in 2010….. Maybe Oquendo………….. that move might save Albert in his 2011 option year. If they really intend to.
I’m looking forward to watching the kids play. We have a left coming which is good. My favorite moment of todays game was Colby taking the ball off the wall and holding it while he evaluated whether Eithier would try to run in his face for third. By the time he finished this brilliant evaluation, Andre was sliding in. Rick Ankiel you are not young ling. You may all think Colby is the center fielder of the future here. I give that a 50/50 as whether he survives a new coaching regime. Oh yeah. Tony will come out of retirement in January.
Acknowledging that it didn’t end the way he hoped, Rasmus said this of his first October: “I loved it. This is what it’s all about for me. I just like being in this situation. I think it brings out the true colors in people. You can’t be nervous. All you can do is produce.”
Oops!!! say what!
“You were hoping to see something different,” general manager John Mozeliak said. “But as the series went on, you saw the same approaches and the same result.”
Nice……………
CC, I wouldn’t give Pineiro 5 percent and I don’t think Holliday matters. Some other team will give Joel a Suppanian deal and he will of course take it.
Jaime Garcia and Boggs can compete to replace Pineiro in 2010.
Its ironic that trading Chris Duncan to free up LF for Holliday, a reasonable thing, may have actually made it harder to re-sign Holliday by triggering Dave Duncan’s departure and unsettling the manager/coaching staff situation.
The human relationahip aspect to the business of baseball may turn out to boomerang on the DeWitts.
WC, I sure hope that LaRussa wouldn’t pull a Favre. That would be obnoxious.
Jumbo, I am not sure I feel your connection between the coaching uncertainty and Holliday’s contract plans. The two parties have only been together two months and can probably live without each other if need (money) be.
Since WC believes he can read minds, I will take a shot, too. TLR wants to accrue the second-most wins all-time and therefore will not retire any time soon. In fact, I will go as far as to suggest that if he thought he could live that long, he would take on Connie Mack, too…
10% =5% that Pineiro is willing to accept a bargian contract + 5% that DeWitt really wants to go all in next year.
There is only one mind Brian. All else is illusion……………….. Tony’s retirement is about appearances only. I believe there has been an agreement that this arrangement preserves both parties options and prerogatives without showing any estrangements. For the sake of argument, why would he stay with a team that will be much less than this years. Joel will take a modest 3 year deal with a rich team looking for a number 5. As I look at the year…………….. Tony is an AsWhole. Leaving Molina in the entire Wainwright 20th game debacle, even though he was hurting, and then apologizing by screw up the line up by batting him 6th all three playoff games……….last straw’s me big time. We I see the health and orderly accountability of Joe Torrey’s bench, it warms my heart……………
Brian, Tony is gone if for nothing more than advancing the Pujols talks. There has been a war on all year and the red ass-ed Dave show was nothing more than a causative distraction form the real issues. Both sides are vulnerable……….Mexican standoff. Tony’s moves in these playoffs were the acts a guy that knows he is moving on. I’m guessing AZ.
Brian, since Holliday can get huge money from 29 other teams, he will re-sign with the Cards only if he likes the situation (the city, the team’s ownership and management). DeWitt has been quoted in the PD saying Holliday can get more money from other teams, no massive secret for Dewitt to admit. Holliday has to decide whether to do what Mark McGwire chose or what Matt Morris chose with his 3 year deal for $30MM, he has to decide if he wants to stay for a few million a year less than 10 bigger market teams will pay. Its his choice. If so, its possible Holliday and Boras will want to know who will be manager in 2010. An important early domino is a decision by TLR.
TLR also is not unemployable in another town. He too is a free agent. A Chicago Tribune reporter speculates he could land in Cincinnatti. This reporter has come up with some wrong thoughts in the past, but the chance of this happenning seems greater than zero. TLR has honored his contract through the 2009 season. He can stay or he could choose to move along. Resolving this uncertainty would seem an early domino.
Cincinnati lacks the one thing I believe is most important to TLR – a realistic chance to win. Every year, I read about their hot young prospects. Sometimes they get out of the gate quickly but always return to normalcy. They just completed their ninth consecutive losing season.
WC, your comment that TLR leaving would advance the Pujols extension talks makes no sense to me.
Votto and Bruce will get better. Drew Stubbs had a 760 OPS and can upgrade CF.
If the Reds recruit Dave Duncan, he can improve the pitching. Bailey turned a corner, late in 2009. They will get back Volquez.
