It has been a busy week both for the St .Louis Cardinals and those of us who cover them. This post is an attempt to pull together some of my thoughts and organize them a bit.
Yesterday, I received a note from a long-time reader suggesting that someone needs to step up and give credit to the Cardinals “front office and management for giving the team a chance to win. They truly stood up.”
I have dissected the Matt Holliday trade, trying to define how the success of the deal could be quantified. At the time of the Mark DeRosa acquisition, I gave ownership kudos for backing up their infamous “dry powder” comments from the off-season.
Yet I haven’t really said much about the events of the last week in a comprehensive manner.
Let’s start with the Chris Duncan for Julio Lugo trade. It was unfortunate that the behind-the-scenes unhappiness of Duncan’s father became public. While pitching coach Dave Duncan usually gets praise from this corner for being a straight shooter, his comments critical of the front office would have been better left unsaid.
If Chris Duncan is truly healthy, his poor results on the field dictated something needed to be done. A fresh start with an American League club where he can both compete for time at first base and designated hitter may be best for him over the long haul. Instead, had Duncan remained around following the arrival of Matt Holliday, his opportunity for at-bats would have evaporated, anyway.
The acquisition of Lugo with little to no salary commitment for the next two months plus the entire 2010 season was a nice return for Duncan in my opinion, despite what Papa had to say. In the upcoming days, I am hoping to see more of the Lugo at second, Brendan Ryan at shortstop combo.
Jess Todd being selected by Cleveland as the player to be named later in the DeRosa trade was a tough pill to swallow, coming on top of losing Chris Perez in the same deal.
Stepping back however, the Cardinals believed that Todd, their Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2008, was better suited to a relief role than starting. Given their obvious need at the back end of the big league rotation, they would not have made the change with Todd had they not believed it was best.
Of all the commodities that make up a baseball team, arguably right-handed relievers may be the most plentiful. That is not to say that Perez and Todd may not be fine major leaguers for a long time, but they are more replaceable than most.
That brings me to the Holliday trade. My initial reaction was negative, as losing six years of Brett Wallace for two guaranteed months of Holliday alone seemed imbalanced – even before adding Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson to the Oakland A’s take.
Again looking at the bigger picture, the Cardinals did what they felt they needed to do to win this year. That could be expanded to include future years if DeRosa and Holliday can be re-signed.
At this point, anyone questioning the commitment of Cardinals ownership would seem to be on very shaky ground.
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Joe Strauss has consistently bashed those who follow the Cardinals minor league system, coining the derogative term “Hyperventilating Prospect Geek Fraternity” to describe them.
For awhile, that bothered me until I reminded myself that Strauss isn’t making this stuff up. He may very well be reflecting a strong line of feeling emanating from those with whom he deals regularly.
Real tension remains in the organization, but how much is too much? By definition, when one faction is missioned with “winning now” while another is to build for the future, tradeoffs have to be made.
Perhaps one such “HPGF” member is Erik Manning, well-known from his past work at Future Redbirds. Blogging for FanGraphs, Manning expresses disappointment over the recent trades, saying they “gutted” and “razed” St. Louis’ farm system.
I can understand where he is coming from, though as noted above, I am going to let the season play out before second-guessing such an aggressive set of moves clearly intended to win now.
What bothered me, and apparently Rob Neyer of ESPN, too, is Manning’s use of the trades to attack Tony La Russa.
Manning asserts the deals were made to “assuage” the manager. Apparently, he feels that because La Russa made public comments about liking Holliday as a player, it translates into ownership rolling over for him.
The reason Manning states is to convince La Russa into staying in St. Louis beyond this season. Never once was it noted that the Cardinals are a better team right now as a result. Never once was it suggested that a more competitive team is what Albert Pujols has said will be his biggest factor in deciding whether to re-sign with the Cardinals.
I just don’t buy Erik’s line of thinking.
Commitments to win come at a cost. We all understand that. If Manning sees the price to have been too high from his vantage point as a prospect-watcher, I can accept that, too.
But dredging up La Russa’s past squabbles with Scott Rolen and Adam Kennedy seem to be a huge stretch. Does anyone really believe that the trades this July would have been unnecessary if Rolen and Kennedy were still Cardinals?
Further, blaming La Russa for Rolen’s issues with the Cardinals organization is a gross oversimplification. The genesis of Rolen’s problems was with the medical advice and treatment prescribed by the club’s physicians. The other issues were a by-product of Rolen’s unhappiness.
Who knows all the details behind Kennedy’s problems? Not being in the clubhouse every day or in many cases never, means we may be tempted to try to draw firm conclusions from snippets of data. Team chemistry cannot be measured by WAR or UZR.
But anyway, what does it matter? Rolen and Kennedy are irrelevant to Holliday and DeRosa, irrelevant to here and now.
As Neyer concludes, “What I’m saying is that La Russa, after 2,516 wins, may have earned the benefit of the doubt on personnel matters.”
Manning closes with a stern warning: “I can only fear what will happen to the Cardinals if they keep him (La Russa) around longer.”
Who knows? They might even win another World Series.
Well said Brian. All futures are still untold, but I could care less as long as we have a competitive team, which it now is. We have a mole in the training room by the looks of the betting lines for tonight.
The only problem with the Holliday trade bashers is where would Wallace have played? By all accounts he was not a big league third baseman. He can’t play first because Pujols is there. I guess he could have been made an outfielder and provider a bigger log jam than the Cardinals already have, and the NL doesn’t have the DH rule. So to me he seemed like a really good trading chip for the Cards at best.
