I propose EST could be an alternative way of training high school and jucos signed the preceding June. Most will not qualify for Quad Cities in April, even if they get fall instructional training. I do not claim this is known to be the new model, because we have to wait for the Cards to disclose a new model. But it seems they have greatly expanded the headcount at EST, so this could be the new model.

I don´t have enough evidence to say that the instructs are good ROI or not. However, you have offered that EST is the substitute for the Instructs and I am merely pointing out that that doesn´t work as a substitute for all players as some players don´t end up there.

You offer a new topic when you refer to training in Hawaii. Can you provide more context, please?

You think other teams don´t have a lot o guys in EST?

What about the guys like Miller, Stock, and another 15 or so guys who will start next year on full year teams – where is there Instructional League since they will have no EST?

In 2004, the Cards signed a 14th round 2bman out of Univ. of Nebraska, a senior, right swinger, Jake Mullinax. We like those Cornhuskers, as Brian knows. Mullinax went to the NY-Pa league, played 3B, got saluted by Baseball America as the 18th best prospect. Mullinax spent 05 in the Midwest League as a light-hitting 3Bman and retired. He was not a big enough hitter to meet the OPS needs of 3B, so he had fun for a couple of summers and did the smart thing.

This year the Cards signed Kyle Conley as a senior out of Univ of Washington. Big guy, right fielder, in the long run might be best at 1B. He started slow at Quad Cities, so they bumped him down to Batavia and he pounded the ball during August. Conley like Mullinax made the Top 20 list of BA (I dont have a subscription so have not read his scouting report). The good news is Conley was a stud at Batavia, so can probably jump to Palm Beach next spring. He did not make a league All Star team, but did get saluted by a good publication. But sometimes seniors who get saluted as rookie league all stars do not rise too many levels, as shown by Mullinax.

Luis De la Cruz was saluted by BA in 2007 for play in the Gulf Coast League. He is probably a strong long term propsect, since an elite defensive catcher. He has now been saluted for play in two different leagues.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/winter-baseball/winter-wonders/2009/268925.html

Brian has questioned the signing of Matt Clement. His pessimism was sustained.

Brian questioned early optimistic projections about Troy Glaus in 09. He won that one, too, while Mo looked uninformed.

I was dubious about Chris Duncan playing in 08 and the celebration of pain. Unfortunately, my doubts were sustained.

The Cards wooed Wagner Mateo and wanted him badly as a building block for their future. They suffered a setback when they found out about his eye injury. They will try to prevent that problem from happenning again. The Latin amateur market has a lot of pitfalls. Its hard to say that mistakes were made, because ultimately the Cards caught the problem, but it is still a temporary setback.

How about Parejo and De la Cruz? Parejo must be a good defensive CF and he is young and his hitting might improve. De la Cruz must be a great defensive catcher who could develop a contact swing like Molina and become a ML starter. These are guys with some tools and might be able to improve the hitting skill.

Sedbrook was a senior 22nd round from the Univ of Arizona and given his experience did well at this level, but a marginal prospect who did not do much in 2009, unsurprisingly.
Curtis and Parejo are both right swingers who do not have power or base-stealing. Curtis might have promise as a platoon 2Bman, Parejo is going to need to lift his batting average and play good defense in CF. They have not emerged as strong prospects yet.
Peterson is good, so got traded toward Holliday. Reifer is a high upside guy who struggled at PB. Nieto had a solid season.

The 2009 all stars were 3. De la Cruz, a strong defense young catcher, who will need to improve with the stick. Ahmady, a non power hitting 1Bman, a marginal prospect. Santo Maertz, a 2008 low round reliever out of a small college near New York, not an exciting prospect at this point; the Cards did not have room for him at QC.

Conley and Adams hit well and seem prospects, but were not selected. There were a number of pitchers who might have been selected, but were not.

