As I sat in the Citizens Bank Park pressbox Friday evening debating the present and future of the Matt Holliday for Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson trade, I realized there are a series of factors that together will play into whether or not this trade will be good for the St. Louis Cardinals.
In my opinion, it will take some time to be able to answer with any certainty – unless the Cardinals win the 2009 World Series, that is.
The factors include:
- Will the Cardinals reach the playoffs or win the World Series? (I view the latter as the only important factor while the Post-Dispatch‘s Derrick Goold favors the former in recognition that it is all about getting to the postseason and acknowledging the difficulty once there of winning it all.)
- Will Holliday sign an extension before reaching free agency? (I think if Holliday signs at all, it will be between the end of the regular season and the start of free agency -15 days following the completion of the World Series. Derrick thinks it could happen ala Kyle Lohse before the season is done. There is also a case that he could sign after reaching free agency but in terms of evaluating the value of the trade, that timing is not important.)
- If he signs, at what price? Is it below, at or above market value? Unless it is below market, one would think the Cards could have waited and bought him this winter without having given up the three players. It also has potential Pujols contract implications. (We agreed that it would have to be less than Albert’s $16 million. A more thorough analysis is work for another day.)
- If Holliday declares free agency, will the Cardinals offer arbitration, assuring themselves of two 2010 compensatory draft picks if Holliday declines? (Derrick thinks there is a chance Holliday might accept an arbitration offer, but I just can’t even give that a 1 percent chance.)
- Will either of these compensatory picks eventually yield a Major League star?
- Will one or more of Wallace, Mortensen and Peterson become a Major League star?
Below, I attempted to put all these conditions together to grade each combination of possibilities in order to assess whether the trade will be good, bad or in between.
In every case but the second, I used winning/not winning the World Series as the first criteria. Another version would be to put Derrick’s “making the playoffs” measure everywhere instead. I didn’t do it because I didn’t fully agree.
As always, I am interested in your view(s).
| Good trade | Bad trade | Neutral trade | |
| Cards win 2009 World Series | yes | ||
| Cards reach postseason | yes | ||
| Cards do not win 2009 World Series and | |||
| Holliday resigns below market value and | |||
| One or more of three prospects traded becomes MLB star | yes | ||
| Cards do not win 2009 World Series and | |||
| Holliday resigns below market value and | |||
| None of prospects traded becomes MLB star | yes | ||
| Cards do not win 2009 World Series and | |||
| Holliday resigns at or above market value and | |||
| One or more of three prospects traded becomes MLB star | yes | ||
| Cards do not win 2009 World Series and | |||
| Holliday resigns at or above market value and | |||
| None of prospects traded becomes MLB star | yes | ||
| Cards do not win 2009 World Series and | |||
| Holliday walks via free agency and | |||
| Cards do not offer arbitration | yes | ||
| Cards do not win 2009 World Series and | |||
| Holliday walks via free agency and | |||
| Cards offer arb and one or both comp picks become MLB star | yes but later | ||
| Cards do not win 2009 World Series and | |||
| Holliday walks via free agency and | |||
| Cards offer arb and neither comp picks become MLB star | yes | ||
| Cards do not win 2009 World Series and | |||
| Cards offer arb and Holliday accepts | yes* | ||
| * won’t happen |
You missed the most important one Brian:
Cards don’t win World Series
Holliday walks via free agency
one or more traded prospects become major league stars
We lose again as bad as we did in the Mulder/Haren trade. Two years after that deal, no one would trade Haren straight up for Mulder. In two years would MO trade Wallace straight up for Holliday??? That’s the big question; a trick question at that, because he may not have Holliday to trade!!!
Yes, I agree, Axcion. Thanks for the assist.
Edit: Further clarification. If Cards don’t win WS and Holliday walks,
Traded prospects become stars
Comp prospects become stars
Neutral
Traded prospects become stars
Comp prospects wash out
Bad
Traded prospects wash out
Comp prospects become stars
Good, but delayed
Traded prospects wash out
Comp prospects wash out
Neutral
Given the crapshoot that the playoffs have proven to be, I’m not sure the trade can be identified as a win if we win the World Series and neutral if we don’t.
I think if we make the playoffs, the trade is a win (for now) but using that measuring rod, the Mulder trade was a success.
We won’t know for years if we “won” the trade. I’m not that concerned about winning a trade. I just want to see this team win games. If the prospects dealt turn out to be stars, good for them and the A’s.
I shudder at the idea of what circumstances might cause this team to not offer arbitration to Holliday. We’re talking serious injury or worse to Holliday or a complete meltdown of the U.S. economy. Barring those events, he will be signed beforehand or offered arbitration.
The next question is determining what is market value for Holliday. Money is coming off the payroll with expiring contracts for Glaus, Ankiel and others.
