90 percent of Mark DeRosa’s home runs with the St. Louis Cardinals have come with the bases empty.
St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Mark DeRosa did not have a Three Dog Night on Monday in Houston, though he did have a three extra-base hit night. Just as with seven of his previous eight homers with the club, both of DeRosa’s Monday Minute Maid home run shots were struck with the bases empty.
It marked the end of a long, dry spell for Mark. After cranking eight home runs in his first two weeks with the club, the 34-year-old’s long-ball bat went silent for six weeks as he continues to deal with a torn tendon sheath in his wrist. DeRosa’s Monday performance included his first home runs of any kind since August 7.
With nine of his ten Cardinals home runs having been solo shots, or 90 percent, let’s put that inauspicious rate into perspective.
DeRosa’s first five and most recent four Cardinals home runs were of the bases-empty variety. In between, his initial streak was broken when he connected for a three-run blast against the Dodgers at Busch Stadium on July 28. As recently as last season, Albert Pujols had a nine home run streak of solo shots, from April 27 through May 9.
Over his career prior to joining St. Louis, DeRosa hit 82 home runs, of which 44 were with the bases empty. That works out to 53.7 percent, a far stretch from his 90 percent mark through his initial 205 at-bats with the Cardinals. As a team, 64.1 percent of the home runs hit by the 2009 Cards to date have been solo shots.
The table that follows lists the eight Cardinals with at least five home runs in 2009. Ten other players have gone deep this season. In addition to total home runs, also listed are solo home runs, percentage of home runs that were solo, number at-bats as well as number of at-bats between any home runs and solo shots. Players are listed in order of number of solo home runs hit.
| 2009 Cardinals | Total HRs | Solo HRs | % HRs Solo | At-Bats | AB/HR | AB/Solo HR |
| Albert Pujols | 47 | 30 | 63.8% | 526 | 11.2 | 17.5 |
| Rick Ankiel | 11 | 9 | 81.8% | 351 | 31.9 | 39.0 |
| Mark DeRosa | 10 | 9 | 90.0% | 205 | 20.5 | 22.8 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 20 | 8 | 40.0% | 454 | 22.7 | 56.8 |
| Colby Rasmus | 15 | 7 | 46.7% | 434 | 28.9 | 62.0 |
| Matt Holliday | 13 | 7 | 53.8% | 201 | 15.5 | 28.7 |
| Khalil Greene | 6 | 5 | 83.3% | 166 | 27.7 | 33.2 |
| Yadier Molina | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | 461 | 92.2 | 92.2 |
| Ten others | 26 | 18 | 69.2% | 2277 | 87.6 | 126.5 |
| Team | 153 | 98 | 64.1% | 5075 | 33.2 | 51.8 |
Among 2009 Cardinals with at least five homers, Yadier Molina actually trumps DeRosa for frequency of bases-empty homers. All five of the catcher’s long balls were of that type. DeRosa’s 90 percent comes in second on the team. Pujols’ rate of solo shots, 63.8 percent, helps drive the team mark of 64.1 mentioned previously.
Not surprisingly, Pujols hits generic home runs most frequently, with one departing the field of play each 11.2 at-bats. DeRosa is third at 20.5, also trailing Matt Holliday at 15.5.
But even in bases empty home runs, Pujols collects them more often than DeRosa. Albert’s rate of one solo shot per 17.5 at-bats trumps DeRosa’s second-highest rate on the team of one per every 22.8 at-bats.
Of course, that could change if DeRosa is entering another hot streak like he had from July 21 through August 7, when his first eight left the yard.
From a historical perspective, since 1954, DeRosa ranks in a tie for third in highest percentage of solo home runs among Cardinals with at least ten homers in a season. Using that criterion, only ten players had over 75% of their home runs as solo shots during any season over those 55 years.
Hall of Famer Lou Brock is the leader. In the 1964 World Series-winning regular season, Brock hit 13 of his 14 long balls with the bases empty for a 92.9 percent solo rate.
