In an earlier post, we considered number of league all-star game selections as one potential measure of relative yearly farm system strength. One variation introduced was participation in the annual MLB Futures Game, an all-star game of all-stars, so to speak.
Across MLB each summer, two equal rosters of top minor league prospects are selected respectively from the USA and outside the country, with the latter called the World team. The two squads face off in the game, held during MLB All-Star weekend.
Anything over the baseline of one yearly selection can be considered a positive indicator of top prospects at top levels of the organization, which is from where these players are sourced.
In the 11 years since the introduction of the Futures Game in 1999, the St. Louis Cardinals organization has been recognized with 20 invitations. The list includes 17 different players, with three having been named twice. Interestingly, the same 2005 draft class sourced all three multi-year selections, Colby Rasmus, Jaime Garcia and Bryan Anderson (pictured).
After having either one or two representatives each year, the Cardinals organization saw 2008 as their high-water mark to date at five selections. Not coincidentally, all three of the 2005 multi-year invitees were among them. Only three of the five Cardinals were active for the game however, as Garcia became ineligible to play due to his promotion to the major leagues while Rasmus was injured.
In 2009, the Cardinals also had three players in the contest held at Busch Stadium, Daryl Jones, Francisco Samuel and Brett Wallace, with the latter having since been traded away. Same fate for 2008 selection Jess Todd.
Of the 17 different Cardinals named to the game since its inception, only five have not yet reached the majors. All five appeared in the last two years and may still achieve the ultimate level of competition. They are Wallace, Anderson, Jones, Samuel and 2008 selection Fernando Salas.
Of their 13 Futures Game players originally drafted by the Cardinals, only three were compensatory picks, awarded to St. Louis for the loss of free agents to other clubs. The three are denoted by the letter “c” following their draft year and round below. They are Rasmus, Todd, taken in 2007, along with Josh Pearce from the 1999 draft.
In the following table, for informational purposes only, I also listed in parentheses selected Futures Game players then with other organizations who had either been Cardinals property previously or later became Cardinals.
Cardinals Futures Game selections by year, 1999-2009
| Year | # | Name (draft yr-round) | ||||
| 2009 | 3 | Wallace (’08-1) | D Jones (’05-3) | F Samuel (ND) | ||
| 2008 | 5 | Anderson (’05-4) | Ja Garcia (p)(’05-22) | F Salas (ND) | Todd (’07-2c) | Rasmus (i) (’05-1c) |
| 2007 | 2 | Anderson | Rasmus | |||
| 2006 | 1 | Ja Garcia | ||||
| 2005 | 1 | Lambert (’04-1) | (D Barton) | |||
| 2004 | 1 | B Thompson (’02-16) | ||||
| 2003 | 1 | Narveson (’00-2) | (K Greene) | (Ring) | ||
| 2002 | 1 | Journell (’99-4) | (Wainwright) | |||
| 2001 | 2 | Ortega (ND) | Pearce (’99-2c) | (R Ludwick) | (Pineiro) | |
| 2000 | 1 | Saturria (ND) | ||||
| 1999 | 2 | Ankiel (’97-2) | Kennedy (’97-1) | (Ozuna) | (Mulder) |
ND = non-drafted; i = injured, did not play; p = promoted, did not play
The final table breaks out the Futures Game selections by draft class. “Selections” include players invited more than once, while “Players” denote the number of unique names. The two right columns break out the quantity drafted between regular picks and compensatory ones.
Cardinals Futures Game 1999-2009 selections by draft round, 1997-2008 drafts
| Draft | Selections | Players | Regular | Comp |
| 2008 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2007 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2006 | 0 | |||
| 2005 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 2004 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2003 | 0 | |||
| 2002 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2001 | 0 | |||
| 2000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1999 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 1998 | 0 | |||
| 1997 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Non-drafted | 4 | 4 | ||
| Total | 20 | 17 | 10 | 3 |
Without the extraordinary class of 2005, Cardinals Futures Game selections probably would have remained at its previous level of one or two per year and may yet return there once that group of players age out of the development pipeline.