I believe a strong effort will be made to re-sign Matt and I can’t wait to see the reaction he gets at Busch next week.
That’s a nice core of an offense with our 3-4-5 hitters and Rasmus coming along. It’s a great day to be a Cardinal fan.
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DD, Goold was more of your mind on playoffs vs. World Series. My argument is that in a weak (er. balanced) NL Central, the Cards were already in first place when the trade was made. So in that scenario, all Holliday would have done is keep them where they already were. The team without him is capable of losing in the post-season.
Edit: ESPN quoted a computer analysis from AccuScore that Holliday adds 1.8 wins to the Cards the rest of the way and improves their playoff chances by seven percent, from 54 to 61 percent.
The timing of the trade is good. Coming into series with Philly and LA it really makes the lineup, defense and running game so much better. I really like the way the Cards beat the Phillies last night. Pretty good statement for the opening game–hope the team keeps it up.
At first when the Holliday trade rumours were swirling I thought it was a mistake , but right before the deal went down I thought it could be good to very good. Even tho Matt doesn’t have the power of Dunn, his defense and speed make him a better piece for the Cards and except for cost a better option in left than Wallace.
All your points are well taken , Brian. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out. While it is sad to have Wallace leave the farm, it is exciting to see the big club improved in such an emphatic way. Combined with the Lugo and DeRosa deals.
bigchief, you are right about the timing as the club was hardly on a roll after the Houston series and with important opponents coming ahead as you note. I asked TLR the very question about timing yesterday. His answer was that there was no bad time for a trade like this. He had every reason to be in a good mood, but now the pressure moves from Mo to him to bring the team home with the pennant.
While any organization will have internal tension, if I am TLR considering whether or not to re-sign with the Cardinals after this season, the recent trades should have removed any potential concern about ownership’s commitment to win. Could he really find a better situation elsewhere?
Brian, the Cards were in 1st place, coming off an anemic showing vs division rival Houston being swept. The future for this team remaining in first place was looking more bleak by the day. To assume they would make the playoffs is a HUGE assumption that one only has to look at the collapse last year to see is flawed.
c13, people have been saying that for weeks. The Houston sweep is fresh, but remember the early June HOME series in which the Cards were swept four straight by Colorado? How about the end of June when they lost six of seven to the Mets, Twins and Giants? Did they fold then?
The only difference now is that the trade deadline is looming and other clubs are more inclined to deal.
Despite being 37-39 after the first month of the season, the Cards have hung in there. This month, the Cards have improved 3.5 games in the standings. Doesn’t look like a collapse to me.
My point is that if the season ended today, the Cards would be in the playoffs. That is the only indisputable point one can make about the standings since none of us can see the future, well except WC perhaps.
vinnyn11 says:
June 30th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
First C. Perez, next Ryan Ludwick!! Cardinals still want Matt Holliday. This deal is coming soon.
Well, how about that!!! And we didn’t have to give up Ludwick to get Holliday. Wallace can mash, but can’t run very well. He will be the A’s everyday 1st baseman (never in Cards plans)
Mortensen might pitch for the A’s, but likely out of the bullpen with the young stud pitchers they have. Peterson would never have a chance in Cards outfield for a couple of years. Now, Holliday needs to not listen to his agent and sign with the Cards, but old Scott wants the payday. Holliday justs wants to play for a contender every year and STL will love this guy, much like Larry Walker. Oh, one last minor comment, good riddance to CD, hello Julio.
After having now traded six younger players this season for DeRosa, Lugo, and Holliday, I’d have to think that at least not reaching the World Series would be a disappointment.
As long as they don’t bungle the potential comp picks, however, I don’t see any of these moves as disastrous.
Holliday is a showman. Watch him challenge Albert. DeRosa has cover now, he will produce. Lugo is a man without a country. He was banging the ball yesterday. You saw Colby get called down off the top step mid seventh after Holiday didn’t get his at bat. Interesting. Watch the pitchers run with this extra testosterone. I’m exited. Tony’s lineup today will show allot about how he sees things. You sure as hell aren’t going to see Thurston. This is what I think he’ll do.
Shu
Derosa
Albert
Holliday
Anliel
Lugo-ss
Rasmus
yadi
lohse
You might slide Ludwick in at 5th and Colby out if Tony is really on the move. I would. If Rasmus does play right, he might bat 2nd. Tony can run sweeping Left or Righty lineups now. No way he sits Rick who may bond with Holiday’s charisma.
DeWitt has changed tact. He is very smart to try this new strategy. I’m growing in appreciation for his thinking. There is no way Boras gets beat by the Lohse tactic here with MH. If Holliday falls in love with the fans, anything can happen though.