Welcome, chappy. I am not among those who think Wallace is not an MLB third baseman. I have seen him play and think he is serviceable. I think it is telling that Oakland believes he is a third baseman, too, and are playing him there as well.
Having said that, if Holliday helps the Cards win the World Series this year, then I will have no complaints whatsoever.
Bet Manny gets bood hard tonight.
Lohse has given them 6 inning and the lead. He has no control. He is just making it up. Mid 80′s fastball. If they send him out for the 7th, they have no clue.
The trades cannot be analyzed properly without knowing management’s commitment to future payrolls. If they are willing to pony up $105-$110 million for the next couple of years and even more beyond that when Pujols reupps then the prospects won’t be missed. If they bump payroll up then it was a short sighted move.
I am persuaded that the Cardinal ownership is committed to winning and that the latest action towards that goal not only pleased Tony and not only pleased Albert, but also pleased the team and pleased an overwhelming majority of the fans. Yes, it was certainly a bold gamble: We may not go to the World Series, we may not be able to keep Matt and Wallace may go on to star in the American League. On the other hand, if the deal was not done, we would likely not even make the play-offs this year, it is likely that Albert would have become even more demoralized and it is highly unlikely that Wallace would ever get us to the Series. I am thrilled about our awesome line-up and the prospect of a four pitcher starting rotation. Our middle relievers need development and Wellemeyer simply must GO (he can neither start nor relieve)!
Thats solid CC. Love is all powerful, but the act of love isn’t just blind, selfless reproductive gyrations.
DeWitt acted emotionally, but strategically when he changed to these new tactics. I love the emotion everyone is experiencing. Get ready to be porked probably
I’m kidding a little there. DeWitt had a Scrooge like experience over the All Star break. He could see he would be vilified if he let Albert go the way I believe he had planned. He saw an opportunity to get Holiday without breaking his business plan, and he did. He will not negotiate with Holiday of DeRosa after the season ends. He will however make them fair offers in the Cardinal Style. What happens will depend on this. He is giving himself a chance to beat Boras again, and then out maneuver Pujols agent. One way or another thats the business. He is playing the roll of sportsman now. If we can keep him at it, the sky is the limit.
I will say this, he is winning the battle right now of public opinion right now. I say this because Albert’s inability to protect his hands shows me he is really distracted right now. Humility will follow hopefully and with that maybe a more realistic valuation of his talents than just the greatest player ever hype. That probably crossed BD mind when he went after the charismatic Holiday. He will offer Matt 4/60 is my guess.
Welly threw a few good pitches 57, but the “Pitch” was just a prayer that often follows a struggling personality. He is in pretty bad shape. Lohse was having a religious experience out there tonight with the number of prayers he threw.
These trades are a complicated, murky topic and some defy clear explanations. As a result, there is probably some existential confusion within the fan base (including bloggers) about what is going on.
I will try to get back to this thread, when I get a chance. For now, a few clear thoughts: Chris Duncan had to get booted off the roster. The Cards were not unfair to him, but Fate can be horribly unfair to any player no matter how bad or good they are (just ask Juan Encarnacion). Chris had to go. When JS gives up on somebody, then its time to go. Mo and DeWitt agreed. Boston agreed too, sending Chris to AAA. Its where he belongs, for now.
Two, Lugo is only a gain.
Three, if a team has to trade for a player from the Indians and Mike Shapiro, then it has to be willing to PAY the PIPER. The Cards decided they had to get DeRosa, to make up for the losses of Glaus and Freese. Shapiro is going to MAKE YOU PAY for talent. So we had to give up two Faberge eggs, Perez and Todd. This is brutal, because these kids will do well in future. Any team would love to unload a DeRosa for 11 years of control over two young studs. But the sad truth is, the Cards had to pay the piper or concede 2009. Its that simple. Its not that Mo is a dummy, but sometimes Fate boxes you in. When Glaus, Freese, and Mather crapped out, we had to add somebody or give up. Its a tough call, either way. But baseball can involve truly unpleaant choices.
Four, Mr. Manning is young. To give him some due, Erik can generate some good insights and think for himself, always worth saluting. Yet “stern” opinions about TLR sound laughably pompous.
Five, the Holliday trade tends to be murkier to explain. The confusion starts with why do teams like the As and Cards give up three players for the short term control of Holliday? There is zero chance he would re-sign with the As, so for the As Matt was obtained to help their 09 lineup and either to be traded or to obtain compensatory draft picks.
The Cards jumped in and grabbed Holliday for just a couple of months, for some promising prospects. If I am the As, I like unloading Holliday for these three guys.
Whats in it for the Cards? Holliday helps the pennant drive in 2009. I dislike the idea everything hinges on the Cards winning the WS in 2009, since I dont find that persuadive. A second potential benefit is the Cards pay the piper and sign Holliday to a long term deal, because unlike Mr. Walton, I think the Cards are able to do business with Mr. Boras, sometimes. But if Holliday leaves after 2009, we get two compensatory draft picks, to make up for Morty and Peterson. Is it ok to trade Wallace for Holliday for 2 months and a chance of his reupping? This is what Mo had to decide and I can live with it.
I agree with Brian that Wallace may be able to handle 3B.
The problem: to get talent, you have to give up talent.
The Cards decided to add talent and told their scouts to find more.
