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Brian Walton's news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals (TM) and their minor league system

Time to admit there WAS “dry powder”


Despite what some think, the St. Louis Cardinals are spending money. Where is all the “DeWallet” whining now?


Thursday’s official confirmation that the St. Louis Cardinals organization has formally signed 16-year-old Dominican outfielder Wagner Mateo (pictured) for a reported $3.1 million signing bonus comes on top of last Saturday’s trade for Major League infielder/outfielder Mark DeRosa.

Mateo’s deal is almost three times the organization’s largest previous bonus paid to a Latin American amateur, the $1.1 million reportedly given to last July 2nd’s big signing, third baseman Roberto De La Cruz, also from the Dominican Republic.

Putting aside the risks of doling out that much money to kid of just 16 years of age, one cannot dispute the Cardinals’ willingness to make such a significant financial commitment to someone they believe can grow into being an impact Major Leaguer down the road.

In securing the services of DeRosa, a free agent following this season, the Cardinals took on a half-season’s worth of his salary, approximately $2.8 million. The aggressive move was made a month earlier than the trade deadline and put the Cardinals’ National League Central opponents on the defensive – a marked change from 2008, when the shoe was on the other foot.

This total of about $6 million ($3.1 for Mateo and $2.8 for DeRosa) does not represent expenditures that the organization was required to make. They were clearly carried out with a balanced view toward the present (DeRosa) and the future (Mateo).

In the DeRosa deal, the Cardinals also gave up two of their “precious Faberge eggs”, reliever Chris Perez and a player to be named later, rumored to be among a list of players that include pitchers Jess Todd (our Scout.com fourth-ranked Cardinals prospect) and Francisco Samuel (19th on the same list).

So, I have read all the criticism and the childish name-calling for months. Where are the columns now that give credit where credit is due to the ownership group for dealing and spending to improve and invest?

Here is one.

I admit that I was among the skeptics when club officials said over the winter that they would be keeping some of their powder dry – in other words, not immediately spending all of their expense budget in this tough economy while holding back until during the season.

It was easy to assume this was a hollow promise designed to soften the blow of a reduced Major League player budget compared to 2008. Some critics chose to ignore both the eroding economy as well as a significant trend all across MLB to cut player expenditures, as if the Cardinals were isolated and insulated from the rest of the world.

So far, the organization has lived up to its word.

Yet if the club continues to flail on the field, these expenditures will quickly be forgotten amid the pleas to spend more via acquiring other Major Leaguers for the final two or three months.

Though in an ideal world, we would all probably like to see the Cardinals commit more and more, it is time to admit that they have followed through in a tangible manner and not let their positive moves this week be taken for granted.

50 Responses to “Time to admit there WAS “dry powder””

  1. Not everyone was critical of the front office and calling names. *shurg*

    I expected them to make a move if one was there, and they did. Very happy with the deal. I think Mozeliak is doing a wonderful job with a thankless task of trying to win every year for a rabid fan base.

  2. Brian says:

    Agreed – not everyone, PHE. But some voices are louder than others…

  3. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    You really don’t want to go here. I will admit that the CARDINAL ORGANIZATION is spending DeWitt money. They did not pay DeRosa money from this account ……………………. If they sign their number 1draft pick from the dry powder account, I will conceded the argument. Until then, I contend they will not sign the number 1 or AP for that matter. Love you guys.

  4. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    This team is on the verge of collapse. I’m not sure if even the rocks will protect it. Ownership must guard against appearing incompetent by making move like this. Visionary moves. I all fairness the value of its current investment is depreciating so fast, they may not be able to give some of these guys away before the break. Starting pitching is taking on water and nothing is going to redeem the hitters. I will make this bold prediction. The Cardinals will make another signing. He will be a African American with a bat hopefully to fill a vacancy in the roster.

