While Matt Holliday’s hitting surge as a Cardinal is good for the present, will it damage his chances of remaining with the club in 2010 and beyond?
Having covered the Colorado Rockies since its inception, the Rocky Mountain News’ Tracy Ringolsby remains well connected with the club and its players, current and past. Writing for FOXSports.com, the Baseball Hall of Fame writer notes that agent Scott Boras is likely in for a busy weekend as six of the remaining 18 unsigned first round draft picks are his clients.
Down the page was a tidbit that could be both concerning and encouraging to St. Louis Cardinals fans.
Revisiting Matt Holliday’s departure from Colorado and his trade to Oakland, Ringolsby noted the Rockies’ failed bid of four years, $72 million with a reminder that his representatives (read that the Boras Corporation) were looking for a “Mark Teixeira-type deal”.
As a footnote, the Yankees first baseman and Boras extracted a commitment of $180 million for eight seasons from New York after jilting the Boston Red Sox.
Looking at Holliday’s results with St. Louis cause one to wonder if he isn’t playing himself back into Teixeira’s price range. His .493/.523/.813 line as a Cardinal is superb. Even though his lofty numbers are not sustainable, Holliday’s impact is indisputable.
In terms of the past, this was Ringlosby’s summary: “Holliday had enjoyed his career with Colorado, and then got a wake-up slap in the face when he was dealt to Oakland.”
Holliday’s poor play with the A’s this season gave critics further ammunition in asserting he was an over-inflated product of Coors Field. Ringolsby offered this quote to help explain the outfielder’s substandard stint with Oakland:
“I think the Rockies looked for the most miserable place possible and dealt him there,” said one (Rockies) teammate.
But here is the quote that may offer St. Louis fans hope:
“Now that he has escaped and landed in St. Louis, there are friends of Holliday who think he will be more aggressive in directing his pending free-agency negotiations.”
Of course, the definition of “more aggressive” remains to be seen, but it could signal intent on Holliday’s part to not sit back and let Boras play his hand.
I am not going to revisit Boras’ history, as I have done that adequately already. Suffice it to say that in a vast majority of the time, 88% by my research, Boras’ free agents not only test the market, they usually change clubs, ala Teixeira.
Optimistic Cardinals fans happily point to the exception to the rule – Kyle Lohse, who by most accounts ordered Boras to settle with the Cards last fall rather than take the risk of being disadvantaged in free agency again.
Lohse was on firm ground as Boras had turned down three years, $21 million for the pitcher to return to the Phillies in 2008. When Boras found no other takers the rest of the winter, Lohse had to accept a cut-rate one-year, $4.5 million deal with the Cardinals with two weeks remaining in spring training. Fast forwarding to when the market contracted last winter, both Boras and Lohse ultimately won with his four-year, $41 million deal signed last September.
Yet other Boras clients have left the Cardinals, such as 2006 post-season star Jeff Weaver. Despite Weaver wanting to return to St. Louis, Boras took him to a disastrous stint in Seattle for more money after turning down St. Louis’ offer.
Perhaps Holliday has wizened to the realities of the business of baseball as a result of the failed negotiations with Colorado and the subsequent bad experience in Oakland.
On the other hand, Holliday’s strong play and the looming spectre of Albert Pujols’ contract extension could mean that with every hit, Holliday further prices himself out of St. Louis’ willingness to pay. While the early vibes from ownership have been positive, there is a lot of ground to be covered before any celebrations can be planned.
In the meantime, Cardinals fans can only wait and wonder.
The best (only) way to know how much we can afford to pay Holliday is to know how much we are going to have to pay Albert.
A most valid point, bb, however there is a major timing mismatch. Pujols doesn’t need to be addressed for two more years and Holliday is immediate. I think Boras is going to insist on more years, but if I was the Cardinals, I might try to get Holliday for two years and deal with both players’ long-term futures around the same time. Maybe they could rack up two or three world championships together in the interim…
Last November, long before they made the trade for Holliday, I stuck my neck out and took a look at what I thought it might take to sign both Pujols and Holliday. At the time, I suggested 4/$84 for Holliday and 6/$167 for Albert (or 7/$190 with a 2018 option). That included $9M over the next two years to raise Albert’s salary on his current contract above Holliday’s annual amount in the first two seasons of his new deal.
In other words, I think the idea of having Holliday make more than Albert’s $16 million the next two seasons could present a problem. When that looked like it could have been the case with Carpenter a few years back as they were bidding for Jason Schmidt (major bullet avoided), they extended Carp early. Will it happen again with Pujols and would he accept now? Who knows?
