The second of three days of the Major League Baseball 2009 First-Year Player Draft was completed on Wednesday afternoon. The St. Louis Cardinals selected 27 players in the second day that ended at the conclusion of the 30th round. On Thursday, the draft will conclude with rounds 31-50.
Among the Cards’ selections Wednesday were 13 pitchers, seven infielders, four outfielders, and three catchers. Fifth-round selection, shortstop Ryan Jackson from the University of Miami is pictured.
St. Louis began and ended their day with selections of pitchers from Ole Miss, with Joseph Bittle taken in the fourth round and Chris Corrigan in the 30th. Current Cardinals prospect Lance Lynn, now pitching at Double-A Springfield, is an Ole Miss alum and former teammate of the pair.
2009 FIRST-YEAR PLAYER DRAFT – CARDINALS’ DAY 2 RECAP
| Rd. | Player | Pos. | B-T | Ht. | Wt. | School | Hometown |
| 4 | Joseph Bittle | RHP | R-R | 6-2 | 190 | University of Mississippi | Texarkana, TX |
| 5 | Ryan Jackson | SS | R-R | 6-2 | 175 | University of Miami | Miami Springs, FL |
| 6 | Virgil Hill | OF | R-R | 6-0 | 185 | Los Angeles Mission College | Valencia, CA |
| 7 | Kyle Conley | OF | R-R | 6-4 | 215 | University of Washington | Richland, WA |
| 8 | Jason Stidham | SS | L-R | 5-11 | 170 | Florida State University | Palm Bay, FL |
| 9 | Nick McCully | RHP | R-R | 5-10 | 195 | Coastal Carolina University | Lakeland, FL |
| 10 | Hector Hernandez | LHP | S-L | 6-1 | 198 | Puerto Rico Baseball Academy | Carolina, PR |
| 11 | Alan Ahmady | 1B | R-R | 5-11 | 195 | Fresno State University | Fresno, CA |
| 12 | Pat Daugherty | LHP | L-L | 6-5 | 215 | Pearl River CC | Bailey, MS |
| 13 | Matt Carpenter | 3B | L-R | 6-3 | 208 | Texas Christian University | Sugar Land, TX |
| 14 | Ross Smith | OF | R-R | 6-2 | 200 | Middle Georgia College | Eastman, GA |
| 15 | David Washington | 1B | L-L | 6-5 | 200 | University City HS | University City, CA |
| 16 | Daniel Bibona | LHP | L-L | 6-0 | 170 | University of California- Irvine | Lake Forest, CA |
| 17 | Jonathan Rodriguez | 1B | R-R | 6-2 | 215 | Manatee JC | San Juan, PR |
| 18 | Anthony Garcia | C | R-R | 6-0 | 180 | San Juan Educational School | Carolina, PR |
| 19 | Travis Tartamella | C | R-R | 6-0 | 205 | California State University at LA | Alta Loma, CA |
| 20 | Scott Schneider | RHP | R-R | 6-0 | 175 | St. Mary’s College | Fallbrook, CA |
| 21 | Trevor Rosenthal | RHP | R-R | 6-2 | 190 | Cowley County CC | Lee Summit, MO |
| 22 | Joseph Bergman | 2B | L-R | 5-10 | 190 | College of Charleston | Jacksonville, FL |
| 23 | Matthew Adams | C | L-R | 6-3 | 245 | Slippery Rock University | Philipsburg, PA |
| 24 | Keith Butler | RHP | R-R | 6-0 | 175 | Wabash Valley College | Morgantown, KY |
| 25 | Josh Squatrito | RHP | R-R | 6-1 | 205 | Towson University | Willow Street, PA |
| 26 | Christian Beatty | OF | S-R | 5-10 | 190 | North Carolina A&T | Winston-Salem, NC |
| 27 | Johnathan Fulino | RHP | L-R | 6-4 | 190 | University of Connecticut | Quincy, MA |
| 28 | Justin Edwards | LHP | L-L | 6-2 | 188 | Kennesaw State University | Guyton, GA |
| 29 | Daniel Calhoun | LHP | L-L | 6-2 | 205 | Murray State University | Evansville, IN |
| 30 | Christopher Corrigan | RHP | R-R | 6-2 | 170 | University of Mississippi | Houston, TX |
Considering these guys from the viewpoint of their amateur backgrounds…..