  5. Axcion says:

    Clearly the youth movement is a calculated gamble to keep the salaries down so they can resign Albert. Smart business if you ask me. Unfortunately Pujols is very much a competitor and he wants to win every year. Sacrificing the past couple years may not sit well with him.
    Brian, I have the utmost respect for you but I’m going to take you to task on this one. It was the management who promised to be aggressive in the offseason and then frustrated the fans by doing nothing but sign fruit that was so low hanging it was actually on the ground. It was this great business plan that landed us Khalil Greene and by the way, judging by how Gregerson has performed I’d say the Padres won that trade. They made their own beds and thus earned the wrath of the paying faithful.
    Speaking of which, it is the fans who pay for the product and as such deserve to demand the best. They make DeWitt tons of money every year, that can’t be denied. St.Louis is a fantastic baseball town with a tremendous history thanks to the continued support of it’s fan base. In most cases, you get what you pay for and Cardinal fans flock to Busch Stadium just enough to pay for more then just average. At the end of the 2008 season Mo made the strategic mistake of ‘opening mouth…inserting foot’ and therefore the maker of his own demise. True he was undercut by the economy through DeWitt, which wasn’t really fair to Mo, however, when you brag you’re going to buy caviar and come back with imitation pigeon eggs it’s YOUR empty promise everyone remembers. More than a few astute fans realized Mo had his feet taken out from under him by DeWallet (as you call him) and redirected their anger and frustration of being lied to. DeWitt was, of course, protecting his business by cutting back the spending during economic hardship, however, the loss in revenue that he predicted has not been felt thanks to the loyal fans.
    The fans have upheld their end of the bargain by continuing their support and that, more than anything, forced the team to make the upgrades the fans demanded.
    Having said all that, the Cardinals have invested a heck of a lot more money into their minor league system to improve the future product. The truth is that tangible results weren’t expected to be felt from the ‘new and improved’ farm system until 2010 and beyond. The future appears to be bright, however, it’s the present the fans are whining about. Keep in mind the fans are worried about two things: 1) Losing Pujols because he doesn’t think the team is doing enough to win, not to mention Larussa and company. 2) Finishing behind the Cubs is a complete and unacceptable disgrace and the organization is obliged to do every thing in their power to prevent this from happening.
    The bottom line is that fans spend their money to see a winner NOW, not 2015 and as such demand the organization invest their hard earned money just the way they want it. To me, that’s fair!

  6. Brian says:

    Axcion, you are not taking me to task here. The trenches in this battle were dug deeply a long time ago.

    I do have one correction and one comment. I have never used the term “DeWallet” except in reference to the ownership bashers who coined and repeat it ad nauseum.

    How could the fans supposedly “demanded” the moves the team made this week? First of all, 99% of all Cardinals fans have never heard of Wagner Mateo and have no idea about what the Cards are doing overseas. I would hazard a guess that most would rather spend the $3+M on Matt Holliday or the like.

    Second of all, the fans “demands” were arguably even greater last season and the team did nothing. Apparently you think that ownership just started listening…

    Instead, I think these moves were made because the Cards have a plan and are working it. I don’t believe for a minute that the actions were driven by media or fan pressure.

  7. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    If I were a good citizen, courteous and thoughtful, I would have been proud to have writen that Axcion. Very nice.

  8. JumboShrimp says:

    When Mo referred to “low hanging fruit”, he did not mean lousy ballplayers. He was referring to timing. Some players are signable early. The team has a lot of things it needs to do every off-season, so it does not want to delay filling in gaps, just because a closer or slugger has not been landed. We always try to settle backup catcher early. We sign LaRue and his ilk early. Its not a huge contract and is usually finalized early. We were able to recruit Trevor Miller early. In contrast, we had to wait until spring to get Reyes to lower his price.

    K. Greene had an outstanding year as recently as 2007. TLR is good at helping guys rebound. I would trade set up RHps like Gregerson and Worrell for a quality SS anytime. So far, this gamble has not worked out well for the Cards, but its a gamble Mo had to make, because SS is a valuable position.

    The Cards will have lower revenues this year, even if not as low as worse case fears. Since this recession will be long-lived, its important to for the business to live within its means and adapt to economic realities.

    A lot of fans find it therapeutic to vent on bulletin boards. Its to be expected. Some columnists earn their livings stoking anger in fans. Also par for the course.