No doubt Cardinals fans would be delighted with similar results from both DeRosa and his 2009 club.
Highest percentage of solo home runs, ten or more homers, season, Cardinals (1954-2009)
| Rank | Hitter | Year | Total HRs | Solo HRs | Solo HR % |
| 1 | Lou Brock | 1964 | 14 | 13 | 92.9% |
| 2 | Edgar Renteria | 1999 | 11 | 10 | 90.9% |
| T3 | Orlando Cepeda | 1966 | 10 | 9 | 90.0% |
| T3 | Mark DeRosa | 2009 | 10 | 9 | 90.0% |
| T5 | Curt Flood | 1958 | 11 | 9 | 81.8% |
| T5 | Todd Zeile | 1991 | 11 | 9 | 81.8% |
| 7 | Ray Lankford | 2000 | 26 | 21 | 80.8% |
| T8 | Ken Boyer | 1957 | 19 | 15 | 78.9% |
| T8 | Reggie Smith | 1975 | 19 | 15 | 78.9% |
| 10 | Bernard Gilkey | 1995 | 17 | 13 | 76.5% |
Thanks to Tom Orf for supplying the base stats used above.
Thanks for a great article Brian and Tom, including three dog night allusions.
The 09 frequency for solo homers is 64.1% and Pujols is par for the course at 63.8%.
Ludwick, Rasmus, and Holliday are doing better at hitting homers with men on base. Since they are in the 4th or 5th slots in the lineup, they have baserunners and a duty to drive some in.
Brock hit leadoff, disadvantaging in terms of baserunners. Not sure about Flood in 58. Cepeda had a high 90 percent solo homer season in 66. Langford’s homers in 2000 did not plate many RBIs. The Cards unfairly mounded expectations onto Zeile early in his ML career.
If DeRosa’s career solo HR percentage is 53 percent, 2009 is providing an outlier by chance from his norm.
I wonder what the percentage of solo HRs are, across MLB as a whole? How do the Cards with 64.1% in 2009 compare to other teams?
Its just that DeRosa would single to enable Yadier to collect his first HR with a man on base this year.
Could the Astros have played worse for Cecil Cooper than they are doing for Dave Clark?
Chuck, Cory and Danny say you are welcome…
It is ironic that Molina dropped to 83.3 percent within hours of my posting the above, not to mention as you say that it was “caused” by DeRosa. Funny.
It would be impossible to prove, but Yadier may have heard about this article and got fired up to match Khalil.
To top it off, prior to last night, Yadi’s most recent home run was on June 17, over three months ago. Coincidence or karma?
I still think he got tipped about the Pags call up. Yadi is one of those guys that needs motivation.
I was really surprised when the P-D left Pags off their projected call-up list. His very presence allows TLR to safely rest Molina and get LaRue sharp for the post-season in case he is needed. The team does the same basic thing every playoff year and it makes all the sense in the world. I certainly expected it.
Brian, that’s because it hadn’t been talked about much on this blog. PD tends to run Cards stories after you and your veteran bloggers have been chewing on it for a while. Coincidence I’m sure, but you guys are good predictors of hot topics.
True that my September call-up predictions were in an insider article on the main The Cardinal Nation site on Scout.com. I think everyone tends to try to assess what is on readers minds or what should be. The P-D is often first in many areas, which is expected due to their size and coverage. I wasn’t complaining about them at all as they are among the very top MLB-city papers in terms of team reporting. They also work under different time and space pressures and can be a bit sensitive at times about being corrected or disagreed with even when done in a professional manner. No one can be everywhere and their readers generally care less about the minors, I would assume.
The absents of Craig is about something. I don’t think its travel expenses. Just a thought for everyone. What does Craig’s presents upset? What delicate balance might a few Hr’s disturbed?
It tells me Mo is somewhere that he thinks is important. Thats either discouraging, or encouraging, depending on you outlook.
