By Ian Walton
With Kyle Lohse set to return to the St. Louis rotation this Sunday afternoon, the Cardinals will soon be faced with a decision over who will remain as their number five starter. It will likely boil down to who they believe will do the least amount of damage, as Todd Wellemeyer currently sits with a 7-7 record and a 5.58 ERA in 100 innings pitched while Brad Thompson has tallied a 2-6 record and a 5.31 ERA in just shy of 58 innings.
Wellemeyer has fallen hard this season after posting a very respectable 13-9 record with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 191.7 IP in 2008. It seems fairly clear that he has become overexposed against left-handed batters, giving up 11 HR, 27 BB, and a 1.98 WHIP along with 28 strikeouts in 48 IP this season. Conversely, he has only yielded 2 HR and 18 walks with a 1.44 WHIP and 36 K in 52 IP against right-handed batters. In 2008, he recorded only 29% of his outs against LHB while in 2009, he has been forced to record 48% of his outs against lefties.
His reliance upon his changeup has thus jumped from 10.8% to 13.1% this season while his slider usage has dropped from 23.7% to 21.4%. This is a big problem, as FanGraphs indicates that he gives up 6.12 runs more than average per 100 changeups thrown compared to giving up 1.87 runs fewer than average per 100 sliders and 1.86 runs fewer than average per 100 curves. In short, teams have realized that his changeup is an inadequate off-speed offering and are stacking their lineups with left-handed hitting in order to compensate.
Thompson joined the 2009 rotation on June 2, making eight starts since. In five of those outings, he failed to last longer than five innings. Much like Wellemeyer, Thompson has been forced to face many more left-handers than in the past, as he has recorded almost exactly as many outs against RHB than LHB this season. This has naturally resulted in him throwing his changeup significantly more often – he has used it a solid 20% of the time following a steady 13% usage in 2007 and 2008.
Unfortunately for Brad, his already poor fastball velocity has dropped from 88 MPH to 87 MPH this season while his changeup velocity has risen from 81 MPH to 83 MPH. A four MPH difference likely won’t fool very many major league batters. To date, his changeup has actually been his most effective offering according to FanGraphs, as his curveball has fared worse. In 29 IP against RHB, Thompson has 9 K against 6 BB with a 1.40 WHIP and 3 HR while in 28 2/3 IP against LHP, Thompson has 13 K against 11 BB with a 1.38 WHIP and 4 HR. Clearly, there isn’t a strong platoon advantage either way.
As counter-intuitive as it may seem, I believe that Brad Thompson may be the Cardinals’ best choice to stay in the rotation while Todd Wellemeyer is best suited as a situational or long relief pitcher out of the bullpen. Wellemeyer’s 5.6 IP per start isn’t protecting the bullpen significantly more than Thompson’s 5.4 IP per start, and Thompson at least appears to have some hope at stopping left-handed batting.
There is some hope, as Wellemeyer has begun to throw a cutter a mere 2.2% of the time this season, and it has fared well in limited action. Ryan Franklin has become as much more effective pitcher against LHB this season due to a sudden 26.2% usage of the cutter (compared to 2.5% last season) in addition to phasing out his slider.
In 2009, Franklin has thrown nine strikeouts against four walks with a 0.77 WHIP in 15 2/3 IP against left-handed batters compared to 15 strikeouts against three walks with a 0.87 WHIP in 17 1/3 IP against right-handed batters. Compare this to Franklin’s 2008 season, when he surrendered a 1.61 WHIP and 21 K:17 BB against LHB while giving up a 1.38 WHIP and 30 K:13 BB against RHB.
If Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan could help teach Wellemeyer an effective off-speed option against left-handed pitchers like he did Franklin, then Todd would be versatile enough to return to the starting rotation. Until then, Brad Thompson would be my choice.
Thanks to FanGraphs and their PitchFX data for pitch usage, speeds, and effectiveness.
