The St. Louis Cardinals are on their way to what is shaping up to be a most interesting post-season, their first in three years. The club may go into the playoffs as the favorite to represent the National League in the World Series for the third time in the last six years.
With the only suspense over the next three weeks being whether or not the team will secure home-field advantage, Cardinals watchers, apparently needing something to talk about, seem overly focused on free agent-to-be Matt Holliday’s future.
Until there is an announcement, if there will be one, chances are very high there will be nothing new to say before play ends this season about whether or not the power-hitting outfielder will return to St. Louis.
Yet the likes of ESPN’s Buster Olney continue to weigh in on the subject. In a Friday Insider article, Olney does a quick, back-of-the-envelope analysis of the Cardinals’ major payroll commitments for 2010 and concludes:
“Nothing in the Cardinals’ recent history tells us” that the club will “approach or surpass $100 million in payroll in order to keep him,” opines Olney.
Olney bases his historical perspective on data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, concluding:
“…the Cardinals have never opened a season with a payroll greater than $92.1 million.”
While I am a proponent of using past behavior to help gauge what might happen in the future, this analysis seems narrow at best. Most likely, Olney has no idea what the Cardinals will do. They could shift money to future years by back-end loading their offer and/or defering money, increase payroll, restructure other players’ contracts or perhaps even trade some salary to accommodate Holliday.
It all depends on how badly ownership wants to keep him. None of us know what they are going to do.
The idea of trading salary is a realistic possibility. After all, that is how Mark DeRosa became available to St. Louis. Last winter, the Cubs binged on expensive free agents such as the unpopular and disappointing Milton Bradley and tried to acquire former National League Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy from San Diego. One by-product was purging the popular and valuable DeRosa, who was sent to Cleveland, from where the Cardinals later rescued him.
In recent years, several Cardinals players, most recently Jason Isringhausen among them, worked with the team to restructure their contracts, deferring money out to future years to create additional current years’ payroll flexibility. Who is to say that couldn’t be attempted again if deemed necessary?
Olney concludes with this statement:
“…I’ll venture a guess (and it’s nothing more at this point): Holliday winds up signing with the Angels…”
Turns out that Olney is not alone. Some members of the Cardinal Nation (note the “the” is not capitalized!) are all up in arms over a statement reportedly made by Post-Dispatch Hall of Fame writer Rick Hummel in a recent interview with KSDK Channel 5′s Jay Randolph, Sr.
In it, the “Commish” allegedly said there is “zero chance” the Cardinals will re-sign Holliday or Joel Pineiro. One major message board where some wild discussions regularly occur has seven screens and counting of reaction, much of it predictably negative.
No one apparently bothered to check out the accuracy of the statement – until I did.
In an email exchange on Friday morning, Hummel expressed concern over how well (or poorly) people listen and the risks of the internet before clarifying:
“The quote was ‘zero’ chance they would re-resign the combination of Holliday, Pineiro and DeRosa, which I think anyone would agree with. They would have the least chance, almost ‘zero’, I would say of re-signing Pineiro,” explains Hummel.
That is what Hummel actually said to Randolph, which is most logical. I agree with him 100%.
With major long-term financial commitments to the front three in the rotation, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse, Pineiro most likely has priced himself out of the Cardinals willingness to pay open market value for his continued services after 2009.
Using the above logic, trading Lohse to free up money for Pineiro could be an option, but one would think there would be few takers given Lohse’s injury-plagued 2009 and huge remaining three-year commitment, not to mention having to buy out his no-trade protection.
The key point is that this has nothing to do with Holliday. Note that Hummel specifically did not rule out the possibility of the Cardinals signing both Holliday and DeRosa.
It is a shame that some can’t sit back and enjoy the ride here in 2009 and wait to get all wound up over the off-season until it actually arrives.
Joel will be leaving Brian. The deal WC suggested needs to be talked about because it is based on careful research. Very careful research!!! Try to find wisdom in his conclusions and draw some attention to the idea……….least MH slip away in the grip of the self interested SB.
Not so fast Westy. Consider this: Going into 2010 with our top 4 starters, Franklin, Yady, Pujols, Holiday, and a bunch of minimum wage guys would give us a contender.
Right there, inserting likely numbers for Holliday and Piniero with the known numbers for the others, BD could afford that, and not really be much out of line with the clubs payroll history.
Brendan and Colby are cheap. Then the issues would be how much does it cost to re-up Albert and how structured (key), and how much do Ludwig and Skip cost, do they stay or do they go, and which of our AAA third basemen gets first shot.
Solid analysis BB. That seems to be based on the assumption that BD has radically changed his business plan. He has not……….. he has traded in a number of fab eggs of questionable value is all. His fast and loose position has more carefully prepared scapegoats than a Afghanistan politician X goat herder. I’m on his side at present. I would make the above offer if I were he. Might work….
With all the present political distractions, BD’s position may deteriorate instead of becoming more fluid.
I must apologize for not fully reading your post Brian………. I missed some of the nuance. As Yoda would say,” difficult the future is to see when so many assumptions about the present are wrong”.
