Earlier today, Ian Walton offered a very insightful analysis as to why Todd Wellemeyer should be bounced from the St. Louis Cardinals rotation in favor of Brad Thompson.
That was posted even before Wellemeyer struggled mightily in his one-third inning of relief on Sunday as he was pulled with the bases loaded and one out. Two reached base via walks and one via a hit. As the Cardinals’ defense failed them, all three runners came home, turning a tight, one-run contest into the game-ending four-run edge for Chicago as the Cubs won 7-3.
For what is it worth, on this day, the runs were unearned. Overall, that hasn’t been the case most often as Wellemeyer has allowed 62 earned runs in 100 1/3 innings for a 5.56 ERA this season.
The following offers a perspective of the end result, not the means to that end as Ian more interestingly explained. Yet it is still very telling to me and supports the same conclusion.
In the storied 128-year history of the St. Louis Cardinals franchise, Wellemeyer has joined a most dubious group – the top dozen worst ERAs for a pitcher given at least 18 starts in a season.
Amazingly, four of the bottom 12 have been added to the list in the last four years alone – Jason Marquis in 2006 plus Anthony Reyes and Kip Wells in 2007. In case you didn’t break the code, none of those three remain with the Cardinals today.
In other words, Wellemeyer has been given more than enough rope.
While there remains almost a half-season for him to improve, odds are at least as likely Wellemeyer would move further up this list – if he is given the opportunity, that is.
St. Louis Cardinals highest ERA in a season (18 or more starts) – club history
| Rank | Pitcher | ERA | GS | Year | Age |
| 1 | Andy Benes | 7.38 | 19 | 2001 | 33 |
| 2 | Nelson Briles | 6.24 | 19 | 1970 | 26 |
| 3 | Anthony Reyes | 6.04 | 20 | 2007 | 25 |
| 4 | Jason Marquis | 6.02 | 33 | 2006 | 27 |
| 5 | Bill Sherdel | 5.93 | 22 | 1929 | 32 |
| 6 | Danny Jackson | 5.90 | 19 | 1995 | 33 |
| 7 | Jose Jimenez | 5.85 | 28 | 1999 | 25 |
| 8 | Jesse Haines | 5.71 | 25 | 1929 | 35 |
| 9 | Kip Wells | 5.70 | 26 | 2007 | 30 |
| 10 | Leo Dickerman | 5.58 | 20 | 1925 | 28 |
| 11 | Todd Wellemeyer | 5.56 | 18 | 2009 | 30 |
| 12 | Bill Doak | 5.54 | 29 | 1922 | 31 |
| 13 | Allen Watson | 5.52 | 22 | 1994 | 23 |
Thanks to Tom Orf for the data pull.
Ouch!
This is a helpful list, for perspective.
Andy Benes was probably injured.
Anthony Reyes was bad in 2007, even though many fans still optimistically hoped for the best that he was a budding star.
Jose Jimenez in 1999 had skipped over AAA and too much was being asked of him. He later pitched well as a closer for the Rockies, so had ability.
Jason Marquis made 33 starts in 2006, Kip Wells made 30 in 2007. Their examples may auger the future with Welly in 2009. Jason was making some millions and Kip was making $4MM, the same as Wellemeyer. Unless we identify another pitcher who can give us better, we may stick it out with Wellemeyer as the 5th guy.
Jumbo, can you appreciate how bad Wellemeyer’s 1.72 WHIP this season is? In past seasons, an MLB-average pitcher’s WHIP was around 1.38 or 1.39. That means many more baserunners out there, about three more per nine innings, waiting to be brought in.
Brian, it was a while ago when I forecast Wellemeyer had to step up his game or the Cards would have to turn the page on him. Some called this premature. Walters, Hawksworth, Boggs, Maclane provide some alternative candidates.
Do I understand how bad Welly is? Thanks to the recent experiences of all star Jason Marquis, Anthony Reyes, and Kip Wells, I fear that I have become an expert on bad pitching. As such, I do not have a lot of confidence in Brad either.
Distribution of the pain by decades:
1920s: 4 (Sherdel, Haines, Dickerman, Doak). In 1929, Sherdel and Haines crashed before the stock market.
1930s: zero
1940s: zero
1950s: zero
1960s: zero
1970s: 1 (Briles, hero in 67-68, so is forgiven)
1980s: zero
1990s: 3 (Watson, Jackson, Jimenez)
2000s: 5 (Benes, Marquis, Reyes, Wells, Wellemeyer)
Agree on Brad. Neither is appealing.
Wellemeyer’s history in the majors….
2003, Cubs, reliever, 6.2 BB/9 IP
2004, Cubs, reliever, 7.4 BB/9
2005, Cubs, reliever, 6.1 BB/9
2006, Marlins, reliever, 5.5 BB/9
2006, Royals, reliever, 5.8 BB/9
2007, Royals, reliever, 6.3 BB
Thus, across 5 seasons, Welly was strictly a reliever and had a terrible walk rate, leading to his release by the last place Royals.
For the Cards in 2007, he made his first 11 ML starts and 9 relief appearances. His BB rate improved to 4.1
In 2008, in a full season as a starter, he averaged 2.9 BBs/9 innings, astounding by his past performance.
In 2009, he is back up to 4.1 BB/9. Not great, but 50 percent lower than most of his ML years.
Wellemeyer has always struggled to throw strikes. He’s a big guy and the Cards were desparate in 2007, so tried him as a starter. His control improved. He put in a full good year in 2008, throwing nearly 200 innings, a workload that higher than Thompson has shouldered to this point. A lot of pitching metrics are per inning, which does not reflect the quantity of innings, another important dimension.
If I had to choose a reliever, between Thompson and Wellemeyer, I would without hesitation chose Thompson, since more of a strike thrower. If I had to choose a starter between these two, I might choose Wellemeyer because he has thrown more innings in a season and I doubt he will help from the bullpen. Happily, Dave Duncan has good judgement, so I am glad Dave is around to make these decisions.
Not all these sorry seasons were the last word.
Benes bounced back, learning a trick pitch, and went off to retirement on a high note.
Jason Marquis has become an All Star. This defies understanding.
Jimenez became a strong reliever.
We have endured some of these tough seasons by pitchers in recent years because of an absence of alternatives. This year we may have a few options (Boggs, Hawksworth, Walters). But they may be best served to keep working at AAA and be candidates for 2010.
Joel Pineiro was pretty bad in 2008, not much better than Wellemeyer this year. Duncan and LaRussa were tough on him. They rode Joel hard, they did not baby him. And this year, he has bounced back and been remarkably good. So the best thing may be Duncan trying to squeeze better performance out of Wellemeyer. We know he has it in him, because he was better last year.
Nellie Briles got traded after losing his spot in the rotation in 1970. His term in St Louis was 6 seasons (1965-70). He rebounded to have 3 more fine seasons as a starting pitcher with other teams.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Nelson-Briles.shtml
Welly is suffering from a modern day malady. To be honest, its called Halo2. His delivery is unstable for some reason and he doesn’t seem to have the emotional resources to enter our every day world to fix them. If your familiar with some of the complexities of VG addiction, he is showing many of the symptoms. Oddly enough it has, in moderation, created a hell of sinker for one of the gang. He may never realize what hit him.
Yeah, Pineiro has a much improved season because he developed a great sinker. His improved performance didn’t just come out of the blue.