So they use Wellemeyer out of the pen today and he of course walks both left handed batters he faces. I don’t understand why they keep sending him out there to fail.
I have doubts about some pitch data shown in MLB’s Gameday; I assume that this the same FX data. Thompson was reportedly throwing an 87 fastball followed by an 86 mph changeup. This does not make a lot of sense. It seems more likely he actually threw two fastballs. The velocity data is going to be what it is. The more uncertain variable is ascribing the type of pitch. This may be done inaccurately and cause a data illusion that Thompson’s change is almost fast as his fastball.
It is basic to stack a lineup with lefties against an RHP, so why this was not done so much last year, while has been done this year, I do not understand. It might be worthy as a research project, because it should be diagnoseable as to who the greater number of lefty swingers are.
Thompson’s shorter innings per start may be the result of his having been thrown into a starter’s role at short notice.
Neither Wellemeyer or Thompson is inspiring. Its like trying to figure out which turtle is faster. Maybe one is, but neither is a jack rabbit.
TLR has to guess who might be able to pitch better in future, in the respective capacities of starter and reliever. I dont have a lot of faith in Wellemeyer as a reliever. He probably needs a lot of time to warm up. He seems iffy for coming into a game and throwing strikes. Welly stunk as a reliever for the Cubs and Royals. Unless TLR has reasons to think Thompson can improve as a starter, then I think the Cards will stick with Wellemeyer. Welly is making $4MM, more is asked from higher paid men.
I’ll grant that the pitch speed data is a bit messy in the early stages here, but if you’re throwing so slowly that your fastball is confused for a changeup, it’s a really bad sign.
Wellemeyer can’t handle lefties any more. Contract or not, it will hurt the team to keep making him face them.
The article above does not make clear (to me as a reader) whether Wellemeyer handled lefties better in 2008. He has seen more of them this year, but that may owe to opponent roster changes during the offseason. Wellemeyer may potentially be pitching about the same as last year, but since he is seeing more lefty swingers, he is yielding more runs.
The good news is the rotation of Carpenter, Wainwright, Pineiro, and Lohse is a strong front four. The team has some pitching options for the 5th starting spot, more than in 2006 and 2007 when we had to endure awful seasons with Jason, Reyes, and the Kipster.
Oh, sure. I didn’t want to flood the thing with stats, but in his career, Wellemeyer has the following ratios:
vs LHB: 1.49 HR/9 IP, 1.27 K:BB, 1.62 WHIP
vs RHB: 0.89 HR/9 IP, 1.84 K:BB, 1.38 WHIP
In 2008:
vs LHB: 1.36 HR/9 IP, 1.64 K:BB, 1.35 WHIP
vs RHB: 1.04 HR/9 IP, 2.59 K:BB, 1.18 WHIP
Clearly, he had a career last year, but he has struggled against LHB his whole career. His changeup was a plus pitch last season, but has clearly regressed. Again, I suggest overexposure.
One reason Wellemeyer had a career season in 2008 was it was his first year as a starter. Throwing more pitches in the role of starter seemed to sharpen his control. Cutting down on walks improved both WHIP and K:BB ratio.
This year, he has been quoted in the P-D saying he has lost some velocity. Welle has been a thrower, relying on velocity. Its normal to lose a few mph through the years. Duncan has said Wellemeyer is pitching too finely. He is trying to hit corners, walking more batters, making more pitches, not lasting past the 6th inning. Last year he seemed more aggressive, throwing his heater over the plate and challenging batters. Two issues seem diminshed fastball and control.
Yeah, FanGraphs has his velocity down about 2 MPH on his pitches. Certainly doesn’t help.
Why does the choice have to only be one of those two. If TLR is a man of his word, and he is most assuredly when it’s convenient for him, then Blake Hawksworth should be given the opportunity. Larussa did say only the best five would ever be in the starting lineup. Now, you and I know he’s only spouting fodder for the press, but just suppose he was held to be accountable for his comments!!!!!!!!!!!
