Rather than stop with my earlier report, “Cardinals and September not made for one another”, I decided to dig a bit deeper. I wondered if the Cardinals post-season status during the final month could have affected their late-season sense of urgency and therefore, their September results.
While we cannot answer that with certainly, we can compare the standings.
The table below notes the Cardinals’ relative position in the standings, both as the month of September began as well as when it ended each season. I noted either the size of their lead or how far the Cardinals were behind in terms of number of games in the division as the month started and closed. A summary of whether the team gained or lost ground in the final month is offered followed by the post-season result.
Cardinals standings September 1 vs. October 1, 1996-2009
| Sept. | 1-Sep | 1-Sep | 1-Oct | 1-Oct | Sep-Oct | Oct . | |
| Year | Pct. | lead | deficit | lead | deficit | standings | Result |
| 2009 | 0.533 | 10.5 | TBD | TBD | TBD | ||
| 2008 | 0.480 | 11 | 11.5 | lost | |||
| 2007 | 0.419 | 2 | 7 | lost | |||
| 2006 | 0.429 | 5 | 1.5 | lost | WS win | ||
| 2005 | 0.500 | 14 | 11 | lost | CS loss | ||
| 2004 | 0.571 | 15.5 | 14 | lost | WS loss | ||
| 2003 | 0.500 | 1 | 3 | lost | |||
| 2003-2009 | 0.486 | ||||||
| 2002 | 0.778 | 4 | 13 | gained | CS loss | ||
| 2001 | 0.773 | 6 | 1 | gained | DS loss | ||
| 2000 | 0.679 | 8 | 9 | gained | CS loss | ||
| 1999 | 0.400 | 14.5 | 20.5 | lost | |||
| 1998 | 0.720 | 21.5 | 19 | gained | |||
| 1997 | 0.385 | 7 | 11 | lost | |||
| 1996 | 0.654 | 2.5 | 6 | gained | CS loss | ||
| 1996-2002 | 0.626 |
Observation #7: La Russa’s early teams usually gained ground during the final month.
The data shows that in five of the seven early years (1996-2002), the Cardinals improved their position in the standings, either increasing their lead (twice), taking over the lead (once) or closing the gap between them and the first-place club (twice). Only twice in those seven years did the Cardinals lose ground in September.
Observation #8: In recent seasons, La Russa September clubs have slipped every single year.
The story is much different recently. In every one of the six complete seasons starting in 2003, the Cardinals have lost ground during September. Three times their lead shrunk, in one case they lost their lead completely (2003) and the most recent two seasons, they fell even further behind during the final full month.
One partial explanation could be that in two of the recent years, 2004 and 2005, the Cardinals leads were so large that perhaps losing a few meaningless September games didn’t really matter. Or did it?
Observation #9: Prior to 2009, neither of the two Cardinals teams with double-digit leads coming into September won the World Series, nor did the third team that ended the season with a lead greater than than ten games.
The 2009 club is in a similar situation, with a 10-½ game lead heading into the final month. The fact that both of the excellent, 100-win 2004 and 2005 teams did not make it to the top in October nor did the 2002 team that ended with a 13-game division cushion is impossible to ignore.
In closing, there are a myriad of possibilities for September underachievement, from non-contributing minor league call-ups to poor late-season acquisitions to an accumulation of injuries to a tired out roster to maybe even a bit of tightness.
Whatever the reasons for it, the facts are clear. September has been unkind to the Cardinals in recent years. With roughly half the month remaining, 2009 has all the potential of continuing the trend.
That doesn’t necessarily mean October failure will ensue.
After I posted this, I ran across a USAToday article that covers the same general subject on a much broader perspective – the team with the biggest divisional lead heading into the playoffs. The last time that team won the World Series was the 1998 Yankees. link.
2010 schedule issue. A couple months or so ago I emailed the Cards proposing that a Steve Bartman bobblehead day be set up for this weekend. They never got back to me on that, and I can only assume that the idea was ahead of its time. Now, with MLB ignoring the rivalry, while giving NYY/Bosox rivalry prime time at start of season, next August may be the time. As an additional tweak, Cubdom has been unable to get him to come out of hiding, so it would be great if he surfaced to contest and/or cooperate. We could ride him around the field in the beer wagon. Brian, your savvy could really help get this off the ground, and support from the blogoshere would of course be key.
There is much to be revealed about Cardinal Character this weekend. The Cubs are coming in soft and limping. In the end, it would be much better to see the Dodgers beat the Phillies in a short series, than to do it ourself. Phills are vulnerable if they have to go to LA. We can beat LA. I don’t like our chances if we open a series in Philly. Hamel and Lee…….not so good. We control our choice of serious.
make that scenarios……….even though “serious” has a piquant randomness.
It’s the ‘soft and limping’ cubs (7-3 in last 10) vs. theCards (4-6) who have just had their pants pulled down in front of the home crowd and didn’t seem to mind, at least not Tony or anybody else I saw interviewed. I am a proponant of unrestricted full frontal cub bashing, as are all right thinking fans, but I’d say its about even at best.
Its access to deeper emotional reservoirs BB. The wild card team will have come through fire by playoff time. They will be ready………………………….. The Cubs have been putting on sprints, but those take a toll on a team, as I suggested Wednesday afternoon. They did proceed to loose two very taxing games. As suggested. If we can’t exploit this, then we lack testicular fortitude, which to be honest, has alway been a problem here………………. Lilly can terrorize the Cardinals……….or the righties can just be patient and take him to right and right center. Like Florida did to Joel. If we are capable of carrying out a patient well planned hitting attack, we may win…..as we evolve doing the correct thing. Colby should be bunting and slapping tonight with a whip at his hind end.. He will bat 7 or 8. Its lugo at 2nd batting 2nd. Lets hope we can manufacture an early lead because there is little chance of Smoltz making 5 or 6 innings.
Nice win there, and a timely connection for Holiday. DeRosa shows too. Now if we will just feed a little on this bear carcass, we may gather all the advantages there are to collect.
I sure hope Holliday continues with those self doubts!
Congratulations to the Memphis Redbirds for winning the Pacific Coast League title tonight with yet another shutout. Evan MacLane bent but didn’t break and the whole team provided offense to support him. Great job guys!!! Hope to see some of you in St.Louis very soon.
Here, here, Axcion. I will be posting exclusive photos from Sacramento for Scout.com subscribers in the upcoming 24 hours.
“I sure hope Holiday continues to make progress resolving his self doubts!”
This is the correct English CC. I struggle with it too.
He had great position on that ball. He was thinking gaper double all the way I think. It ended up thigh high, and he decided it had to fly.