I do know that Mo is going to have a very, very busy winter…
Astronomical numbers. If you buy my logic, it is a potential quarter of a billion dollar commitment to just two players.
One thing to remember. Walter J. was the man in 06, BD/Mo is in the box now. Scotty has his guard up now to once used tactics, and also the illusions of the ever changing market place on his side. BD/Mo will have there own designs. No one here is sure of their intentions. BD still has his business plan. He isn’t very far off of it at this point, and I would speculate he won’t be going far. His change of course doesn’t mean a change of heart.
Scotty will be looking at BD’s apparent vulnerabilities, measuring how big of a piece of the Albert pie he can slice. Like it or not, BD will play that same card. He will play Holiday against Albert and you will never know his true aim. Only the publics apparent perceptions will guide him. Example: the higher the publicized asking price for Holiday, excepted or denied, will effect the public sentiment and thus guilting or influencing the Albert negotiations one way or another. There is a possibility that we end up with Holiday and a bunch of prospects from an Albert trade. (unlikely) Holiday wanted to leave the Rockies. A brief stint with the A’s showed him how difficult life can be. BD will play the impending Albert negotiations against giving him a mega offer. This will all be done before December, maybe before October. Game on.
Despite all the talk, has Mo’s regime really been markedly different in terms of strategy than Jocketty’s was? Mo learned the ropes under Jocketty and the same ownership group was in place.
They were pressured into the DeRosa move by the public. After the All Star game, they changed tact. If the Lugo money isn’t there, they don’t get Holiday. All their moves have a function and have turned of with a positive spin so far. DeWitt is a lucky man.
Glauss, Greene and Welly going FA frees up $22+Mil.
While I learn with fascination from the “blogging heads” (“talking bloggers”?) about front office strategy and player-agent decisions, this 60 year old man cannot separate his naive emotions from the wonder that attracted him to his beloved Cardinals 52 summers ago. Against logic and reason, I yet yearn for Matt (and also for Albert, two years hence) to manifest a sweet, Stanley Frank heart and spend the rest of a Musial-like career with St. Louis. The heart and soul of the St. Louis Cardinals could use the company…
In this chaotic, corrosive world, those might just be the qualities that stop the meaningless greed in sports salariesC57. Some humility for the loyal working man. There is a problem here though. BD has lived a life of questionable moral decisions in my opinion. In truth, as long as he plays fast and loose, I can overlook his private life. In the end though, there is bound to be an element of deceit in his business dealings. Baseball has always been that way though. The pretense of 25 million dollar a year salaries is a joke. But the idea of 118 million dollars in public subsidies to his private business is also a joke. Its America.
Impossible to figure where Lohse is at. Looks a little more present that last out, but looks to be throwing up a few prayers. Lets hope he begins using the breaking pitch early. Give him a cushion team. Common Ryan.
I have to applaud Richards. That guy was doing about everything a pitcher can do without have much of an arm. This is a kid that would be helped by a few Roids in the off season.
Thats a BS swing by Pujols with the bases juiced and a guy that just bounced two pitches. He is just not in this thing.
That throw make makes up for some of it.
Lohse starts the sixth by might not finish it. His last I’m sure. Perdomo looks interesting for a give away.
Thats either no confidence in you pen, or poor appraisal of your pitchers state of mind. I don’t start him in the 6th just to protect him for the break down.
…yes and San Diego’s weak line-up continued to make mincemeat of our mediocre Lohse. This is being written at the point where Lohse is lifted for another mediocre (Reyes), with the hope that Albert will decide to get “in this thing” and that our mighty line-up will now rise to the occasion.
Tony must have his head in LA already. Lohse made some very good pitches, but he also made his characteristic ” just heave it” blunders over the plate. Even in a pinch, he won’t throw the 12/6 breaking pitch that he used against Howard. The mysteries.
After paying obeisance to mediocre pitching, our heaviest hitters were then silenced by a rookie who had been hitherto ineffective in this series! After cleaning-up the mess left by Reyes, Blake then went on to pitch 2 hitless innings, before yielding to Trever’s excellence in the 9th. Leave it to the bottom of our order to save the day: Enough cannot be said about our All-Star Catcher and about our Rookie of the Year!
There’s no doubt that Albert is ‘zoned out’ still. I guess he’s a little rusty after that extended vacation. Recent promotions have again drawn his attention away from baseball. I wish they’d just let the man focus on his job. Once Albert gets his groove on there will be no stopping us on the way to the WS title. Not with our top 3 pitchers and vastly improved offense. An overworked bullpen won’t be a problem in the playoffs. Go Cards!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Albert has a lot of stress off him now and that takes some getting used to. He looks like he’s enjoying the show instead of having to be a one man band every night.