During Sunday’s Cardinals broadcast on Channel 5, Frank Cusamano conducted a live, in-game interview with St. Louis general manager John Mozeliak. Cusamano asked Mo about the club readying itself for the post-season.
Mo noted that it was all about getting the team to peak at the right time. He expressed confidence that the hitting would come together between now and then while hoping the pitching can continue its recent success, including the return of closer Ryan Franklin to his earlier dominance.
Nothing out of the ordinary there, but the comments remained with me.
With all due respect to Joel Pineiro, who is having his best full-season ever with a 3.21 ERA to date, from a pitching perspective, I believe the Cardinals’ October chances depend most on the arms of co-aces Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.
Over on Scout.com’s message board on Sunday, I posted a thought that Carpenter be removed after his third-inning flameout, during which the Atlanta Braves had scored six runs. I didn’t expect it to actually happen, but that didn’t keep me from wishing it had.
Instead, Carp remained in the game to pitch scoreless frames in the fourth and fifth. KSDK’s Ricky Horton applauded the move, saying it was important for Carp to exit the game on a high note.
That was not to be.
With Brad Thompson warming up in the fifth, Horton and broadcast partner Jay Randolph, Sr. speculated that Carp was done. Instead, he was sent out to pitch the sixth, during which he hit the leadoff man and eventually yielded another score on an RBI single, his seventh earned run of the day.
Only after that inning was Carp’s day finished, the Cards mired deep in a 7-0 hole. I am sorry, but for a veteran, especially a 34-year-old former Cy Young Award winner, I do not buy for one second the “leave on a high note” sentiment.
There is absolutely no way Carpenter was going to feel good about his Sunday any time after the third inning, nor should he. I don’t care if he went on to pitch six perfect innings afterward. The damage on that day was done and could not be reversed.
I have personally heard Tony La Russa speak many times about saving bullets – not using pitchers more than needed to preserve them for more important games later. More often that not, the subject was relievers rather than starters, but why wouldn’t it apply to both?
I am not going to recount the extent of Carpenter’s past physical ailments, but instead will simply remind readers of his five-week stay on the disabled list earlier this season and the fact that there is a good reason he is the leader for the National League Comeback Player of the Year award – having missed pretty much the entire 2007 and 2008 seasons.
Some people point to pitch counts per game as an indicator of wear and tear, noting that Carpenter threw just 95 pitches on Sunday. OK, but what good did it do for him to stay in for his final three innings – 42 pitches more?
Wainwright is leading the National League in pitches thrown in 2009 with 3188 and has averaged right at 600 pitches per month all season long. Carpenter does not rank in the league’s top 20, which is not surprising given his time out.
Looking at pitches thrown since June 1 helps put this into perspective. Wainwright, over six years younger than Carpenter at 28 years of age, is at 2029. Carp is just 44 pitches behind him at 1985.
While I don’t have Wainwright’s pitch totals for past seasons, at 205 innings pitched to date here in mid-September, he has already eclipsed his previous career high, set in 2007. Three weeks remain on the regular-season schedule.
Now, I am not saying that Carpenter and Wainwright should be babied. It is only natural that pitchers of their caliber are going to want the ball every fifth day with the mindset to toss a complete game shutout. Extra days off are good, but the pitches continue to mount.
The Cardinals have other hurlers available with starting experience that can eat September innings – innings that are much less important than the ones coming ahead in October.
Some of these other pitchers won’t make the playoff roster anyway, so there is less need to conserve them. Additional reserves could be called upon from Memphis, perhaps as soon as this coming weekend.
Since September 1, Brad Thompson has pitched just 3 2/3 innings, with three of them having come on Sunday in relief of Carpenter. Blake Hawksworth has 4 2/3; Mitchell Boggs nine. Having both come off the DL recently, Saturday’s starter Kyle Lohse has 4 1/3 and Monday’s starter Todd Wellemeyer has just one.
Carpenter alone has thrown just 1 2/3 fewer innings than the five of them in total this month.
I may be in the minority, but I would like to see more of those other pitchers now in hopes of seeing more vintage results from Carpenter and Wainwright next month – despite the likelihood this may mean fewer wins in the regular season for the individuals and their team.
The offense could also help reduce the workload on the two by giving them more runs earlier in games with which to work. Theoretically, this would minimize the temptation to keep the starters in the game to either chase a win for them or because the game’s outcome was still in doubt. Of course, this can neither be predicted nor controlled.