Six, it sounds like Strauss (like Bernie) likes to disparage prospects. For years, the Cards have had sub-par minor league output. There must be veterans of the once constipated farm system available to interview with Strauss to spin defenses of their ineffective trackrecords. Its great the Cards cleaned house of some of these negative nellies.
TLR had a difference of opinion with Scott Rolen. Not knowing the details, I would support Rolen’s side of this disagreement. I can back Rolen’s side, without thinking TLR is ineffective as a manager.
TLR is a smart baseball guy and he has a lot of credibility with Bill DeWitt. The Cards try to do some things that Tony recommends. This has included seeking Jason Bay or Brian Fuentes or a reliever with the Phils (forget his name) or Matt Holliday.
Lots of fans thought going after Holliday last winter for Schu, Boggs, and Luddy was too much to give up, in part because some see Holliday as a Coors field creation. Tony does not see him as a Coors field star, so I have to trust Tony on this one.
If Dewitt is willing to offer big bucks to try to resign Holliday, then the Golden Rule applies. The guy with the gold gets to make the decision. If DeWitt is willing to spend big bucks on Holliday, its his choice and he gets to decide how to spend them.
DeWitt decided to revive and upgrade scouting and development. If he then decides to give up Wallace toward Holliday, he gets to choose. I might hesitate to do this, but its not my money or business, so I have to defer to the guys who are putting money on the line. Holliday is a pretty good player and his retention might help with retaining Albert.
I do not see how differences of opinion between Rolen and TLR or Adam Kennedy and TLR has any possible connection to a personnel decision to trade for Holliday. Erik would lose me with this line of reasoning.
I think the trade for Holliday is to give Albert lineup backing for some years to come and we will try to retain Holliday. Scottie B the superagent is not going to sign cheap on Holliday, but DeWitt gets to decide how to spend his money.
You misrepresent my position. The facts clearly show that the two sides are able to do business sometimes. Whether or not Holliday will sign just because Kyle Lohse wouldn’t let himself get abused again is another question. Some Cardinals fans (not you necessarily) point to Lohse as if that is the Boras way of doing business, ignoring the huge body of examples where the very opposite occurs. Until Holliday is re-signed as a Cardinal, I will go with the assumption that he will walk and wait to be proven wrong. The odds are clearly on my side while the emotion is on the other side.
One thing that is hard for fans is the added complexity of money. They want a great team for very little money. Who would not? So fans can object to shelling out money to retain Pineiro after 2007. In retrospect, since LaDuncan turned Joel into a star, the recruitment of Joel by Mo in October 2007 does not look too bad now. But who could have predicted the improvement in Pineiro? Not me.
Trading Dan Haren for Mulder was a doozie mistake. TLR has stood up and claimed it was his idea. So sometimes, Tony’s views do not work out, because it turned out Mulder’s shoulder was more frayed than Tony could know. If Holliday disappoints or leaves town after this season, then it could work out that trading Wallace was a mistake. But the Cards felt they had to gamble on acquiring and trying to retain Holliday maybe in order to try to retain Albert. Looked at this way, I can’t say this decisions sounds wrong.
Agreed, Jumbo. What appears to be a good decision at the time can lead to a bad trade over time. The two are not mutually exclusive.
For example I was discussing the Mulder deal with Derrick Goold last weekend. He defended it, pointing out that Mulder contributed to the 2006 World Champs. I countered with a view that we would have to assess the difference in Mulder’s benefit and what Haren would have provided had he remained. While Derrick agreed philosophically, neither of us had a way to measure it. So it was just an interesting academic discussion…
“Sometimes” is a weasely qualifier, chosen by Jumbo. If Mr. Walton can accept the term, then we seem in agreement.
I would not find it possible to agree that Lohse “wouldnt let himself get abused again.” We paid the piper on Lohse and he did not come cheap. We also paid the piper when signing Boras client Ankiel as an amateur back in 97. Or Boras’s amateur Hawksworth in 2002. We agreed on a salary for Ankiel this spring rather than let an arbitrator decide. The Cards and Boras know how to reach agreements. Sometimes.
“Until Holliday is resigned, I will go with the assumption he will walk.” I interpret the Holliday trade as the Cards showing willingness to compete to retain Holliday after this season. Now whether they can indeed retain him, remains to be seen. You suggest the odds are he will walk. I cannot disagree with these odds and at some dollar value for Holliday, the Cards should drop out. On the other hand, the odds indicated from past evidence can be swayed by the intentions of teams about the future. This is why there can sometimes be surprising departures from odds, like the Lohse deal.
Jumbo, what you are pointing out is that there is a huge gray area between “always” and “never”, two words I avoid using like the plague.
It can be hard to “measure” deals. The teams have to have ways of trying to do so, but it has got to be hard even for them, given unpredictabilities and injuries.
I never liked the Mulder deal because Haren had a very strong minor league trackrecord so looked promising, while Mulder slumped in late 2004. I would not have had the guts to go for Mulder.
But the Cards had been in the 04 World Series. And they had a new ballpark under construction and wanted to reward the fans by winning a Series. So they gambled on Mulder, because they loved his sinker. One of the risks of investing a lot in one pitcher (Mulder) is he then suffers an injury and you are out a lot (Haren). This bad thing happenned. Fate can be unkind.
