Just mentioning minor league team won-loss records can often elicit a response from player development types.
“The team records don’t matter,” they say. “It is all about building players’ skills and preparing them for the next level.”
This is especially what is heard when the standings don’t look so hot.
On the other hand, when a system has a good year as did the Cardinals in 2008, those same folks point out the winning baseball being played and take some deserved credit. Such was the case last season when the top six clubs in the St. Louis system all came home with winning records and in aggregate, finished 60 games over .500.
Nothing at all wrong with that, mind you. I believe there is a middle ground where establishing winning habits plays a significant role in complementing individual development.
Focusing on the positive is only natural.
This past week, I read a happy column from the Post-Dispatch’s Jeff Gordon that highlighted the churn that the Memphis Pacific Coast League champions (pictured) endured this season and equated it with having “a real farm system”, instead of having to rely on minor league veterans.
I got the lack of minor league vets but lost him in equating that to system-wide strength.
Minor league win percentage declines from 54% to 49%
Turning over the coin, it is only fair to note the records of these same highest six clubs in the Cardinals system in 2009 returned to a territory comparable to past years prior to 2008 – below .500.
Memphis (Triple-A), Springfield (Double-A), Palm Beach (A-Advanced), Quad Cities (A), Batavia (SS-A) and Johnson City (SS-R) in total lost 16 more regular season games than won for a winning mark of .489.
That is the system’s second-lowest mark in the last five years – the Jeff Luhnow years. Only the 2007 clubs finished worse in aggregate (.481) since the current farm director took over.
| 2009 | 2008 | YTY | ||||||
| Win | Loss | Pct. | Playoffs | Win | Loss | Pct. | Pct. | |
| Memphis | 77 | 67 | 0.535 | yes | 75 | 67 | 0.528 | improve |
| Springfield | 71 | 69 | 0.507 | yes | 76 | 63 | 0.547 | decline |
| Palm Beach | 61 | 77 | 0.442 | no | 75 | 62 | 0.547 | decline |
| Quad Cities | 61 | 78 | 0.439 | no | 68 | 66 | 0.507 | decline |
| Batavia | 37 | 39 | 0.487 | no | 46 | 28 | 0.622 | decline |
| Johnson City | 37 | 30 | 0.552 | no | 36 | 30 | 0.545 | improve |
| Top six | 344 | 360 | 0.489 | 376 | 316 | 0.543 | decline | |
| 2007 | 337 | 364 | 0.481 | |||||
| 2006 | 348 | 349 | 0.499 | |||||
| 2005 | 347 | 358 | 0.492 |
This year’s decline occurred in the middle levels of the system as all four of those clubs dropped in win percentage this season compared to 2008. Of the quartet, only Springfield delivered a winning record in 2009. While they made the Texas League post-season, the S-Cards were swept in the first round.
The Double-A club was the only one of the declining group that reached the playoffs, and that was entirely due to a strong start. During the second half, Springfield tied for last place, though they were only four games out of first. Had the Texas League used full-season standings, Springfield would not have made the post-season.
The other three mid-tier clubs, Palm Beach, Quad Cities and Batavia, not only had the largest year-to-year declines, they also posted the poorest 2009 records.
The two clubs showing year-to-year improvement, Memphis and Johnson City, are organizational bookends representing the highest and lowest rungs, respectively. Before one celebrates too boisterously, it is worth noting that in total, they won just three more regular-season games than in 2008.
It is not all gloomy, as Memphis’ first post-season appearance and first league championship in nine years is noteworthy and deserving of praise as Gordon dished out in generous portions. In addition, the Cardinals clubs are among the youngest, if not the youngest at most every level.
Not loading up the Triple-A club with going-nowhere Quad-A players was a change I fully supported from the start. Still, Memphis was able to supply reinforcements to St. Louis when called upon this season.
While the organization made some high-visibility trades of top prospects this summer, they came from the top of the system. In fact, almost all were sourced from Memphis. Yet because of the sheer number of good players at the upper levels of the organization, replacements were often available from Double-A without having to rush players up before they seemed ready.