Over a 6 year period: Luis Saturria, Bill Ortega, Josh Pearce, Jimmy Journell, Chris Narveson, Brad Thompson, Chris Lambert. Ouch. There must have been a quota of one per team.
Rasmus, Jones, Anderson, Carcia are all lefties (swinger or pitcher). All from high school. There were 4 extra draft choices, Rasmus one of these. Jones was an above slot bonus. Garcia was a phenom when he arose in 2006, surprising baseball. Jones and Garcia signed by the same scout.
In 2008-9, the Cards began to get a flow out of Latin America with Samuel and Salas. Samuel must have drawn attention in 2008, so got nominated in 2009, though then lost the closer role to Sanchez at Springfield. The Cards did a nice job to find Salas in Mexico. The improved Latin program is likely to produce further talent in future years, but its hard to foresee specifically who will emerge.
Among the players parenthetically mentioned on the right side, Daric Barton, Adam Wainwright, Royce Ring, Khalil Greene (after his senior year), and Mark Mulder were each first rounders.
Ludwick was a 2nd rounder, Joel Pineiro about a 12th rounder, IIRC. For finding undervalued talent, its good to look young among the unheralded, including in Latin America as with Samuel.
Pineiro was a Puerto Rican kid who pitched in high school in the Orlando, FL area. He went to a junior college in southwest Florida, Edison. It discontinued inter-collegiate sports teams in 1997, so Joel may have been on Edison’s last baseball team. After the first couple of hundred top amateurs are signed each year, teams search in obscure places to try to discover talent.
What criticisms would I offer about how the Cards recruit amateur talent.
1. They have generally tried to pay slot bonuses. Now that they have strengthened the system’s depth, they are beginning to change, with big bonuses in Latin America in 2008 and this year, and with a big bonus for Shelby Miller.
2. They sometimes select highish picks based more on college results than tools and room for development in the years ahead. One clear example of this backfiring is RHP Eager in the 5th rd in 2007, while the Phillies selected a high upside, underachieving college OF Taylor with the next selection. Taylor seems to be a good prospect for the Phils. The 2006 4th rounder RHP Degerman pitched well in college, but had below average delivery and stuff and is now released. 2008 5th rounder Jaime Curtis is not a tool shed. 08 4th rounder RHP Gorgen is 5’10; potential for more development seems iffy; if you draft a big guy with poor control, he might harness this and improve given years of minor league play.
On the other hand, the Cards have generally been doing a good job finding value in college statistics, as with selections of Henley, Luna, Craig, Walters at lower rounds. And they have been recruiting more from high schools and junior colleges, at lower rounds and this is a good way to place bets.
Neither Holliday, nor Pujols were selected for the Futures Game. Pujols only spent one year in the minors, the likely reason he was not been selected.
Holliday was a 7th round pick, a 3rd baseman, who worked his way up, 5 and a half seasons in the minors, a career path more like Chris Duncan. Holliday switched to OF after 2.5 seasons, and did not put up huge numbers in the minors. He has grown into a better hitter at the major league level. So Holliday was probably not a hot enough minor league prospect to be selected for the Futures game. (Unlike Bill Ortega). Sobering.
In 2005, the Cards selection for the Futures Game was Chris Lambert. Maybe the Cards declined to let Anthony Reyes attend the Futures game, because he might have been “on call” to move up from Memphis if needed. Reyes is another guy who did not get a Futures Game nod. As a fast moving college senior, he did not spend a lot of time in the minors providing a modest “window” of time for FG selection.
For the futures game, the ideal candidates may be guys who have a year or two at A or AA, combined. They have not yet had a cup of coffee in the majors (now excluding Walters and Boggs), but have shown promise in pro ball (unlike Lambert). Pete Kozma could be selected next summer, if he repeats Springfield and catches up to the pitching. Darryl Jones could be tapped again, if he bounces back from injuries. Or catcher Bryan Anderson, same situation. Or Sanchez, Salas, or Samuel. Or someone new. It seems like every team gets at least one nominee, so the only question becomes how many a team gets per year above one. Selections have to factor the nominees of other teams too. Its hard to imagine why Chris Perez did not make the list in 2007, but maybe the squads had too many relief pitcher candidates.