One reason trades can be hard to evaluate is they may be linked to other personnel strategies of teams, though this cannot be known clearly. A few years from now, all anyone will do is look at the trade of 3 prospects for Holliday, look at the subsequent statistics of the 4 players, and label the deal smart or dumb. We outsiders have to look at trades in this kind of neat and tidy isolation, because it gets too complicated or conjectural to guess at connected decisions or strategies that may still be inside the minds of GMs.
In the minds of Mo and DeWitt, trying to re-sign Albert Pujols has to loom large. They have to do their utmost to resign Albert, because the fan base expects them to do their utmost. A lot of things have to revolve around trying to re-sign Albert and that will not be cheap. Albert says he wants to compete every year, so its goodbye to Faberge eggs, hello to Holliday and DeRosa. Albert wants to win now, not just Tony.
Albert wants to win, sure, but he must also wants to play where he is protected by a big enough bat to get more pitches to hit. Surely he is aware of the legendary career numbers he can put up in such a scenario. Assuming Mo and Dewitt also know this, isn’t it possible they see the price of re-signing Albert to include the price of signing Holliday, quite apart from the issue of winning. In other words, Albert will stay if there is a big enough bat behind him whether we are winning or not. This would mean signing Matt for sure, and Albert, and fielding whatever kind of team around them as we can. Maybe the objective is to keep the greatest player of the era in St. Louis, secondary consideration is to win.
So I seem to have to have reached the explanation on the Holliday trade that works best for me. The Cards have been saying in recent years that they are building from the bottom up and they seem to be sincere. Last summer, they would trade no Faberge eggs, but this season they are trading away prospects to beat the band. But its still the same ownership and GM. I dont quite buy the explanation that this year we really want to win, so by implication we did not really want to win last year.
Why the seeming change in trading young players? It could be in keeping with a campaign to retain Albert. If Albert wants to win now, then we need to win now. Albert is such an important guy for this business, everything it does has to revolve around Mr. Pujols.
It is a more certain thing to put a big bat behind Albert going forward than it is to be able to win beyond 2010, so that would be the better strategy to keep him. That means we will do what it takes to sign Matt. Not signing him after having traded away the farm is the surest way to not keep albert. Mr. Boras knows this too. Ouch.
It only makes sense if a Holiday deal is in the bag.
It would be helpful for Cards fans to cheer Mr. Holliday and make him feel appreciated. This likes a Rolen like trade. We trade three guys for a chance to signing a star to a long term deal. Everybody gets a couple of months to get to know one another and to consider whether it seems like a good match for the future. Then if all were to go well, Daddy DeWitt pulls out the old checkbook, because in the major leagues, sometimes you have to pay the piper.
bb: I do not think a Holliday deal is “in the bag.” There is some risk of him getting a bigger offer from another team, but working in favor of the Cards is the sour economy may take some energy out of the free agent market.
The Cardinals and Boras have negotiated many times, through the years. They each have guys with green eye shades who can run the numbers on super computers somewhere and figure out a ballpark sense of a guy’s marketplace value. They can then argue over the number of years or over a few million per year. But an agreement is not impossible, because both sides know, the Cards are willing to pay the piper. Then its up to Holliday. If he wants the glamor of the coasts, he is not going to sign with the Cards for any amount of money. He hails from Oklahoma. Maybe he does not dislike the idea of playing in St Louis, for a fair market price.
The Cards drafted a high school pitcher with their first choice for the first time since 1978. They outbid everybody on a 16 year old kid out of the Dominican. If we did everything the same way, we would never change and these surprising realities would not have actually happenned. DeWitt is not driving his grand-daddy’s Oldsmobile any more. Oldsmobile went belly up, sad to say, so we are giving some test drives to new approaches.
But come what may, its likely that behind the scenes baseball still involves a lot of relationship cultivation. You can only recruit a guy like Holliday by getting to know him and his getting to know you, and then him deciding, of his own volition, where he wants to work in the years ahead. Money is important, but more than money also is going to be involved.
blingboy said:
blingboy, you hit the nail on the head. Boras may have lost on the Lohse deal, or so he thought at the time, but he has the hammer this time and will surely use it. All of the happy thoughts won’t change the reality. It will cost a lot to keep Holliday and even more to keep Albert.
Boras may have said he lost on the Lohse deal, I do not recall, but how bad can it feel to get a $42MM deal??
Boras is a fantastic actor and he plays up to the media, to give them things to write about, to keep himself in the news, so players want him. This is his business plan. He plays the jerk to protect their reputations, they get to be nice guys and cash in. Its hard to say that the Boras plan is a failure. It seems to work out.
So I do not necessarily buy into Lohse taking a too cheap deal, frustrating Scott’s hopes for him. This seems like a Boras spin to tout his own genius that has been undercut by the weak Kyle Lohse. I dont have to accept everything Scott wants me the fan to hear. I think Lohse is getting abundantly well paid, and Boras would not have taken the deal if it were not fair. Talking about Lohse being willing to sign cheap only provides cover to Boras reputation for always and only seeking the top dollar. If he violates this public image, then he has to come up with a cover story.
Jumbo, your fanciful spins are interesting but not always totally factual.
Boras was very clear when Lohse signed that it was done against his better judgment. Talking to others with inside information on the situation, I believe Boras was being honest. I could find the public quotes, but I don’t need to.
I know exactly what happened. Lohse forced the deal after Boras left him high and dry the winter prior when turning down three years from Philly. Yes, it worked out well for player and agent because the market crashed. Boras apparently did not see it coming either. That time he was lucky just as the year before he was not.