When there weren’t ready arms, the Cardinals went outside the organization for what ended up being 2/5 of the Memphis rotation. During the season, they added independent leaguer Oneli Perez and minor league veteran Evan MacLane, a trade acquisition from the Arizona organization.
There didn’t seem to be ready answers for the struggling middle levels of the Cardinals system.
It only stands to reason that when players are called up to Triple-A, Springfield would then require quality reinforcements from Palm Beach and so on down the line. This is how all minor league systems work, or at least should. In-season churn is inevitable and is planned for.
Yet I read that Springfield’s downturn has been attributed by some to the loss of players upward whose productivity could not be replaced. Add to that the fact that the three clubs immediately below Double-A experienced the biggest yearly decline in wins in the system and there seems a hole.
It is also worth noting that the act of adding minor league veterans is usually restricted to Triple-A, and to a lesser extent, Double-A. The lower levels are almost exclusively staffed by home-grown players. Other than A-Advanced all-star outfielder Shane Peterson, part of the Matt Holliday trade with Oakland, the Cardinals traded away no players below Triple-A this season.
I find myself wondering from where the next groups of standout players will come as each set looks to move up in 2010. For example, does the core of returning Springfield players plus the best from Palm Beach equate to a playoff-caliber Double-A team in 2010? Same questions on down the line.
To sustain winning baseball year after year, the pipeline needs to flow without interruption yet the jury remains out on many of the top players from the most recent drafts.
With a strong core of returning players, Memphis should again be competitive in 2010. Beyond that, I am not so sure.
During 4 of the past 5 years, these 6 teams at the top of the ladder have had losing records overall. It meant little during 2005-07 and means little again in 2009.
There has been an emphasis on rapid promotions to the level at which guys struggle. This puts the emphasis on development and hurts the winning percentage.
It is significant Memphis has had back to back winning seasons, after many losing years. This is a healthy indicator. Memphis should be a strong team in 2010 as well.
One way to look at the health of a farm system would be average age per team or years of experience at a given rung.
Another metric is amateurs signed per year, because inflow begets outflow, so its a sign of dynamism.
Another metric is signing bonus expenditure per year. This used to be reported by Baseball America.
Another metric is ML players produced per year. This would be the Cards rookies, plus guys traded like Mortensen, etc.
Another way to view progress is by looking at their progress collectively by signing year group.
This also seems a useful perspective on progress for Latin signees.
Quad Cities, Palm Beach, and Springfield seem a key triad, the core of the system. The more players they can process (promote, demote, or release), the better. My impression is they had an active year of movement and thats a good thing. It may be counter-intuitive to dismiss their winning percentages, but they are not very important.
Here is an odd anecdotal indicator. I liked the way OF Paul Cruz got a chance at Quad Cities early in the season. He did much better than at Johnson City. Then he got released, because not a prospect. He got some playing time, then we made room for others. The same thing happenned with a 2Bman Lilley. Both men turned pro after senior seasons of college, they were able to contribute, but by June, we sign a new year group, so their roster slots were needed. While some might see this as failure, to me it seems like efficient management of people and spreading out opportunities. This can help with signing kids in future years because amateurs can be told that they get some playing time and a chance. If they do real well, they get moved up. The system is dynamic, not sclerotic.
Yes there are many factors but few as absolute as won-loss.
Age is an interesting one to me as there is an unproven implication that youth at higher levels is good or at least can be an explanation for below-average team play.
I recently wrote a detailed article at Scout.com (subscriber only) analyzing the Cardinals’ recent signing bonuses. Of course, with Wagner Mateo’s money back on the books, this year falls behind last.
I will have another post tomorrow looking at another measure that I know you will also wave off, Jumbo.
Another indicator of dynamism. LHP George Brown a 2008 college senior signee began the season at QC. He was ineffective. Instead of just releasing him, the Cards sent him back to EST to work on his game, then promoted him to PB, where he pitched a bit better. Brown got more opportunity, despite having a tough time at QC. Next year is up to him.
There was the Mike Marshall trained lefty experiment at Springfield. We gave him a short look, though other teams would not. There is no downside to a try out and if you do not like the result, say thanks and goodbye.