I do agree that the Angels will be our biggest competitors for the services of Holliday.
Brian, thanks for the clarification about the actual words of Hummel. Inaccurate reports can spread fast.
It is only natural that there will be a great deal of Holliday speculation. Many bloggers and reporters are going to speculate about the future of pending free agents. Its just the nature of the way things are now. To wish otherwise will engender disappointment.
MLB and the players union may not be unhappy with rampant speculation. Soap operas can make money.
Seasons have predictable news peaks and troughs. In june and july, its a great time for rumors and speculation about who is going to get traded. By September, some races are unexciting and the season is nearing its end. So of course, it becomes time for handwringing and wild thinking about who is going to sign with whom and for how much during the offseason. Its a bit like the night before Christmas and children full of happy ideas about what Santa may bring.
At this point, we fans do not know what Holliday, Scottie B. and the Cards will decide. If and when something is decided, it will be announced, and then it will be known to us. For the time being, its good to leave the thinking to the parties involved, be relaxed, and enjoy the 2009 winning season.
Its nice to see Reid Gorecki in another uniform. Its nice that we have a richer minor league crop than the Braves.
Fire ‘em all the bums
There certainly seems to be a lot of talk about resigning DeRosa too. His contributions seem to have been blown out of proportion. Look closely and you will see that he’s not much better than Ankiel. DeRosa’s strength is his hitting, not necessarily his fielding, especially at third. With wrist surgery awaiting this off season, I’d say signing Mark would be a huge mistake. Most players with hand or wrist injuries take anywhere up to 2 years to regain their swing/power.
In my books this would be a huge gamble akin to resigning Mulder. He’s older with a significant injury. Cut him loose. Let Freese and Craig battle it out for 3b next spring. Please don’t bring up Craig’s defense. We were perfectly willing to let a non-thirdbaseman like Joe Mather play there last year. Thurston and Khalil Greene aren’t thirdbasemen, but we stuck them on the field. Save the money for DeRosa and ante it up for Pineiro or Holliday.
Pretty convincing argument AX……………………we will certainly be playing against him then. His injury is kind of unusual. Its usually a bone break that weakens the grip and thus the swing so much I think. The sheath injury is more about pain and inflammation. He hasn’t done much so they probably make an early offer with incentives. If he likes it here, he might buy in. I think its unlikely though. The Cubs will snap him up if he is let go.
Joe Mather has not played 3B in the majors. He had a trial during spring training 2009. It is the nature of spring to conduct experiments. This season Joe has been working to recover and bounce back from his hamate injury in 2008.
The Cards seem to have given up hope regarding Allen Craig at 3B. He has been re-assigned to LF, though could also serve at 1B.
I’m with you, Ax. DeRosa’s injury and age make him a very risky signing unless he decides to accept significantly less money than in past seasons. The Cards have other options at the position.
I understand the DeRosa risks, and I agree to a point, but it will take up to double what DeRosa will cost to re-sign Pineiro and probably more years, too. It is not a 1-for-1 decision.
In other words, we all agree that Holliday is priority one. If the Cards sign two of the three, sheer dollars point to DeRosa, not Pineiro being the second.
Mather was playing third Friday night for Springfield and unfortunately made two errors, including one on the final play. It may be a signal that he will be tried there again in spring training in 2010. That also can help explain what seemed initially to be an odd decision to leave a hitter with over 130 career MLB at-bats in Double-A. After all, there are five players already on the Memphis roster that can play third base (Freese, Craig, Solano, Barden, T Greene).
Speaking of Craig at third, some of us have questioned whether his defense there was MLB-quality for a long time. Given he may have the best bat on his team, but is no better than the second-best third baseman on the roster (and perhaps even lower), it only makes sense for Craig to gain more experience playing elsewhere.
I am hoping both Mather and Craig play winter ball somewhere.
Like Loshe last year, Pineiro is having a career year. Remember that just a year ago, he was nicknamed, probably rightly, Pinata. Given the overvalue placed on pitching in the free-agent market, I believe that Pineiro is going to get Suppan or better money next year and that is far beyond what he will really be worth. I just don’t see him repeating this year’s performance. His BABIP is significantly better than it has been since 2003. At 31, I don’t see him deserving a 3 or 4 year deal (which is what he is going to get). Halliday, on the other hand, is going to command something in the neighborhood of 18 to 22 million a year for probably a minimum of 5 years. However, in the Cardinals’ favor, signing with them represents a shot at a title every year for the length of the contract. That cannot be overblown. Further, with the Yankees reportedly not interested, there is unlikely to be the “extreme” contract offered to him, which gives the Cardinals a better shot.
Chris, I agree with almost everything you said. One major exception is thinking there will not be an “extreme” bid for Holliday if he hits the open market. The Angels have Vlad Guerrero’s contract coming off the books and have been known to overspend in the past. In addition, that is Boras’ base of operations. As noted above, if Holliday reaches free agency, the Angels may make a very large offer.
