Recent posts comparing the St. Louis Cardinals minor league won-loss records and all-stars by level over the last two years have generated a lot of interest and discussion both on and off the blog.
A follow-on action I outlined was to document the all-star selections over a longer period of time, thereby putting 2008 and 2009 into clearer perspective. In doing so, 2004 was about as far back as I could go to be sure of having an apples-to-apples comparison considering franchise and league changes.
This window allows a view of three seasons prior to Jeff Luhnow ascending to the farm director’s role, which occurred in September, 2006, and three after. He had assumed full responsibility for the Cardinals drafts starting in 2005.
The top six primary farm clubs are included in the following analysis.
Cardinals minor league all-stars, 2004-2009
| All-Stars | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
| Triple-A | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Double-A | 13 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| A-Advanced | 3 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| A | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| Short-season A | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Short-season R | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 24 | 29 | 30 | 22 | 23 | 23 |
As the data indicates, the total level of all-stars was basically constant from 2004 through 2006. However, looking deeper, one can see the beginnings of growth in the short-season A New York-Penn League in 2005. That also marked the year considered by many to have been the first turnaround draft for the system.
In 2006, the yearly increases were taking root in A and A-Advanced and by 2007, the bulge arrived at Double-A along with continued growth at A-Advanced. The huge expansion in total all-stars that occurred in 2007 was almost totally fueled by the Double-A success.
Key names from the 2005 draft that helped drive the changes in the system in 2006 and 2007 were Colby Rasmus (first round), Bryan Anderson (fourth round) and Jaime Garcia (22nd round). All three were all-stars in the 2006 Midwest League and in the Double-A Texas League the following season.
In terms of total all-stars and by-level distribution, 2008 remained consistent with the high-water point in 2007.
The second wave of multi-year all-stars that helped sustain that level, a year behind the aforementioned group, include 2006 draftees Allen Craig (pictured – eighth round) and Luke Gregerson (28nd round). Both were A-Advanced all-stars in 2007 and Double-A stars in 2008.
This past summer’s overall decline in all-stars represented a return to the previous 2004-2006 level. The quantity of all-stars at the highest levels of the system was flat in 2009 compared to 2008, while there was a considerable drop at the class A levels. Players at those levels are younger, sourced from the most recent drafts.
Unless there is a significant turnaround in the quantity of 2010 all-stars, my feeling is that the 2007-2008 growth in total all-stars represented a spike from the strong 2005 draft and to a lesser extent 2006 that could not be sustained by later classes of Cardinals draftees.
So it looks like the two exceptional drafts happened when that was Luhnow’s job, without the responsibilities of farm director. At the end of 06 when he took over as farm boss, did someone else take over his previous job, or did his job expand to encompass more? Also, would those two drafts explain the rising prominance of Luhnow, which was a factor in Jockety leaving, which in turn might play a part in what Tony does?
Luhnow is a pon, an agent of change. Was he sacrificed? No, he is still on the board, defended by a castle and a King.
bb, Luhnow’s job expanded but there are plenty of others behind him. Regarding the politics, he and TLR have a cool relationship.
We had 4 extra premium draft picks in 2005, 3 in 2006, 2 in 2007, 1 in 2008 and reached zero in 2009. 10 additonal premium picks can really help.
In 2009, we also traded away Wallace (first round 08), Peterson (2nd rd 08), Mortensen (supplemental first round 07), Todd (second round 07), and Perez (supplemental 1st rd 06). Other teams want premium talent to relinquish rentals of DeRosa and Holliday. This often means high draft selections.
One of our extra premium picks in 05 was Herron, who was released this year. McCormick and Wilson, two more premium picks in 05 were lost to serious arm injuries in 06 and are non factors. Furnish and Webber have not excelled.
Gain 10 high picks, trade 5 just this summer, release 1 for non baseball reasons, and things start to even out. This may be why Luhnow bid on Wagner, to load up on a top talent, but the story did not have a happy ending.
If you credit the 2007/2008 bum mostly to the extra premium picks in 2005/2006 then that doesn´t speak well for Luhnow´s drafting or development skills.
Smoltz is old and cold. He is guarding his shoulder. He shouldn’t even be in the game.
Carioca, re comment 5, the table would be better designed if it identified the players by name. Brian could deal with this in a matrix format, akin to his matrix on all the players within the organization. This approach would be more enlightening for readers.