  9. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    And what then Brian? These signings are huge speculations. Will they play and flex the system to justify their investment for 6 years until he becomes another well decorated egg. My point isn’t even questioning their judgment on this. I haven’t scouted the kid. Considering all of their activities, this is just another way of suggesting that they know what there doing, when there appears to be mounting evidence that they don’t. You can just tell that a 16yr old is going to out preform a salary minimum Joe Thurston or the lot. Listening to the Albert hype on SF sports shows in the last days, the gap is widening daily about his suitability to stay a Cardinal. They are saying its worth the price to travel just to see this guy play, whether your a Cardinal fan or not. This Mateo signing is a gesture intended for other purposes. And they are many. How about this one. In two years, when he is in the farm system, use him as trade bait, thus changing funny money into legit. Sports laundering will call it. These are of course wild speculations, a product of my over active imagination.

  10. JumboShrimp says:

    The signing of Winston Mateo is consistent with what the Cards have been doing, which is gradually boosting their foreign recruitment. They began to reinvent the Latin effort after 04. A bonus baby in 2005 was OF Edgar Lara. Lara spent 06 in the DSL, 07 in the GCL, 08 in Johnson City, and given another go round at Johnson City this year, is excelling in the early going. This is encouraging.

    Last year they invested lots more money in Delacruz and Valeera. This year, took it up another notch and outbid everybody for Mateo. Its a free market, not draft socialism to reward losers. Teams have to use smarts in foreign recruitment. Teams have to choose thoughtfully where to place cash bets.

  11. JumboShrimp says:

    A comment of mine may have gotten hung up. I will try again, in fewer words.

    For perspective, OF Lara was the big signing in fall 05. He spent 06 playing in the DSL, 07 in the Gulf Coast League, 08 at Johnson City. This summer, Lara has gotten off to a great start at Johnson City. This is encouraging. We found a muscular guy, have been training him, and he is now delivering.

    It usually takes a long time to make a major leaguer. From the Dominican to the Majors can take 8 years. Many fans live by how the ML team is faring right now, so will not care too much about amateur signings. The team has to take the long term perspective required to succeed in this industry.

  12. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Get him up here Jumbo!!!!!!!! We are favored tonight and are expected to score 5 or 6. Will we slap the curve like they’ve slapped ours? Will we shorten up and hit singles? These guys hit what Wellemeyer throws. Hope we find a hero, or score with them for 6. we should be ok after that.

  13. bigchieftootiemontana says:

    Shelby Miller will be signed, hopefully sooner than the deadline this summer. Ownership is making an effort for a successful future and a contending present.

    It is difficult to know exactly how many of these high upside signings will contribute over time, but at least the attempt is being made via quality picks and signings. It’s fun to follow these kids from Johnson City, GCL, VSL etc. and on up thru the system.

    I do think the Cardinals had to do something before the All-Star break via trade not only to improve the team but also to discourage picket signs outside the ballpark all star week.

    It could be light years worse–we could be KC Royals fans
    http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/07/02/stupid-is/

    There are some scary similarities with the way injuries are handled in both organizations but if you look at the past 13 years or so the Cardinals have had much more success than many organizations.

  14. Brian says:

    chief, the thought of a preemptive move before the ASG for PR purposes as well as baseball reasons also crossed my mind…

    Of course, Khalil Greene’s latest relapse could be an equally viable reason to have increased the urgency.

  15. JumboShrimp says:

    We are up to 41 signings from the June US amateur draft, 82 percent. Just 9 unsigned and about 7 weeks left to negotiate with them.

    The Cards will show Miller enough money that he would be well advised to accept the offer.

  16. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Lohse just gave up a dong. I’m laughing because I was going to call it.

  17. bigchieftootiemontana says:

    I missed details on Khalil’s relapse. Have there been any details? Just more of the same? Too bad, I thought the move to third was settling him down.

  18. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    There are few details Chief. They are watching him very close, and to be honest, he was Jonesing. I believe you won’t see him again. If they are using pharmaceuticals, and just playing with types or dosages, it is especially grim.

  19. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Lohse is starting to use all pitches now so its going allot easier. He will probably take the Loss because it remains 1/0. He is likely to go 5 it looks like.