High in the draft, the Cards tended to college juniors from advanced college programs: Stock (2), Kelly (3), Jackson (5), Stidham (8), McCully (9), Ahmady (11), Bibona (16) and arguably Smith (13). They also added seniors: Bittle (4), Conley (7), Carpenter (13). Within the top 16 rounds, 11 are from advanced collegiate competition.
Conley and Carpenter are in the tradition of college seniors Stavinoha, Craig, Hill in 2005-7. We hope they can contribute offense in the minors from day 1.
Who are exceptions from the tendency to advanced collegiates? Miller (1), HS pitcher with velocity. OF Hill (6); athletic, Hill had two years of juco ball. Lefty Hernandez (10) HS. Lefty Daugherty (12) two years at a juco. HS 1B Washington (15). These guys will be less developed and tend to take longer to train in the minors, but they like their potential. The team is hoping for good talent, given the draft round.
Smith (13) was classed a 3rd year juco, unusual. The son of Cards Georgia scout Roger (who signed Tyler Greene and Jess Todd), we drafted him out of HS circa round 32 in 2005. Smith began at Auburn U, but 4 years later is at a Georgia juco. He is classed a 3rd year, yet age wise might be considered a senior. (Drafting Smith twice is in keeping with drafting Joe Rigoli’s son in 2004 and again in 2008).
The Cards stuck to prime baseball geography until round 23 when they left the Sun Belt to select a player from small-time Slippery Rock in Pennsylvania. At 6’3″, 245, Matt Adams is this year’s Big Matt Arburr and likely to be shifted to 1B.
So many outstanding catchers have come from the island of Puerto Rico. Its not just Yadier Molina (rd 4, 2000) and his older brothers, but Pudge Rodriguez and the long-time catcher with the Yankees, among many. The Cards know of this tradition of excellence. They selected a PR catcher named Reyes in 2004 and finally signed him in 2006. In 2005, there was C Steve Gonzalez (rd 11). In 2009, they are trying to recruit Anthony Garcia (rd 18) from a San Juan high school. He is the 4th high schooler selected in this draft.
The 21st round pitcher, Rosenthal, has just one season of juco ball. He went to the same Kansas school, Cowley, as did 2B Junior Spivey, drafted and not signed by the Cards in 1995.
Swith-hitting OF Beatty (26) was twice male athlete of the year at North Carolina A & T, a historically black university. Great pros of yesteryear Andre Dawson and Vince Coleman played at Florida A & T, a similar institution.
Corrigan (30) was about the 6th hurler selected this year from the pitching staff at the Univ. of Mississippi. Must have been a good staff. Both he and Bittle (4) played high school in Texas.
Bittle was a 2nd rounder last year, who did not sign with the Yankees, possibly because of shoulder soreness. He red-shirted one year at a Texas juco because of shoulder tendanitis, so this is nothing new. The Cards should know full well his history, if a light weight like Jumbo knows, so they must feel optimistic about the prognosis, since he consumed a valuable 4th round pick. He throws a tremendous cutter. He is near ML ready, but fell in the draft because of the shoulder. College seniors do not have much negotiating leverage, so he would be looking at a bonus around an economical $90,000.
Jackson (5) and Stidham (8) indicate the Cards value SS. The Luhnow era likes investing in short-stops. Jackson is a slick fielder, near ML ready with the glove, maybe he can become a Mark Belanger type. He hit well as a sophmore, so we are betting he can bounce back from a slump as a junior.
Stidham was playing 2B this year, as David Eckstein did in college. The Cards are listing him as a SS. Stidham was a three year starter with a good batting average at Florida State, swings lefty. Might fair well in pro ball.
Among 11 picks, rounds 20-31, St-out vacuumed up 8 college pitchers. Of these 8, 4 were juniors, two seniors, one a sophmore (rd 24), and one a freshman (rd 21). We like loading up on signable pitchers.
We will see what they do in rounds 31 to 50, today. Probably quite a few raw talents from high schools or guys who did well at small colleges, like Curt Smith did at the Univ. of Maine last draft, so its hard to be confident how they will perform as pros, so they tumble in the draft.