BTW, McCormick and Wilson were injured at Quad Cities in 2006, when the guy in charge of the farm system was the chap who got fired by DeWitt and is now deputy GM for the Braves, so their non development falls under his purview.
League All Star selections have a bias toward 1) guys who do not get promoted; 2) ringers who have more experience than others at their level. A 2nd enlightening approach would be to do a matrix of top 20 league prospects as claimed by Baseball America. These lists tend toward bonus babies (the guys scouts favor for their premium tools).
Jumbo, with all due respect, a table with over 150 names for would be unwieldy at best for the reader and a questionable use of my time to prepare for a one-time-only post.
I will, however, take this a bit further as I look to characterize comparative player movement over multiple years.
I have compiled the matrix for Baseball America top 20 league prospects. Sorry about the format.
2004
Appalachian #8 catcher Yarbrough (5th rd 03)
#19 if Delgado (25th? 04)
NYPa # 19 3B Jake Mullinax (14th 04)
Midwest # 2 catcher Brian Barton (1-03)
Florida none
Texas L none
Pacific #10 Yadier Molina (4th-2000)
Comment: Delgado and Mullinax were not good selections and did not last long. Barton lost value when he gave up catching.
2005 Baseball America Top 20 prospects by minor league
Appalachian #2 CF Rasmus (1-05)
#10 C Anderson (4-05)
#20 RHP Herron (1S-05)
SS Solano was a runner up
NYPa #10 SS Tyler Greene (1-05)
#19 RHP Webber (2-05)
Midwest, Florida, Texas leagues: zip
Pacific: #11 RHP Reyes (15-03)
2006
Appalachian League #6 CF Darryl Jones (3-05)
#9 RF Jon Edwards (14-06)
#12 RHP Blake King (42-05)
#13 Herron
NY-Pa #8 RHP Ottavino (1-06)
#12 1b Hamilton (2-06)
Midwest #4 Rasmus
#7 LHP Jaime Garcia (22-05)
#13 C Anderson
Florida #6 Rasmus (2nd listing)
#12 RF Terry Evans (47th rd-01)
#15 LHP Garcia (2nd listing)
Texas #19 Evans (2nd listing)
Pacific #13 RHP Reyes
2007
Gulf Coast League (new team for Cards)
#9 catcher Luis de la Cruz (Dominican signing)
#16 CF D’Marcus Ingram (25-06)
#17 RHP Hooker (7-07)
Appalachian league #7 SS Kozma (1-07)
NY-Pa league #13 Jess Todd (2-07)
Midwest #11 RHP Herron
Florida #15 Ottavino
Texas #1 Rasmus
#11 closer Chris Perez (1S-06)
#12 LHP Garcia
#17 catcher Anderson
#29 RF Joe Mather (3rd rd-01)
Memphis – no one
2008 BA Top 20 propects by league
Gulf Coast Cards — none
Appalachian Leauge – #13 SS Niko Vasquez (3rd-08)
New York PA – #3 closer Adam Reifer (11-07)
Midwest #5 3B Brett Wallace (1-08)
#15 SS Kozma
Florida #18 closer wildman Franciso Samuel (Dominican)
Texas League #6 RHP Todd
#13 CF D Jones
#16 CF Jon Jay (2nd rd-06)
#18 reliever Salas (Mexico)
Pacific Coast #1 Rasmus
#12 Perez
#14 Anderson
#16 Garcia
#17 Boggs
Frequency by year
2004 5 selections (even if 2 were unlikely)
2005 6
2006 11
2007 12
2008 14 (including Wallace, Todd, Perez, traded in 2009)
Of the 14 selections for 2008, in 2009 3 were traded.
Of the remaining 11, Anderson had a slow year; Jones was injured and had a slow year; Salas lost time to injury; Kozma got overpromoted so struggled versus older kids; Garcia spent most of the season rehabbing. Samuel, Reifer, and Vasquez did not have exciting seasons. Thats 8 of the 11 accounted for.
The final 3: Rasmus rose to the majors. Boggs was up and down between AAA and the majors. Jon Jay had a fine rookie year at AAA.
2009, they have announced 3 leagues so far…
Gulf Coast Cards were shut out.
Appalachian league: #8 catcher Robert Stock (2-09)
New York – Pa #17 RF Kyle Conley (7-09)
Source of player shows the importance of premium draft picks…..