Every organization could spin stories how their guys may have been disadvantaged here or there, but everyone is on equal ground. Again, without the 2005 draft, the Cardinals and the Futures Game would simply be a “meets minimum” non-story.
Edit: Without the 2005 draft, the Cards would have had two picks each in 2008 and 2009, a good but not great showing.
FWIW, I am not looking for a story per se, just considering the information.
Wikipedia says the Futures game players are selected by a combination of MLB teams and the publication Baseball America. BA participation can help explain selection of Jones in 09, though he did not have a strong season. A BA staffer liked Jones during 05/06 in the Appalachian league, and would have felt vindicated by his strong season in 2008 at Palm Beach enough to believe in his selection during 09.
Big bonuses and publicity help some guys make the FG, though do not help guys like Samuel and Salas, selected only owing to performance and/or tools. Yadier Molina, Schumaker, Joe Mather are others who have not made the FG.
If Reifer improves in 2010, he could be nominated, like Samuel, on the basis of a great fastball. Motte has a fine fastball, but was older, having caught, so was not in the FG. Guys like Allen Craig and David Freese may not make it, being cheap senior signs unlikely to reach the Hall of Fame. Big time physical tools coupled with youth, like Stanton of the Marlins, would profile well for the FG.
Another point that is positive that I am surprised Jumbo missed emphasizing is that in each of the last two years, a non-drafted international player was invited.
Certainly if every player had a better year next season, he could become a candidate.
Brian, re your point, I tried to make this point in my first in this thread. It is nice to see rays of hope in relation to international recruiting.
I sent a PM with a belated realization about Future Game nominations.
I am not trying to make positive or negative points, rather reasonable points.
You are right, Jumbo, I see the international comment now.
I thought of a negative comment about 2009.
It exrapolates from the construction of the Futures Game teams. It seems as if every team gets at least one selection, no matter what (Lambert, Saturria, Ortega, Journell, etc.) Overall, there are 25 guys on each roster, one a US born roster, the other foreign born players. With 30 selections given to teams, this leaves 20 roster spots based on talent (with fine tune balancing of domestic/foreign). Every team gets one guy, 20 teams are lucky to get two guys. Few teams are ever going to get 3, let alone 4 picks.
Yet the Cards got at least 3 in 2009 and 2008. In 2008, one reason is because Garcia was promoted and Salas was provided to fill his roster slot. Both men were born in Mexico. Brian informs me Rasmus was not originally selected, but was a replacement for someone else who got hurt. IMO, the Cards maxed out in 2008, at the typical ceiling of players per organization for this game, with 3. They got to add two more guys, because of one promotion and one injury among players on the initial rosters.
My negative comment is its hard to see how they got 3 more selectees in 09, because getting three kids into this game is really hard for any MLB team. Maybe the Cards cleverly gamed the system. Maybe they nominated Samuel. Baseball America would have insisted on Wallace and BA has a staffer who likes Jones, so added him too. If the Cards had instead nominated Wallace or Jones, they would have gotten just two honorees. Since the best minor league seasons by Jones and Samuel were 2008, not this summer, I agree with Brian that there was a peak in 2008 of Cards candidates for the honor of the Futures Game.
Jumbo (or others), if you were to see wholesale coaching changes in the system, would you consider that to be reflecting an understanding of the need for change after a subpar season or business as usual operations?
I am not convinced it was a subpar season in the minors. A normal season more like, following an unusually good year. I also saw in a P-D article, I think, that changes in minor league coaching is anticipated. Your article on Malony shows how much movement there is, so it would seem to be business as usual, possibly also some impetus from Dave’s comments, but I wouldn’t know on that. Someone prone to wild, emotionally inspired theories, might argue the anticipated changes are linked to cancelling instructs, the Tony/Dave/Luhnow coolness, etc.