Gary Daley Jr. after two terrible years in the GCL, ventured back to QC. He had a difficult time as a starting pitcher. The Cards gave up on this role and simplified things by telling him he was a reliever. He got skipped up to Springfield and is going to the AFL (probably with the worst stats of all time). This makes sense because he has ML arm strength. Its up to him to learn a way of applying this gift, successfully. If he cannot become an effective reliever, then we say thanks and goodbye, as with anyone else. We are still trying to help him find his potential.
All progress in development is individual and varies person to person.
IRT to Brian’s comment 2 above, a W-L record at AAA seems a useful metric, provided the team is mostly homegrown. This would indicate that the system is producing enough good ballplayers. Good AAA players could play in the majors (though its another issue as to whether they will get a chance, because there are many more players than slots).
A winning record is nice at lower levels too, but the utmost priority is player development by individual. If this happens to yield a winning record, great, but this is merely a co-incidental byproduct of doing things the right way. Nice, if it happens, but unimportant if it does not. The important thing is doing things the right way: scouting; signing; individual development; trying to get the most out of the most people in the shortest time. If there are 300 guys in the minor league system, they should each have a development plan and set of expectations tailored to their individual situations.
IIRC, in 2006, the Cards signed a minor league free agent to play SS at Quad Cities. A minor league free agent is a discard another system has given up on. The Cards had a minor league free agent playing 3B for Palm Beach. The AA team had quite a few vets who were not prospects but ringers, solely intended to help the W-L record of Springfield. One improvement the Cards have made is not expressed in the W-L record; it is to cease wasting roster slots at QC/PB/SPR on retreads. Instead, the Cards are maximizing roster slots for their own signees. This is healthy for morale, gives more of our signees playing time in pro ball.
Yeah, the fact that Memphis was the youngest AAA team out there and still saw that kind of success is clearly very good news.
I wouldn’t say that the benefits of youth at higher levels is unproven. There shouldn’t be any real dispute nowadays that there are peak ages for development within the professional baseball playing community. If an organization has younger players than its competitors performing admirably at a given level of competition, that organization on average will have players who project to peak at higher levels of play.
http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/affiliates/index.jsp?c_id=stl
The design of the website for the Cards minor league system has been improved.
I looked back at the 2005 Springfield squad. I think retreads included pitchers Randy Leek, Oscar Alvarez, Cook, and old Bill Pulsipher. There was huge Juan Diaz, Papo Bolivar, Jaramillo, Zocolillo, Tyler Minges, Laya. I did not double check, but these guys were probably retreads.
In 2005 at Palm Beach, there was a Rule 5 pitcher Garcia, Chris Russ, Batista. Among position players, there was 21 HR, 130 K retread 3Bman Dryer. Brian Martin previously let go by the Brewers. McQuade.
Looking at the 2006 squad at Quad Cities, the SS retread was Luis Cotto. There was CJ Smith at 1B. Lemanczyk was a Cards signee OF, but spending another year at low A. The pitching staff included Lundgren, an Australian released by the Red Sox.
In general, nowadays, the Cards will selectively fill in a few gaps at Memphis with minor league vets like McLane, Barden, Perez, etc. But they are not consuming roster slots at lower rungs on filler ballplayers. This will hurt their W-L record at these lower levels, but it is in keeping with a more aggressive, costly commitment to scouting and player development.
Lemanczyk is a good illustration. IIRC, he was a college senior, signed in 02. He spent 2003 in the Midwest league, 04 at Palm Beach. However, in 2005, he was returned to low A to spend an entire season. We must have been short of people or we wanted to boost Peoria’s W-L record. Why would a guy with a full season at high A be assigned a step lower and eat up a bunch of at bats at low A during his 3rd full season as a pro? Reason: we must not have had any prospects to give at bats at Peoria. This sort of odd personnel movement would be unlikely to happen now. A guy who turns pro after 4 years of college has to move up quickly or out. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Matt-Lemanczyk.shtml
I double checked, Matt L. spent 4 seasons at an NCAA Division II school, Sacred Heart, in the snow belt (Connecticut). He routinely led the team in at bats so probably batted leadoff and stole bases. On the plus side for scouts, his father was a ML pitcher, so he came out of a baseball family. On the minus side, its hard to project to the majors as a light hitting right swinging CF and the Cards now are biased to draft from the SunBelt at high rounds, because the level of play at Sacred Heart will not be as challenging.