Rd 1: Barton, Rasmus, Greene Ottavino, Kozma, Wallace (6)
Rd 1-supplemental: Herron, Perez (2)
Rd 2: Webber, Hamilton, Jay, Todd (4)
Rd 3: Jones, Mather, Vasquez (3)
Rd 4: Molina, Anderson (2)
Rd 5: Yarbrough
Rd 7: Hooker
Rd 11: Reifer
Rd 14: Mullinax, Edwards
Rd 15: Reyes
Rd 22: Garcia
Rd 25: Delgado, Ingram
Rd 42: King
Rd 47: Evans
International: de la Cruz, Samuel, Salas (3)
Jumbo, lots of good info, but I have more or less lost track of the point you are trying to make.
I think Jumbo was trying to refute my point that there was a dropoff in 2009 compared to 2008. But so far, he seems to be validating my conclusion instead.
He explained there were 14 top 20 prospects last season and just two this year at the lowest three levels. We would need 12 top prospects at the four top levels just to tie 2008. Given the struggles at Quad Cities and Palm Beach this year, it seems highly unlikely.
Brian, I was not trying to refute. I am trying to explain.
At the three lowest levels in 2008, there were Vasquez and Reifer. In 2009, these three teams again have two, Stock and Conley. No change there.
I identified the 14 honorees of 2008 by name, enabling fans to see what has happenned with them in 2009.
If we trade five Faberge eggs, as Bernie wanted, they are of course no longer around to be counted among talent in the system. There were no trades between 04 to 08 of BA saluted talent. We had to make some corporate course changes in 2009, to give Pujols more help, after the unexpected loss of Glaus and to woo Holliday with a long term mega deal.
I illustrated the importance of premium draft picks, including extras owing to compensation for departing veteran free agents.
On an encouraging note, if De la Cruz was saluted for his high upside in the Gulf Coast League in 2007 by BA, and if he is honored as an all star in 2009 at Batavia as I learned, these seem complimentary positive indicators, helping explain why the Cards had him at spring training in 09.
Jumbo, then like bb, I may not understand your central point(s) in the volume of data. I am going to try to net it out in 50 words or less.
I showed several data points (W-L record, all-stars) that indicate 2009 is a down year for the system. You seem to attribute it to some combination of unusual injuries, aggressive promotions, having fewer premium picks and trading away players.
The thing I’m trying to pull out of the info is whether there is any evidence that Luhnow’s draftee picking results were notably good, or was the surge due entirely to other factors. I had assumed that extraordinary skill and results in that area was responsible for his rise in position and influance.
In reply to Brian’s #8, I agree with the Cards [surprise, surprise] that minor league W-L records have uncertainties as an indicator of future ML outcomes.
There has been talk that the system has had more prospects. It may be that abundance, when it reaches AAA/AA, will encourage trades of prospects, because a competitive ML team will only have so much absorption capacity in the short-run. If you have a productive farm system providing more prospects than you can absorb, one indicator may be trading some to obtain vets in their primes.
Have there been more injuries than in other years? I do not know.
I do know there have been more trades of prospects this year. Also clearly the 2005/6 drafts had more high round selections, not to diminsh the merit of uncovering Jaime Garcia, Additon, Mulligan, at lower rounds. The Cards may have tried to make up for fewer premium picks in the US by escalating in Latin America with de la Cruz and Mateo.
I am cautious about the metric of all-star designees since it could be biased against an upwardly mobile system or at low rungs over-rate a college drafting team like the Cards, but maybe these designations still have merit. Sharing the names in a maxtrix format would make the metric more transparent.
Its probably uncommon for players to be consistent year after year. Consistency as with Pujols is a mark of greatness.
For normal mortals, including young players, performance will vary year to year, owing to a range of factors. As a result, if a guy is a genuine prospect one year, he may dip and rebound in ensuing years. “He is still the same guy.” If D. Jones or Joe Mather rebound from injuries, their performances will rebound. Samuel or Reifer have impressive arm strength and could lift their games. Its may be a little disappointing to them to have down years in 2009, best to forget about it and work at improving next season. Provided there is not a permanent erosion of capability via injury, quite a few guys who are honored as strong prospects one year should bounce back.
Cards shut out of Midewest league selections as well Not looking good for the system using BA prospect criteria.
Agreed, CC. BA has now covered all four levels that encompass the destinations for the 2009 draft class. Six picks two years ago, down to four last year, down to two this year is a trend that could not be spun positively. I have a post coming in the next few days that will refute the “aggressive promotion” theory for this year vs. last year, too.