So far, I dont see the Cards have selected high profile amateurs at low rounds who would take a big bonus to lure away from football or college. Big bonuses elate fans. Yet, if the Cards want to shell out big bonuses, they can save their money for the wide open market in elite Latin American players. Some of the juco or high school draftees may command some bonus, to dissuade them from college offers. A college senior like Conley (7) or Carpenter (13), not having negotiating leverage, could be looking at a bonus of $15,000, like college seniors Allen Craig or Nick Stavinoha got.
We once had OF John Rodriguez, J-Rod, now we are trying to sign 1B Jon Rodriguez.
In 2007, we drafted but could not sign Oregon State RHP Mike Stutes in the 9th round. He was circa 6′, knew how to pitch. This year’s 9th round guy McCully seems similar, 5’10″, RHP from Coastal Carolina. Not a big toolsy raw guy who scouts can dream on. Moneyball choice. Ahmady (11) is a bit like Steve Hill or John Gall. A smallish right swinging first baseman for Fresno State. Must be able to hit. If bigger, he would be a higher round.
Some guys are not moneyball selectees. Miller (1), Hill (6), Hernandez (10), Dougherty (12), Washington (15) are different. Dougherty had poor stats at a juco, but big lefties can be hard to come by, so we are gambling on his projection.
Last year, the Cards were able to sign almost everybody through the first 29 rounds. This was impressive. If we select them, we like to get them signed. The most uncertain to sign should fall to low rounds; last year there were about 5 high school pitchers at low rounds who decided to attend colleges; we gambled on them, but its fine if they chose school, since a little bit more education is seldom a negative for anyone, not just ballers.
Some place names can be fun. Willow Street is not a street and is in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania.
University City is part of greater San Diego. A big lefty swinging 1B out of San Diego. What’s not to like? I hope we can ink up Mr. David Washington.
Why select somebody like Corrigan if the 6th best draftable pitcher at Ole Miss? At some the major baseball colleges, they recruit a lot of good athletes and everybody is prospect. There may not be enough innings for them all. Corrigan only threw 8 innings this year, did not do well, and does not show up on the 2009 roster anymore, so could have left the team. However, if he were at a small school, he might have been able to rack up monster numbers. So you can’t just go by collegiate statistics in deciding who is worthy of drafting. Scouts have to consider tools, the context of a player’s performance, and the history of what he has done in prior seasons.
There seems debate among fans at bulletin boards about whether the Cards should draft from high school or colleges. The reality is the Cards recruit players from both sources, not just one or the other. They integrate information about players from diverse amateur experiences to come up with their chosen mix.
There can be economic advantages for teams to sign college juniors and seniors. Minor league players do not earn free agency for about 7 years. By that time, they will be in their late 20s. If they make the majors, that starts a new 6 year clock toward ML free agency. If a 22 year old takes 5 years to reach the majors at 27, then has a relatively long ML career of 5 years, he is 32 and still under salary control. Thus drafting older players can yield salary containment benefits. College seniors also have little negotiating leverage, so their signing bonuses are lower than for younger players.
To staff a minor league system, a franchise needs to add 60 or so amateurs per year. I do not know the average duration of minor league service, but it could be around 3 years. Most guys will not reach the majors, because there are not enough openings to accommodate everybody. Collegiate players are well suited to playing in the minors for a few years, because they have already received benefit of some higher education. An employer team can give up sooner with college players and feel they have an educational foundation on which they can rely for their post-baseball-jobs, once their minor league service is over.
High school players often imply a greater, more expensive commitment, because they of course tend to be a little less mature, personally and physically. If we divert a player from college by signing him out of high school, it is ethical to give him more playing time with which to develop his skills. This spring we cut a couple of college senior pitchers who signed last June, Hester and Pitts. They may have been helped with athletic scholarship to help fund college educations. If there is not room for them in the pros, it can make sense to release them quickly. They helped us field short-season teams last summer, and that’s that. It’s a business and we no longer need their services. A team is always winnowing down to its best prospects.
If the Cards were instead to sign 50 kids from high schools per draft, then the system would soon get clogged or many kids would not get enough playing time, one or the other. As a result, the kids would lose out educationally to turn pro early and lose out if soon released by a pro team. The way the Cards are running their business in the US, they carefully choose when to recruit a younger man from high school or a junior college, versus when to rely on third and fourth year college players. They draft many of the latter and there are both ethical and cost advantages to doing so. Also many college players become ML stars (e.g., Matt Morris, Dan Haren, Dustin Pedroia, Ryan Howard, etc., etc.)