Matt continued to steal bases in pro ball, 2003-5. He had a strong year at Peoria in 05, 48 steals, 9 homers, but then he retired or was released, because while he was running fast, he was going nowhere fast in turns of climbing the ladder. The Cards wasted a roster slot with him in 2005, maybe because they did not have anyone else to play.
I noted the lower reliance on minor league veterans. However that does not explain the decline in record at most levels across the system in 2009 vs. 2008.
The Cards re-started a team in the Venezuelan summer league in 2006. They also added a team in the Gulf Coast League in 2007, after three decades of not having a rookie league team in the US aimed at signees out of high schools. This expansion will have hurt winning percentages, because they had to fill more squads.
Its not easy finding the W-L records of the Venezuelan and Dominican farm teams in past years. For the DSL, the Cards squad had a .462 winning percentage in 2007. This fell to .409 in 2008. It soared to .630 in 2009. Should we view the 2009 winning record as encouraging? Maybe, maybe not. It might be the 2009 team was older and more experienced. If this was not so, maybe its a good sign. Its hard to say, since W-L records are team metrics and may not reflect on the potential of the best individual raw talent.
For anecodotal illustration, one of the more promising Latin signings is Eduardo Sanchez. He did not rack up strong stats in the Venezuelan and Gulf Coast leagues, IIRC, but has enjoyed more success at Quad Cities and Springfield.
The Gulf Coast League team was .444 in 2007. This fell to .309 in 2008. And bounced back up to .446 in 2009.
Venezuela had a .493 winning record in 2009. Could not find earlier years.
It would be possible to say the GCL and Dominican teams improved in 2009, in terms of winning percentages, as did Johnson City. So we could say that some of the bottom rungs improved in 2009 and spin an encouraging story. If the Cards have now adopted a corporate policy of not stashing overage players so as to boost W-L records, winning percentages at the lowest rungs may be meaningful.
I have the GCL., DSL and VSL records from past years, but did not include them. The 60-games over .500 for the top six clubs was the benchmark widely touted by the Cardinals organization last fall as an indication of system success. I assume they drew the line at GCL because that club had a bad 2008, but I don’t know that for sure.
Anyway, I didn’t make up the 60-game point myself. I simply reused their own measurement to compare 2009. I will include all nine levels in my player-based comparison in part two tomorrow.
Another way to analyze this question is to wonder why the core trio of QC, PB, and AA teams did not enjoy more success in 2009? What are the contributing factors? Two feeder teams JC and Batavia were strong in 08. What are some diagnostic reasons why more success did not rise with the players from these squads?
Some toolsy but inexperienced players have not found it easy at higher rungs, so far. For instance, Pham at PB, Niko Vasquez, Jon Edwards at QC.
Some college draftees have not set pro ball on fire: Curtis struggled at PB, Tom Eager could pitch well last year for Batavia, but had a blah year as a set up guy at PB.
Some Latin players can experience success at low rungs, but may not have the physical tools to harness into impact players. This may be why the Cards pursued Wagner Mateo and last year Roberto De La Cruz. Richard Castillo, Parejo, Bolivar, Morales, Ryde Rodriguez, its hard to know right now how high some can rise. Age is not a tool.
The Cards can sign college seniors who can do well in rookie ball, but do not have a lot of upside for the years ahead. (Isa Garcia, like Juan Lucena, led the Appie League in hitting, but ended at AA. Buckman was another senior who ended at PB. ) And last summer, seniors Brett Lilley and Colt Sedbrook hit well in rookie leagues, but this kind of hitting may not continue at high levels.
Guys will not meet the expectations of the team in terms of conduct. We released bonus baby Herron. Maiques may have encountered off-field problems that impacted his play, so he is gone.
There were injuries to pitchers at AA. This meant pitchers had to be called up from Palm Beach, hurting PBs record.
The Cards tend to be well organized in getting draftees signed, at a reasonable bonus. This can help their rookie league teams. But when you get into full season teams at the A level, you may not have as many premium talents in your stable.
