The weekend sweep by Atlanta over the Cardinals at Busch Stadium has put many of the team’s fans into a frenzy of worry and doubt. Coming into Monday’s action, the Cardinals had gone just 5-5 over their last ten games and 7-5 overall in September.
An insightful post on this blog Monday noted that of the six division leaders across MLB, only the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim had a record better than 6-4 over their most recent ten contests.
That got me to wondering how recent world champions fared during the start of September and through the remainder of the regular season. Results from this decade follow.
Of course, not taken into account are such relevant comparison factors as home-road, quality of opponent, current standings or really anything other than simple won-loss record.
The first columns show the teams’ records for the first dozen games in September and the next columns denote their results from September 1 through the end of the regular season. The far right column indicates a comparison of the two – whether the team played better or worse as the season drew to a close.
Compared to this decade’s World Series winners, the current Cardinals at 7-5 this month to-date would tie for the third-worst September start, following the 2001 Diamondbacks and the 2004 Cardinals and tied with last year’s champs from Philadelphia.
It is also worth noting that only the 2001 Arizona club and the 2008 Phillies finished the season with a better closing record than what they registered over their first dozen September games. In other words, seven of the nine last World Series champions played worse ball as the season’s end drew near than they did during the first dozen games of September.
This is not hard to rationalize as most of these clubs still finished strongly. Only the 2000 Yankees and 2004 Cards actually posted a losing regular-season record in September/October.
Perhaps some began to rest more regulars as their post-season spots were assured. Maybe one or two even let up a little bit. Yet when the October bell rang, each answered, winning the most important 11 games of them all.
Are there any more conclusions to draw here relative to the 2009 Cardinals? No, I don’t think there are.
Regular season wins, first 12 games of September and September 1 through end of regular season, World Series winner, 2000-2008
| 1st 12 in Sept | W | L | Pct. | 9/1 to end | W | L | Pct. | Better/worse | ||
| 2009 | St. Louis | 7 | 5 | 0.583 | ||||||
| WS winner | WS winner | |||||||||
| 2008 | Philadelphia | 7 | 5 | 0.583 | Philadelphia | 17 | 8 | 0.680 | Better | |
| 2007 | Boston | 9 | 3 | 0.750 | Boston | 16 | 11 | 0.593 | Worse | |
| 2006 | St. Louis | 6 | 6 | 0.500 | St. Louis | 12 | 17 | 0.414 | Worse | |
| 2005 | White Sox | 8 | 4 | 0.667 | White Sox | 19 | 12 | 0.613 | Worse | |
| 2004 | Boston | 9 | 3 | 0.750 | Boston | 21 | 11 | 0.656 | Worse | |
| 2003 | Florida | 10 | 2 | 0.833 | Florida | 18 | 8 | 0.692 | Worse | |
| 2002 | Anaheim | 11 | 1 | 0.917 | Anaheim | 18 | 9 | 0.667 | Worse | |
| 2001 | Arizona | 4 | 8 | 0.333 | Arizona | 14 | 13 | 0.519 | Better | |
| 2000 | Yankees | 9 | 3 | 0.750 | Yankees | 13 | 18 | 0.419 | Worse | |
| Total | 73 | 35 | 0.676 | Total | 148 | 107 | 0.580 | Worse |
Kind of interesting that the club is hedging on Lohse a little. MRI huh. He is stalling his motion and over throwing on his finish. Tony calls it muscling his pitches. Beside control problems, it is the biggest tell in baseball. The hitters love it when he gives that little extra. The Mri is a protection of their investment me thinks. They will read it as they desire. Back door open.
Brian, is there a part 2 to this article because it doesn’t answer the important question – do Sept results impact/correlate to playoff performance?
Calculating payroll, team health, the weather, tightness of the race, growing differentiation between AL and NL etc, etc,. Lets quantify all the variables, use a non linear differential equation, using fractal generation characteristics. We hire two super computing laboratory’s to verify continuity, and let them run the equation for 6 months. I’ll be able to tell you who won soon after………. Or, did I mention how good Torre’s playoff preparation is? Just don’t be third and try and find out. Phillies don’t want to go to LA. 130 pitches worth. We can rest folks, just don’t come in third.
CC, different people have different important questions, but yes, at least in the context of the Cardinals, there will be a part two.
Lugo had that intensity yesterday. Just like when he first arrived. Tony took the bat out of his hands in the first with the first pitch hit and run. After that he was pounding the ball. That long visit to the pine refocused him a bit maybe. Looked smooth at SS too. I wonder if there’s any connection at all to Albert’s growing negativity toward Ryan and Tony exploring this a bit.
Ryan the rookie hogging positive press, deflecting attention from money/ego guys.
I don’t know BB. Ryan is a bit of a squirrel (Grey,Red?). When he approached the on Deck Pujols Sunday, Albert was talking back at him shaking his head in the classic “no” configuration. I couldn’t tell whether Ryan was talking at him when he was talking because of the camera angle. Try shaking your head when you giving or making a positive statement. Tough huh…………… Ryan is doing great but I bet Lugo plays allot when the money s down.
Don’t mean to talk down on statistic’s guys. It like reading a restaurant review when your eating there for some reason. If the batting average represents a hitters success, does the remaining 600 untouchable points represent a measurement of his heart or desire? We always try to bat 1000, most are lucky to achieve 300. If you have a guy that is trying to bat 300, there is your 220 hitter every time…………………………………… The WCBW obscure point of the day. One of the first teams to have to attack Albert was LA with Torre. That is the crowding and pitching at the hands that has caused so much grief here. The Cardinals have allot of flaws, lets challenge the Rockies or the Giants at home to find or protect and polish them. The Phillies don’t wanna go to LA. We have had some sucsess there, but lets play smart.
I’m watching the Lohse situation with interest. Inflammation? I don’t think so. You’re looking at an investment prerogative by the Cards. He will pitch in the end because we need him. His motion is setting him up to over throw. They will find it.
For the record Welly was locating nicely until he started using his body excessively. Fatigue? Its a tough business.
One more thing on this topic……………..
Albert hits third base and Oquendo’s hand go up. Albert ignores, rounds the bag, the knees are very high, excellent arm angle and action. The big man was flying…………….. He had a noticeable limp afterwards. He isn’t trained for that type of effort. Its very dangerous to risk injury. It was one of the efforts that lifted the team, as was Carpenter completion of his start………………… Things that occur in the upper 600. Where the creation is taking place.
I’m still convinced Westy, think about the clubhouse dynamic. Everythings normal, all revolving around the then sufficiently praised Albert and Tony. Then along comes RBI per game producing, his bats bigger than yours, Holliday, and gold glove looking, .300 hitting, full time playing best SS in NL Ryan, and ‘poof’ its not all about Tony and Albert anymore. How can respect, authority and the barnyard pecking order be maintained. Holliday’s a big unit, can’t pick on him, but Brendan can be dissed with impunity.
Holiday is a pretty quiet guy BB. Maybe.