With all the talk about the matchups during the upcoming Cardinals-Dodgers NLDS, there is an important late-game possibility that should strike even greater fear in the hearts of Cardinals fans than previously.
New Dodgers designated pinch hitter Jim Thome has a long, storied and deserved reputation for being a Cardinal killer. The left-handed slugger with 564 career home runs has an even 100 at-bats against St. Louis pitching in his 19-year career.
Thome has collected 43 hits versus Cardinals hurlers, so you can do the quick math. Of those, 18 were home runs with a whopping 40 RBI to his credit. In addition, he drew 31 walks, making his career line against the Cardinals a super-human .430/.565/1.010.
It goes without saying that Thome’s 1.575 OPS put up against the helpless St. Louis pitchers is by far his best career performance against any of the 30 MLB clubs. Having played in both leagues, Thome has faced them all, with a career OPS of .961.
But the Cardinals have a pair of new left-handed relievers in 2009, the only lefties on the club’s roster. Each has done a good job for St. Louis during the regular season.
Veterans Trever Miller and Dennys Reyes have each spent considerable time in the American League, so they have seen Thome before. They should be able to slow him down, right?
Unfortunately, it works the other way too. If you have a weak stomach, stop reading now.
Following is a summary of how Thome has fared against the two.
Versus Miller: More feast than famine for Thome. Good news for the Cards: three strikeouts in six plate appearances. Bad news: a single, double and a walk for four RBI in the other three appearances.
Versus Reyes: Even worse. In 13 plate appearances, Thome reached base six times. Three walks, a single and two home runs, five RBI. Two strikeouts, though.
Combined: 5-for-15 with five strikeouts plus four walks. A double and two home runs, nine RBI. .333 average, .600 on-base percentage, .800 slugging percentage for a nice, neat, devastating 1.400 OPS.
(For those who will surely ask, lefty Royce Ring, bumped from the 40-man roster earlier this season, exiled to Triple-A Memphis all summer long and not called up in September, had his own roller coaster ride with Thome. In four career plate appearances, Ring walked him twice and fanned him the other two.)
Remember the above results are not included in Thome’s career 1.575 OPS against the Cardinals above. Thome has yet to bat against St. Louis this season and therefore against either of the lefties since they first donned the Birds on the Bat.
So in a perverse sort of way, the optimists could observe that the Reyes and Miller-generated 1.400 OPS is actually more effective than the other Cardinals pitchers have been against Thome over time.
For the rest of us out here in the real world, look out if the game is on the line and Thome comes to the plate against any of the Cardinals. Though the 39-year-old cannot play in the field, he will likely be a factor during at least one crucial moment in the NLDS.
Don’t be even a tiny bit more confident if the pitcher tasked with trying to get him out is one of the Cardinals lefties.
Tony will walk Thome, which Torre knows. Some interesting strategery. Potential for one or the other to get outmanaged on national TV.
With the bases loaded?
Would Tony think out of the box and bring in Smoltz? Thome is 2-for-11 (.182) against him with four K’s and a GIDP. Smoltz also issued a pair of walks and Thome still managed a home run and four RBI. The big fly was a three-run shot on 5/27/05 in Atlanta.
Franklin walked him in their only career matchup.
Chess moves to consider. The question is, will Torrey leverage an important at bat for Eithier or Loney against a right hander in the 7 or the 8th. The answer will be yes. The pressure on Franklin mounts one way or another.
I believe from reading last nights “Tony strategy ” manual, that Lohse ,who will be acting as the long man, is looking to be the more probably 4th game starter. It seems that Smoltz as the middle 6th bail out or high pitch count relief is more likely to be used. Surely with Joel up, they will go with Smoltz if he has already appeared mid week.
Thome is a tidy .400, 4-for-10, against Lohse including a home run and two RBI. Kyle does have three Ks. Compared to most of the other StL pitchers, Lohse’s 1.200 OPS-against fits in nicely
Thome is even 7-for-24 with two homers and four doubles against Carp for a 1.101 OPS. He has never faced Wainwright. Pineiro has had some success, 3-for-13 (.231), but two of the hits were a double and a home run.
There is nowhere to hide from Thome!
Assuming no Welly and no Thompson, I think Tony will reserve Smoltz for the ultra high pressure key spot due to all the righties being just out of diapers. Let Hawk handle the more routine middle relief. Let Lohse be the 4th.
Scary thought: Motte lays one of those no-movement 99mph right down broadway. Whap!
Right BB……………he must salvage wins with the Aces at all costs. The rest will be mop up for better or for worse.