The Cards have finally landed their man! They sought Holliday during the summer 2008 and him again last fall. A’s GM Beane may have hoped to sell Holliday in a huge bidding war, but with the economy, it is not a strong marketplace, so the Cards were high bidder. Beane gave up 3 players to land Holliday, the Cards made him whole by giving him 3 for Holliday.
Wallace should become a fine ML hitter, best suited defensively at 1B. I am high on Mortensen and Peterson as well. They should become solid major leaguers. We are not trading them because we think they are riff-raff.
The Cards have given up 18 years of control over 3 good prospects for a few months of Holliday. This suggests they will bid hard to sign Holliday to a longer contract, as with Lohse, Rolen and Edmonds.
Part of the subplot is building a strong enough team to persuade Albert to stay in St Louis. Pujols needs Holliday for lineup protection.
Holliday ends the idea of Glaus in LF. Maybe we will trade Troy for a reliever? Mo seems in a dealing mood.
This pretty much ends it for Glaus and K Greene Jumbo. Both have no value now. I believe if Ankiel stays hot he may be traded for an arm. When he finds an identity his natural athleticism is awesome. He has always needed a “reflective” alter ego to replace his dad and he has adopted Holiday it looks like.
There is an appearance that both Albert and Yadi are having a hard time emotionally. The inbreeding here is scary. Colby just reports to the plate and tries to hit his homer. He looks like a little leaguer. Lugo is hot right now, but its not hard to see that he should be the hitting coach amongst other things. His aggressiveness shows that he senses organizational weakness and his experience tells him to blow through all the wannabes and play ball. Thank god for professionals. His worst day is going to be better technically than Ryan’s offensively. Its was his money that closed the Holiday deal. DeWitt is lucky. I like that.
Everyone agrees that, for the time being, we have no weakness in our offensive line-up: It is a veritable “murderers row” and nightmare for all opposing pitchers. While I heartily agree that the city of St. Louis is likely to take to Matt Holliday (under the shadow of Albert) as it did to Larry Walker (under the shadow of Big Mac), the naive, idealistic boy in me screams for Matt to over-rule his agent and insist upon the Cardinals as his home. Only the addition of another good starting pitcher and the replacement of Motte, Kinney and Thompson is needed to complement the clout of DeRosa-Pujols-Holliday-Ludwick-Molina; thus insuring repeated shots at the World Series for the next several years.
IIRC, we added Walker in 2004, after McGwire had retired. Walker worked in the shadows of Albert, Edmonds, and Rolen.
We need to find some more relievers. If not over-used, Motte may become an effective pitcher, he is just a rook. Kinney has not rebounded to his 2006 pinnacle and has earned a return to Memphis. We will need Thompson, until the day we no longer need Thompson; I am unsure when this day will arrive.
You are so right, JumboShrimp, but I believe the point is yet valid, that Cardinal fans will take to Holliday with the same degree of warmth that they took to Walker. However, Holliday will do far more for the Cardinals in the prime of his career than Walker did for the Cardinals during the end of his career.
With regard to our need for solid middle relievers, we just may get a boost with the placement of Wellemeyer therein. We will roll along big time with a four-man starting rotation, using Boggs sparingly as an occasional fifth starter. We can only hope that McClellan will be complemented by Hawksworth and Wellemeyer, while we continue to hope that Motte and Thompson develop. Miller will, of course, continue to be a murderous strike-out artist against left-handers.
TLR seems to be approaching the 5th starter issue in the right way, to wit, one start at a time. Boggs, Walters, McLane, Hawksworth, Ottavino, Thompson seem the field of possiblities. None are a sure bet. Boggs got some starts last year and this, so seems about the best bet for more trial.
Though Boggs succeeded in persuading TLR that he can only function as a starter (owing to a slow warm up during a game in Chicago), this may be incorrect. Boggs can throw hard for a couple of innings, so could actually be helpful as a ML set up guy.
Conversely, about Wellemeyer in this role, I harbor doubts. Control is not our Todd’s forte and an effective reliever has to be able to throw strikes when he wants to do so.
Disagree Jumbo. Tony is protecting Ankiel today on the premise that he has a stained groin. Not.
He also knows that Ankiel doesn’t touch this wild lefty and could only look bad. His motive is either an enhancement of Rick’s position over Colby, or there are negotiations under way to trade Rick for a pitcher. Both options may be at work.
I’ve decided that Albert is suffering a full on spiritual crisis in the aftermath of the All star drubbing coupled with the inclusion of high profile charismatics in his environment. This particular problem doesn’t just end with a hit. He will wrestle with it for a while, but it defiantly takes away any chance at a record breaking year. I believe his health is in jeopardy at this point. I wish I was wrong about this.
Rick has been a Tony favorite for a long time and Colby has been a front office/player development favorite. Maybe them going head to head for playing time in center will lead to some drama