Yeah, I wouldn’t mind seeing one of the young guys getting a chance.
It may not be crystal clear Hawksworth would be an improvement. Memphis is a pitcher’s park, so stats from there do not necessarily translate predictably to St Louis. Thompson and Anthony Reyes have had good ERA’s with Memphis. Second, Hawksworth has been able to impress in St Louis in the less challenging role of reliever.
It’s not crystal clear Hawksworth wouldn’t be an improvement either, but the question is; is it worth a try or do we continue along with mediocrity. I say he can do better given the chance. The same chance the other two have been given. What’s the worst he can do? Pitch like Wellemeyer???
They will not demote Welly. They will trade him before that. Which is a real possibility.
Save for the problem of Wellemeyer having no trade value.
Welly probably is hapless as a reliever.
So the choice for the Cards is whether to try to squeeze more out of Wellemeyer or demote/release him. If we had a stud starter at AAA, primed for the majors, then its a no brainer, good-bye Welly. But we do not have anyone like that. And as soon as you release Wellemeyer, then one or two of your other pitchers will suffer an injury and your organization is short-handed.
Its a judgement call for LaDuncan. Unless there is someone they have a lot of confidence in as a starter, I would squeeze Wellemeyer.
Wellemeyer is 7 and 7. If he were 3 and 10, then he could be released. But as long as the team is competitive and he collects some wins, he probably stays in the saddle, for a while. A few more bad starts could change things, however.
That 7/7 has trade value Jumbo. If they make a move with Ankiel in the next 2 weeks, it very well could be a multi player deal with Welly the real focus. Bail 3.5 mill take on 3.5 mill.
I am imagination-challenged in relation to what other teams would trade for Wellemeyer and Ankiel. Wellemeyer has not had a good first half, Ankiel tripped and ran into a wall, understandably resulting in a sore right shoulder, plus he is on the verge of free agency. At the present time, we would not want whoever other teams may be willing to surrender for these two men, given their current situations, .
Ankiel does not have a shoulder problem. He has an identity problem. The swing he brought is inadequate. The shape and nature of that swing, with its speed and cutting, masculine aggressiveness, does not hide its origin or purpose. On a simpler level, maybe someone thinks they can solve his conundrum. WC could easily.
Wellemeyer is having life problems, not pitching problems really. He is lost in the endless gaming. Their are many that know a simple change of scene can do wanders. I’m sure it is also thought by management that he is dependent on D.D. who will be gone next year anyway. It is not a great risk to some wealthy teams.
Any GMs making trades based upon won-loss records in this day and age need to be quickly fired or sent off in a time machine to twenty or more years ago.
Westie, here is what I would find helpful. Ankiel hit 43 homers at AAA/StL in 2007. In 2008, he hit very well, until suffering a sports hernia or something, which warranted an operation. What technical differences do you notice between his swing today versus his swing, when he was achieving great results?
Similarly, Kid Duncan, he swung well in the back half of 06 and first half of 07, before suffering twin serious injuries, both ultimately requiring operations. What are the technical qualities in the swing that explain why he did well in 06/07 and how has the swing changed for the worse, today?
What X-ray machine enables you to know that though Ankiel ran into a wall, his right shoulder is not sore, he is just lying, and he is instead suffering an “identity problem”? If you could really read minds, you could make some serious money with that kind of gift.
Welly could be having life problems. A lot of folks have life problems, until we move to the great beyond, so no reason for Welly to be an exception. Why was he able to master these challenges last year and not this year?
How do you know Daddy Dunc will be gone next year? Are you the first person he confides in? Why would Daddy confide in you, since you then spill the beans about these precious, privileged secrets for the entire Cardinal Nation to see?