If a team is targeting 22 year old kids out of college with the expectation of grooming them for five to seven years in the minors, they need to rethink their strategy, IMO.
A player out of college good enough to play regularly in the majors should be up there in about three years after turning pro, barring injuries. Tyler Greene was injured and Skip Schumaker took longer than that but I think they are the exceptions.
Year one: short season, low A ball
Year two: high A ball, AA
Year 3: AA, AAA, callup
It is helpful to bear in mind the wisdom of Walt Jocketty. Noticing the swings in the reputations of players from one year to the next, Walt would marvel: “But he’s still the same guy.” This wisdom can apply in ranking amateurs. Many of today’s college players were high school super-stars. They are often the same guys, just a few years older! Competitive college ball can be a lot tougher than high school, so high upside college players may not rack up great stats like they did back in high school. Mitch Boggs did not play much baseball at the Univ. of Georgia, so had a high ERA. Its the SEC, a tough league. Owing to arm strength, he has since shown to be effective in the minor leagues. Fans like to dream on high school athletes, but many ML teams will select a majority of draftees from colleges. Its not just the Cards and Athletics; the deep pocketed Red Sox have done very well with college athletes.
Perhaps surprisingly, about half of first round picks from colleges were not even drafted coming out of high school! This is illustrated, yet again this year, by Strasburg and Ackley! They illustrate how hard it is to project many high school kids just three years ahead.
Great baseball players develop via hard work. Guys who may make it look easy probably still got that way through hard effort. Baseball requires a long apprenticeship . Pro ball entails work. If a team is going to employ a young man for years in hopes he can develop into a skilled artisan, then more mature amateurs coming from colleges can be more mentally prepared to undertake the grind and effort that success in the game requires.
Solid Jumbo.
Thanks to Dizzy and WCBW. I will continue my monologue, but try to get back to Dizzy.
As I have said, the Cards selectively add high school players. This would be based on potential (tools and skills) at a given round of the draft versus other available players, and signability factors, such as whether a young man wants to go to college and perhaps lift his draft rank in future.
Who were the high school players the Cards selected in June 2009?
1 Miller RHP
10 Hernandez LHP
15 Washington 1B
18 Garcia C
31 Bighames SS
39 Terrasas SS
49 Hillis RHP
We see players from HS sprinkled from top to bottom, 7 in all. I guess the Cards think they have a respectable chance of signing the first four. They have identified three more guys they would like to persuade to turn pro, but these young men may be weighing college offers. We signed Nick Additon out of high school in about round 47, so its not implausible we will reach agreement with all seven. Its just when you draft a kid after round 30, there may be an implication you are less sure of signability (though an exception would have been Babick last June, because in an interview he sounded intent on pro ball). In general, the Cards like to select older players, but selectively add some less experienced players, high school and jucos. Its an integrated ranking process, not all one way or all the other way. At every round in the draft, the rational team wants to try to make the best choice among the full range of players available, rather than exclude some class of player. The team wants to make optimal decisions, from the information available to it.
Yeah, I’m really impressed with your knowledge in this area, Jumbo. Nice job!
Thanks kindly to Nutlaw. Just trying to put things in perspective for myself and any readers.
Who did the Cards draft out of junior colleges, one or two years after high school?
6th rd, second year, OF Hill. ( “Tremendous athleticism” said Baseball America, not surprising since the son of Olympic athlete parents. Still available in round 6, because a rough diamond, who used to run track and play football. With this kind of athleticism, the Cards may need to go over slot to sign this young man. If so, money well invested.)
12th, second year, LHP Daugherty. Must have physical potential, tall lefty. We are not going to waste a 12th rounder unless a guy has some potential.
17th rd, second year, 1B Jon Rodriquez.
21, first year, RHP Rosenthal
24, second year, RHP Butler
32, second year, RHP Lawler
43, first year, LHP De la Cruz
Thus 7 more guys, five pitchers, two position players.
Juco guys may not be easy signs, because if good enough to attract pro teams, they may get college scholarship offers as well. You want an easy sign, stick safely with college juniors and seniors. But the Cards are more being aggressive, taking signability risks.
Juco players can yield nice surprises. Jose Pujols was a first year juco player. The less outstanding Jack Wilson, Coco Crisp, and Tyler Johnson are more examples. But for scouts, anybody who survives to the majors, counts as a success, not just ML all stars.