TLR knows the GM will aim to make the team competitive. Rolen dropped in on TLR in September to tell him no hard feelings.
The Cards had some losing seasons before TLR joined them, one year after Walt. TLR would look ahead toward what the Reds could become.
The situation is of DeWitt’s making.
We shall have to stay tuned. I suggest we need to hold onto our hats for this off-season’s roller coaster ride.
Has anyone seen or heard any context surrounding the MO quote. What question was asked for example. Any followup. Re.:
“You were hoping to see something different,” general manager John Mozeliak said. “But as the series went on, you saw the same approaches and the same result.”
A real impediment to TLR moving to Cinci for 2010 is Dusty. Walt will not want to disrespect Dusty. Maybe a face-saving solution could be found, whereby Dusty chooses of his own volition to step into another role.
One possible early key will be to see what happens with Dave Duncan. Walt chose not to rehire Dick Pole. So the pitching coach job in Cinci is open. This seems an invitation to Dave. Dave does not want to be a manager, he likes the job of pitching coach.
What do you do, if you are DeWitt and Mo? Let us imagine Dave Duncan says he is not coming back. And later he says he is signing on with the Reds. If this happens, you could wonder, what is TLR’s loyalty? He recommended Holliday and if Holliday is not re-signable, the Cards are out three pieces of their home-growing talent program. TLR is no longer a build from within kind of guy as he might have been when Canseco and McGwire came up with the As. Now, TLR has leaning toward veterans, why he urged trading Haren for Mulder. Is he the manager on the same page with the long-term business plan? No.
DeWitt says he would like to sign Albert to a long-term deal, lock him up as a life-long Cardinal. But DeWitt and TLR learned last winter that they had zero influence on the Hollywood agents for Brian Fuentes, the same agents for Pujols. Rumors are they do not want to do a life-long deal for Pujols this winter. If so, its to maximize their negotiating leverage for later. That is not an encouraging response for DeWitt to hear, because any player that wants more money can always get more from one of the richer teams.
Its a difficult, complicated situation for DeWitt and Mo.
Mo/DeWitt have been trying to do two things: 1. Stay competitive year to year while Pujols is here, and resign Pujols; 2. Develop more home-grown talent. They have been trying to combine and reconcile short-term and long-term goals. We shall have to see how this approach works out, this off-season, because the two goals have competing forces.
Last summer, the Brewers traded 3 prospects for a rental of Sabathia. Few would have expected CC to continue with the Brewers after 2008. What big time free agent would choose Milwaukee? No surprise, CC moved to the Yankees.
This summer, the Cards traded three propsects for a rental of Holliday. They hoped Holliday could serve two purposes, help us win in 2009 and resign, as did McGwire, Edmonds, and Rolen. Holliday may do so. Right now, its unclear. A lot is unsettled. Holliday has a lot of leverage, the best free agent corner OF, youthful.
Dave Duncan, TLR, Holliday, his agent Scottie B. Three or four dominoes at the center of the action.
A couple of minor indicators to watch for, this off season: Chris Duncan and Ankiel.
The Red Sox released Chris after a one month trial at AAA. His market value is not high. Chris will presumably sign with any team that will give him a AAA contract. The Reds could offer him one, in parallel with an offer to Dave as pitching coach.
Ankiel suffered a right shoulder injury with his fence collision in May. He was generally ineffective after he returned in June. Jocketty was part of giving Rick a chance as an OF. Walt was GM in 1997 when the Cards drafted Rick as a bonus baby. If Rick can rehab and strengthen his shoulder this winter, he might rebound and hit 30+ HRs in 2010. He might be a good rebound gamble for Jocketty to consider in the free agent market.
If so, this winter, Jocketty could potentially recruit Dave Duncan, Chris Duncan, and Rick Ankiel. He already recovered Rolen from Toronto. It should be an interesting off season.
Another unknown factor is Pujol’s elbow. He did not hit a HR after Sept 9. What if he finally needs long postponed TJ surgery? If so, it would be hard for the Cards to contend next year. This could tip Holliday or TLR to move on.
My guess TLR will return for 2010-11. I think he likes being a manager and would not want to move to another town to begin again. Dave Duncan may have more willingness to head to a new job.
Holliday will decide what he wants to do. He elected not to sign before the playoffs, as did Rolen. Since an elite free agent, the Cards will need to offer a lot to retain him. If he leaves, we get two compensatory draft picks in next year’s draft.