Sure, throwing fewer pitches may hurt their individual campaigns for Cy Young Award votes, and the race for home field advantage is still undecided, but there is no doubt that an 11th world championship is the primary goal of everyone involved.
The $64,000 question is finding the best way to get there. It is clearly a delicate balancing act for which no one will know the optimal formula until it is probably too late to adjust – assuming the current recipe leads to the wrong conclusion, that is.
I keep coming back to Mo’s comment about peaking at the right time, I fear the twin aces are at risk of having reached that point too soon. If that happens, the Cardinals hopes to play deep into October may be dealt a fatal blow.
Time will tell.
Tony probably left Carp in hoping the offense would come back and give him a chance for a win or at least off the hook, trying to help him with the Cy Young race. That’s something Tony would do. Speaking of offensive underachievement causing wear and tear on pitchers, Franklin appears to have been ridden hard and put away wet too many times. Tony will be reluctant to pull the A team until Majic # is 0. A lot is being made in other venues about the Cards feasting on road kill the previous month and now facing opponents with teeth from here on. It will be instructive to see how they react to getting their pants pulled down in front of the hometown fans. Need Welly to man up.
Brian, that is a very thoughtful view and analysis of the situation. Most of the dangers you illuminate are real. But the issues is these;
1) Its a dangerous game. For everyone. Colby’s non-call could have ended the season for Holiday. That goes on and on.
2) Thats not who Chris Carpenter is. Thats not how he would want his team mates to view his effort. As surely as the Atlanta scores 6 with 2 outs, so should or could the Cardinals. Thats the weakness of this team of individuals, a by product I think of Tony’s platoon isms. If this team gets swept by the Marlins (unlikely) and the Cubs win three straight, you don’t think that the weekend will be interesting.
3) Carp and Waino’s little competition is important to them. Carp needs the 6 innings, for his own self image. You can bet Tony asked more than once how he felt.
4) The swagger I’ve been seeing, if so easily removed, isn’t swagger at all. Its a bunch of yocals hanging out with bona fide super stars who have been there before. DeRosa is really hurting. Ryan is a squirrel still at this point. Rasmus is a real rookie. Albert can be tactically savaged with his current instabilities. Holiday seems a little spaced to me.
5) There aren’t many dogs to kick at this point. If you want to be the big dog, you better fight like one. CC is right, everyone is playing 500 ball at this point. The way to home field and the series will probably be 600 ball. Our hitting philosophy is a joke. Tony has run out of chances to agitate players by benching them. Carps example, is about all the reminder we have of “we’re a team” some body pick me up.
Saw Lou Brock on TV this morning saying Ernie Broglio would be at his (Lou’s) 70th bday gala thursday. Lou said at time of the trade he (Brock) was a “kid with two left feet”, and Broglio a winning pitcher who happened to hurt his arm. Lou looked good.
I agree with Brian.
The most important thing for post-season is getting your pitching staff ready and that can include some rest.
Wainwright is en route to a career high in innings. Adam’s best pitch is a curve and that is tough on physical health. He had a finger injury last year likely related to the stress of his big curve.
Carpenter is always one pitch away from his unpredictable nerve system misfiring. The fewer innings the better.
Pineiro is probably ok, he can keep firing his one finger sinker. Carp and Adam are more vulnerable pitchers.
Lohse needs innings to build strength. Lohse, Pineiro, Wellemeyer, Thompson, Boggs, looks like a good rotation for this time of the season. Take some load off Carpenter and Wainwright. They need to be protected for the playoffs.
Home field does not matter much in the playoffs. The most important thing is having a good 4 man rotation and playing well.
I have advocated from day one, that these guys should be protected from the 130 pitch craziness of the Phillies with Pedro. The Phillies have fear of blown saves at this point and it threatens everything they are doing.
The “much” that it doesn’t matter Jumbo, is the difference between winning and loosing. Anything can happen at this point. Good teams can hit the Curve Ball. Carp got a message at an opportune time. He needs his six innings for rhythm. Nothing was hurt there. We have the days off plus the 5 man rotation gaining a day a week. Thats plenty. We need the kids to antagonize and challenge the rookies and wanna beeeeee’s………….. I see the Lugo has been rediscovered, and Yadi pastured. I would have sat DeRosa too.