The Lohse situation has nothing to do with Holliday as hopeful fans wish it to be.
Nice thread guys. Jumbo, one last possibility you are ignoring. DeWitt signs Holiday and DeRosa, giving them enough to be satisfied. St. Louis is a nice place to play. I see that Holiday already senses that. 60 or 75 million is more money than you can spend anyway. If DeWitt does that, and Albert decides for some reason to test Free Agency, he will trade Albert at the appropriate, with the public looking on, for major talent. I think that is a strong position for DeWitt. He is going for that.
He is not going to wear any legendary jinx, like the RedSox Babe Ruth thing.
Boras lost control of the Lohse negotiation. It turned out to be the best thing that happened to him. He exploited that position all winter. 45,000 in Red in a powerful persuader on DeWitts side. If he can’t sign Holiday for a very “public aware” number, then the fault will be Boras, or even Albert’s unrevealed demands, or the economy. Just not BD’s. He knows what he’s doing. He is in the game.
So there seem to be four possibilities:
1. Holliday deal is in the bag
2. We get Holliday to overrule his agent and be reasonable
3. Boras takes advantage of the corner we are painted into and forces a mammoth contract for halliday if we want to keep albert
4. We can’t, won’t or don’t sign halliday, have little prospect for winning, and can’t keep Albert.
Brian, did Derrick Goold really suggest that Mark Mulder contributed to the 2006 World Series championship? A 6-7 record with an ERA of 7.14 in 17 starts is like saying somebody contributed drinks to the party by throwing up into the punch bowl.
DD, yes he said it but I wish you had used another analogy.
At least its after lunch
Seriously, my gut feeling is a Holliday deal is done and being kept quiet while Albert’s is being worked out. Nothing else makes a whole lot of sense
Sorry to have been so graphic but that’s basically what Mulder contributed to our 2006 season.
Besides, I thought it was an original phrase. It’s hard to top WCBS for that sort of stuff.
bb,
I see a fifth alternative. I see Boras working out a fair deal for his client. For some reason, the casual baseball fan sees Scott Boras as some sort of anti-Christ and the only agent to fit that bill.
blingboy, I wouldn’t give it 1 percent odds that Boras has agreed to a deal with the Cardinals this fast. In fact, I strongly doubt the Cards have even made an offer to Boras yet. I wouldn’t give that 2 percent odds. Whatever happens is going to take time.
BTW, DD is on the West Coast so he probably hadn’t had his lunch yet.
Brian, I was thinking the deal was cut as part of the trade and therefore could have been under discussion for a while, maybe a long while. If you are right , Bill and Mo must be made of solid brass to risk all on cutting a deal with Boras after putting him in such a strong position, being able to essentially control whether Albert stays or goes. DD17, fair for his client certainly, fair for the Cards is not his problem unless his client makes it so. But I agree he should not be vilified for doing his job.
BB, Boras is just a salesman. He will try to influence the market perception of Holiday, as will Mo/Bd. Most competition will likely will come within this division. Holiday will have seen all the possibilities. He isn’t that important of a player. His attitude and Charisma make him a big bonus here. Right now I see Albert sliding. That could go on into September. That is when extensions will come to the surface. DeWitt will not deal in the FA market place. Boras has warned Holiday of Mo’s tactics. That doesn’t mean he won’t listen and maybe influence his own future.
Westie: I agree Boras is a “salesman.” Not sure I can agree with “just” however.
Holliday is good, much like Jason Bay and Brian Fuentes. The Cards do not target riff raff.
Boras understands all, so does Mo. There are not a lot of secrets among these insiders.
Holliday is from Oklahoma, like Kozma, Ryan Franklin, Braden Looper, to say nothing of the late Jim Beauchamp. The Cards like some Sooners. Oklahoma is OK.
blingbloy: good point about villification of Boras.
Here is the deal: all agents are sharks or need to be, or they are not going to last long, owing to open competition.
Which agents have you ever heard of who approach teams and say, we love you, give our client less money? Answer: no one who is going to last very long as an agent.
Boras knows his job and is media savvy. Scottie laughs all the way to the bank after reporters buy into myths he would like them to accept. Its an irony that some who are most troubled by Boras stories are the very same folks who in this acceptance thereby most help Mr. Boras.
DD: I agree with your comment #1. Boras has some leverage,though it is nothing truly out of the ordinary, merely hyped. Some fans are troubled by players earning the right to choose their employer, hence Boras takes the rap, yet turns the media villiification to his own advantage. .
I also agree with DD17′s 5th idea that Boras might seek a fair deal for his man Hollliday, like he extracted one for Lohse.
blingbloy: I agree with you DeWitt and Mo have to be made of brass to trade 3 prospects for a couple of months of Holliday. This drove Erik around the bend.
They have to made of very strong material. The stakes are high and it takes tough guys to withstand the heat inside the kitchen
Westie: I agree with parts of your post #4 (15 posts higher). There are times when you worry me, because you start to sound insightful.
However, I dont agree about the trading Pujols stuff. BD is unlikely to do this, anymore than he re-signs Musial and trades him. If Pujols walks, this can be his choice, but it would be difficult for the owner of the Cards to trade him, because the fans will not be pleased.
Michael Jordan’s last season in the NBA, the Bulls paid him $30MM or so. His next contract will make Pujols one of the highest paid guys in MLB, just like Jordan was in his day. If Albert is the best or near the best player, then he will receive an equally elite salary. Its just the way the salary system is geared to work.