  20. Axcion says:

    Brian, I am in no way associating the signing of Wagner Mateo as a forced move. Let me be clear on this; I am 97.365% behind Luhnow and the fantastic job he has done since being empowered to do so. I watched the scouting video and I love this kids swing. I’m on board with the signing of this kid all the way. This acquisition had nothing to do with fan pressure on the team to do something about the main club’s failings. Mo and DeWitt had immense pressure from the fans, media and more importantly Larussa to get him something tangible to work with. Both of these gents might as well move out of town if Albert signs somewhere else and if you don’t think that’s pressure # 1 on them, well then you and I just aren’t as like minded as I always thought.

    Yes, I do think they made a trade to appease a lot of people; mostly Tony and Albert. They didn’t act last year and lost us an opportunity to make the playoffs. They were soundly and rightfully critisized for that. In the off-season they jumped on a Mississippi River Boat and gambled on a falling star(Greene). (Hey, I liked the deal at the time.) Mo acquired a bunch of lack talent LOOGY”s that were suppose to fill the gap in the bullpen, but a few weeks into spring training had Duncan and TLR begging for another quality lefty; enter Reyes.

    Of course the FO has a plan and are working it. It’s just not one a lot of fans agree with apparently. In defense of the team a heck of a lot more was expected out of Ludwick, Ankiel, Duncan, Glaus and Wellemeyer. On the other hand, Ryan, Franklin and Pineiro have exceeded their expectations. Optimism was high in April from everyone. Who could have forseen this offensive collapse?! It’s broken and fans expect the people responsible to fix it. This certainly calls for a deviation from the plan and what good plan doesn’t have contingencies?

    The good news is we’re not Cubs fans or we’d be really pissed. The bad news is we’re an average team at best. The Great news is that we still have an excellent chance to win the division and correct me if I’m wrong, but that’s a huge revenue stream. Are you listening Bill? We have a lot of minor leaguers who won’t fit on the 40-man this off-season and that means losing them for $50 grand in the rule 5. Besides, who says you can’t trade salary for salary if you get really creative.

  21. SoonerinNC says:

    I agree that the Cardinals clearly have a plan and are following it.

    The organization is pretty full of solid if not spectacular prospects that they have been acquiring since 2005.

    Now they are going for the more high risk, high reward guys like Miller, Mateo, Kelly, Stock and Bittle.

    The Cardinals are in contention for a division title with only a handful of impact major league players. It doesn’t take one at every position and sometimes that doesn’t do the job as the Yankees have proven.

    Albert is not going anywhere. He is not the type of guy who is going to the highest bidder and he has already earned a ton of money. He does not have the kind of ego of an ARod. And the Cardinals are smart enough to know that they cannot afford to let him leave town. His jersey sales alone must be paying a sizeable part of the tab. A Cardinal game has always been a sea of red but now even more so and a high percentage of the jerseys worn at the games have 5 on them.

    I liked the Greene trade and still do even if he doesn’t have another major league batting appearance. You have to ask yourself what chance would Gregerson have of making the Cardinal team. Probably not much of one. Would you rather have him than Motte or McClellan or Perez. The Padres are desperate for pitching and that is why Gregerson and Perdomo are still on their roster. Relief pitchers with ERA’s under 3.00 are not hard to find. The Giants just left town with 4 under 3.03 on their staff and that doesn’t include their closer. The Reds who we are facing tonight have 5 under 2.36. Had Greene returned to 07 form we would be dancing in the streets. So while we may get nothing for the Greene trade it was still worth the effort. Fortunately Ryan and until lately Greene have admirably filled the gap.

    There are always a number of message board and grandstand cowboys who think they could do a better job of running the team than the current leadership. Thankfully they are not in charge. The team gets slammed for not making a high risk move and then gets slammed for making one. Well that keeps the media employed and message boards hot.

  22. CariocaCardinal says:

    I lost a lot of faith in the Card’s “plan” when they didn’t draft Porcello. In fact, overall I don’t think their drafting has been consistent with their announced plan. Maybe they will turn the corner yet.

    You can’t evaluate the Greene trade without talking about the $6 million he was owed. That was a huge opportunity cost.

    Gregerson would be on the Cards now if he was in our system.