We should make an offer to DeRosa so as to try to get more compensatory picks.
When the team averages 2 runs in the playoffs, there is need to indicate to fans that the team is not satisfied with that. You can’t fire many hitters, but you can hire a new hitting coach. They turn over every few years.
Let it go Jumbo. Chris Duncan isn’t a factor in anyones thinking. Rick Ankiel did not hurt his shoulder. Rick will be given an opportunity with a team that believes they may be able to work with his talents. He was poorly coached by both Hal and Tony. Tony was a father figure that in the end could be no more supportive than Ricks real dad. Tony was the “tolerant” way forward, but in the end, Tony’s lack of hitting expertise limited his effectiveness at effecting Ricks mental and self esteem blocks. Let them go now.
I don’t believe Tony has anything going for him in Cincinnati. Tony isn’t in the Cardinals master plan now either………….. if he wanted to throw a wrench in the machinery, he would just say,” what the hell, sure we’ll come back”………………………… That would be a show.
Like chess Brian, each piece has its own rules for usage. Albert, as fine as he is as a person and a ball player, is no more than a Pawn in this game. Don’t get me wrong. He is a glorified pawn indeed, ready to be Kinged, possibly, with a great sacrifice of resources usually reserved for the Nobility….
He is an artist, an entertainer, a gladiator, no more. There are those that consider and calculate whether his worth merits the sacrifice.
Don’t forget how distorted the market place is. Manny at 2/45………….did you see any 100,000$ at bats from him recently. BD is an activist for his class. Be open to seeing what is actually happening now. I know this. The hype surrounding Albert isn’t just a local fabrication, nor is it a shared recognition of his abilities by the baseball community. I pointed out that he was injured when it happened and the wound to me was obvious. I know the cause, and that not everyone that seeks, gets the opportunity to aspire greatly. His adversary is self doubt now. As it is and always has been for all that compete. The stagging for his struggle is intimidating to contemplate. Historically, there are a terribly low percentage of survivors.
On a lighter note. How about the damage to the Johnathan Papelbon entity. After all the mouthing off earlier in the year, to be wearing the Red Sox myth around his neck, treading deep water. Yikes!
When Yadi blundered into the out at third, I held my breath waiting for the shot of Tony throwing off his hat and stomping off, as we saw when Colby did it. That shot never came of course. That is the environment that Colby and other rookies are working with. I’ve heard it mentioned that the rookies coming up to the Cards seem to suffer arrested development lately. If so, then the combination of more rookies next year, and more Tony next year may not be a good idea. I’m not sure that even high profile vets like Holiday really feel like part of the ‘in’ crowd. Tony seems to take for granted that he can come back if he wants to. I’m not so sure, unless he’s willing to get a talking to, and do what it takes to institute a different clubhouse dynamic next year.
bb, my initial reaction to the Molina play was like yours – TLR has a double-standard. Then I remembered that Colby’s out was the first of the inning, while Yadi’s was the second, I believe. It was still a blunder, but perhaps not quite of the same magnitude.
Dewitt has been quoted multiple times saying TLR has an open invitation to return. I don’t think TLR will be changing how he does anything after 30 years. They will have to deal with what he is.
My impression, not based on data, is that developing a very close relationship with certain players, formiing a sort of inner ‘circle’ kind of thing is not a 30 year thing, but recent. At least to the point that it affects the clubhouse. My theory is that Tony, Dave and Walt were a gang of three for most of the time the last twenty years, and when Walt left, that hole, or void, was filled by certain key players. This created problems with unity, team psychology, atmosphere or whatever, which made it impossible for this tallented group to pull out of a slump that hit after the break. There was no ability to kick it up a notch, rookies sputtered, etc. This is relevant for 2010 because if Dave should leave, guess what? The original gang of three, now two will be down to one.
I totally disagree with your impression/theory. I am not in the clubhouse every day but am there enough to sense the basic environment. I find it unusual that people not there think they can determine what is happening behind the scenes and in people’s heads.
In terms of inner circle players, La Russa has always had them, back to Lansford, Stewart, Steinbach, Weiss, Eckersley, McGwire, Kile, even Ankiel. Read the new Rob Rains book, “Tony La Russa: Man on a Mission” and you will get a feel for how he has always interacted with his players. That has nothing to do with the manager-GM relationship.