BD would like to extend Pujols the first day Albert is willing to sign. Does Albert want to re-sign, if Chris Duncan is batting cleanup? Simple answer: no. So we had to land an elite hitter to bat behind Albert. It gets complicated because Holliday is on the verge of free agency. This gives him great leverage, so we will have to pay him handsomely, a fair deal, Dizzy and I would term it.
I also term it, paying the piper. If you own a ML team, you have to pay star veteran players amazing amounts of money. If you can’t cope with this situation, like the Buschs seemed to find hard sometimes, then you may need to sell your share of the team and do something else in life.
Regarding Brian’s post 16 or so up…….
The great Prussian military historian Clausewitz memorably referred to the Fog of War. (The trivial JS would refer to the Fog of Life, to include times of peace as well as times of war.) In other words, there are always things beyond our awareness.
For his part, Donald Rumsfeld said, something like, there are things we know we know; there are things we know we do not know; and then there are things we do not even know we do not know. Rummy’s trilogy is the human condition in terms of understanding, no matter what the topic.
It seems to me that you, Mr. Walton, have a good appetite for facts and this is an admirable thing to have, IMO. But sometimes it is hard to know how to interpret the facts that are known to us. I do not doubt you that Boras blamed having to sign on Kyle Lohse being so sensitive or something. Boras has to blame somebody other than himself, because he has a carefully cultivated professional image as the meanest shark in the seas that he Boras must uphold. Since you may believe in his image, therefore it stands to reason that you believe in his alibi. You are a nice guy and your allegiance to apparent facts does you proud. JS, on the other hand, must be cynically more skeptical of what Mr. Boras says. I cannot say I am proud about this failing on my part, only it is what it is.
Now, back to Erik’s diatribe theory about TLR screwing everything up and needing to retire.
The reason Erik thinks this is he is hunting for an explanation that can explain strange facts. Erik likes prospects, so it has to perplex and frustrate him when the Cards unload Wallace, Petersen, and Morty, apparently for 2 months of Holliday. I can understand him feeling this way. Erik probably buys into the DeWitt and Luhnow want to build from the bottom theory, so would never make a deal like this themselves. So who else to blame? How about old Tony? Bernie and Strauss are always writing about how Tony thinks the Cards need vets and should trade the Fabrege. This is the story they peddle and Erik can read their stories. So he comes to the conclusion, its all about old Tony, out of step with BD and Luhnow, while Mo must be a goofus who lets bad things happen. I don’t buy that interpretation.
Prospects are financial assets. The Cards must play a very high stakes poker game and be made of brass, because this is just the nature of the business. Its about 2009, but its also about the future shape of the team. The Cards want to compete to keep Albert happy and they need a stud hitter to bat cleanup. DeWitt, Mo, Tony and Luhnow are all on the same page.
“we love you, give us less money”, well said JS
Jumbo, reality is somewhere in between the negative scenario painted and the happy conclusion you draw. Public comments may generally indicate that everyone is on the same page (with the notable exclusion of the very negative and pointed reaction to the Duncan trade), but organizational tension remains. That is not surprising; at some level it is expected.
The relevant question is whether this tension is manageable and in a reasonable balance. Maybe yes and maybe no. A lot will be answered when La Russa and Holliday make decisions on their respective futures this coming fall and winter.
Brian, can you recall a year when everyone who’s healthy and on the 40-Man Roster has actually played in St Louis — except for one pitcher? Matt Scherer?
(I know the “40″ is actually only 38 at present, but Todd and Mortensen were there before trades)
(On the DL: Glaus, Garcia, Mather — and you’d have to guess that all 3 of them would have played in StL this year, if healthy)
What a year…
ArR, that is a very astute observation about the roster. No, I don’t recall such a year, but would have to go back to verify.
What it tells me is that Mo and TLR have done a very good job balancing needs with available bodies.
Don’t count out the three DLed guys who haven’t appeared just yet. I spoke with Joe Mather last night and will be posting my conversation with him on the Scout site for subscribers.
I hadn’t thought about the DL guys, but I suppose Glaus could, and Garcia could — and possibly Mather too? wow.
It takes strong people to make a strong team. And strong individuals will disagree among themselves, under pressure and competing priorities. So it would seem normal and to be expected if there are some internal tensions.
I have not read what was said about the Chris trade, but he was not able to do what has to be done at a ML level, plus the Cards are crowded at AAA. It is probably healthier for this organization for Chris to work for another employer henceforth, thus Mo was clear-minded to make the Lugo trade. I hope Chris can earn his way back up to the majors.
If Chris’ departure were to somehow nudge his father or TLR toward retirement, that would be their choice. I doubt the Cards want them to leave, but if LaDuncan want to do so after October, we should thank them gratefully for wonderful years of service and sincerely wish them well. OTOH, if TLR would like to keep competing, we should offer a new contract.
Another reason for trading a few prospects…..
A ML team can only adsorb so many rookies in a short amount of time. The Cards have more prospects at AAA and AA than years ago. Not all these guys can be adsorbed in St Louis, because there are just not enough roster slots.
Accordingly, it is normal and natural if you have more guys at AAA/AA who seem ML candidates, you may want to trade a few.
It was a remarkably active July for trades. Lot of players moved.
Scott Rolen was re-united with Uncle Walt in Cincinnati. Nice to see them back together.