Jumbo, I am encouraged by your question marks. Your attempts at creating or extending the function of a rhetorical question, really often act as obstacle or impediment whose placement illuminate the perceptual challenges you are facing. Let me try this;
1) The same problems Rick has with his swing he had with pitching. There is a disconnect between his emotional and physical self image. This resulted probably in a childhood that ignored some learning impediments (disabilities) while highlighting a highly co-dependent relationship with his father who if I recall had some real self-esteem issues. His denial of a problem is the foundation for his technical inflexibility. He is not evolved enough as an athlete to deal with technical challenges. He only knows the feeling, and this is denied him by emotional instability. This game is evolving and once you have people recognizing your problems, scouts and coach’s will nail you. Dave is not the only one doing pitch sequencing. I have written about his swing, look it up.
2) Chris has a good swing. Playing for another team could show that. He will never play around daddy again. He listens to the table talk. Tony knows Rick in out of here. He is giving him every opportunity to stay in the game because he has been told that he is gone from the Cardinals. Suggesting injury as a possible problem is a courtesy. I have made a lot of money.
3) Welly is lost in his own experience. The power of his addiction is related to the growing power of the medium. By the looks of Lohse on Sunday, there’s trouble a brewing all around.
4) Tony negotiated Dave’s contract Jumbo. Do you think it was him that suggested the option?
That was Mo, in case Tony developed a leverage position somehow. He got a nice raise and Mo was just covering his ass against another gouge. If you think about that meeting, and its result, you might infer a lot about its tone and content. Because of what obviously wasn’t talked about, you also might infer that Mo was feeling a little exposed about its content and threw in the mutual option because it created camouflage for the Pujols plan. One way or another, there are multiple players on the court.
I agree with Nutlaw; what GM in their right mind looks at won/loss. If they did, no one would take Pineiro in a trade because of his record and we all know how absurd that is. Baseball’s win/loss system is the biggest joke in professional sport anyway.
Westie
Rick is not necessarily “out of here.” He is having a poor walk season. It is not impossible the Cards/Boras could collaborate on a one year deal for 2010 to see if Rick can get back on track.
Rick has long been able to hit for power. He enjoyed doing so when a pitcher. If having problems this year, his violent collision with a fence is a plausible contributing reason, not a “courtesy” or by implication a lie.
You offer your opinion Chris Duncan has a good swing. This could answer my question as to why he hit well in 2006/early 2007.
You seem to suggest that his good swing is undercut by playing near his father. This theory would not explain why Chris could succeed in 2006 near his Dad, but struggle in 2009 near his Dad.
Another possible explanation is the metal disk inserted in his neck may have got him able to play again, a welcome thing, but Chris may have lost a tiny bit. There is probably a fine line between being good versus mediocre. If a player loses a little bit, he can drop back to the pack.
The placement of Glaus as an outfielder is so revealing Jumbo as to what Mo/Bd are thinking. If they can’t move him, they will bring him up anyhow. The Rick story is over. The Khalil story is over. Those are now just delaying tactics. The real concern is how poorly this team played yesterday. Colby is in desperate need of a roll. He needs to be coached. We need to score 6+ today to have any chance.
If Glaus’ arm is messed up to trouble him playing third base, how do they expect him to be able to handle throws from the outfield? I’m confused by their behavior.
Here is what we know about Glaus. He incurred a bum shoulder. Either it got worse or its persistence indicated a problem. So in January, we learned we were without a 3rd baseman. Glaus had an operation. There were overoptimistic projections about his return by May (bringing to mind past optimistic thoughts about how Rolen could play through). In any event, rationality prevailed this time, and Glaus rehabbed at home. Recently Troy has become playable. The catch, however, is his swing is better than his throwing arm. Playing 3B requires strong throws.
Now Troy could play 1B, but we already have a good 1Bman (who also was a 3rd baseman who suffered an arm injury). So there is not a lot of playing time at 1B.
The next best place to put someone like Mr. Glaus is where we previously stationed Albert and current station Chris Duncan, left field.