If the Red Sox can’t re-sign Jason Bay, they should not be counted out, either. As we all know, they have no issue burning money on bad contracts and had a big offer on Teixeira pulled out from under them last winter by Boras. (Bay is not a Boras client.)
It makes sense the Cards gave Joe Mather some playing time at AA. In limited at bats, his OPS was still under 700. Coming back from hamate and wrist problems must be a difficult and slow process. Joe’s future is probably going to be governed by restoration of his hitting ability.
Joe is a flexible player with a lot of skills. He can play LF, RF, 1B, even a little CF. He can do all these things already. Its fine to give him added training and familiarity at 3B. This can only add to his repertoire and not do him any harm. Whether he could develop enough skill for the position probably remains to be seen. If his bat recovers, Mather should return to the majors, in some capacity. Its going to be the restoration of his prior strength and hitting ability that is going to matter.
David Freese is in a good situation. Two years of AAA experience, fine hitting. If he has overcome his foot injury from last winter’s accident, he should be ready to compete at a ML level next season.
Agree on Freese, Jumbo. That is why I can’t understand why he isn’t on the top of everyone’s list for a (late) September call up. After a lost season, he should also be playing winter ball.
If the PCL finals go a full five games, the Memphis players would not reach St. Louis until the final road trip starting 9/21. At that point, only 12 regular season games will remain. May as well keep the call up list very short as few will get a chance to play. With DeRosa still hurting, Freese could be one of them.
Holliday is in a strong situation in terms of his next contract. He has excelled with St Louis, elevating his price tag. He may merit a 6 or 7 year deal, with an opt out clause at his discretion.
After a while, its not just about the money, but about the person and his values, because the money will be there from any number of teams. Boras works for Holliday, not the other way around. The union will not want Holliday selling out for some low ball bid, so if the Cards try to persuade him to retun next year, they will have to make a fair offer, commensurate with reasonable estimates of his earning power.
Freese and Allen Craig have similarities. Freese was a 5th year senior, Craig a 4th year senior sign. Both signed by teams that value the experience college players can obtain. Both have moved up smoothly in pro ball. The Cards selected Craig in the 8th round, the Padres selected Freese in the 9th. Craig was known as a hitter at UCal Berkeley; the Cards tried him at 3B to maximize his value. It was an experiment worth trying. The Padres get credit for projecting Freese could field 3B, since there were doubts about his defense among scouts. The Cards must have continued to follow Freese and traded for him.
Freese started at the Univ of Missouri, transferred to Meramec CC, and then spent two years with PJ Walters at Univ of S. Alabama.
Given what Pineiro and DeRosa could likely make out in the open market, I’d be okay with seeing the Cardinals pass on both. There are probably deals that make more sense to had out there than re-signing either. Heck, let Ankiel walk, let Glaus walk, let Khalil walk, and show Wellemeyer the door without blinking.
Seeing Holliday walk would be pretty crushing at this point, however.
Brian, I’d be tickled pick if Freese can win the position next year, but if he can’t then Craig should be given a legitimate opportunity to win the job. Mather will take all year to recover his swing so he’s not an option. If David or Allen can take the reigns and put up .275 avg, 20 hr and 80 rbi numbers I’d be happy. If Craig has to win the left field job well that’s not a problem either, but I assume he will make the team as a supersub regardless.
As for Holliday, well my personal opinion is that he will go where the riches take him. Brian’s right (as if there was any doubt) in that if Boston doesn’t sign Bay they will most assuridly go after Matt, which in turn could bring the Yankees into the bidding just to keep him out of Boston. The Angels of course will be a major player. Grab a butterfly net because there’s going to be a lot of money flying around. Translation: he’s gone, but hopefully not until after he’s given us another world series victory. *Note: Bay has turned down a sizeable contract from the Red Sox, which can only mean he’s not happy there or he’s trying to up the ante.
Chris there is a difference in Lohse and Pineiro. Joel has been at a higher level before and this year he was convinced to trust his more effective pitches more often. Same talent, but trusting a different philosophy. Lohse has always been a #5 starter who had one great year in 2008 and cashed in on it quickly. It’s really unfair to judge his performance this season based on his plethora of unfortunate injuries. He could very well come back next year and be an excellent 4th starter. Pineiro on the other hand, thanks to Duncan’s master plan for him, has turned himself into a legitimate # 2 starter. Having said that, he wouldn’t be the first player to overachieve in their contract year and then fall flat on their faces the very next season. So you’re right in that he’s probably a gamble and that he’s probably priced himself out of St.Louis, however, you can never have too much quality starting pitching. After all, what do you think has gotten us this far this season. Our small-o ffense (with the acception of Albert of course) has kept too many well pitched games close this year. Even if Joel doesn’t reach this year’s numbers I’m sure that Carp, Waino, Pinata and Lohse would again be a formidable rotation; with the 5th starter being one of Smoltz, Jaime Garcia, Hawksworth or Boggs. My money’s on Jaime ‘El Torodore’ Garcia.
Thanks for the support Nut, but you know, we just might not end up with any of them.