A lot of interesting ideas get floated around here…
Funny you mention Rains book, I got it on my Kindle. Have only skimmed so far. Being there every day, or ‘enough’ could help, but could also hurt in that familiarity can cloud perception.. Before you blast me , let me say I only mean than its human nature to see what we expect to see, or have been subliminally conditioned to see, or what the rest of the group says they see, rather than what is actually there. Even massively skilled professionals, such as yourself, are still human. Where there is smoke, there is fire. Many small things didn’t make a lot of sense. The team didn’t bounce back., nor react well to pressure or adversity. Hot hitters didn’t stay in the lineup while hot. Yadi did bat 6th and the team did suffer for it. Ryan was allowed to be publically dissed, and Colby. Some guys didn’t have to hustle, flagrantly, over and over, right in front of a dugout full of rookies. We all know why Ankiel was sent up there at the end. It was a kindly pat on the back from Tony, good luck kid, and a white flag of surrender to the Dodgers. Its not over til its over doesn’t apply if it gets in the way of Tony’s little jestures. I doubt the book will explain how it was always like that in Chicago and Oakland, or in St. Louis for that matter. It is possible to percieve truth based upon observation, And I think that if Tony finds himself without Dave next year all this kind of thing could amplify.
Tony has made it clear he is not ready to decide…………. but is interested…………. Lets be patient and wait and see why Tony is interested and yet waiting. He knows front office tactics. If I’m not mistaken, he will be given enough cause to retire. These guys have been at this along time. Its not like Mo doesn’t no which of Tony’s buttons he’s going to press. Hal is history. Will Mo go after one of Tony’s long time cronies?
Will they pay Smoltz to close for them? Somebody will.
Albert talks to Tony…………what is Albert steaming about?????????????
Hey, Rick is pissed……….why is he so sure the Cards won’t make an offer? Because Scottie told him they would try a low ball offer, and they didn’t.
No matter what happens……….its already been decided. The soap opera is just for our entertainment..
bb, I will leave it to you and WC to develop all the possible theories as to why things happen or don’t. I just can’t get as worked up about it as you guys do.
My personal projection is that TLR will come back and likely so will Dave Duncan once all the smoke clears. The events surrounding Chris Duncan caused a lot of emotion and sometimes those kinds of matters can be blown out of proportion.
We will see what happens.
Speaking of Kindles, Chris Perez told me that Adam Wainwright carries one everywhere and is a believer. I asked Waino for pointers as I have been trying to interest my heavy-reading wife in one. No luck convincing her yet.
One positive from the series with the Dodgers was Rasmus took good at bats and had good results, even against southpaws. That should give him a positive experience on which to build.
Ankiel is out of the picture, with the Cards aiming to re-sign Holliday. If TLR returns and Holliday does not, the Cards could make a one year offer to Ankiel. But he could attract offers from other teams hoping he can strengthen the right shoulder and rebound.
The Cards are a predominantly right swinging, with Rasmus and Schumaker the exceptions. They could use more assistance than Thurston can provide with the stick.
Also positive was Skip got off to a hot start against a lefty. He was then benched of course.
bb, whether or not you appreciate numbers, that is how the manager often makes his lineups.
Did you know that Skip is 0-for-4 with three strikeouts against Kershaw, the game two starter? Maybe TLR thought Lugo could at least make contact.
Jumbo, Colby doubles to right, then left, then center……… if he would have been pressured to do that all year, he might have helped more. He just spent the season speculating on the power numbers that pay so well. He needs a fresh approach to team playing.
Brian, I don’t like Tony as a coach. I don’t care for the platoon idiocy. Pretty simple. I really felt that Barden could have become a player with any support at all. Tony undermined his wellbeing and confidence to justify all the different line ups in which he could use Chris and Rick on his whim. He is an egotist without boundaries. Most coaches are content to venture their reputations and self esteem on important game decisions. Not Tony. He was the genius of using sub par talent to achieve success in spite of their mediocrity. Quite frankly, he is sub par as a game caller.
The Cards have been after Rasmus using the whole field for the past two years. He learned to hit another way and his father thought that was a ridiculous approach for him. Maybe because he lost some weight and strength, he adjusted his game for the playoffs. The way Rasmus hit in 2009 says nothing whatsoever about the pressure he got from TLR, Hal, and Aldrete, and speaks instead to the will of Rasmus.
