There are several ways a baseball game can end in a dramatic fashion.
- On the road, the club can score in the top of the final inning and hold the home team off in the bottom of the frame for the win.
- At home, a team can score in the bottom of the eighth. When holding the visitors at bay in the top of the ninth, the win was secured in the home club’s final at-bat.
- But the most exciting is the one that is instant in nature, the walk-off victory, by definition at home.
The latter occurred on Wednesday evening as rookie Colby Rasmus’ solo home run in the bottom of the tenth inning powered the St. Louis Cardinals to a 2-1 win over the San Francisco Giants.
If it seemed like it had been a long time since a Cardinals walk-off, that’s because it was.
Prior to Rasmus, the club hadn’t had a walk-off since Troy Glaus did it last September 26. In an oddity, the last two walkoffs were on non-hits. Glaus’ was a sacrifice fly and prior to that, Cesar Izturis ended a September game against the Cubs on a fielders’ choice.
Looking at the Cardinals walk-off totals by season during the Tony La Russa years in St. Louis, one can see that the late-game heroics have been missing here in 2009. Last season, the team’s 11 walk-off wins included five on home runs, each tied for the team’s best season since 1996.
An average Cardinals season has eight walk-offs, of which three come via the home run.
Contrast those stats with 2009, during which over almost half the season had been played before the Cardinals managed even one walk-off win.
Cardinals walk-off wins by season (1996-2009)
| total walkoff | walkoff non-HR | walkoff HR | |
| 2009 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2008 | 11 | 6 | 5 |
| 2007 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| 2006 | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| 2005 | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| 2004 | 10 | 6 | 4 |
| 2003 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| 2002 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| 2001 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 2000 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| 1999 | 11 | 8 | 3 |
| 1998 | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| 1997 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| 1996 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| totals | 105 | 65 | 40 |
| 62% | 38% | ||
| full-season average | 8 | 5 | 3 |
Looking at individuals, it is expected that Albert Pujols leads the Cards in total walk-offs and walk-off home runs since 1996. Referencing the data below, I did find it interesting that the top three players in walk-offs did it via the home run 71% of the time. That compares to just 38% for the club overall.
I was also surprised to see that Scott Rolen is not among the Cards’ best in such feats. Note that Ryan Ludwick is coming on quickly, considering he has only about two seasons as a Cardinals major leaguer.
Cardinals walk-offs by player (1996-2009) (minimum four)
| Inn | Opp | Score | Hit | BI | Final | ||
| 6/1/1996 | 10 | Hou | 4-4 | Tom Pagnozzi | HR | 1 | 5-4 |
| 7/21/1996 | 10 | ChC | 5-5 | Tom Pagnozzi | HR | 1 | 6-5 |
| 8/7/1996 | 9 | SD | 0-0 | Gary Gaetti | HR | 1 | 1-0 |
| 9/2/1996 | 10 | Hou | 7-7 | Willie McGee | 1B | 1 | 8-7 |
| 9/19/1996 | 13 | ChC | 4-4 | Tom Pagnozzi | 1B | 1 | 5-4 |
