Few would argue with the fact that the St. Louis Cardinals starters have been carrying the team in recent weeks (granted with some major offensive leadership from Albert Pujols). Coming into Friday’s game, the Cards’ starters are first in the National League in earned run average at 3.62.
One key reason for this is that they are not only keeping the ball down, but they are also keeping it in the ballpark. That is evidenced by their NL-leading fewest home runs allowed – 21 in 323.1 innings. (The Dodgers also have 21, but have pitched just 315 innings.)
Through Thursday, one third of the season was complete – 54 games. Over the full 162-game season, the current rate works out to 63 long balls allowed. That would be the lowest for the Cardinals rotation in at least the last five seasons and is a whopping 43% improvement over the next best staff, in 2008.
St. Louis Cardinals starting pitchers home runs allowed (season)
| Year | Number | NL rank |
| 2009 (proj.) | 63 | T1 |
| 2008 | 110 | 9 |
| 2007 | 115 | 6 |
| 2006 | 137 | 14 |
| 2005 | 112 | 8 |
Of course, for the starters as a group to be doing well, so must they be as individuals. Following are the Cardinals starters’ 2009 home run rate per nine innings compared to their career marks.
All except Adam Wainwright are having better than average (for them) success keeping the ball in play so far this season. Interestingly, Wainwright still has the best career rate of the group. All five starters are currently under one home run allowed per nine innings this season – a major element of their collective success.
| 2009 HR allowed |
2009 HR/9 IP | Career HR allowed |
Career HR/9 IP | |
| Chris Carpenter | 1 | 0.24 | 175 | 1.00 |
| Joel Pineiro | 2 | 0.28 | 153 | 1.05 |
| Todd Wellemeyer | 4 | 0.58 | 59 | 1.09 |
| Adam Wainwright | 7 | 0.88 | 39 | 0.73 |
| Kyle Lohse | 6 | 0.96 | 181 | 1.15 |
Footnote: Waino allowed his eighth long ball of the season on Friday night. Though he homered, Albert’s two-times on base streak ended.
Minimizing HRs is a key aspect of the Daddy Dunc philosophy. We are happy to sacrifice strikeouts if this allows us to reduce long-balls. Some call it pitch-to-contact. Its more: keep them in the park. We have a rotation whose members have career #s that are good in terms of HR rates allowed. Go Cards. Bless you.
Wainwright eventually succumbed to the same thing that usually haunts Lohse. Fear of giving up runs with no competitive support. He is throwing too many pitches, trying to be to fine. Tony’s use of Ankiel in center correlates to one of his blurbs in an interview yesterday. He suggested that he knew Mo was doing his best to make a move. This suggests to me that he thought playing Rick in a Waino start against the Rockies might be a low risk venture. They are trying to move Rick and Tony is doing his part, treating him like a regular. If you consider that a good probability, as I do, it suggests that Mo has a very specific window of consent on who his moves might involve. That makes it very hard to imagine a good ending here. I think the league is pitching to Ankiel knowing his weakness. Maybe no one sees a solution. A meaningful trade is probably going to cost them Joel of Welly.
The Rockies used a left hander. The Cards have a choice of Rasmus or Ankiel in CF. They play Rick, because trying to use Rasmus as little as possible against lefties, to help him break into the league. The reason Rick is being treated like a regular is, surprise, he is the regular (when not running into a wall). Since Ankiel is not hitting, his trade value is low.
Or not Jumbo…You say big Grey thing,,,,,,,,,,,,I describe an elephant in detail. I understand what your saying Jumbo. Give this some thought Jumbo. Mo could crack allot of Fabergé eggs in this environment. Unless he’s making an omelet, I would slow down a bit. I liked Jesse’s composure last night under pressure. I’m sure he wasn’t having any fun though.
Pineiro is definitely doing a great job of keeping the ball down with a 1.51 GB/FB ratio this season compared to a 0.92 ratio last year. His sinker is obviously paying off. Only 2.5% of his FB are going for HRs, however, which means luck. His career HR/FB rate is three times that.
Wellemeyer’s HR/FB rate is also less than half of his career mark. Carpenter, too. Watch for a regression.
Lohse has been on par. Wainwright a bit unlucky.
It happened to Wainwright in the last two starts Nut. He senses a need to suddenly become aggressive recognizing a lack of run support, and Bingo. Wainwrights stuff isn’t any less than Carps. Carpenter just seems to challenge hitters with his demeanor, and then has the courage to pressure them to hit what he is bringing. Thats an Ace. Both Wanio and Lohse lose that aggressiveness too early and too often.
That makes as much sense as anything, WC. The team does need more offense.
I got bored and started looking into why Ryan Franklin has been pitching so well this season. Apparently, he essentially gave up on his second pitch, the slider, and started leaning on his curveball more often. More interesting is the fact that he’s now throwing a cutter a little more than 25% of the time. This would explain his new found ability to beat lefties, as historically he has struggled against them, particularly in the area of control. (3.68 BB/9IP vs LHB and 1.74 BB/9IP vs RHB on his career) This is not to say that his walk rate against LHB is all that great this season, but his strikeout rate against them is also improved with 6 K in 9.1 IP.