That is where my thinking has been heading, too.
The Cards are probably aware of the issue. When they found Shelby Miller available at 19, they went over slot. Though there was an unhappy ending, they outbid everybody for Mateo.
Now they have expanded the system, and stocked it with homegrown players and cleaned out aging ringers and retreads, they need to add more high ceiling talents. Some may be expensive, but its a price that has to be paid.
AB R H RBI TB BB K AVG OBP SLG
S. Schumaker, 2B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .305 .364 .397
C. Rasmus, CF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .256 .308 .419
A. Pujols, 1B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .331 .447 .675
M. Holliday, LF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .354 .411 .623
R. Ankiel, RF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .235 .287 .395
Y. Molina, C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .290 .364 .381
J. Thurston, 3B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .232 .322 .340
B. Ryan, SS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .289 .337 .392
A. Wainwright, P
How do you like them apples. I think you will see DeRosa in the outfield tomorrow. Fresse at Third….Lugo at second. Ankiel is a bomb sitting there. Lets hope he goes off at the right time.
The old 3 lefties when they least expect it, bench the only guy who brought his bat last night , .235 hitting K machine in heart of lineup trick.
What a game. Wainwright just won his Cy Young. 130 pitches scares me about as much as it bothers me. Allot…………. But I love a hero, and we have one.
Tony has his chance to run Freese and the boys out tomorrow. He should sit Rick and Colby. I’m thinking he may as well get DeRosa some work in the outfield. Lugo at second.
Colorado will be tight tomorrow. Hopefully Lohse is effective and the offense stresses their pitching some. We’re flirting with going to Philly in a short series if we win and allow Atlanta to catch these guys. We need a hot streak and send Philly to La and then to our house.
There was an attempt at taking a few pitches today. We can do better.
Jumbo, don’t get mad friend. Learn, where knowing can aid appreciation and understanding of the game.
The old reserve catcher mashes game winning title clincher trick. My favorite. Some stand-up pitching this series.
Congratulations BB, Brian, Jumbo, Ax, Nut, CC the skeptic. You guys did contribute. We are all just butterfly sneezes on some level, but on a hot day, you take what moisture you can find. Oh yea, and you Cardinals.
Why is it I get the feeling that Jumbo is a member of the Cardinal organization at some level. Obviously you’re expertise on our farm system is second to none. Extremely impression, comprehensive analysis. IMO bang on too.
Brian I think the difference in the records has to do with the vast amount of injuries and the excessive player movement which came along with it. Add to that, the agreesive promotions that didn’t always work out (i.e. Pete Kozma) and you have a receipe for instability on all the rosters where players were constantly coming and going. It’s like everyone needed a score card just to know who their team-mates were on a week-to-week basis.
Another factor is that we have 7 state-side farm teams where most franchises have only 6, which means our talent base is spread a little thinner. On the upside is that the players get more field time and can develop quicker. THE GCL team as you know was added to basically assimilate the latino players from the two academies. Unfortunately we robbed them blind so we could fill up the Florida roster and the players were way to young and raw. Most have not done well. The VSL and DSL teams finally recovered this past year with older players and therefore gave a better showing. Older and more refined players (especially the pitchers) will be brought up to Jupiter next spring and I expect an improvement in that teams record.
It also seemed to me that the older players were being pushed up to levels more appropriate for their ages to see if they could keep up to their peers. (How else do you explain Gary Daley being promoted 2 levels with his atrocious ERA in QC?) Which I feel is a good policy in the long run since a 23 year old hitting .300 in JC is no strong indication if he’s a prospect or not.
I whole-heartedly concur that the win/loss is not a proper indication of our minor leagues success. The bottom line is; how many legitimate prospects can we produce. The one weakness we do have is the dearth of high end talent.
That was a fine game to watch last night, wasn’t it? Wainwright gets my imaginary Cy Young vote. If he can keep this up in the postseason, watch out.
Thurston needs to never man third base for the Cardinals again.
Everybody makes errors Nut. Thats one of the most common for a 3rd baseman moving on that line. Its like shooting a floating jump shot from the 3 point line. Tough error, he didn’t make any more…………………plus he got pulled after a reasonable wait.