Albert’s hands are stating to float forward again. Even in the picture on the paper website of his single up the middle, he has almost completely pulled off that ball. This tendency has to be caused by pains or stiffness. Its to easily spotted to be something out of his control. I hope.
WC, I am apparently among the few that never projected Craig would be called up. By the time the call-ups report, there will be just nine games remaining. All the guys called up save Pags, a special case as the third catcher, have been up before. That is not a coincidence. This isn’t the time to be showing new guys which way is up. It is time to get ready for the post-season. The only reason Pags is there is to help Yadi and LaRue get ready.
The call-ups will be lucky to get a half-dozen at-bats or more than a couple innings each before heading home. Craig can show up in the spring and compete for a job then. It probably isn’t any more dastardly than that. I sometimes wonder if your half-empty glass is approaching being completely empty.
Craig’s avg and OPS against lefties would seem just the thing. Maybe Tony wants to continue the Schu in outfield against lefties thing to see if it works out, the two extra infielders would facilitate that. Even so a bat off the bench against lefties would seem called for. Would be interesting to hear TonyMo explain why they don’t think so.
Craig’s average and OPS were put up in Triple-A. He is an untested MLB player and will not get enough time to earn a spot in the post-season anyway. For Craig to be on the DS roster, another OF would have to be left off. There can only be 25 guys chosen. If the Cards thought Craig had a chance to be part of the post-season equation, he would have been up long ago.
I am not down on Craig in any way. I just never thought he was a part of the October plan. If any one of the callups make the roster, I think it will be Freese, who in addition to also being able to hit with power from the right side and is a better defender, has the MLB experience that Craig lacks.
TLR doesn’t have to explain anything to me. If it came to that, I would take Freese over Craig, too.
(Edit: This is a lot of gnashing of teeth over what will likely amount to almost nothing. As I pointed out in another thread when Jumbo used John Gall in making the 2005 post-season roster as an example, I countered by reminding him that Gall had a whopping total of one AB in the first round and none in the second. If the Cards have to rely on any 25th-man in the playoffs, they will be in big trouble. Even Tom Lawless couldn’t save the 1987 Cards!)
All true enough Brian. I don’t think the org envisioned heading into post season with such a woeful bench, especially as to pop. With Glaus absent and Greene and Ankiel as they are there is just no threat at all off the bench. I admit Freese would be the better choice for a bat. I’m betting Schu gets more reps in the outfield, especially if there are any lefties coming up.
Walters got spanked pretty good. Its getting to be sink or swim time for him I would think.
I agree the bench is weaker in the power department than anyone would like. That could be most exposed if the Cards make it to the World Series where the Dodgers have Jim Thome and Rockies have Jason Giambi ready to DH in the AL park. No telling who the Cards would use. But first things first…
Nothing would be better than seeing the Yankees get wacked by Cards DH Joltin Joe Thursten. I wouldn’t put it past him…..or Tony.
ts difficult to see how you arrived at an adversarial posture over my comment Brian. I trust Mo and Tony sat down and had a meeting about the topic. You both made some good points on this. That is stimulating me to look a bit closer.
When I think of call ups, I think of it being a reward for a good season. There is nothing promised. A uniform, a locker, the pine, comradeships, living the life with maybe an at bat in a blowout. Since its that easy, and I’m apparently spilling liquids all over, lets pour a little.
Albert……… who might want him to get every at bat possible, limping around not being a factor?
Albert? Tony? Mo?
Ankiel…….. Rick has all but folded. Any extra competition for a pinch hit could?
Mo…….ruin a low ball ball bid attempt.
Tony……. break his heart to see anymore fan bias develop.
Ludwick… Ryan is sinking so quick that it scary.
Tony…… When the playoffs start, I’m playing to win. If I have to put DeRosa in right
and Shu in center against a lefty, by god I will.
Mo……. Must keep Rasmus viable, we don’t need a couple of dongs by Craig to
unsettle things.
Greene……. This guy is gone in more ways than one………why milk the humanitarian angle any
longer.