    We could use a few more of those sub 3.00 relief guys!

  23. Axcion says:

    SoonerinNC; We’ve drafted a number of high risk pitchers like McCormick, Webber, Daley and Ottavino who haven’t panned out…yet. These guys were all power arms the organization thought they could harness and couldn’t. They all had control issues when drafted and never changed. Although there is still a slight hope for Ottavino.

    BigChief; I’m with you. I get on the computer every night to see how our boys in the minors are progressing. It is enjoyable to follow their development up through our farm system. Part of being a fan of the organization rather than just the major league team. Someone mentioned Edgar Lara; he has intriging power and could (with the flick of a switch) become a top prospect. He’s not that far off. Same with Jon Edwards.

  24. easton714 says:

    Carioca,

    I completely agree with every point in your last post.

  25. Axcion says:

    When is Porcello going to be a free agent?

  26. Brian says:

    Probably in 5 1/2 years.

  27. JumboShrimp says:

    When Porcello was drafted, Walt Jocketty was GM. Walt was averse to high school pitchers in round 1. The Cards went 31 years, 1978 to 2009, without using their top pick on a high school pitcher, so the aversion pre-dated Walt too.

    In 2007, when Porcello turned pro, 25 teams gave him a pass, including teams with much more money for amateur bonuses than the mid-market Cards.

    Its nice that Gregerson is experiencing some success in San Diego. His example supports the Cards approach of scouting small colleges for talent. This year, set up reliever Pete Parise has done well at AA/AAA, like Gregerson a converted right fielder.

    Mo must have gotten fed up watching Cesar Izturis hit, so was happy to be able to devote more budget to K Greene. The Cards may need to add mental health to their checkoff list on evaluating trade ideas, though morale is hard to factor. Many players available in trade have had a falling out with their present team and have acquired a reputation as a malcontent. Yet many of these guys can rebound in a new situation.

  28. JumboShrimp says:

    The Cards have recruited effective talent evaluators for Latin America, including Juan Mercado (if I recall his name correctly). He turned up some good players for the Mets.

    We added an entry level squad in the Gulf Coast league (returning there after leaving in about 1978).

    We now routinely blend talent from Latin America into the US development ladder. SS Solano and closer Samuel are examples who have reached AAA and AA.

    The natural progression has now been to step up and gamble money on a few of the most sought after Latin amateurs. This happenned last year in signing Delacruz and Valera, both now in the GCL, to be joined by Mateo next year. Luhnow will have to learn not to set overlofty expectations, as he did by predicting DelaCruz would skip over the GCL. Its a long climb to the majors for 16 year old bonus babies. Not all will be lucky and good enough.

  29. JumboShrimp says:

    Part of the chorus of complaints about Porcello hinge on doubts about Kozma. High school SSes can be long shot gambles. Yet Kozma is lately doing pretty well at AA, given his accelerated pace. There is good chance Kozma will someday develop into a useful ML ballplayer.

  30. Axcion says:

    Brian, please clear something up for me. When does a major league players clock start toward free agency? Is it when they are drafted, when they’re put on the 40 man or when they actually debut? When the clock starts how many years does the team have control over them?

  31. Axcion says:

    Jumbo; I agree the Cards have done a terrific job of moving into the latin countries. The past few years they’ve signed 5 to 8 sixteen year old players each year. This year for July 1st; 1 with a big signing bonus. Looks like they’re staying within the same budget. Quality over quantity. They did sign quite a few to fill out their DSL & VSL rosters, which they do every year. But these are guys 17 and over.

  32. s.f. says:

    Axcion – the free agency clock is based on actual time on the active major league roster (including major league DL). Time spent on the 40-man while in the minors doesn’t count. It takes six full years of major league service to qualify for free agency.

    That’s the down and dirty without getting into considerations for options, arbitration eligibility and so forth.

  33. JumboShrimp says:

    Axion, some considerations about Latin signees. Lads can sign at 16, but cannot begin to play until 17. While newly eligibles can sign in early July, older players can be signed year around. Lots of very good ML players once turned pro for small bonuses, while not all bonus babies reach the majors.
    The Cards typically disclose July signings around the middle of the month. They may have recruited more kids, in addition to Mateo. We shall see.
    Pujols and Polanco were Dominican immigrants to the US who turned pro from junior colleges. They serve to illustrate that signing at an older age was no hindrance. In the States, the educational system provides amateur competition to a higher age. Since this opportunity is less prevalent in Latin America, many turn pro at an earlier age.