With such a deep bullpen, I don’t understand why LaRussa ever lets Miller or Reyes pitch against right handers. These guys are typical fastball/slider LOOGYs.
Miller vs RHB: 4.2 IP, 0 K, 2 BB, 2 HR
Miller vs LHB: 10.1 IP, 15 K, 2 BB, 1 HR
Reyes vs RHB: 5.2 IP, 8 K, 4 BB, 2 HR
Reyes vs LHB: 9 IP, 8 K, 3 BB, 0 HR
Franklin has discovered how to get outs. Pitching one inning is the key. Those pitches have the most dramatic contrast. Cutters cause an early commitment that deteriorates as the pitch approaches. Thats almost all Rivera throws. He will eventually give it up. The trick is sticking to a successful concept. Plus the beard of course.
On the second point, neither of them seem to like mop-up. Lets face it, the team is down. The vets are tired and the kids have lost the belief that they have a hold on the bigs. Barden I feel sorry for. He got shafted.
S. Schumaker, 2B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .302 .351 .419
R. Ankiel, CF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .227 .295 .373
A. Pujols, 1B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .344 .466 .704
R. Ludwick, RF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .241 .304 .474
C. Duncan, LF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .253 .344 .428
J. LaRue, C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 .294 .375
J. Thurston, 3B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .259 .367 .422
T. Wellemeyer, P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .143 .143 .143
T. Greene, SS
Wow Tony!!! This would end any doubt about the speculation I made yesterday on Tony’s purpose.
Its a normal lineup against a right-hander, save LaRue is giving Yadier a night off.
I did forget all about the beard!
I hear that Todd is out and Hawksworth in. Should be interesting.
Stewart looked like he went down and got a pitch like the one he ripped last night. 20 HR men at 2B can help a team.
Sorry Jumbo……….. Its a provocative idea though to pick a fight with Tony by firing his hitting coach. My nose is in the wind.
Sorry is the operative word for tonight. I am impressed by Stewart.
I’m less than impressed with Wellemeyer. Surprise, surprise, the opposing team stacked their lineup with five lefties and they destroyed him. Again.
It’s too bad that Hawksworth had a rough night.
Welly wasn’t doing that bad. Its tough to pitch when you know one run will likely beat you. If you look at the way they’re treating the young kids…….. they’re either stupid, careless, or could care less since they are going to be used as trade bait. One way or another, something is going to change.
Hawksworth is 8 years since high school, not a kid. Blake probably welcomes his first peek at the Show. TLR likes to get rookies into a game quick, so they get their feet wet. This makes sense. Somebody has to pitch when its our turn in the field, might as well be Hawk.
Stewart was a high school team-mate of Card’s 14th rounder in 2003, pitcher Ian Kennedy. Kennedy did not turn pro until after going to USC and becoming a first round pick of the Bombers in 2006. Stewart is rated 6’3″, 215. A 3rd baseman who the Rocks have stashed at 2B, to muscle up the lineup. This idea has merit. JR Towles once had a huge night against the Cards but little success against others. Stewart may be on his way for years to come.
I’m pretty sure that Wellemeyer is going to get destroyed by lefties no matter what the game situation happens to be. It looks like less of a mental issue and more of an issue of him not being a very good starting pitcher.
Stewart is a good player. Once he figures out how to make contact a little bit more often, he’ll be big.
For the time being, Stewart is making Utley look bad. Meanwhile, the Cards are making every pitcher look like Cy Young. Its not a great situation.
TLR is vindicated on last year’s lobbying for Matt Holliday to have a cleanup hitter. Luddy is averaging in the .240s. Duncan and Ankiel have struggled. TLR says they need another 500+ ML at bats to take it to a higher level on a consistent basis. Unfortunately, our trio are proving him right. Its not McRae standing up there at the plate.
We are also missing Glaus and 2007′s Khalil Greene. Hitting is contagious. If you get enough hitters, they lift one another up. And when there is a slump, there is the same effect, in the opposite direction.
McRae does not reach Chris/Daddy. He does not reach Rick, no one can. Rick has one way to deal with his natural sensitivities and insecurities. His swing, like his pitching, could not be adapted by coaching, or modified by his own self consciousness. McRae is now not reaching Colby, which is evident. Colby is finding some ego ground amongst the struggling rabble. Ludwick will never see anything he can hit until he punishes pitching by hitting away. Barden and Thurston are both cripples now. How long before McRae finds a way to influence T Greene with that god forsaken open stance? I know what I’m talking about Jumbo. Hals methodology is antiquated, not necessarily always wrong. At this point it confusing most players……………………..WHICH is EVIDENT.
It is a tradition in baseball for someone to recieve blame. If they are not hitting, its the batting coach. If Anthony Reyes is not a star, then it has to be that dummy, Daddy D.
We are just going to have to fight on, a game at a time, and see where we wind up, for good or ill.