The idea Barden is a ML player undermined by TLR is absurd. Barden is a AAAA player, in his late 20s, a guy who could play in the majors, but only if Fate strangely blesses him with a roster opening. There are many such men, yet fewer roster slots, so many do not find fame and fortune in the major leagues. When you have fringy players, like Thurston and Barden, a R/L platoon is a common, time tested approach. Since Chris and Rick do not play 3B, there is zero logical connection.
Some fun comments this season…..Ludwick would be released; Boston paying for Lugo enabled the Cards to pay Holliday; and now Brian Barden as a ML player undermined by the first ML manager to give him an opportunity, however brief.
But its good to be honest, Westie. Itts good to share your thoughts openly, not profess something you do not think.
Player of the Month and then the bench…….
Ludwick could have been release…………..
The Lugo deal was described exactly as it happened.
WC, perhaps the problem is in how you sometimes explain what you are thinking, but many of your ideas come across as illogical. I choose not to engage on many of them, though I often either do not understand or disagree. That is ok. You remain welcome to post here, but you should not be surprised when others question you or recall certain past positions taken that do not seem to jibe with the common view.
All I can say about Brian Barden is that he has been placed on waivers twice in the last two years, including once since his strong start to the 2009 season. That means another organization could have taken him for virtually nothing. All they would have had to do is place him on their 40-man roster. 29 other organizations passed – two different times. The last time, he could have declared free agency, but instead chose to remain with Memphis. Together, that tells me all I need to know.
Ludwick could have been released, becasue anything could happen. But it was unlikely when you predicted it and it turned out that Luddy was 2nd on the team in RBIs. He is also salary controlled and a good ROI.
You were unable to persuade me to see the Lugo deal as you imagine it financially. It was a good deal for the Cards, because Boston is so high spending, it is willing sometimes to shed assets.
Barden got lucky to fit onto the roster owing to the injuries to Glaus, Freese, and Mather. Because he was a minor league grey beard, Barden was not intimidated to jump into the majors and he collected some hits. Its hard to stay sharp when you are the right side of a platoon, so he declined. Unfortunately for Mr. Barden, its going to be hard for him to fight his way back onto a ML roster. Its tough to be an undersized, right swining 3Bman. Its just the way of the world.
Brian, I think that whether or not a guy is on a roll is more important. How is somebody supposed to get hot if they get benched when they might be heating up? Luddy got the cold shower treatment numerous times, basically any time he showed any sign of getting hot. Tony’s determination to go by the numbers, ie past performance, to the near total exclusion of considerations as to who’s hot and who’s not right now reminds me of fantasy baseball.
Swell…………………….. The Cardinals will conclude the Lugo deal with a payment to Boston between 1.5 and 2 million in coming weeks. Bostons only incentive. Interest on their investment if you will.
Ludwick doesn’t make my team……… enough said about that. Both of you are closet romantics, and it surprises me that you think the value of a player is so easily discerned. I was rooting for Barden. He showed some heart. He has a story. He got his chance and did something with it. It didn’t matter.
I will leave you guys to work through this interesting off season. I’ll check back in after the winter meeting. Best of luck.
I was rooting for Barden too. So was TLR, who gave him his first ML playing time. After 3 years at AAA, Arizona just released the guy. TLR and I must be romantics and like to give AAAA types a shot. However, TLR has to be realistic and so when he had to do so, he sent Barden back down. TLR has had to do this a great number of times in his long career as a manager, so must know the routine, but it can’t be something he likes doing.
Barden has another opportunity to explore free agency this winter. If he sees greener grass elsewhere, here’s hoping he goes for it. Nothing against him personally or his story, but the Cardinals seem to have better options at his positions. In his case, at age 29 next season, a fresh start might be the best thing.
Playing days are short, so AAAA ballplayers need to carefully look around for anywhere they might have a chance to slip onto a ML roster. Barden’s strongest suit is positional flexibility: 2B, SS, 3B. Good luck to him.
Disappointing though the series with the Dodgers turned out to be, it is interesting to see the high spending Red Sox get eliminated in 3 games too. The fine close Papelbom gave up the lead in the 3rd game.
Also Huston Street of the Rockies gave up losses to the Phillies, even though he had a great regular season as a closer.
Vicente Padillo shut down the Cards in Game 3, pumping gas. He was released by the Rangers in mid-summer. He latched on with the Dodgers probably because he pitched for coach Larry Bowa in Philadelphia. Padilla lifted his K rate from about 5 per 9 innings to 9 with the Dodgers. To campaign for a new contract, Padilla started firing bee-bees. The Cards had a starting pitching advantage in the first two games, not in the 3rd.