  34. Brian says:

    Axcion, s.f. hit the basics well. If you want to wallow into the details of options and outrighting and how they affect service time and the ability of a club to send players down to the minors, I posted a four-part article on Scout a few years ago. Part one is free while the other three were subscriber content.

  35. Axcion says:

    Thanks everyone! I appreciate the enlightenment on that. I’m just wondering why Boras insisted on Porcello being added to the 40 man roster before he’d sign with anyone. To me there was no other reason other than it would make Rick a free agent sooner. Now it just seems like a stupid demand with no tangible effect on anything other then handicapping Detroit.

    I had this arguement with Carioca a way back. While I’d love to have a pitcher of his talent on our team. It seems to me that the man’s a headcase that would take off to the Yankees as soon as his six years were up. I want team players not ME players.

    Not that I’m a big fan of Kozma. For a guy who’s suppose to be so great defensively he’s tallied 70 errors in 2+ years. Making the Porcello non-pick look even worse.

  36. Brian says:

    Axcion, this subject is like an onion. Boras was not out to hurt Detroit. He was giving his man more flexibility.

    Once a player is put on the 40-man roster, he can only spend three years in the minors before he either has to be kept in the majors or be exposed to waivers. (These are called option years.)

    While hindsight is 20-20 on Porcello, it seems only Cardinals fans are upset despite many other teams also having passed on his demands. To me, it feels more a lack of confidence in Kozma.

    I don’t know the young man, Mr. Porcello, but I imagine his career plan, including free agency, is being carefully and blatantly orchestrated by Mr. Boras.

  37. DizzyDean17 says:

    Actually, Porcello would be eligible for a fourth option year if it is used prior to the completion of his fifth year in pro ball. Anthony Reyes had a fourth option in 2008 under that rule.

  38. Brian says:

    Correct, DD. We will water torture Axcion to a most painful death via citing baseball’s obscure rules… ;-)

  39. JumboShrimp says:

    Errors by A level short-stops and 3rd basemen can seem lofty by the lower frequency of errors by ML players. Encouragingly, a lot of ML players used to ring-up errors in the low minors too. There are probably multiple factors that contribute to explaining this.

    Something that may get lost in the Porcello discussion is fans assume the team had the spending discretion in 2007 to have signed Porcello. This is not a crazy assumption, however, the economics of signing amateurs can be its own separate universe. The Cards may not have had the budgetary resources to afford Porcello in summer 2007.

  40. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Anyone read anything about the high end international market collapsing a bit, maybe leaving the Cards as the big spenders?

  41. Brian says:

    During the off-season, I read speculation somewhere that due to the economic downturn, clubs might cut their international budgets because they receive much less external scrutiny than what is spent in the USA.

    I also heard that Boras wants $50 million for Strasburg and the Nats have already offered $20 million. Wow! It is a side point to a side point, but I am really amused when I read that Strasburg is a one-in-a-decade talent. I believe that Boras said the same thing about Porcello two years ago. Apparently his decades are shorter than ours…

  42. JumboShrimp says:

    In general, many financial markets have experienced a downturn over the past couple of years, since deflation of an asset bubble began. Recognizing this, baseball too began to cut back on expenditures last winter.
    Meanwhile as regards amateurs, the Cards have headed in another direction. Mateo was their biggest bonus ever and triple their highest for a foreign athlete. They went for a first round pick in Miller who may be costly, and have signed 42 other guys already.
    Daddy DeWitt is the last of the red hot spenders!

  43. Brian says:

    Jumbo, a number of the critics are too narrow-minded to look at anything beyond the USA Today MLB player salary database. Whether it is accurate or not is immaterial. And of course, it does not reflect many club expenditures.

  44. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    I’m certainly not going to criticize Billiam anymore. Cards International. A stand alone business no doubt. This guy has done his homework. Any guesses as to whom Lohse faces Sunday? Wainwright and Lohse, is that correct?