I agree Jumbo. Watch the Rockies though. Superior approach. Look at the stances. Its why we can’t trade any of our guys. The league is aware of St Louis’s problems.
I am not sure it is correct to suggest we cannot trade any of our guys. This seems a very broad statement and unlikely to be accurate. We found a new home for Rolen. We traded aging Edmonds. Edgar Renteria, Reggie Sanders and Mark Grudzielanek are among recent year hitters who found new jobs in another town. So let us not just blast our guys.
Chris Duncan had no trade value last winter, because he is the first with a certain kind of neck operation. I am glad he is back to feeling better. Ankiel had a sports hernia or something, so he might not have been all that tradeable this past winter. Ludwick has long had some holes in his swing, the reason why he was a minor league free agent. Rasmus hit .275 at AA, .251 at AAA; no one should expect him to rise to the majors and hit north of .250 in his rookie year.
We are missing key vets in Glaus and K. Greene.
Stewart of the Rockies went 10th in the nation coming out of HS. We generally have not been able to draft that high. So the Rockies have some talent.
I predict Miller won’t last the month, because of his contract. You have a Rolens fantasy Jumbo.
If Luddy, Duncan, and Ankiel do not improve, the Cards will give more playing time to Rasmus. Vets must produce and if they do not, some of their at bats are better donated to a rookie.
Your wrong there Jumbo. Colby is the center fielder right now. We are heading towards open war between Tony and BD. Watch. I’ve said many times before, this is where BD expected to be. He will surface shortly. Tony was told to try and establish some value on Ankiel if he wanted any moves made. K Greene should be released after 15 days I would think. A possible Jonah in the dugout I think.
Just so that we’re clear, McRae has been the team’s hitting coach since the 2005 season, right?
Cardinals’ team OPS standing in the National League
2005: 5th
2006: 6th
2007: 9th
2008: 2nd
2009: 8th (as of today)
Not too shabby. What was Hal doing last season that he isn’t doing this season?
Thanks Nutlaw.
WC, we are probably on the hook for Greene’s salary this year and he is on the DL to boot. So its unlikely he will be released. The Cards will want to get him into a solid frame of mind and send him out to the minors to prepare for a return to the fray.
Probably not Jumbo. They will posture, posing as victims, then release. His agent will eventually be heard from on these matters. These problems start in childhood Jumbo, they don’t go away. They are dealt with in private. Now that they are public I see only trouble. Lets hope for the best.
Nut, he has more people under his influence. Miles, Kennedy, SStop?, Glaus are gone. Barden has deteriorated, include Thurston and Lohse with that. Mix that with my earlier statement and you have a mess. His methodology is flawed. Its not personal. I could care less. I have a feeling he will start getting heat. Colorado has a much better system, being tested by better pitching. We suck. This isn’t going away soon…….. In the bigger picture, I have to believe that BD will start chewing on something. Lets watch and see if its not McRae. Tony’s comments about draft picks is the first mention of a future here beyond 09. It was unsolicited by management I believe. The other GM’s will be a tell for you. Lets see who is trading for what and how much. It would be a big lose of face if BD does a make a move with out serious excuses. (Greene)
Jumbo, I see where Greene is going off on a rehab. I watching with some interest. He has 20 days. Care to speculate on how long he is there, and what he might have to show in order to get the call up? It would be a nice story, but I am skeptical.
Its probably contingent on how he does, in terms of hitting, fielding, and morale. The DL allowed us to take him out of the frying pan, where he was not going to get better, so as to let him regroup and try new approaches during a 20 day assignment to the minors. He needs to build confidence that he can find motivation in new positive ways. The only way to find whether the new ways will work, is test them out, in the minors. If they do not work there, they are not going to work in the majors. If they do work in AAA, then they could well work in the majors too.
Well Brian, it appears the great white has surfaced. His 25 min closed door meeting with Tony (Mo?) apparently was uneventful. Just catching up! I’m so right on with this, I sincerely hope hope I’m wrong. I like players and don’t care to much for hero’s. Let see if Carp gets dragged into the doggy do tonight. That will really agitate the faithful.
Unlike most folks, I don’t see any trades that will effect this situation. After watching Oakland and Minnesota play last night, we don’t hit well. If our players are so without technique and approach to fall this low, that bespeaks of larger issues than a player. Kennedy is really enjoying the A’s.
Colby bats 4th. Whats wrong with this picture. This “Albert can’t be troubled to move”, is ridicules. The fact that Albert isn’t speaking up doesn’t sit well to me.
Carp looks stressed. He will give up the long ball today. We need 4 to win.
If Ankiel goes behind, he runs into the 2 bagger and gets an interference. Instead he interferes. ???
89 pitches through 6. Carps mechanics are ruff. If he were used beyond the 7th. Oh good, he through. Never mind.
In closing……….. Greene does his job….Stava does the job…………Ryan takes a monstrous upper cut on first pitch…follows it with a tremendous uppercut swing on the second pitch…………. Never mind Motte’s finesse slider. Those are serious break downs.