| 9/27/1996 | 11 | Cin | 1-1 | Ron Gant | 1B | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4/8/1997 | 9 | Mon | 1-1 | Willie McGee | HR | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4/29/1997 | 9 | SF | 6-7 | Ron Gant | HR | 3 | 9-7 |
| 5/30/1997 | 9 | LA | 1-1 | DeLino DeShields | BB | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6/25/1997 | 9 | ChC | 1-1 | Gary Gaetti | HR | 2 | 3-1 |
| 7/2/1997 | 10 | Min | 1-1 | Willie McGee | HR | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8/15/1997 | 12 | Atl | 2-2 | DeLino DeShields | HR | 1 | 3-2 |
| 4/2/1998 | 12 | LA | 5-5 | Mark McGwire | HR | 3 | 8-5 |
| 5/12/1998 | 10 | Mil | 5-5 | DeLino DeShields | 1B | 1 | 6-5 |
| 5/22/1998 | 12 | SF | 3-3 | Ron Gant | 1B | 1 | 4-3 |
| 7/11/1998 | 11 | Hou | 2-3 | Mark McGwire | HR | 2 | 4-3 |
| 7/19/1998 | 9 | LA | 4-4 | John Mabry | 1B | 1 | 5-4 |
| 8/8/1998 | 13 | ChC | 8-8 | Ray Lankford | 1B | 1 | 9-8 |
| 8/12/1998 | 14 | NYM | 4-4 | Ray Lankford | 1B | 1 | 5-4 |
| 8/15/1998 | 12 | Pit | 7-7 | Ray Lankford | 1B | 1 | 8-7 |
| 8/28/1998 | 10 | Atl | 4-4 | Ron Gant | 1B | 1 | 5-4 |
| 5/7/1999 | 9 | Pit | 2-2 | Shawon Dunston | HR | 2 | 4-2 |
| 5/16/1999 | 9 | LA | 3-4 | Ray Lankford | HR | 2 | 5-4 |
| 5/27/1999 | 12 | SF | 2-2 | Eric Davis | WP | 3-2 | |
| 6/12/1999 | 14 | Det | 7-7 | Edgar Renteria | 1B | 1 | 8-7 |
| 6/22/1999 | 14 | Hou | 3-3 | Mark McGwire | 1B | 1 | 4-3 |
| 7/3/1999 | 10 | Arz | 1-1 | Mark McGwire | BB | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7/7/1999 | 9 | Cin | 0-1 | Darren Bragg | HR | 2 | 2-1 |
| 7/15/1999 | 13 | ChW | 2-2 | Darren Bragg | E3 | 3-2 | |
| 8/15/1999 | 9 | ChC | 4-5 | Craig Paquette | 1B | 2 | 6-5 |
| 8/17/1999 | 9 | Phi | 4-5 | Craig Paquette | 2B | 2 | 6-5 |
| 9/29/1999 | 10 | SD | 5-5 | Placido Polanco | FC | 1 | 6-5 |
| 6/22/2000 | 9 | SF | 10-10 | Craig Paquette | 1B | 1 | 11-10 |
| 6/23/2000 | 12 | LA | 6-6 | Craig Paquette | HR | 3 | 9-6 |
| 6/25/2000 | 9 | LA | 1-1 | Larry Sutton | 1B | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8/7/2000 | 11 | Fla | 1-1 | J.D. Drew | 1B | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8/10/2000 | 9 | Col | 4-4 | Jim Edmonds | 2B | 1 | 5-4 |
| 8/18/2000 | 9 | Phi | 6-6 | Carlos Hernandez | 1B | 1 | 7-6 |
| 9/1/2000 | 9 | NYM | 5-5 | Jim Edmonds | HR | 1 | 6-5 |
| 9/2/2000 | 9 | NYM | 1-1 | Fernando Vina | 1B | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9/3/2000 | 9 | NYM | 3-3 | Jim Edmonds | HR | 1 | 4-3 |
| 4/9/2001 | 9 | Col | 2-2 | Ray Lankford | WP | 3-2 | |
| 6/23/2001 | 9 | SF | 5-5 | Mike Matheny | 1B | 1 | 6-5 |
| 8/17/2001 | 9 | Phi | 3-3 | Placido Polanco | SF | 1 | 4-3 |
| 4/10/2002 | 11 | Mil | 5-5 | Eduardo Perez | HR | 1 | 6-5 |
| 4/13/2002 | 9 | Hou | 1-1 | Eli Marrero | 1B | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5/22/2002 | 9 | Hou | 2-2 | J.D. Drew | HR | 1 | 3-2 |
| 7/28/2002 | 9 | ChC | 4-9 | Edgar Renteria | HR | 3 | 10-9 |
| 8/22/2002 | 9 | Pit | 2-4 | Fernando Vina | 2B | 2 | 5-4 |
| 9/7/2002 | 13 | ChC | 5-5 | Ivan Cruz | 1B | 1 | 6-5 |
| 9/24/2002 | 9 | Arz | 2-2 | Edgar Renteria | 1B | 1 | 3-2 |
| 5/1/2003 | 10 | NYM | 5-5 | Jim Edmonds | HR | 1 | 6-5 |
| 7/12/2003 | 11 | Pit | 7-7 | Albert Pujols | HR | 2 | 9-7 |
| 7/27/2003 | 9 | Pit | 1-3 | Albert Pujols | 1B | 1 | 4-3 |
| 8/21/2003 | 9 | Pit | 3-3 | Jim Edmonds | HR | 3 | 6-3 |