Mo………….. I’ve got to start decorating some eggs. Best to use my imagination again instead of t
the frying pan probably.
La Rue…….. I don’t get any playing time as it is. Oh! what will I be excepting next year for a
salary.
Motte……… Lets see………Colorado…La…Phills…..Yankees. Right!!!!!!!!!!!! Mow um down.
Freese…… These guys are ripe for the picking Hell I can hit a sac fly coach.!!!!
You know, bb, I honestly thought about typing Thurston as the DH, but I couldn’t do it. You obviously are more gutsy than I.
WC, no adversarial tone intended. I just enjoy debating with others and you offered up a point to tee off on. I pass on the vast majority of your juicy subplots offered. Probably better that way…
For those interested, I posted a subscription-only article at Scout.com that recaps how my early-mid August predictions for September call-ups came out. I think six of nine is pretty good, with the three others having good reasons for being excluded.
When all is said and done, LA signed Jim Tome……….. just force an important issue. What are you going to do tactically against good pitching. K Greene is just a subject that MO doesn’t want to come up again. I would guess that Freese is going to be the DH in the end. If that is true, why carry KGreene. We need some viable players against good teams. Carp and Waino will not carry you by themselves against Colorado. Watch.
Lohse is a fly ball pitcher at this point. They aim to know what that means at altitude I think. Carp and Wanio will never have to pitch there, but Lohse might in a 5 game or 7 game scenario…………………….. I’m going to be curious to see what Smoltz brings tonight. They would be foolish to overwork him regardless of any game situation.
Since the point of the whole excersize is getting to the WS, the lack of a DH, or a reasonable facsimile even, is a legitimate topic of inquiry. Tony would respond very abruptly saying he’s focused on now, first things first, etc., as if planning ahead had no place in baseball so niether the fans nor media have any business asking. It would be unseemly to show up without one. As if we hadn’t expected the invite so we didn’t rent the tux.
Good one BB. I’m watching Yankee/Angels………… Yankees just put out a pinch runner who takes the longest lead I’ve seen in 20 yrs………….. they can’t get him, even with the pitch out. Thats a nice bench weapon. We don’t need another catcher. We barely use two as it is. Oh yeah, we might need to have an emergency back up if Yadi plays first………or we pinch hit LaRue…………..Lord save me.
Freese´s hot LAst few weeks and playoffs coupled with Craig´s injury tiltled the scale towards him for the RH ph spot – I think it was Craig´s prior to that.
I think Kinney´s last few weeks also edged him ahead or Ring. We may regret that though if there is an injury to a LH pitcher down the road.
In all fairness. Ankiel, did make it to 2/0 before he stuck out. Thats our bench?
In reply to Brian’s comment 4, he and I do not fully agree about the implication of Gall’s presence on a post season roster. Brian says he only got one at bat, so he did not matter. This may be true, but my additional point is Gall was added to the post-season roster after spending most of that season at AAA. The reason is because the Cards did not have a deep bench in 2005 and had use for Gall in the limited role of pinch-hitter. This illustrates that we will juggle the post-season roster for even the smallest of potential advantages, including promoting a AAA player to be an seldom used pinch-hitter. It is not unprecedented.
Pagnozzi’s call up is not unexpected. All teams add a 3rd catcher for September.
Freese, Kinney, and Tyler Greene were up earlier in the season. This means something in TLR’s mind. They were part of the 2009 effort and know the guys in the locker room, so he is more open to their return. Freese and Greene are ML ready players, at least with the bat. They have no more need for AAA education. Kinney is near 30 years old. TLR regards them as tough enough for post-season, as Kinney already demonstrated in 06.
So why was Craig not elevated? He has been injured and is not necessarily recovered in full. He plays LF or 1B, where we already have Holliday and Pujols, so Craig could only be a pinch-hitter, like Gall in 05. But we do not need another right-swinging pinch-hitter, already having Glaus (or Freese or T Greene) and K. Greene.
