By Ian Walton
I for one am quite pleased with the Cardinals’ signing of John Smoltz. Now granted, I also happen to be a Vikings fan, so I may simply be in an optimistic mood when it comes to the arms of old men, but I do have a few reasons to be hopeful.
Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. The Red Sox didn’t just release Smoltz on a whim. The man does sport a 8.32 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP behind a fully justified 2-5 record on the season. Dustin Mattison summed up his weaknesses quite well over at The Cardinal Nation when displaying his line against left-handed hitters (.440/.490/.758) and his line when facing batters the second time through a lineup (.388/.397/.657). These numbers scream situational right-handed relief, so despite his initial role as a fifth starter, we all know where he will end up by the time the post-season rolls around should the Cardinals qualify. And heck, with their play of late, why shouldn’t they?
Let’s take a look at Smoltz’ performances start by start this season:
| Date | IP | ER | K | BB | HR | H |
| 6/25 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6/30 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7/6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 7/11 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7/20 | 5.2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 7/26 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 7/31 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 8/7 | 3.1 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| Total | 40 | 37 | 33 | 9 | 8 | 59 |
His strikeout to walk ratio seems right on pace with his career numbers at approximately 3:1. His problems clearly lie in his hits and home runs allowed and those numbers clearly point to some bad luck. Opposing hitters have swung to a tune of a .343 batting average propped up by a .386 batting average with balls in play. Over his career, Smoltz has given up steady .237 and .287 marks respectively so things should start to even out soon.
I can offer no explanation for why he gave up so many home runs in his last four starts after giving up none in the previous four, but a move to Busch certainly won’t hurt in that department. I can offer an explanation for why he gave up nearly half of his walks this season in his final start, however. Take a look at his release points from the view of the catcher:
The green points were thrown for balls and it is very clear to see that at least seven of them were due to faulty mechanics. I didn’t see this wildness in any of his other starts, so hopefully it is something that Dave Duncan can address in short order.
Smoltz holds a career ERA of 3.32 and a career WHIP of 1.18 and I don’t see anything to suggest that his complete inability to match those numbers in 2009 is due to anything other than bad luck and some poor mechanics in his final start that caused him to be designated for assignment.
The Cardinals have made a number of mid-season additions that have really helped to spark their team to new heights and I see no reason to doubt this addition either. On the other hand, I do see every reason to question the Red Sox’ patience after seeing them recently acquire the mighty Alex Gonzalez (.209/.255/.295) following their dump trade of Julio Lugo (.307/.367/.443).
Thanks for financing my team’s playoff run, Boston!
Release point graph courtesy of Brooks Baseball.
There must be compelling reason that both Tony and Mark had lobbied John to join the Cardinals. The mere presence of the Hall of Famer and veteran competitor in a Cardinal uniform not only enhances the morale of the players, but also adds to the growing feeling among fans that something special is happening this year! No, he will likely not last as a fifth starter, because of his weakness against left-handed hitters and because of his patented ineffectiveness the second time through a line-up, but I would much rather see him start than Wellemeyer! Indeed, he will likely wind-up in situational, spotty relief roles, but I’d feel much more secure with him going to mound than Motte! On many fronts, this is a positive move!
Fully agreed, CFS57!
Lets not be so quick to say Smoltz won’t last as a fifth starter. He won’t have to be very good to be better than the alternatives.
Whether he can cut it as the fifth starter or not, there isn’t a whole lot of need for a fifth starter for the rest of the year. Unless someone goes down with injury, Smoltz will end up in the bullpen at least part time.
Tony has been putting the weak 5th starter between Carp and Wainy in the rotation so the bullpen will be rested before and able to recover after. 1-5-2-3-4. Smart move. I haven’t noticed whether other managers do the same thing.
Also the timing was right in having the aces start the first and last series games. Worked to perfection in LA.
[...] as psyched about the Cardinals’ signing of Smoltz as I am, but here’s my defense of my position: Looking into John Smoltz, circa 2009 | The Cardinal Nation blog __________________ Occasional Contributor to The Cardinal [...]
My hat is off to blingboy’s insight. The thought had never occurred to me, that Tony was strategically placing the 5th starter in between our two aces. And Brian is certainly correct; the Dodger series was critical (more so than the 3-out-of-4 that we took at home) and certainly called for our aces at each end!