Goint back to the origin of the thread relating to the purpose of the farm system….
This year the farm system provided Rasmus, Motte, and Hawksworth to the Cards. Worrell and Gregerson provided a year of T. Greene. Perez and Todd brought a half season of DeRosa. Wallace, Mortensen, and Peterson went for a half season of Holliday. That would be 10 players out of the farm system, for promotions or trades. That is a lot of output, from just one season,, twice the company goal.
Some guys took positive strides. Additon pitched well at AA as did Lynn, Hearne, Dickson. Tyler Greene did well at Memphis, as did Craig, Jay, Hoffpauir, and Freese. Hawksworth was forgotten a year ago, but found life in a setup role. Peterson did well before traded. Tyler Henley did well. Cutler and Smith hit at the A level.
“I noted the lower reliance on minor league veterans. However that does not explain the decline in record at most levels across the system in 2009 vs. 2008.”
Well, I think we were slightly younger in 2009 than 2008. The minor league veterans usually are at teh AAA or sometimes AA level but there use as a cascading affect. Guys who aren´t promoted due to using the minor league veterans would seem likely to do better at a lower level.
I think even the Cards would admit (off the record) that their minor league system did not perform this year as well as last year and was full of dissapointments. If you are waiting for a press release from them to say that, don´t hold your breath.
They don’t need a press release, Carioca. I handled it for them this year.
I think yours is the first post other than mine that actually accepts this was a down season.
More often than I would like to admit, I start a post after reading an article elsewhere that has just a little too much sunshine for my tastes. Such was the case here.
I think its useful to look diagnostically at reasons for lower winning percentages. The topic can be more defined.
Owing to injuries to Mura and Fiske, Kulik had to step up and pitch at AA, though a normal development would have left him at PB. Khalil’s problems bumped Kozma up to AA where he did not hit a lot. Premature promotions hit the win loss percentages for multiple clubs.
Fans can have higher expectations than may be apt. It can be a big step between Johnson City and the Quad Cities for a player from high school. Niko Vasquez hit well at Johnson City, but struggled in 2009. People can forget Darryl Jones spent 2 seasons at JC and then struggled his first year at QC. Is Niko disappointing or are fans impatient? Quite a few guys struggled to climb to the Quad Cities rung. They were not quite ready yet to excel there. These include: Jon Edwards, Luis de la Cruz, Ryde Rodriguez, Parejo, Ingram. They may do better in 2010.
Pham did what should be expected at PB, given he struggled at QC and got promoted anyway. He ought to repeat PB in 2010. Last winter fans were down on Hoffpauir; this year, Hoffpauir did well at Memphis. Repeating a level can help.
Samuel still had control problems at AA. Riefer did not excel as the PB closer. Salas had an injury and lost most of the season, after a big year at AA last year. Bryan Anderson had a blah year, capped by injury. Darryl Jones had a blah year complicated by an injury. Jose Martinez had a lost season. Since we do not hire retreads anymore, we promote guys like Derba and Sedbrook to AA, though they are not ready to contribute at that level with the bat. Zawacki had an injury. Herron and Maiques got fired, Garceau and Hooker suspended. If Freese had not been hurt, we might still have Perez and Todd. Joe Mather had a lost year not owing to lack of talent, but the difficulty of rebounding from a hamate injury.
There was also good news. UDFA Parise rose to be Memphis closer. Peterson, Smith, Cutler, Luna hit at the A level, Henley and Descalso impressed at AA. Ottavino had a good year, relative to last year; he went up a level and turned the corner. Additon showed he was more than a one year wonder. Wallace, Todd, Peterson moved up fast before traded.
WC, Thurston has a .936 fielding percentage at third base this season. He’s a second baseman playing out of position at the hot corner.
Jumbo, without comparable 2008 data, while the above detail is informative, it may or may not explain the teams’ results between seasons. There were aggressive promotions and injuries in 2008, too. I just don’t have a good way to measure or compare them year-to-year. The most recent season is freshest in everyone’s memories.
Not disagreeing with you Nutlaw, but noting that Thurston did make a nice play from second base today.