Putting together HS and juco, there are 14 choices with less amateur background (which works out to 28 percent, when we draft a nice even number like 50).
Looking at the draft round distribution by position
21 RHPs: rds 1, 3, 4, 9, 20, 21, 24, 25, 27, 30, 32, 34, 35, 36, 40, 41, 42, 47, 48, 49, 50 (HSers 1 and 49)
8 LHPs: 10, 12, 16, 28, 29, 38, 43, 44 (HSer is the first)
4 catchers: 2, 18, 19, 46
5 shortstops: 5, 8, 31, 33, 39 (HSers 31/39)
4 center fielders: 6, 14, 26, 45
4 first basemen: 11, 15, 17, 23
1 right fielder: 7
2 3Bmen: 13, 37
1 2B: 22
Zero left fielders
It’s a draft that loaded up on pitchers, 29. We needed them.
13 players were SS, CF, and catcher, up the middle defense. Good places to invest.
4 hitters for 1B, different experience levels so they should not be crowding.
4 at 3B/2B/RF. Since we sometimes use shortstops at 2B and 3B in the minors, we do not need to add many.
Last year, our 10th rounder came from a school in North Carolina that had not had a player drafted since 1973. The Cards get around, looking for help.
This year, in the 35th round, Lincoln University, described as a historically black college, Jefferson City, MO. Round 37, Mount Olive College, North Carolina. Rd 38, Warner Southern College, FL. 41st round, McKendree University, NAIA, Lebanon, Illinois.
Where do players come from by State, by draft round?
Texas: rounds 1, 4, 13, 30, 32, 39 (six)
California: 2, 3, 6, 11, 15, 16, 19, 20, 43, 48, 50 (eleven)
Florida: 5, 8, 31, 38 (four)
Washington: 7
South Carolina: 9, 22, 40 (three)
Puerto Rico: 10, 17, 18 (three)
Mississippi: 12, 33 (two)
Georgia: 14, 28 (two)
Kansas: round 21
Pennsylvania: 23
Illinois: 24, 34, 41 (three)
Maryland: 25
North Carolina: 26, 37 (two)
Connecticut: 27
Kentucky: 29, 47 (two)
Missouri: 35, 46 (two)
Utah: 36
Arkansas: 42
Iowa: 44
Alabama: 45
Tennessee: 49
Adding up northbelt players (Kansas, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Maryland, Connecticut, Missouri, Utah, Iowa) = 11, all selected after round 20.
78 percent of selections were from the Sun Belt.
Amateurs are generally selected from among 6 year groups. Lets look at how the draft picks were allocated, according to these classes.
7 players from high schools, rounds 1, 10, 15, 18, 31, 39, 49
2 players from first year of college: rds 21, 43
5 players after a second year of college play: 6, 12, 17, 24, 32
1 player from an unusual classification, 3rd yr junior college: 14
20 players after a third year of college: 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 11, 16, 19, 20, 22, 23, 26, 28, 29, 30, 36, 44, 45, 46, 50
15 players after four years of college: 7, 13, 25, 27, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 39, 41, 42, 43, 47, 48
1 player after 4+ years of college: 4
3rd year collegiates (juniors) are generally preferred to seniors. This can be seen in the rounds distribution, above. 11 juniors were taken before the 3rd senior was selected in round 25.
A correction to a prior post: Roger Smith’s son was a 32nd rounder in 2006, not 2005, as I mistakenly had recalled.
The 4th round pitcher, Bittle, was drafted by the Yankees in the 48th round in 2007 (probably from a Texas juco) and in the 2nd round in 2008, after he had proven himself in the SEC at Ole Miss. (Amateur baseball can be looked at as a vertically integrated industry, with feeder junior colleges supplying guys to universities for their junior (3rd year collegiate) season. This must make most efficient use of limited athletic scholarship dollars at larger universities. Players will sometimes in effect sign contracts with 4 year schools after his first year of junior college ball that a lad will be admitted to the larger university after completing a second year at the junior college, so he plays his third season of college ball on the bigger stage of elite competition, enabling scouts to get a better sense of his pro potential. )
Bittle throws a sinker and a great cutter. Bittle has been a good closer at Mississippi, but better profiles as a set-up guy in pro ball, because his velocity is not extreme.