Small sample sizes of career history aside, pitching Smoltz against Thome would be a very bad idea. Smoltz shouldn’t be facing lefties at all if it can be avoided, and particularly not left-handed sluggers.
Good points Nut…………….. What a great game I’m watching in Minnesota. Wonderful heroic performances by both teams. So much well executed baseball. Joe Nathan is just money. Orlando Cabrera, another A’s cameo player, blends in nicely there. I wish he were a Cardinal……….oh, could of been? What a great diving play by Inge……….wow
Maybe we could dust off Rick Ankiel to pitch to Thome.
If Molina’s knee is sore, Jason Motte can catch Rick.
I like it Jumbo. Rick’s next career move is probably to switch back anyway.
Thome’s last two post seasons have been unimpressive. 99 was the last time he did anything in October.
The Dodgers strategy is to get to the Cards bullpen which I presume means running up pitch counts. Taking a lot of pitches I guess.
Rush Limbaugh waants to buy the Rams which means they will be a right thinking team that never runs to the left.
Tough to defend that right hand team………… Its hard to be real patient with Carp and Waino because they come right at you. Your right about the patients strategy BB. All good teams will do that. They throw that damn deuce for strikes is the Dodgers problem. Dodgers have a big stadium. If Skip starts in center, which is viable, what does that say about the state of Rasmus. Tony feels like he can’t even effect his hitting expectations? He is a wild card. Also, how critical is the 8th spot with a guy that changes speeds allot. I would play Rasmus and put some severe restrictions on his at bats.
There is the remote possibility that Tony is going to try to decrease Holidays inhibitions about covering a little mote ground. Shu I’m sure would call thing a little more clearly.
C’mon, WC. Skip isn’t going to be starting in center. Not a chance.
There could be no tactical reason of gaming the situation at Torrey. Tony is gaming Smoltz and Lohse because he feels they are depended on certain self image requirements. He wants them ready mentally on day 1. Thats his game. I think Rasmus is to simple to game. His swing is as narrow in function as Ankiel’s. What would be the purpose there. The full infield practice was to study Lugo and see if maybe he had gone mental.
Tony, floating this possibly, has something in mind. It will piss off BD but thats can’t be it. It could be that he is trying to lessen the blow on Colby and Rick, also being sure that Shumaker is ready.
There is a chance…………. not a good idea in my opinion either. I make Rasmus bunt and slap.
“I make Rasmus bunt and slap.”
Hearing that would make TLR laugh. Rasmus decides if he is going to bunt and slap, not Tony. If Rasmus decides to follow this approach, he will, the team has no say in the matter. The Cards encouraged Rasmus to do this in spring training 2008 and he did so, but did not make the team. Since then, Rasmus has been following his own approach; its not bunt and slap.
I see that Welly and Thompson are officially out. Tony probably agonized over going with the rookies. Smoltz will definatly be deployed with care. Schu has proven to be the reliable glove at second, Tony will field his best middle infield. I hope someone has talked to Rasmus about not playing too shallow at Dodger Stadium. Sometimes he thinks he’s Edmonds.
Dave Duncan probably gets to choose the pitchers. In 2006, Dave relied on rookie pitchers Wainwright, Johnson, and Kinney, during crunch time. Dave probably does not agonize in the slightest about going with Hawksworth and Boggs over Thompson and Wellemeyer. Dave is no nonsense.
TLR can use Dave’s recommendations to bump Freese. TLR can use rookie Boggs instead of Freese, showing he does not dislike rookies. We can justify this decision later in terms of needing depth in case old Smoltz has shoulder soreness. Or in case we need to use Motte as an emergency catcher, Boggs was there to replace Motte as a reliever.
Its a neat outcome. We have rationales, plenty of cover against second guessers, if there are any, at a later date.
Well, WC, I read that TLR tossed out the idea of Skip playing in center, so I stand corrected.
I still think it would leave TLR wide open to criticism for starting a new lineup in the playoffs that he did not deem was good enough to use all season long. With everyone healthy, accommodating injuries cannot be an excuse. Ankiel and Rasmus have been pretty consistent at their current levels.
Tony did use the Schu in center lineup against a lefty starter at least once that I remember late in the season.
You are right, bb. I looked it up and Schumaker had three starts in center over the 162 games.
Cool interactive batter stats thing on Cards hitters from P-D
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/multimedia-archive/2009/10/06/st-louis-cardinals-player-scouting-reports/
If Carp has to leave in the Seventh, Smoltz will be called, unless there is a lefty match up to delay that. That is of course if we have the lead. This can all be avoided if Albert decides to “get over it”.
Wolf is just a Dodger prayer. He should be dealt with appropriately.