Wow!!!!!!!!!!!! I have nothing to offer on this one. Lohse had moments. I hope some element of humility is salvaged.
Seven total bases, 12 K’s. Having to send up K. Greene or Ankiel when it matters is pathetic. DelaRosa was mentioned in Brian’s ‘Mediocre Pitchers Dominate Cards’ piece back in July. I’m sure everyone assumed that would be changing.
Can anyone explain the T Greene in CF thing, and he was taken out for no reason after a few innings. Strange. Hopefully it wasn’t part of that deep psychodrama thing.
There was no betting line on this game for obvious reasons BB. Tony was trying be flippant when Holiday couldn’t play. All of the lolly gaging around can’t disguise some the Cardinals deeper problems. I’m still loving the Bernie story about Tony and Mo kissing in a tree. Both must have agreed that it fulfilled their evolving posture. All is harmonious in La la land. Tony will never vent using the Dave emergency release valve. He promises. No need. Were all pulling together. Now.
Brian, it’s not that we don’t accept it was a down year. Compared to 2008 it was. It’s just that there were valid reasons for it, which Jumbo very adeptly explained and I added a little on to. perhaps it is a matter of recent memory, but quite frankly I can’t remember this type of player movement and some of it in bunches.
In ’08 Mo decided in the end to get off the pot, so the talent backed up, from AAA right on back through the system, with no where to go. This year’s fan input (either money or complaints, whichever) was like an ex-lax enema causing Mo to spew AAA talent, which broke up the log jam, and the usual flow we have seen year to year was restored. This expains why 09 was a normal year in the minors and 08 was not.
Axion, I think Brian is looking for a simple metric with significance. Not sure that is going to emerge.
The highest potential guy in the system is probably Miller, a kid with years of climb ahead. The Cards worked for years to land an uber prospect from the Dominican and budgeted all money for him. It was a pyrhhic victory. They won the bidding, amazing, only to learn of the eye problem. They may have been shut out this summer on other premium Latin signings.
When the Cards landed Ankiel and Drew in 1997/98, it owed to paying over slot bonuses, for advanced talents. Sometimes you have to pay for top talent.
The drafts of 2005-09 seem good as a generality. Its not clear they need to change course in a drastic way. But they should compare their talent acquistion track record against other teams and learn from the successes of others.
I didn´t percieve more player movement this year than last. The pushing of players from last year may have only caught up with them this year. I also think they did invested more time in development this year (especially pitchers) that costs them a lot of wins (Daley, Marquis, Reifer, Samuel, Kozma. Curtis, Ryde Rodriguez, and even Ottavino.) There may have been a few more injuries this year also. But no matter what, Brian is on point with the idea that you can´t change the metric from year to year after the fact and have credibility.
Claiming there were the same number of player movements and injuries last year is an assumption. It could be right, it could be wrong.
Its convenient to assume there are the same number of trades, injuries, and promotions every year, so they have zero impact on W-L results. We like the clarity of a number. To possess a number imparts confidence. Is it a useful number? Why ask? The Cards used it last year.
I did not draw conclusions about player movements and injuries because there isn’t hard YTY data to compare either. Others brought them up in an attempt to try to rationalize the specific W-L data presented, but without comparable yearly movement and injury numbers, it is a soft argument either way. For every anecdote, there is an equal and opposite anecdote.
I now have the raw information of player movements and DL stints across the entire system from 2009, but it is not available from past years to the best of my knowledge. Over the winter, I will distill it down to DL days and number of movements up and down and hopefully will build a base of additional information beyond W-L and all-star berths against which to compare 2010.
For 2009, I am going with what I can firmly stand behind.
The Cards probably do periodic management reviews of the minor league system, for Mo and ownership. W-L records should be a metric, but I expect the team would want to go into more diagnostic detail.
If its largely a homegrown system, then scouting and signings (and extra high draft picks) are the primary means to influence results. In 2005/6, we had extra draft picks (IIRC, Rasmus, McCormick, Herron, Wilson, Perez, Furnish, Hamilton). We had two in 07 (Mortensen, Todd), one in o8 (Lynn), no extra picks in 09. And with the loss of Wagner, no premium Latin signings.