Someone could ask, should the Cards be investing the 4th round pick in a guy whose ceiling is set up reliever (setting aside occasional shoulder soreness issues)? This choice must illustrate the Cards value adding pitchers and see Bittle as near ML ready. Because he is a senior, we can also save some bonus money for other uses. Quite a few seniors tend to get drafted in the 4th round, such as for examples 2B Tyler Mach by the Phillies a couple of years ago and RHP Eddie Degerman by the Cards in 06.
Two examples of “he’s still the same guy” phenomena and how high school hot shots become college players.
In the Top 200 players in the nation back in 2005, OF Jarred Bogany out of Houston was ranked about 149, IIRC, and C Charles Cutler from near San Francisco, 179. Bogany was about a 3rd/4th round talent, who scouts compared to Andre Dawson (owing to body type). Darryl Jones also from a Houston high school was rated about the same as Bogany. The Cards selected Jones in the 3rd round. Bogany had a scholarship from Louisiana State U, so fell to the 15th round in the draft on signability grounds, and indeed chose to go to LSU where he hit above .300 as a freshman, pretty good. The head coach left, so Bogany was able to transfer to another elite baseball program, Arizona State U. ASU has so many talented recruits that if you start out with a slump, you wind up on the bench real quick. Bogany had a poor sophmore experience at ASU. He transferred to a small-time collegiate program in Texas. He must have been viewed as a failure by scouts, since he got entirely passed over in the 2008 draft, 50 rounds. The Cards signed him as an undrafted free agent. He is still the same guy who could have commanded a 3rd/4th round pick in 2005, if he had wanted to turn pro at that point. The Cards recently gave him a roster slot at Quad Cities. He started slow with allergies, but is now hitting above .300.
Cutler hit over .600 in high school. He wanted to go to school at U-Cal Berkeley, so may not have been drafted in 2005, since why should a team waste a draft pick on a guy going to college? At UCal, he played 3 years, though by his junior year he was playing OF, maybe because defense is not his forte. The Cards were able to draft him in the 14th round and switched him back to catching. He has been hitting for a high average at Quad Cities. He must need to improve on catching skills or he would have been promoted to Palm Beach already.
Both of these guys were “toolsy” high schoolers with “high ceilings.” Fans love it when teams give such kids big bonuses. One young man was forgotten in the 2008 draft, while the other was still available and good value for the 14th round. Both high school stars are now in Quad Cities and playing pretty well.
In post 7 above, Dizzy made a point about how a player (from a Division 1 college with a good baseball program) should ascend to the majors in 2.5 seasons.
Lets consider some examples. In 2006, we signed Jay, Robinson, and Craig from some elite baseball programs. Jay lost the better part of one season to injuries; Robinson a half season in 2007); and Craig has not lost much time to injury, IIRC. All three are at Memphis, its been about 3 years since they signed. They seem to deserve continued AAA seasoning through 2009. Jay and Robinson could probably play in the majors next year, if we need them, but another year at Memphis could make them better still. 2.5 years to 3.5 years looks reasonable, and then injury time could be added onto this.
So if you draft a guy at 22, and he takes 4 years to become ML ready, including some time lost to injury, he would be a ML candidate at age 26. He would then be salary controlled for 6 years, should he play so long in the majors, or age 32.
Between high school versus collegiates, one issue would be what is the average time gain by turning pro from high school versus going to college for three years? I would guess it would be about 1 year (on average). Hypothetically, if this were so, then your average ML rookie signed from high school might be 25. He would reach free agency at 31 and gain at a year of earning power as a veteran free agent.
If a 4th year of college ball is not helpful for developing baseball players, then a college senior could become a rookie candidate at age 27. Adding 6 years makes him a ML free agent at age 33. The age of veteran free agents is an important in relation to their earning power at that point, especially the number of years in a contract.
For a team, there can be advantages in selectively signing some college seniors. They are going to be relatively reliable in terms of minor league performance. And the team is going to maintain control of them during their prime playing years.
Some seniors did not sign at an earlier point because of tool/skill issues. In their cases, age is not governing in terms of their pro outcomes. Consider Allen Craig. He is a knowledgable, good hitter. Yet his pro future may be shaped most by where he fits on the field, his defensive contribution.