Last night game was so remarkable, I can’t imagine what today will bring. There hardly seems a clear favorite anywhere………… Rockies? Cliff Lee is vulnerable. Have the Twins blown their wad? Yankees are chumps no matter what…toss up……………Torrey is the better motivator, Tony has the Ace…………. It really rests on Holiday and Pujols. If we don’t have more that a 1 run cushion in the 8th……..we lose.
Rasmus sucks against lefties even worse that I thought. He is also more likely to a mistake in center I believe than Schu. But I still would hate to see anything other than Schu and Ryan in middle infield, it would be asking for trouble. If anyone sees the lineup please post, I’m at work and have limited chance to check.
bb, just curious if you consider Skip a better defensive option in center overall than Rasmus? As you well know, Skip can’t be in two places at once, so choose your medicine. “None of the above” is not acceptable…
I predict Lugo will start at 2B, because we need someone to collect hits against a southpaw.
This displaces Skip, who TLR will move to CF. Why? Neither Rasmus not Schumaker hits great against lefties, so just go with the more experienced guy in the first game. If Skip gets shut down by the lefty, he may take it in stride. Rasmus will play CF when the other team starts a RHP, as a rookie getting the easier offensive matchup.
It all gets down to where you want to compromise, offense or defense. With Carp on the mound in Dodger Stadium, I would sacrifice offense to put my best defensive club on the field – the same one I stood behind for a majority of the season.
Why try to get cute tweaking the lineup all of the sudden? Ankiel and Rasmus have hit lefties poorly all season long. It isn’t a new occurrence. Last season, it was Skip that couldn’t hit lefties.
In your case, I guess TLRs strategy would be to try to get a lead and make the defensive upgrades later in the game when Wolf is knocked out. I can see that side, too.
No right or wrong answer – unless/until a critical error or a crucial stikeout with the bases loaded occurs. The ball seems to find the weak links when the spotlight is hottest. Here is hoping we aren’t second-guessing TLR in 12 hours from now…
I do consider Skip a more reliable center fielder even if less prone to spectacular plays. Colby had some pretty ugly plays going back for balls over his head. Also forgets he’s in charge out there. I also consider it inevitable that Colby will have a routine fly pop out of his glove at some point. But putting Skip out there means a lesser middle infield, which I consider to be more important. I’d rather sacrifice the small offensive improvement and keep the middle infield intact.
TLR could choose to go with Skip and with Rasmus, and bench Lugo. We shall have to see.
One reason TLR gets paid $4MM to fill out a lineup card is to be a lightning rod for receiving complaints after games. Whatever bad happens, we can blame it on Tony for being so smart and not thinking how to avoid the bad thing, whatever it turns out to be.
There is no one perfect, fool proof solution. Lugo helps with the bat but has made some errors recently. The Cards have been lousy versus lefties, so could use Lugo’s bat. Six of one, a half dozen of the other.
“Why get cute all of a sudden?”
For a while, TLR could have played Ankiel against lefties in CF so as to get him at bats, in hopes Rick’s bat would heat up. Unfortunately Rick continued to be ineffectual.
Realizing this, TLR would rather play Skip than Rick out in CF. Skip is a better defender than Ankiel. TLR may like Skip’s work ethic and want to keep him in the lineup. Skip did the hard job of moving to infield this season and has earned the reward of playing time, with his work ethic. Skip works out with McGwire and Holliday in the off-season. Skip is Tony’s guy or vice versa. TLR is not going to omit Skip from the lineup card.
That’s a 100% certainty Jumbo. Lets hope Tony doesn’t have to do the lightning rod thing.
Not sure if you are a sabermetric follower, bb, but if you are familiar with zone rating, here is Skip’s UZR as an outfielder last year compared to Rasmus’ this year.
Skip 2008 OF: -1.1
Colby 2009 OF: 10.2
They aren’t in the same area code. One is 11th highest in MLB, while the other is below average.
(For info purposes, Holliday’s 2009 UZR is 3.9, Ludwick is 1.8 and Ankiel is 0.6.)
Jumbo said: “Skip is Tony’s guy or vice versa.”
Funny, if you had said that phrase to me without the name and asked me to fill in the blank, I would have said “Ankiel”…
Before I start Skip in center I start Glaus at 3rd, Ludwick in CF and De Rosa in the OF. Of course doing that would highlight the stupidity of keeping Boggs over Freese.
Another way to make my point. I don’t see how the improvement in offense in Lugo over Rasmus is greater than weakening the defense at two crucial positions up the middle, centerfield and second base.