Jumbo, the evidence I think shows that Chris was gone. The collecting of first base bats by the Red Sox just stopped yesterday. No one was looking at Lugo because of all the available talent. The Cardinals had offered up Duncan and the Sox took him after he was headed for Memphis. He will never play for them. Lugo could of had two broken legs and we would have trashed Chris for that money. It was the money that made that trade. DeWitt doesn’t have a large cash flow because the government is watching him like a hawk. They used the cash to get Holiday. Thats ownership that knows where its stands with the public. It was clever and the fact that Lugo wants to play and is, just means BD is lucky. I know you guys have detected my indifference about Albert. Sorry. He is a good player, but a conditional player right now. His price is sliding in all markets. Everyone is watching his reaction to playing out of his bubble of special considerations. I’m surprise that teams are walking him. He backed off the plate about three inches yesterday. It didn’t help much. Scouts will be calling for pitchers to pound his hand for awhile. His slowness to adjust shows me he is under emotional duress and fears getting lost in the adjustment maze. Holiday is carrying this team. If we hit the end of the year with Holiday as the feeder, They will offer to pay him. Albert’s future is in negotiations. This is not just a slump, the hits he’s got are all weak chances. I am hoping he does come out of it. I’m not optimistic.
It’s a bold move to predict that the best hitter in the game is all of a sudden going to fall apart because his team has help.
Of course, it’s much easier to assert fanciful explanations for everything if you leave yourself an out, just like when that evil DeWitt supposedly all of a sudden changed his strategy mid-stream when it became clear that there was no way to twist recent events to show that he was money grubbing. Couldn’t possibly be that the earlier assumptions and assertions were incorrect, could it?
Westie, lets not let some selected praise mislead anyone about my finding all your thoughts to be credible. You may study some evidence intently, but you tend then to interpret a long ways, from a very modest basis of evidence.
Yes, the Sox unloaded Lugo and paid for him to get a one way ticket out of Beantown. The Sox and Cards swapped guys who must have been driving fans nuts in each town. Is this smart for the Cards? Yes, we will give guys fresh shots in hopes they rebound. We do this year after year, its a pattern.
The Lugo and Holliday deals are disconnected, including financially. You are getting a bit muddled in linking them. You claim the government is watching Dewitt like a hawk. Maybe so or maybe you have some kooky beliefs on this point.
You believe Pujols moved 3 inches off the plate yesterday. How do I know to trust your eyesight? Was it 3 inches or 2.4975 inches? Do I care? No. You believe and claim Pujols’ value is “falling in all markets.” I guess I have to put my faith in Albert.
You think Pujols is under “emotional duress.” You sound like a guy who spends wee bit too much time in therapy. Or maybe not enough, one or the other.
“I am not optimistic.” When are you ever optimistic? You are skeptical of McRae, Ankiel, Greene, Carpenter, Pujols, think Ludwick will get released, on and on and on. In contrast, I thought Ankiel was hurt, now he is feeling better and hitting more. I think Greene can contribute going forward. I dont think Pujols is all washed up. Its good to be a little more optimistic about where things are headed.
Didn’t Holliday/Boras turn down $100+million for 5 years from Colorado before he signed for $20+ million for his last 2 arb eligible years.
Nut, I’m a DeWitt supporter now. As long as his chances, what ever they are, are about winning, I’m his man. I’ve lived with folks like him my whole life.
Jumbo, everything I said is true. Yes I am a therapist. I’ve often thought about talking to you about your father. It might help. I live in the present, pitch by pitch. I love the way the game is played, not how it is recorded. I notice what the catcher is observing, I see what the pitchers likely tactic will be. I see how the hitters respond to situations. Albert is a gifted player. He has a ways to go in his development as “the best player”. All of the big money guys have now been exposed as drug users. The fact that Albert isn’t, is all hype. No one can use now without consequence. His attempt at marketing that is now bitting him in the ass. He is a victim of his own self righteousness. Everyone here,especially you, buys BD’s apparent transparent financial situation. You all think you understand just what he is doing. There is 118 million in subsidies coming up for a vote on the 21st for the Cardinal Village. He is playing a wide field right now. I hope he gets what he wants. I did.
Ps Watch Albert’s feet. It will tell you what is happening in his head. When he leaves the hips closed and starts hitting the other way, like the good hitters, then he is back. If he keeps breaking bats and living off mistakes, he is not the best…………. I trust Shu will bat 8 or nine tonight unless they activate Greene to play third, DeRosa will be at second in that case.. I can’t believe Greene is in the dugout. A mystery. Lets bunt a little, maybe run some. How about hit and run a little more often.
Westie, its plausible that you live “pitch by pitch.” This is one reason you can be mislead. Baseball is a 162 games, its a marathon, more month to month than pitch to pitch.
The PED stuff throughout baseball is grossly misunderstood by many reporters and fans who read them and politicians who jump into the topic. Its impossible to screen players for all possible PED molecules they could obtain. So the PED fad is a jihad or Salem witchcraft mess and it has to run its course and collapse of its own nonsense until people get so bored by the farce they scream for it to stop because it belittles the game itself. The next thing you know, they will ban chocolate or milk or Wonder Bread, because it is ruining the sublime purity of baseball competition.
Therefore, “No one can use without consequence” is wrong in several ways. First, everyone can still use something, they just have to use different molecules than are being screened or get medical prescriptions. But in any event, second, users are probably not helped out much anyway, because PED batters hit against PED pitchers, and it all cancels out.