Ankiel has a right shoulder problem. It deserves careful examination and realistic diagnosis, since Rick just playing with it is not working out. Thus, at some point, we could put Rick on the DL so he could have an operation or shoulder-strengthening exercise. Since his value in approaching free agency would be low, Boras could consider a one year deal with St Louis, in hopes his client, if returned to health by next year, can have a fine season in 2010.
The Khalil story is not necessarily over for 2009. He and the Cards are trying a new theapeutic approach. Since it is exploratory, there is no time line for his return to duty. But since we could use his bat, and he does not need an operation like DeRosa, don’t count him out.
Rasmus has loads of coaching resources: Hal; Aldrete; and/or his Dad.
Yes we have offensive issues. This is why we paid out so much talent for DeRosa and why it is shame that Fate has struck a cruel blow with his wrist. So the 2009 season is going to be a long hard slog, no cake walk.
Dont forget about Freese either. If his foot injury becomes healed, then he could return to the fray.
A baseball season is long. It can be a war of attrition. The Cards will try to make full use of the players available in their system. Anything is possible. If Glaus becomes playable, then he may find himself in LF. If Freese returns, he can play 3B. If Khalil Greene gets a new approach, he may be stationed at 3B. If DeRosa can play through his injury, he can play 3B; if he cannot, he can go on the DL. T. Greene, Barden, Hoffpauir, Hawksworth, Mortensen, Todd, Robinson could get called back. Scherer, Solano and Jay could get a tryout. Pagnozzi should get called up in September, if not before. Lots of possibilities. The Cards will take them a game at a time and juggle the roster in search of any advantages.
Yeah, but DeRosa can play 3B, 2B, or the outfield. He’s the only one likely to bump Glaus from third base, but it makes a lot more sense to put DeRosa in LF and Glaus at 3B rather than the other way around. Yes, third base requires strong throws, but the outfield requires even stronger ones.
The Cards would NEVER put Glaus in LF, if he could play 3B. He has played 3B his entire career. If he does not return to 3B, his arm strength does not allow him to play there.
The best place to station someone with weak arm strength is 1B. But the position is occupied with Pujols.
The Cards have no alternative but to fallback to the next position for weak arm strength, LF. A LF can lob the ball to a cutoff man. Lot of left-fielders have been poor defensively: Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, Chris Duncan, Lou Brock, plenty more. Teams station OFs with strong arms in RF and CF.
DeRosa has the arm strength to make the throws from 3B. His issue is different, impaired swinging because of a problem in his left (non-throwing) wrist. I have no idea if he will be able to successfully collect hits with this injury, which will require an operation, but for now he can field 3B, unlike Glaus.
Freese made his first rehad appearance today. Between DeRosa, K Greene, and Freese, we are hoping to come up with a 3rd baseman.
I remember back when Pujols was underhanding balls over to Edmonds while playing left field. It wasn’t pretty.
Glaus is playing OF just for the scouts from the AL…… Duncan’s time is up now. These were his last chances. One thing to remember here is that things fundamentally haven’t changed. We could buy a playoff birth with a few moves. If you don’t want Pujols, you stand pat because thats what sends him on his way on his prerogative.. The snake has bit DeRosa, poor guy. That pop up hurt him. 2 runs against that hodge podge won’t cut it. One more time. Greene can’t be cured with pharmaceuticals. He has also become bad for the bench. He can’t help.
Glaus will play LF if this makes us any better. If he is a liability in LF, then he may be limited to just pinch-hitter.
If Glaus hits well, then it is not impossible that we might trade him to an AL team in need at DH, because of his unusual circumstance of being a good hitter who has an arm problem. However, the chance of this happenning seems small, because such a deal may not be easy to find.
The Cards should be flexible and play anyone who shows signs of life. Stavinoha could get more ABs. If Craig or Jay get hot, they could get ML try-outs. If DeRosa hits, K Greene would not be so needed. If Freese bounces back, he is another option for 3B. But if K Greene plays well in the minors and there is a need, he could be tried at 3B, SS, or LF.