I jumbled some numbers in post 8. I probably meant to suggest a hypothetical average HS origin player might hit the majors at age 24, college junior at 25, and college senior at 26. Injuries can delay these arrivals.
A high school origin signee will, on average, cost more in signing bonus, and reach salary free agency two years earlier than an average college senior. These may not be decisive factors in ranking prospects for the draft, but they probably deserve to be factored too, in addition to all other factors.
Jumbo,
Don’t twist what I wrote to fit into your little world. You said I wrote: “In post 7 above, Dizzy made a point about how a player (from a Division 1 college with a good baseball program) should ascend to the majors in 2.5 seasons.”
What I wrote was: “A player out of college good enough to play regularly in the majors should be up there in about three years after turning pro, barring injuries. Tyler Greene was injured and Skip Schumaker took longer than that but I think they are the exceptions.”
There is a significant difference in meaning between those two statements. You not only advanced the time table by by 20% but you included all players that went to a good baseball school.
Now to buck conventional opinion of the moment.
Do I think Pete Kozma will become a MLer? I do not know why not. He’s ok, where he is right now, being force fed at AA. He is on an accelerated rate of training.
I know lots and lots of right swining high school short-stops drafted in the first round have not reached the majors. The wash out rate is high.
But I do not think the Cards were dopes to draft Kozma. Plenty of first round picks do not reach the majors. Success is guaranteed to no one. He has a good chance at SS, if he remains determined.
In recent years, the Cards have been investing in signing and home-growing SSes (Greene, Solano, Kozma, Bolivar, Vasquez, Valera, etc.). If we can produce one per year, extras can be useful trading chips. SS is a valuable position, so its good to have a supply of them around. If you have some, then you do not need to trade for them (Renteria) or pick up whats available in the free agent market (Eckstein, Spivey, Izturis).
Lots of fans are sure the Cards were unsmart in 2007 not to sign Porcello. Coincidentally, the fans of about 25 other teams think the same thing about their own unsmart team!
I do not know how much money the Cards had available in June 2007 to pay out in signing bonuses. Porcello got a deal around $7MM, counting all the bells and whistles on it. By himself, this would have been more than all the amateurs signed that year by the Cards in the US and Latin America, combined. So if you do not have cash budgeted to afford Porcello, then you cannot sign him and are better off having signed the 60 other players who you in fact could afford and did sign.
Dizzy: there is not a convenient quote feature on this web site, to my knowledge. This brings with it advantages and disadvantages.
So I tried to paraphrase and I dont think we are in meaningful disagreement or at least about what, I know not.
You provided an example of short-season, year two (A+ & AA), year three (AAA). This gets counted as 2.5 seasons.
In the main, it seems as if Luhnow tries to push what you suggest. Whereas Dan Haren spent his first full season amassing 180 innings in low A ball, nowadays the development pace is more aggressive. Shane Peterson is at high A for instance. Wallace and Lynn have been pushed even faster. A guy like Cutler is qualified to hit at a higher level, but may need to upgrade some defensive criteria to warrant landing at A+, where someone out of U-Cal would often be.
Biddle is struggling with shoulder issues. Classic shoulder issues. With that much meat to choose from, why the sick cow in the 4th round Jumbo?
I would agree with you, Westie, the guy has had pain for at least three seasons, off and on. On the other hand, many pitchers either need an operation now or will need one later. Maybe they looked at his medical information and considered it was worth a calculated gamble. Its probably an informed, realistic gamble.
Now would I personally have selected Biddle? I might have been more risk averse, but what would I know? And he may be only a set up reliever, so I might look elsewhere.
But I do not like focusing on one round. I like a bunch of the other picks, so I give the Cardinals Bittle, if it makes them happy.
I’m with Jumbo in being happy to see the Cards sign a proportionally high number of catchers, short stops, and center fielders. It’s nice to see a stronger defensive bunch, even if some do end up moving to less challenging positions.
I’m less excited about seeing four first basemen, but with only five outfielders selected, maybe some could move to LF?
Or you’re making a bid on a forth round pick because you know he might take less, or fails a physical and you save forth round money, because you are a wily spend thrifty team. 1st rounder that could fail, a 4th rounder that should fail. I haven’t even looked at the rest. I know thats kind of negative Jumbo, so please lets watch that together.