And, hypothetically, what if the Cards gave Craig a couple of at bats and he popped a HR? This could create a public relations headache. Some eager fans could sob Craig should be on the post-season roster over Ankiel. The Cards do not want to disrespect Ankiel by bringing up Craig. Ankiel swings left, has 2 HRs as a pinch-hitter, and can backup all three OF positions, so he is suitable for the playoff roster. This season could be Ankiel’s final one in St Louis and if it proves to be, we want to treat him with respect on his way out. No Allen Craig.
Tony quote:
“How are you going to use him?” the manager asked, rhetorically this afternoon. “That was a problem. We already have Khalil (Greene). Now we have David (Freese). Putting him on the roster when you don’t need him doesn’t make sense. It would be a nice gesture for him. He had a hell of a year. But what would that give us? Sixteen (position players)? That’s just a lot of players.”
I rest my case. In a blowout, he just might get luck and pop one, drawing more criticism of KG and RA.
It would be a nice gesture??????????
Westie, Tony’s quote fits very nicely with my interpretations above. Craig could crowd and muddy the picture, so its best to keep him out of the way this year. The team has to give thought to fan management, not just player management. Many fans know little of Freese or T Greene, nor do they understand the importance of defense, so they tend to get excited about a new toy, a guy they have never seen before and who has good offensive stats, Craig. The team does not need some fans lobbying for Craig, when we have Lugo, K. Greene, Ankiel, Freese, and Thurston ahead of him, for valid reasons. To promote Craig would only be a gesture to salute Craig’s 09 AAA season, because there is no room for him on a post-season roster.
Your comments are very “practical” jumbo. I know enough about this game to recognize a loser on the horizon. We will see pitching. It will shut this thing down in a hurry. Rick Ankiel is done. There isn’t even a fantasy scenario that brings him back from that distant shore that he inhabits. K Greene is looking at a no win scenario for a career. Colby is vulnerable to any reasonable strike zone tactics. The teams that are waiting are better than us. The front line pitching won’t save incompetence. Smoltz was good last night, and he earned a loss.
I would much rather look ahead with optimism. Albert last night looked to be right on a couple of pitches. He pulled off so hard, he barely made contact on the end of the bat. He is drifting in and out and is either hurt, or unaware of his difficulties. That is not a good sign. The Phillies have problems, but they know the value of home field in the second round. The Dodgers have a cake walk schedule. Colorado has to play hard to stay abreast. We should be working on fundamentals……….. we aren’t, and there is no pressure to do it. I hope that cold air doesn’t land on the aces in mile high.
The ESPN Sportscenter capsule on last night’s game focused 100% on the Cards many missed scoring ops, inability to get the clutch hit time and again, and said the Card “still can’t score runs”. Somebody needs to tell them they have it all wrong, there’s no problem and stop listening to short sighted fair weather fans and bandwagoners.
Westie, I agree that I dont have a lot of optimism about the post season, unless Pujols and DeRosa can lift their games.
Ankiel is largely irrelevant. TLR has moved him to part-time. He has been effective as a pinch-hitter and may continue to be, so he seems fine for the roster. Rasmus is vulnerable, but he is a rookie and that is what you are going to get out of him. It is what it is.
BB, TLR’s job is not to be negative or cry. His job is to make lemonade out of lemons. This is why he says there is no problem and is going to go full steam ahead. What do you want the CArds, just concede and not show up for the playoffs? That would not make sense. The right thing to do is to go play a hard 9 and see where you end up.
Nothing good comes from lack of hustle. On the down side, it is infectious (cliche I know, but true). It also affects team chemistry and cohesiveness by creating two classes of players, those from whom hustle is expected and demanded and those from whom it is not. It also has a negative effect on perception of effort, and team character. If hustle is practiced by some but not all, then it is not percieved to be a characteristic of the team. Tony would not be able to say that he demands hustle. If they win, no harm no foul, but if not, then it will be impossible to defend.