| 8/28/2003 | 9 | ChC | 2-2 | Kerry Robinson | HR | 1 | 3-2 |
| 9/20/2003 | 13 | Hou | 2-2 | Albert Pujols | HR | 1 | 3-2 |
| 4/29/2004 | 13 | Phi | 4-4 | Jim Edmonds | HR | 1 | 5-4 |
| 4/30/2004 | 9 | ChC | 3-3 | Mike Matheny | BB | 1 | 4-3 |
| 5/2/2004 | 10 | ChC | 0-0 | Scott Rolen | 1B | 1 | 1-0 |
| 6/17/2004 | 9 | Oak | 2-4 | Reggie Sanders | 1B | 1 | 5-4 |
| 6/18/2004 | 10 | Cin | 3-3 | Albert Pujols | HR | 1 | 4-3 |
| 8/4/2004 | 9 | Mon | 4-4 | Albert Pujols | HR | 1 | 5-4 |
| 8/7/2004 | 9 | NYM | 1-1 | Yadier Molina | 1B | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9/5/2004 | 11 | LA | 5-5 | Reggie Sanders | 1B | 1 | 6-5 |
| 9/17/2004 | 9 | Arz | 3-3 | Jim Edmonds | 3B | 1 | 4-3 |
| 10/20/2004 | 12 | Hou | 4-4 | Jim Edmonds | HR | 2 | 6-4 |
| 4/23/2005 | 10 | Hou | 0-0 | Larry Walker | 1B | 1 | 1-0 |
| 5/24/2005 | 12 | Pit | 1-1 | Yadier Molina | 1B | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7/3/2005 | 9 | Col | 4-4 | Abraham Nunez | 1B | 1 | 5-4 |
| 7/15/2005 | 13 | Hou | 2-3 | Albert Pujols | HR | 2 | 4-3 |
| 7/22/2005 | 11 | ChC | 1-1 | David Eckstein | sac | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8/7/2005 | 9 | Atl | 1-3 | David Eckstein | HR | 4 | 5-3 |
| 8/19/2005 | 9 | SF | 0-4 | Jim Edmonds | 2B | 2 | 5-4 |
| 9/12/2005 | 9 | Pit | 3-3 | John Rodriguez | 1B | 1 | 4-3 |
| 9/13/2005 | 9 | Pit | 4-4 | David Eckstein | 1B | 1 | 5-4 |
| 4/16/2006 | 9 | Cin | 6-7 | Albert Pujols | HR | 2 | 8-7 |
| 4/26/2006 | 9 | Pit | 3-3 | Albert Pujols | 1B | 1 | 4-3 |
| 5/31/2006 | 11 | Hou | 3-3 | So Taguchi | 1B | 1 | 4-3 |
| 6/28/2006 | 9 | Cle | 3-4 | David Eckstein | E6 | 5-4 | |
| 7/13/2006 | 14 | LA | 2-2 | Albert Pujols | HR | 1 | 3-2 |
| 7/15/2006 | 10 | LA | 1-1 | Scott Rolen | 1B | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8/17/2006 | 9 | Cin | 1-1 | Scott Rolen | 1B | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8/26/2006 | 9 | ChC | 1-1 | Gary Bennett | 1B | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8/27/2006 | 9 | ChC | 6-6 | Gary Bennett | HR | 4 | 10-6 |
| 9/12/2006 | 9 | Hou | 4-5 | Albert Pujols | 2B | 2 | 6-5 |
| 6/5/2007 | 9 | Cin | 3-3 | So Taguchi | 1B | 1 | 4-3 |
| 6/20/2007 | 14 | KC | 6-6 | Ryan Ludwick | HR | 1 | 7-6 |
| 7/28/2007 | 9 | Mil | 4-6 | Ryan Ludwick | 1B | 1 | 7-6 |
| 9/19/2007 | 10 | Phi | 1-1 | Yadier Molina | 1B | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9/23/2007 | 9 | Hou | 1-3 | Rick Ankiel | 3B | 2 | 4-3 |
| 4/26/2008 | 9 | Hou | 3-3 | Skip Schumaker | 1B | 1 | 4-3 |
| 5/2/2008 | 11 | ChC | 3-3 | Skip Schumaker | HR | 2 | 5-3 |
| 5/17/2008 | 10 | TB | 8-8 | Ryan Ludwick | HR | 1 | 9-8 |
| 5/18/2008 | 9 | TB | 4-4 | Skip Schumaker | 2B | 1 | 5-4 |
| 6/15/2008 | 10 | Phi | 6-6 | Chris Duncan | E1 | 0 | 7-6 |
| 7/2/2008 | 9 | NYM | 7-7 | Troy Glaus | HR | 1 | 8-7 |
| 7/5/2008 | 9 | ChC | 2-4 | Rick Ankiel | 1B | 2 | 5-4 |
| 7/20/2008 | 9 | SD | 4-4 | Aaron Miles | HR | 4 | 9-5 |
| 8/5/2008 | 11 | LA | 4-4 | Ryan Ludwick | HR | 2 | 6-4 |
| 9/9/2008 | 9 | ChC | 3-3 | Cesar Izturis | FC | 1 | 4-3 |
| 9/26/2008 | 9 | Cin | 6-6 | Troy Glaus | SF | 1 | 7-6 |
| 7/1/2009 | 10 | SF | 1-1 | Colby Rasmus | HR | 1 | 2-1 |
As always, thanks to Tom Orf for serving up the meaty raw data.
The walkoff home run by Rasmus came in game number 80, not quite half way through the season.