  45. easton714 says:

    I did read that Sano’s bonus might plummet. Someone, I do not recall who (Arangure, probably), said he might only get $1-1.5MM now.

  46. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Thanks Easton, I thought I read that somewhere. Why would a kid take a low offer at 16yrs old if someone speculates that he is worth more I wonder?

  47. JumboShrimp says:

    I agree that Sano’s bonus might slip, though not for the reason suspected by Arangure. It seems like Arangure thinks Sano is a late first round talent, hence his bonus should be under $1.5MM. But the Latin market is separate from that of the US, so this is not reasonable. The international market is a free, competitive market for player services, and bonuses are not dampened by the allocation of rights to players via a monopolistic draft. So Sano’s bonus might be much higher than a similar player would command, if a US citizen.

    However, where Sano could possibly lose bonus money is in relation to age and identity investigation. If everything were crystal clear on those counts, he presumably would have signed already. Some questions must presently be unresolved and if the poor answers come to light in due course, then Sano could be suspended from signing or find lower offers. If the ongoing investigation supports him, then he could be looking at $4MM. A lot hinges on the investigation.

  48. CariocaCardinal says:

    at $1.0 – $1.5 million I hope we get back in the ball game.

  49. Axcion says:

    Water torture Brian, that’s not bad considering my wife would prefer i were Drawn and Quartered. Sorry to sink everyone into the depths of a collective bargaining agreement discussion. Usually I want to go have a shower after talking about the CBA.

    Jumbo, after winning the World Series in 2006 I would think we could have afforded Porcello just from the souvenir sales, but I know what you mean about the draft budgets. I’m sure if we took Rick, 5 or six other guys wouldn’t have gotten their dreams realized.

    Brian, now that Fehr is gone, Boras is the biggest cancer in baseball. I hate to be as cold-hearted as Boras, but if he met his demise tomorrow it would be a great day for baseball.

  50. JumboShrimp says:

    There is a report that the Red Sox are signing a 19 year old Cuban refugee SS for $8MM. This may be helpful perspective. Wagner Mateo was a very pricey $3.1MM, but part of the reason is because he is believed to be 16 years old, still a high risk venture. If a more polished amateur comes on the market, the Sox dont mind spending huger bucks, like this SS or D-Mat for $100MM. So yes, Mateo is a risky bet. If he were a surer thing, he would cost a lot more.

    A funny thing has happenned with the Latin market. It used to be that amateurs cost very little. The Cards had a $4,000 signing bonus limit. A lot of teams found stars for small bonuses. And as a result, it did not really matter what the age of a kid was claimed to be, because the financial stakes were so small. If he was 20, but said he was 16, there was not really a reason to care.

    With the increased competition for Dominican and Venezuelan kids, the signing bonuses have gone way up. This gives the players and buscones abundant reasons to fib about ages and identities, because they will want to give a kid the new identity of someone who genuinely was born 16 years ago. And with bonuses getting big, then some team employees may game the system and find ways to steal money too. And another problem: when kids are taking new identities or lying about their ages, then they are being admitted to the US under false pretenses and breaking the law, so the Department of Homeland Security will not find that funny.

    MLB has assigned one of its top guys Sandy Alderson, lawyer and ex-Marine, to investigate the Latin signing mess and clean it up. Some heads are going to roll. If kids are found to have signed under false names or ages, they may get bounced out of US ball.

    A few years back, the Cards largest signing was RF Ryde Rodriguez, a Cuban refugee, 19 years old reportedly. He signed for $465,000. Right now, this is looking like a good decision for the Cards. Ryde is hitting fine at Batavia, a reasonable rung for him to be at. We knew he was at least 19, not one of these pretend 16 year olds.

    Valera the SS looks to be holding his own in the Gulf Coast League, if only 17. He may turn out well in due course. Roberto De La Cruz may be only 17 as well. He may turn out well in the long run, because if he really is just 17, then there is nothing wrong with spending a couple of summers in the Gulf Coast League. Neither Valera or Delacruz got to play summer ball in the VSL or DSL. They are very inexperienced.

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