Much has been written about the perceived impact the addition of outfielder Matt Holliday has provided the St. Louis Cardinals.
After all, during the week prior to his arrival, the club had been swept in Houston and their cushion in the National League Central had eroded to 1.5 games.
Holliday’s numbers while wearing the uniform have been nothing short of spectacular. Coming into Sunday’s action, he leads the Cardinals in RBI (43), hits (63), batting average (.373) and slugging (.686) since his first game with them on July 24. He has hit safely in 36 of his 45 games with St. Louis, including 18 multi-hit contests.
In his 24 home games, Holliday has been even better with an average of .413 (38-for-92), with eight home runs and 24 RBI.
The offense improved accordingly, scoring 4.53 runs per game during the 45 games with Holliday on board compared to 4.15 over the 98 contests prior. That translates to an increase of better than 1/3 run per game on average, .38 runs per game to be precise.
Finally, look at the bottom line. Coming into Sunday’s action, St. Louis was a major league-best 32-13 (.711) since Holliday’s July 24 arrival. Their lead in the NL Central grew by nine games, to 10.5-game lead.
End of discussion, right?
Not exactly. All of the above was intended to set up my real intention for writing this.
Put aside for a moment the reality that the Cardinals had a relatively-easy schedule during August with eight of nine series coming against teams with losing records. Fact is they won the games they needed to win.
Here’s the rub.
Since Holliday’s arrival, Cardinals pitching has improved more than the offense.
In other words, the numbers say the impact of better pitching has been greater in terms of runs per game saved than the Holliday-driven offense has provided since July 24.
Since Holliday is known for his bat, not his defense, one cannot assign him any measurable credit for an improvement in mound performance.
Prior to the trade, the staff ERA was 3.95. Since, it has been 3.36, an improvement of .59 runs per game. Compare that to the offensive surge of .38 more runs per game noted above and I rest my case.
Of course the good news is that both the hitting and the pitching have combined to make hay during an easier stretch of the Cardinals schedule. Holliday has been an important part of that.
Yet assuming the offense, driven by Holliday’s gaudy personal numbers, has been the primary reason for the team’s recent surge would seem an inaccurate conclusion to draw.
Perhaps this means that the hitting can still reach its peak efficiency heading into October, but one does have to wonder if the pitching will correspondingly backslide.
This weekend’s sweep by the Braves at Busch Stadium indicates reason for concern as 2009 pitching stalwarts Ryan Franklin and Chris Carpenter both suffered through subpar outings.
They weren’t alone. Holliday just went 3-for-12 (.250) and Albert Pujols 2-for-12 (.167) over the just-completed three-game series as the offense could do little with Atlanta pitching in games one and three.
Thats was a solid question, and a great reply Brian. Atlanta has a good scouting tradition. Truth be know, we stranded a bunch in games 1&2. Valesquez had our number with speed changes and location. His breaking stuff fit in nicely. The Cardinal hitters think people will give them what they’re looking for. Sorry boys. Oddly enough, it was Ryan and Shu that seemed to be trying to fulfill reasonable expectations from a good pitcher. Holiday was dragging yesterdays collision scare it seemed. The Atlanta announcers were laughing at Pujols. Nice.
The new guys came on board like a ball of fire, putting up unsustainable numbers, everyone slobbered over the moves. If we make some allowance for the unsustainable spike in the production of the new guys, and facing mediocre pitching, the moves which stripped top talant from AAA have done essentially nothing at all to increase offensive production, as BW’s piece shows. Our starters may or may not stay hot, but they will not go 9 very much. Our closer may or may not be circling the drain but his problem emerges as more than the “needs a few days rest to rejuvenate his arm” that we were fed. That is all fact. Speculation/wishful thinking hopes Smoltz or Lohse could do this or might do that, Franklin’s arm will rise again, some other guy or another will emerge and do stuff he’s never done, Albert returns to having his best year ever, etc.,etc. Before all this we were struggling to lead the weakest NL division, no hope of wild card. What reason is there (based on fact, not hope and pray) to think we will not return to that form in time for post-season? Please, cheer me up, methinks we’re doomed.
blingboy, it does not matter that you think the Cards are doomed. What matters is what the Cards think and do, come October. How about keep the defeatist slobber to yourself?
Give up on the season, just look back in January and read about what happenned. You can then celebrate or cheer in January. Following this stuff day to day seens too stressful for you. You are taking things much too seriously.
There is a cyclic nature to performance based activities BB. Franklin has good stuff. He lost some edge emotionally when his future became a little more secure. That beard will remind him to get a little hungry again. Tony’s preferred lineups now start to exclude certain players. Albert’s ups and downs are effecting Holiday I would guess. DeRosa has been under performing all along. Lohse’s velocity is back, just not his scrotal fortitude. He is bound to eventually be embarrassed by is need to speak to the press about his personal experiences on the mound, and maybe get it right.