Thanks for the enlightenment Brian. I hope not to see Colby on the highlights for a negative reason, but I just have an uneasy feeling. Remember when Glen Brummer stole home. The next time he was on third I got the same feeling, and sure enough.
bb, I understand your uneasiness, but there is a reason Colby was out there all season long and Skip wasn’t. I don’t like the idea of changing horses now.
Edmonds used to call Schumaker a good glove worthy OF. He is surely better defensively than Ludwick in CF, DeRosa in the OF or Glaus at 3B.
While Brian may have found a good point about defensive edges with Rasmus and Skip at their normal positions, if TLR goes in another direction, he may consider additional factors, in the first game. Factors like rookies versus vets or playing Matt’s buddy Skip.
Freese is not entirely out of the picture. Almost, but not quite. I like this flexible new rule by which you can fill-in for an injury.
Ankiel may also be Tony’s guy, but we hope Rick is Tony’s bench-guy.
Rasmus plays up and goes back well. I can count the number of hits he has taken coming in on my legs. Shu actually wouldn’t be such a down grade, but the pressure on him would be considerable.
Did any one see the clip on Brandon Inge doing hospital work. Amazing courage.
WC, yes I saw the Inge feature on TBS and was very impressed. Unlike many who make photo op community appearances, Inge’s commitment is real. Most admirable.
Batting average and OPS vs. lefties this season:
Rasmus: .160, .474
Ankiel: .234, .563
Schumaker: .220, .518
None of these guys should be starting against LHP, flat out. Rasmus in particular should be plastered to the bench and possibly tied down just in case he tries to walk toward the plate.
Lugo needs to start at second against lefties. Needs to. Recent trouble aside, Lugo’s fielding stats at second base actually compare very closely to Schumaker’s. I wouldn’t say that the converted outfielder is an upgrade defensively at that position by any stretch.
I’m with CC. Play Glaus over any of the lefties.
Though Skip doesn’t deserve to play against LHP, I can certainly understand why LaRussa wouldn’t want either Rasmus or Ankiel to bat against Wolf. The man has given up only one HR to LHB in nearly 50 IP this season! There’s no point in sending the slugging left-handed outfielders to the plate against him.
Rasmus is capable of being a different kind of hitter if he put his mind to it.
All the Lugo talk was just that.
Schumaker 2B
Ryan SS
Pujols 1B
Holliday LF
Ludwick RF
Molina C
DeRosa 3B
Rasmus CF
Carpenter P
Its a fine lineup.
Yes, Rasmus is capable of being a different hitter, but its up to him to put his mind to it. Maybe batting 8th is encouragement to get on base
The Cards could use a win tonight. Then its blam another game tomorrow with Wainwright. A win tonight puts the Dodgers in a tough position.
Its a lineup focused on defense, reasonable with Carpenter pitching. We do not want to lose a game to miscues, if we can help it.
DeRosa is the best defender at 3B, given Troy’s iffy throwing. Rasmus best in CF, as Brian reported. If Lugo had not been making errors recently, he might start at 2B against the southpaw, but now he is on the bench.
The only questions for Tony in making up this lineup would be who to play at 2B against a southpaw and whether Molina’s knee is ok or could use more rest.
Boo! At least the lineup has six straight righties in the middle, though.
Shu will be looking to go off field all the way Nut. Tony was head tripping Colby. I’ll be.
Maybe Tony is going to be calling a lot of “takes” and bunts with both of them. I guess they decided Lugo had went mental. Tomorrows line up will be interesting if we can win tonight.
For the Cardinals, this post season will be about southpaws: Wolf, Kershaw with the Dodgers.
If we progress, it could be Lee, Happ, Hamels, Moyer from the Phils. The Cards are not going to go too far without tackling southpaws.
One thing I like is that we often make good choices in free agent and trade targets. A few years back, we wanted Randy Wolf when he became a free agent, but he wanted to go to the West Coast. Wolf must have a good year to start the playoffs, so we tried to recruit a good target.
We wanted Matt Holliday from the Rockies, offered Ludwick it is rumored, despite his 37 HRs last year. This season, Cards fans get to see that Holliday looks like the better hitter.
Well, I don’t think that there was any question that Holliday was or is a good hitter or that he was or is a better hitter than Ludwick. Still, I’m actually very happy that the Cards didn’t trade, what was it, Ludwick and Schumaker among others in exchange for Holliday?
The version I recall was those two plus Boggs to Colorado for Holliday.
Funny how things can change so rapidly. At that point last winter, the Cardinals seemingly had a surplus of outfielders. Now, they barely have four functional ones to put on the playoff roster and one of them is new in Holliday.
Trever got Thome this time!