The bottom line: the Cards need more offense from 3B and LF.
Duncan began the season with a strong April, OPS over 900. It was encouraging. His health seemed restored to first half of 2007 state. Since then, however, he has struggled with the bat. Something will have to change at some point.
At least the Cards have finally admitted Ankiel has a right shoulder issue. He is now Chris’ defensive backup. Ankiel’s shoulder must really be sore to be regarded as less of a threat with the bat than Duncan.
Its been a strange season. Some great or very good performances, undercut by odd injuries (Glaus, Freese, Mather, KGreene, Ankiel).
TLR should think about starting Stavinoha in LF for the next two games in Houston. Stavinoha is from Houston, so this might give him a lift. The second game is against Wandy-Rod the LHP. Its a good park for right swinging hitters. If not Stavinoha, then Thurston. Somebody other than Ankiel or Duncan.
Or, we could try Pineiro in LF. He hit well today.
Just putting together a post about Joel’s hitting…
Jumbo, besides speed and no arm, Troy has no durability in the outfield. They may eat half his salary or more but this team needs speed. Rasmus is in trouble now. The starters will fold with no support. The stress is mounting on Carp. His mechanics are starting to get sloppy.
Westie, A team does battle with the assets it has. We have to squeeze what we can out of our guys. Tony liked Sweet Lou’s move, when he put a lefty reliever in LF for a batter. If it can give us a chance to beat Lou, we are going to put a lifer 3rd baseman who cant throw in LF.
But I can’t wait until Glaus is ready. Its time for Stavinoha to get some starts in LF. No more Duncan or Ankiel.
Responding to “No more Duncan or Ankiel” I am afraid Ankiel had a brain freeze like he did with his pitching and it’s all over. Hope I’m wrong. Does anyone think Duncan would benefit from facing AAA or AA pitching everyday for a while. He looks like he’s never seen a baseball before.
I believe Duncan has one option year remaining. Especially if Greene, Glaus, etc are ready soon, this would seem like a good time to use it.
Even if not, couldn’t he agree to go down for some kind of rehab or something. He has to know that his best bet for a future is as a DH and if he can’t hit he is done.
Jumbo, Carp is struggling, Waino has a plus ID now, Lohse is struggling, Pienro is amazing right now and that must be preserved at all costs. Welly is in the teeth of the beast. These guys can’t carry Glaus defensively in relation to his offensive production. The fact that were even talking about it is a joke. We need to close the door on the wannabe’s, and get these pitchers set up and pumping. Rasmus needs to be batting 5th and butting and stealing in front of yadi. This, “I’m a doubles HR guy” is a joke. We need a run against Harrin. Colby leads of the 7th without even thinking bunt. LaRusa has stopped thinking.
There are limits to what TLR can do with these guys. He brought in Aldrete to try to help Rasmus adjust to the majors, but Rasmus is headstrong. He is going to play his game, right or wrong.
We are spending $18MM on Glaus and K. Greene. We need to squeeze some work out of them, for all that moola. The good news: they do not want to lay around and collect unemployment like welfare bums, they want to contribute. We need to harness their good attitudes.
Blingboy, Rick has not had a brain freeze. His right shoulder is just messed up. He should be DL’d and receive treatment. We should put a healthier player on the field.
Jumbo, I was thinking the shoulder was just what was being said. If you are right I hope he doesnt hurt it worse.
We know Rick stumbled and hit a wall pretty hard. He’s a tough guy, so he has been trying to play through it. But Ankiel is such a stud athlete you know something has to be wrong with his shoulder. I dont think its an excuse. Its real.
He can play defense still, unlike Duncan, but I would rather liberate Schumaker to the OF and let Rick work on his shoulder.
Shoulder wasn’t so bad this evening Jumbo.