The trades Jumbo cited affected only the top levels of the system. Even before the upper levels are disclosed, it seems to align with the earlier view presented that the lower levels are drier than in the past.
BA selections also have biases. They excluded Craig in 2007 and 2008, in part maybe because a senior sign, for small bucks, plus his defensive limitations. Similarly hard to know why Freese would not have made the PCL list in 08, but he too was a senior and a small bonus. Useful players can climb to the majors without nods from Baseball America. Maybe the “all star” metric Brian used can provide balance. Its good to consider both kinds of awards.
In 2009, who could have been selected from Quad Cities? Mulligan, but he could get tapped for A+ and AA. Cutler, but he was not a big bonus guy. Last year there was Kozma and Brett Wallace, first rounders, easy honorees by BA.
I am not sure I disagreed there were fewer honorees, so much as I suggested there were diagnoseable reasons why there were fewer (trades and fewer high draft picks). Daley and Vasquez were 3rd rounders at QC. Daley’s ceiling is reliever, though even that would now be a blessing. Vasquez could improve next year. Its can be a tough jump to the Midwest league for someone his age.
[...] an earlier post, we considered number of league all-star game selections as one potential measure of relative [...]
Well, it looks like we’re back down to 2004 levels in terms of BA league prospects.
PCL – 0
TL – 3 (1 no longer in our system)
FSL – 1 (no longer in our system)
MWL – 0
NYPL – 1
Appy – 1
GCL – 0
I personally believe our system is much stronger than that. We had the PCL runner ups with the youngest team in AAA but not one top prospect? We had 13 TL All Stars but only 3 top prospects? In any case, the rest of the baseball world seems to think our system has fallen tremendously.
Wow! If I count right, that is just four this year, which is even less than the 2004 total of five noted above. Not a good showing at all…
Just to play devil’s advocate with you, CC, I took at look at the community top 50 rankings you are co-running at Scout.com (nice work, BTW). In the top 16 selected so far, here are the Memphis names:
Garcia, Freese, Hawksworth, Craig, Descalso, Ottavino, Walters, Greene, Jay, Anderson and Hamilton.
A heavy representation at the top with 11 of the top 16 Cardinals prospects at Triple-A. Looking at the best of the best, Garcia and Freese had an injury-plagued year, Hawksworth is a major league reliever and may or may not be in BAs pool, Craig is a man without a position and Descalso did not impress in his initial Triple-A assignment. I will stop there. (Memphis’ only PCL all-star was none of the above, Nick Stavinoha.)
At Double-A, you have only three names ranked: Jones, Lynn and Sanchez. The first was injured and did not have a standout season while the two pitchers could have an argument for BA consideration. (Are they the two BA selected?)
I guess what I am saying is that there is quantity, but maybe not top quality, at least as shown in 2009 on the field. That could help explain why BA ranked (or didn’t rank) as they did. They probably want to write about guys that had solid seasons, not ones that were on the DL part or all of the time.
The early returns from the Scout.com community prospect list voting indicates how high-end loaded the system is right now, something I have been asserting for awhile. Of the top 16, the voters took 14 at Double-A and above plus two unprovens – top picks Miller and Stock from the 2009 draft – with nothing in between.
(If you haven’t already, check out the voting via the link above and join in.)
Usually, high end is good. But the Cards don’t seem to have a lot of openings so there seems to be a bunch of guys that are going to get squeezed. I guess a team really needs a steady level of distribution of prospects across levels.
This thread has convinced me though that much of our fram system resurgence was due to extra high picks in 2005/2006 that has not continued. Of course, ironically, it appears that this year we may get another group of those (depending on who we sign). Theoretically, the resurgent Latin program should have filled in the gap but it hasn’t.
I agree. Balance across levels would seem ideal.
I didn’t see great things from the extra 2005 picks other than Rasmus. The extra pick busts from 2005: McCormick, Herron, Wilson. Instead, I believe that the 2005 draft overall was simply extraordinary and the Cards are still reaping the tail end of the benefit.
Only
twothree players from 2006 have reached the majors to-date – P.J. Walters and Chris Perez, who was an extra pick. (Edit: I forgot Shane Robinson’s cup of coffee.) Along with Perez, the other extra picks were Furnish and Hamilton, neither rocketing to the top.For me, it is all about 2005: Rasmus, Greene, Jones, Anderson, Boggs, Stavinoha, Garcia is an impressive haul despite the three early extra-pick busts. In one of my previous posts, I showed the predominance of Futures Game selections have been players from that draft.