If I compare year to year, Kozma is a better prospect than Cutler. Additon had a fine 2008 at QC. Kingrey was an all star but a modest prospect, now released.
In 2009, Quad Cities also had Casey Mulligan, who excelled, but got promoted so he did not get an all star berth. Archimedes Nieto got promoted and is promising. Castellano and Garcia earned promotions and have speed. Stidham and Schneider were 09 draftees who played well. So at least 6 guys showed promise but were not honored as all stars.

Jumbo, I acknowledged in the article that aggressive promotions could hurt and could help. Jess Todd was an all-star at two levels last year. Daniel Descalso was a Texas League post-season all-star despite not having played there in the second half. And again, since this was a YTY comparison, what evidence do we have that promotions were more aggressive this year than last?

Casey Mulligan would have qualified for a first half all star, but he got promoted in late May and ended the season at Springfield. He had a great year, but probably did not make any all start teams, owing to two promotions. The aggressive promotion policy of the Cards makes it hard to qualify for an all star team.

The trigger for this realization may be the departure of the Orioles and Dodgers to Arizona, reducing the teams near Jupiter to scrimmage against. But there may be good reason to drop fall instructs.

Something to bear in mind, and I mean this as a joke, we held instructs last fall and the A level squads declined in 2009. Therefore, it could be argued that the instructs may have caused this decline. (This would not be true, but it does point out that it is easy to overinterpret the fall instructs.)

One big way the Cards have changed is they have built up an 11 team minor league system. I get this number from the two Latin squads, the recent Gulf Coast League team, the six other US teams (JC, Batavia, QC, PB, Spr, Memphis). This adds up to 9 teams. The other two are the 80+ lads in Extended Spring Training during April through early June. EST is the “spring instructs” for guys who are not ready for full season competiton. The Cards have really increased players at EST the past couple of springs.

When we have 80+ guys in house, then we have the internal manpower to run our own scrimmages, without busing players all over Florida.

It could easily be a low Return on Investment to continue the old tradition of fall instructs. We are already teaching young players during spring training, EST, and short season teams, March through August, 6 months. Good for guys to take some time off, go home, get refreshed, work out, and have an off-season.

Minor league success hinges on many factors, not just one, in isolation. It depends on scouting; how much a team invests in bonuses; coaching; conditioning; individual development plans; etc. It does not hinge on just fall instructs, in isolation from many other factors.

Mo and Luhnow are responsible for thinking how to best spend their resources, in a holistic sense. If an “old” model of fall instructs is not productive, maybe they would rather invest in more scouting or bonuses or training at other times. They ought to do what makes sense to them, based on their available choices.

It kind of sounds like those are the only three teams that gave up Fall Instructs, I’m with you Brian,
the more instruction the better.

Interesting to track the all star selections, maybe 2008 was a spike.

The aggressive promotions seemed to backfire this season but I am still excited about the future and what looks to be a steady supply of useful ballplayers.

Down by the Riverside

Sister Sophie is teaching that to guide a stone along a path to enlightenment, one must be prepared to do more than just bark. If our motivation, our need, is only to be recognized by the stones to whom we preach, we will forever be standing in a froth of muddied water, fools gold glistening on our nose and chin. She teaches that to know our true self only through the praise and progress of a stone, we would need to be very patient indeed.
I asked her this recently, “My dearest sage-ette, do you feel pretty, oh so pretty, with golden dust on your chin and nose”. “Father dearest”, barked she, ”God creates and explores this Universe, all with the same grand gesture. Creation defines the self through the reflected beauty of this process. Are we not that creation? Am I not the beauty of this truth? Are my stone disciples unworthy of hearing this truth? If I must lie down among these stones at my ending father, I would have them know the truth of this, so that even after my “Sophie-ness“ is forgotten, I will share in the hope of resurrection that I know lays washed and clean within their crumbling hearts”.
As I continue in this reverie, contemplating such wisdom, I look upon the crystalline water, which now reflects both rock soul and darkening sky. As I watch Sophie, her red white and gold magic still barking out the rhythm of eternity, it suddenly occurs to me, “hey Bonnie, bring me that stick honey”.

(Sophie and Bonnie are my Australian Shepherds)