You suggest Pujols is somehow impacted by the PED issue. I dont think so. He could have a sore elbow or some other injury. Or maybe he is in a little slump. During the marathon of baseball, players have ups and downs in a season. But you may not allow for this, if your attention span is pitch to pitch.
A funny article about the PED farce
http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1156742/1/index.htm
I don’t really think he does Jumbo. I only said he tried to capitalize on the hysteria surrounding the ongoing politics by saying “you can believe in me” which became a campaign by his manager. The leaking of names, and its purpose is very exotic indeed. That is true politics. The union is going after them. Are we seeing Greene?
Greene not in lineup
I’m sorry Jumbo, I didn’t read your message carefully enough. I had missed your last quip. Nice one. You do realize that “inward” is the direction of all heightened awareness? According to Jeshua, Buddha, Krishna, and Pelek the aborigine, my personal favorite. Just thought I would remind you, mastery of the smallest moment is the gateway to longer and more expansive states of grace. I hope if you go to the game tonight, and a foul ball comes screaming your way, your not thinking about game 162, least it hit you in a zippered area causing me to laugh gleefully..
A point of general interest. Loney and Martin are a little distracted today after almost being traded to SD. they are just trading errors in the Atlanta game. Its a tough living some times. Their minds must be watching game 162 with Jumbo.
HOU +185 -120 7.0 +185 -130 7.0 +175 -110 7.0 +185 -125 7.0 49%
STL -205 EVEN -205 +110 -210 -110 -200 +105 51% 76%
Wandy? this is about Holiday and DeRosa and Lugo hitting off field.
Westie, I do not go to games and generally do not watch any on the telly. As a fan, I am the opposite of pitch to pitch, possibly explaining why I am more patient.
However, it is imperative that players play the game one pitch at a time. On this, we may agree.
Regarding Bhudda, Palek, Jeshua, Krishna, I cannot disagree with their views about expansive states of grace, since I know nothing about them.
I know Jumbo………………….. How about the footing. Albert 3inches open…deep fly…..Holiday closed 2 inches on contact, hips closed goes out…………Ludwick to the plate, beginning to open up again, 3 to 4 inches, looks like hell. Those are Hal’s adjustments to protect the hands. He is a moron.
I understand that you have an interest in swings and body movements, and perhaps this is in conjunction some broader spiritual philosophies as well. Maybe this is how you look at things.
Here is how I look at things. I trust in Hal, Mike, and all the players. They are my experts and I would never tell them how they should be doing their jobs. I do not have philosophies about swings, other than I think guys should use their bats to try to get some hits. They should try hard and make adjustments as necessary to obtain results. Albert Pujols is a historically significant hitter. In my humble opinion, he knows more about how he feels and how he should swing than a Shrimp. If Mighty Albert is in a slump, then I expect him to work his way out and would never presume to think that Pujols or Mr. McRae are morons. I am a fan who roots for the team and does not get mad at guys who are trying their darndest.
I am not saying that swings are unimportant or that you should not pay keen attention to them. I am just saying we are coming at things from very different perspectives.
Baseball offers both drama and spectacle, so everyone can find a reason to be a fan.
Well-said, blingboy!
Here, here BB!
Do you see Holiday’s feet at contact. Albert pulled off a ball he should have crushed. Ludwick, stance now open, pulls his hand out and weakly pops to to right side. The tell is that opposing pitchers are setting them up in sequence to do just that, or just getting them to roll over and hit the easy ground ball to the left side by changing speed. Just for the record for those that are interested.
I just remembered something. Didn’t I once read something about Skip Schumaker and Matt Holliday working out with and getting trained by retired Cards star Mark McGwire, during some recent off season or two?
Baseball is a game of relationships! Relationships mattter.
This offers a clue why the Cards chased so hard after Matt Holliday. He’s out of Oklahoma (where there are a lot of Cards fans). Holliday is a friend of Jumbo’s friend, Mark McGwire.
I have to like Mo’s thinking here.
I had forgotten about the Holliday/McGwire friendship. It goes far in helping to explain the pursuit of Matt Holliday. McGwire could tell Holliday how much he enjoyed his playing days with the Cards.
Jumbo, you should read more of my stuff. I didn’t forget about the connection between Mac and Holliday. In fact, I specifically asked TLR about it in Philly last Friday.
Excerpt from “Cardinals Philly Cheese: July 24, 2009“, insider article at The Cardinal Nation at Scout.com as I was summarizing TLRs remarks about McGwire:
Last summer, I had wondered about the Cardinals dogged pursuit of Holliday and Fuentes. It seemed a bit misguided. Holliday is expensive in terms of salary and was a free agent for 2010.
One guy who comes out of this looking smart is Billie Beane who must have figured out what was going on. Beane jumped in last summer and gave up three players to land Holliday so as to turn around and flip him in 2010 and he came out ahead with a stronger trio than he gave the Rockies.
Brian, good job asking TLR.
I think this is a deal like Scott Rolen’s was, 3 players for a guy approaching free agency. We persuaded Rolen to sign a long term deal.
McGwire and Holliday have been friends for a while. This is why the Cards went so hard after Holliday back when he was with the Rockies. We did want not just a hitter, we want this particular hitter, because he comes McGwire approved. Maybe somebody suggested to TLR a couple of years ago, you should trade for Holliday. He might like St Louis and he might like to re-up, for a fair deal.
Interesting.