The reason I said earlier that I was curious about how we would respond to their pitching is now evident. Also, our inability to respond to Carpenters need for support is disturbing. Notice that Lugo has disappeared, that Thursty looks good at the plate in comparison the Greene and Glaus.. That our bench looks like crap. When the kids come in, and they better……..Tony will probably stir the pot a bit. I still can’t believe Smoltz’s two inning rap fest while the Cards were drowning on Saturday. We were out played…….definitely out coached, pitching included, and that its time to review tactics. I fire Hal McRae immediately……………just because I know he’s guilty.
Holiday is a stud, he will be there when the fight begins. I give Molina 2 days off just to clear his head. I by a case of Viagra and set it on the bench with a “Help Your Self ” sign.”………. I just found out my friend and recording buddy Norton Buffalo has 2 weeks. Stage 4 Cancer. That sucks.
Without Holliday, the Cards would have had a rough time, because Pujols has unsurprisingly slowed after an incredible first half.
Its too bad the team has not been able to get some reinforcements, but they have been delayed by Memphis being in the playoffs. The price of minor league success. It would be nice to give Carpenter and Wainwright a skipped start or some extra days off.
We should pitch Thompson every other day and give Khalil and Glaus a bunch of starts. Give Albert some off days.
I was there all weekend and can reliably report that the TV highlights don’t reflect the wretchedness of play. The lamentable offensive strategy is to rely on one big bat to carry the team, first Albert, then Matt. If niether steps up, the rest flail away to no avail. Thompson? Khalil? Glaus? You’re joking, right?
He didn’t say we were losers Jumbo, just that we were doomed………..oh………. I think this is a timely slump to evaluate the players commitments. I think we will produce BB.
I wrote a real duzzie that seems to have disappeared. I hope it shows up.
It was in the spam filter, WC. Perhaps it was the use of the word Viagra.
No I am not joking. Put in Wellemeyer, Thompson, Khalil, and Glaus to give some rest to guys who we need for the playoffs. The games against the Braves did not matter in the slightest.
Maybe the Westie filter does not like the word scrotal.
Its a Spam filter jumbo, not a ham filter.
I have the utmost confidence that Wainer will end the losing skid on Tuesday. Unfortunately, the problems of our inept offense continue. Once a week they make a splash and then it’s up to the starting pitching to win the games for us again. I agree with WCW; McRae has to go. In fairness, Tony has to step up his game too. Where is all the ingame strategy he used back in our 100 win seasons. He attempted 18 suicide squeezes in one year! The offense needs to be kick-started TLR. Wake up man! Put some excitement into the games. At least show your pitchers you’re trying to help them.
I agree with Jumbo, at least on the pitchers. I don’t want them flaming out. On the other hand the hitters have to get into some kind of rhythm. I would audition some of the Memphis players, but unfortunately we’re a victim of our own success. Our less than stellar bench needs a reconstruction before a playoff collapse does us in.
Hey Brian, how about a story on our offensive(?). I’d like to know how our RISP rates with the other teams in the playoff hunt. If the Braves proved one thing it’s that another exceptional starting staff can take us down. Not to mention one with lefties and minor league journeymen. I hate to say it but these guys lack a killer instinct.
Just being an ass, (no need to agree people) but our offense should have T-shirts made up that proclaim we’re “The Barely Enough Gang”.
Which is still better than the “Never Enough Crew” in Chicago.
Good one AX…………… We will win the division, but wouldn’t it be more interesting if its was by about 4 or 5 games and be the number three seed………….. If we are going to play the Yankees, we have to start this week by winning both series. Period. Pedro M goes 130 pitches……..fools.
Westy, I’ll hoist one for your friend. If you’re talking about ‘the’ Norton Buffalo it is a sad day for us all. I’m a long time fan and admirer. Tell him thanks.
By the way Jumbo, those Braves games mattered to me and about 40,000 other customers.
Last 10 games
Yankees 6-4
Detroit 5-5
Cardinals 5-5
Phillies 5-5
Dodgers 6-4
It looks like all the division leaders except the Angels are doomed!
LOL, CC! I will have to call JMo out in Vegas and have him bet the house on the Angels to take it all.
The road to Rio………………… the Cardinals show in 2006 that anyone can win. Home field advantage is just hanging there. Who ever commands the high ground has leverage. All teams are floundering. Thats good. Lets win the home field and focus some athletes. You can’t tell me that if the Phillies survive what they’re going through, and end up with the Home field, that they aren’t going to win it. Dodgers went the long way last year. Joe T. can polish a pretty good playoff team. Lets take that advantage for our selfs………….the first thing to win. Lets talk about odds making at a later date. You absolutely have to like Florida tonight against Welly. How not. I remember a dejected Rockies team coming in here, and then leaving high as kites. Atlanta came in here with nothing, and left singing Dixie. If it were anyone but the Cubs in our division, I’d be hedging some bets.
29 teams are doomed this season, one will take all, for this go round.
Correction, Jumbo. The Pirates and several other clubs are more than doomed. They have been officially declared dead!
The problem with avg runs is that it weights the meaningless runs piled up in blowouts, and measures a team’s ability to pile on when the going is good. It would be interesting to see the “median” runs per game figures, that number of runs which they score more than just as often as less than. I’m thinking this would give a better sense of day-in day-out production.