This team shouldn’t set Rasmus down for statistical reason. This is Tony starting a campaign to irritate BD about signing a player. With the DH, no way. I hope Rasmus stays pissed.
I moved one guy to 1B, because he seems destined to be there. Big Matt Adams is a 6’3″, 245 lb catcher. In 2007, Big Matt Arburr was a 250 lb 3B and made the shift to 1B.
I like the first basemen. The guy at 11 from Fresno State should be an advanced hitter to play at Palm Beach in 2010. The rd 15 young man out of a high school would be a few years behind him. The 17th rounder at Manatee jc could spend 2010 at Quad Cities. Matt Adams provides another bat for depth where needed. It looks like a good assortment: Division 1 junior, a small college junior, a sophmore from a juco, and a high schooler. Its tiered in terms of amateur backgrounds.
Westie, as a senior, Bittle, will receive less money, at any round selected, regardless of team. In 2006, Degerman was a 5th year senior in the 4th round and got $100,000 from the Cards, around $150,000 less than would a junior. However, other 4th round seniors have gotten less from other teams, so the Cards are not ungenerous in this situation.
If his physical reveals worse health issues than understood before, then the bonus should be lowered accordingly.
The Cards are thrifty. That’s a good term. They pay the piper when they have to do so, but try not to spend unwisely. They can take bonus savings from the 4th round to go overslot on somebody else. For instance, the HS SS in Rd 31 is going to get a deal normal for a 10th rounder.
The 16th round selection, a little southpaw, Bibona had a great season at Cal-Irvine, was a first team All American or so I saw posted by a fan. Cal-Irvine is strong collegiate competition. Its hard to understand how somebody like Bibona was still around at 16 for the Cards to vacuum up. During baseball history, there have been a lot of little soft tossing lefties who have enjoyed ML careers. We had other lads we had to reap first, but the Cards must have been amazed to find Bibona still available at 16. Irvine is where last year’s 4th rounder, Gorgen, pitched. Gorgen seems to be rounding into form at Palm Beach.
The Cards chose another short pitcher in round 9, McCully. I had been hoping we might select Baylor’s Kendall Volz at some point. The Red Sox, a very smart drafting team, vacuumed up Volz in the 9th. It will be interesting to see who has the bigger career in the years ahead, McCully or Volz. Or what Volz’s signing bonus is. Maybe he priced himself down in the draft.
22nd rounder, 2B Bergman, College of Charleston has said he is staying in school. He is a junior. We drafted a different junior 2B from the same college last June in about round 46 and he too stayed in school. Bergman had the second highest batting average among Division 1 colleges.
The Cards have selected more players from this college than any other ML team, 6 guys since 1991, according to the school’s web site. This includes LHP Reid Price in 2005 and in 2007 SS Ollie Marmol in the 6th round.
We also drafted a CoC pitcher in round 40. Since a senior, he should sign.
The Cards try to sign everybody, within financial reason. Last year they signed about 80 percent of draftees.
This year we selected 29 pitchers. While this might seem like a lot, we selected 27 last year, not many more.
22 pitchers were selected between rounds 20-50. Between rounds 5-19, 11 of 14 selections were position players. So there were pitchers very high, then a run on position players, and then a long run on pitchers again.
The Cards like to consider the multi-year “history” of an amateur in selecting him. The Web enables some history digging. So consider the 19th round pick, Travis Tartamella, a catcher. In 2005, Baseball America had him 90th in the top 300 of his high school year group. In 2006, he was ranked 51st in California among all prospects in that State, college and high school. He was drafted in the 50th round, but went to Pepperdine U (alma mater of Dan Haren, Noah Lowry, Will Ohman, etc.) Tartamella had an ok freshman year with the bat, OPS 680. Instead of improving during his second season, he dropped 200 points. For this past spring season, he transferred to Division II school , Cal State U of LA. Tartamella was an elite high school prospect, played for an elite college program, but slumped with the bat his second year. In drafting him, the Cards are rolling the dice to see if he can rebound to achieve his potential.
Found out Tartamella threw out 41 percent of runners his first year at Pepperdine and made the WCC All-freshman team. Pretty good.
This spring, he hit well in the easier collegiate league. http://www.csulaathletics.com/news/2009/6/10/BB_0610091206.aspx
I like stories of guys who work hard and then they and there familiies are truly grateful for a chance to play pro ball. There seem a lot of such stories.