Oh yeah,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, you don’t want to go to LA to start a short series!!!!!!!! Torre is better than LaRusa. They whipped the Cubs easily last year.
Nice situational hitting by Holiday and Ludwck. Welly is locating well so far. For those that are following the Albert talk, notice that his back foot is 3 to 4 inches off the inside line. His weight is back and his bat is layed off or more behind him with a more suspended weight of the bat head, less perpendicular to ground. This is holding his hips a little more closed with these adjustments. I like the results.
These guys do read Brian’s blog, or they’re just figuring it out on there own. I love tivo.
DeRosa just got caught trying to turn on something. Strike out on the outside corner.
I feel bad for Welly. The booing sucks. He starts to over throw, gets underneath his breaking pitches and boom. Its a tough life…………. I sure hope we stay aggressive on the bases and show some guts here.
Yeah guts. I wish the Marlins weren’t such good hitters. Were going to need 10 to win.
I wonder if we could add Cotton Dickson, Trey Hearne, or Casey Mulligan to the ML bullpen, to give us an extra pitcher, until the Memphis season ends.
Terrible choice by Holiday………………what the h was he thinking. He has to take the ball out of the infield.
Don’t know them Jumbo. We need Garcia and Boggs.
Jumbo, yes it is technically possible to add a Double-A pitcher but it would be unlikely. The rub would be in adding them to the 40-man roster before necessary and using up spots targeted for more immediate needs.
Bush league……………………………..
Colby guessed him. After two big swings, he stays back for the change. That was solid.
Good game boys……….. situational hitting, hit and run, steeling………just like a real baseball team. If Albert will hold these adjustments, every thing will work out.
Re: Pedro 130 craziness. The Phills have a real team chasing them and are Lidgeless. At the time they had a 5 game lead with 6 against fish yet to come, including last 3 of season. They had no room to worry about the post-season except just getting there. If Cards sweep fish, Pedro can rest up. Hmmm. Perhaps Jumbo’s on to something. Bring on the B team. Welly did his part, but offense continues to be un-timely.
Actually Brian I believe Hearne and Mulligan could have been taken in this year’s rule 5 draft. They’ll have to be added or lost next spring anyway. Hearne I could see coming up and being given a look-see so we do know whether to protect him. Casey has been a stand-out and is one of the excellent crop of relievers we have, but if I were to take someone from Spr. roster it would be Eduardo Sanchez. IMO he’s our closer of the future.
Albeit, he’s got competition. Fernando Salas, Mulligan, Franciso Samuel, Pete Parise, Oneli Perez and Adam Reifer. All of which (except Reifer) should be ready to join the bullpen in 2010. And then you have others like Josh Kinney, Matt Scherer and P.J.Walters ready to join the early inning boys and it looks like the relief corp will be a strength next year.
SECURITY BREACH!!! Brian please look into this right away; some Cub fan has hacked into JumboShrimps computer and posted a comment suggesting we use Wellemeyer, Thompson, and Boggs in the rotation for the rest of September. Apparently he thinks this evil plan will put most Cardinal fans in the nuthouse. Well, we’re onto your devious plot mister and consider it foiled. Not only that but you might want to apologize to Jumbo for ruining his good name.
Just joshing Jumbo, I’ve been beating the ‘give the boys a rest’ drum for a few weeks now. But the thought of those 3 in the rotation together is going to give me nightmares. You’re a good man Jumbo, but that notion is just cruel and unusual punishment.
Axcion, your recollection regarding Hearne, Mulligan and Rule 5 is a bit off. Hearne was actually available last year and obviously was not taken. Mulligan is not eligible this winter.
Here is a post from this spring in which I went into the Rule 5 situation in detail: link
Thanks Brian, I do remember reading that article over a couple times. I don’t think there will be much of a problem protecting our top talent since there’s only 4 or 5 more of those guys I would protect. Funny you should mention Wallace, Todd and Mortenson all in the same sentence and they all got traded. Is this going to be like the Sports Illustrated cover jinx. Every year you mention top prospects that may get added to the 40-man early and they all get traded. If it is please let me suggest some names for next year.
Sanchez finished the AA season in a tailspin, so should get the winter off. Dickson or Hearne could help with depth while Memphis is in the playoffs. If Mulligan is not Rule 5 draft eligible, he should not be elevated.