The level of YTY personnel changes coming look to be extraordinary, whatever the reason.
While we have discussed there are many measures of a successful season, using won-loss record would confirm it was a subpar year, especially below Double-A, if you are willing to accept that par is .500, that is. Not saying you personally, bb, but some Cardinals fans seem to be from Lake Wobegon, where all the children are above average…
I had pointed out previously on the Maloney thread, that his record is sub .500 if you exclude a couple low A seasons about 15 years ago. Yet he’s considered successful.
I await Jumbo’s wisdom.
It seems that despite persistent rumors about Walt wanting to reconstitute the gang in Cincy, Tony staying here makes most sense, so what are the chances Oquendo will get a shot at managing somewhere?
Garrison’s show is well worth seeing live, especially in St. Paul. At least it was 4 or 5 years ago. The on location show wasn’t the same when I saw it.
It is all in to what you make the comparisons against, bb. Here is the link to an earlier article in which I laid out the Cardinals minor league records since 1984. This decade, the system had seven losing seasons after being five-and-five during the 1990′s.
Going back one decade further, I spent much of the 1980s living in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, so I too am very familiar with Prairie Home…
I found it a bit surprising that Oquendo decided not to manage in Puerto Rico this winter. With his limited managing resume, I would have expected he would jump on every opportunity. He should receive more interviews, but getting that first job is tough.
Brian, I would have to see what the changes are, but its good to say up front my unbiased opinion. Surprise. It would seem hard to infer anything.
Luhnow likes to experiment with changes. He helped Fick and Rigoli move from regional cross checkers to pro scouts. Some long-time insiders got moved out of the organization in a two year upheaval of 2006/7. The minors have seen tandem pitching rotations introduced. Mediocre talents promoted to AAA to be released (Ferris). An UDFA, Fiske, assigned to the AFL last fall. The Mike Marshall trained lefty given a trial at AA. Hill and Cruz tried at catcher. I dont think this stuff is aimless or change just for the sake of change. I think it is trying to squeeze value out of players, managers, and coaches by experimentation. Try to freshen things up.
Just because somebody has been doing one job for years does not mean they have to stay in that one job for the rest of their lives.
If there are a lot of personnel reassignments, this has probably been in the works and taken deliberate planning, even if some coaches and managers are only lately being informed.
Its probably about broadening the experiences of Cardinals coaches by giving them different jobs. It might be about finding better teachers. A strange thing about baseball is that if a manager is thought to be good, he may move up to a higher league. However, maybe for the organization’s benefit, your best teachers should be at low rungs, where guys could benefit from better coaching.
The more I think about whatever is to be announced, the more I think it does not have anything to do per se with won-loss records. The purpose of the minors is to develop talent for the Cards and minor league w-l percentages are only byproducts, not what DeWitt is primarily spending money to achieve.
There you have it. Jumbo, I hope the Cards are reading as you have given them a good head start on their press release!
It cannot be fun to be DeWitt. Who wants to help Boras set a salary record for Holliday? Gosh only knows how much the sharks representing Albert will want. The Red Sox went $104MM on D-Mat. What kind of bids will Pujols see from far richer teams than the Cards?
The only relief comes from Pepto Bismal and talent up from the farm system. The Cards are probably willing to make lots of changes from the way the system was in 2005. We have been tipped off that they are pursuing a “new model” of player development.
Uncle Walt has hired a former GM as a VP with seemingly unified scope over scouting and development. He’s now on board with the idea.
Kevin Towers got the boot from the new owner in San Diego. Kevin was supposed to be too much of a gunslinger, not enough process. So what is this code for? It sounds a little like DeWitt hiring Luhnow. Get better and more information on your scouting side so as to make better informed decisions. DeWitt unified amateur scouting and player development, now Uncle Walter may be doing this with the Reds. Now the Cards are said to be doing some more remodelling of player development.
The Cards have been having some difficulties developing inexperienced amateurs to enjoy some success at Quad Cities. They may want to look hard at feeder rungs (GCL, Johnson City, Batavia),, Extended Spring Training, and Quad Cities.