I read that the Sox just released Chris Duncan. The Lugo deal just keeps getting better for them, huh?
It was about the money…………….. Chris just greased the garbadge shute. He advanced the approach to Boston giving them a brief shield from the accusation that they got nothing for 13+. Thoughful of Mo, but revealing a painful truth that CD had no value here either…………….for a long time in my opinion.
There are rumors that Dave Duncan’s resentment over the situation may affect his future with the organization following the season.
If I was the GM of an big league club, I might consider signing Chris in hopes of luring Daddy, too…
I believe there was an understanding on the re/up of Dave concerning Chris.
Tony and Dave will take the soft exit, temtporary retirement, if they don’t get into the second round of the playoffs. There have been a number of understanding reached between Mo /BD and T/D concerning “the new direction” the team has taken I’ll wagger. The business plan hasn’t changed. The pathway has a few new switch backs is all.
Brian, how can anyone forget Chris’ sensational Rookie season? While there is certainly no place for him on any major league roster at present, we’ve certainly got room and patience for him to mend at Memphis (even if it takes a couple of years). His potential value is even more meaningful if we are not able to sign Matt and Rick during the off-season. If steroids are suspected, as the reason for Chris’ 2007 success, one must bear in mind that “performance enhancers” only add power, but do nothing for hand-eye coordination. His Cardinal teammates liked him and thought that he had potential. Nepotism; schmepotism! He did not rise through the ranks because his father is our first class Pitching Coach: He is a member of the Cardinal nation and certainly deserves a minor league contract.
It’s probably still far too early to drop an I told you so, but nine strikeouts, no walks, three hits, and no earned runs in only five innings does bring a small grin to my face.
I’m with you, Nutlaw; John’s spectacular debut warmed the cockles of my heart too! However, the future Hall of Famer exceeded my expectations: In five shut-out innings, who would have expected only 3 hits, no walks and 9 strikeouts!?
Our offense was unable to put the opponent away despite numerous chances. It looked like we were always playing for the big inning instead of just trying to tack on a run here and there. Lots of guys failed to hit a sac fly when it would have meant a run. Its good that we can win even when we dont execute well. Its also probably good that Ryan learned a lesson about barehanding now rather than later.
The Lugo at bat was a no no, you’re right about that BB. Watching so many runs scored by these other teams is discouraging. We need to have the best record with home field if we are to have a reasonable chance in the playoffs. That way we avoid the Phillies 3 left handers in the first round. We need Colorado at home in a short series, and then the Phillies opening at home to survive. If we catch the Dodgers and then the Phills at home………not so good.
Smoltz’s role needs to be reconsidered after his jaw dropping start and Lohse DL. Its going to be to late in the season to realistically expect Lohse to get it together. Assuming a quality start against the Nats, including getting lefties out, we are looking at John in the rotation for the duration. The post-season role would probably be emergency start/long relief. Which means we still need a situational righty. (Lohse??) Nobody on the 40 man has stepped up, so Mo has to pull another rabbit out of the hat. If he does, Holy Cow!
Plausible BB. Smoltz executed his pitches very well. Considering the variety, thats a lot to ask. When he dialed in his full fastball, 93 or so, you could sense the risk factor in his demeanor. His health and confidence is everything. It fulfills an important need. I think Tony realizes that to risk a starting roll with 6+ starts could jeopardize the real needed function in the bullpen.
The Lohse injury isn’t going to keep him from throwing as did the forearm strain. He will return strong. I think the Smoltz success will heighten his intensity. Keep this in mind. Colorado will shell Smoltz. That creates problems late in that they might also be a playoff pairing. That gentle breaking pitch that he threw for a first pitch strike so often will be well recognized by scouts. Good teams will pressure him at the velocity median he is comfortable with right now.. Tony/Dave will try to create a successful role for everyone I think. I loved the splitter too, but it was never thrown for a strike. As Beckett can give up 5 hrs, Smoltz is like to be taken deep under pressure. Tony has to shape a role that he can rely on. Right now he looks good starting Smoltz because he is needed. He will be very cautious.
Well said, Westy. Let us hope Tony will be able to use him as he wants rather than as he must, whatever it may turn out to be.
It will be interesting to see if Tony gives Smoltz that start against Colorado as we will have fresh arms from Memphis by then. Hopefully our lead in the Division will hold up so Tony can experiment with finding the post-season roles.
Make that Milwaukee not Colorado.