Recent articles in the mainstream press indicate that St. Louis Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak is on the “hot seat” over the perceived need of the club to acquire a veteran third baseman via trade.
I find myself wondering exactly who is viewed to be the one putting Mo on that hot seat. Is it the dugout, the press, the fans, himself?
Just a few months ago, the upper levels of the organization were awash with third base prospects, with no place to play Brett Wallace (pictured) at Memphis with David Freese and Allen Craig ahead of him.
Now, everything has changed. The rest of the world has finally figured out that Troy Glaus isn’t going to be much of any good this season and the April shine has worn off the rookie replacements, Joe Thurston and Brian Barden.
Freese required surgery this month, Craig isn’t viewed as a major league third baseman and Joe Mather, thought to be good enough to play at the hot corner at the major league level this spring, is out with a recurring wrist problem.
Wallace has just 11 games and 47 at-bats with Memphis to date. Mozeliak and manager Tony La Russa both agree that Wallace isn’t ready. To help put that into perspective, I ran major league equivalencies (MLEs) for Wallace’s limited Triple-A sample and compare them to the incumbents’ season results.
| Hitter | 2009 | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Wallace | Mem MLE | 0.265 | 0.276 | 0.350 | 0.626 |
| Thurston | StL | 0.236 | 0.349 | 0.382 | 0.731 |
| Barden | StL | 0.256 | 0.311 | 0.439 | 0.750 |
Wallace doesn’t stack up well here. One reason is that he has taken just one walk with Memphis after showing a good eye in the past.
Now, let’s compare Wallace at Memphis to Thurston and Barden this month only. The picture changes. Still, Wallace’s .626 MLE OPS is nothing to get excited over.
| Hitter | May | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Wallace | Mem MLE | 0.265 | 0.276 | 0.350 | 0.626 |
| Thurston | StL | 0.196 | 0.328 | 0.357 | 0.685 |
| Barden | StL | 0.140 | 0.196 | 0.256 | 0.452 |
One challenge the Cardinals face is that it is early in the trade season. We are barely one quarter of the way into the regular season, a full two months ahead of the July 31 deadline, a date that many clubs still find too early. The advent of the wild card keeps more teams in the hunt longer.
Following are the year-to-date lines for the three names that have been mentioned as possibilities for the Cardinals in various reports. They are Garrett Atkins of Colorado, Mark DeRosa of Cleveland and Melvin Mora of Baltimore.
| Hitter | 2009 | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | 09 vs career | Career OPS | Age |
| Atkins | Col | 0.192 | 0.272 | 0.291 | 0.563 | lower | 0.819 | 29 |
| DeRosa | Cle | 0.267 | 0.332 | 0.450 | 0.782 | higher | 0.770 | 34 |
| Mora | Bal | 0.259 | 0.322 | 0.343 | 0.665 | lower | 0.796 | 37 |
| K Greene | StL | 0.202 | 0.289 | 0.298 | 0.587 |
Clearly in the case of two of the three, Atkins and Mora, the reason they may be available now is that they are having subpar seasons. In acquiring them, one would have to believe a rapid rebound is likely.
Just for grins, I included the line from the Cardinals’ most recent reclamation project, Khalil Greene. Notice how closely his stats this season mirror Atkins’.
Keeping money aside, each has significant warts. Mora is 37 years old and Atkins’ career nums were impacted by the reality that he plays 81 games a year in Colorado. DeRosa is playing at an above-average level for him this season, but will he maintain that pace after another move? (DeRosa was traded from the Cubs to the Indians over the winter.)
So, are any of these three going to be better than what the Cardinals already have?
What are the possible reasons to not call up Wallace?
1) There’s a better option on the trade market.
2) Wallace is not ready offensively.
3) Wallace is not ready defensively.
4) He is out of shape – reportedly 23% body fat this spring.
5) The 40-man roster is going to be tight this winter and Wallace would not need to be added.
6) His arbitration and free agency clock will begin prematurely.
7) The major league coaching staff is against the idea.
We will take these one at a time.
1) A better option may exist on the market. Can’t argue with that if it means someone other than the three names already mentioned. How long will it take for such individuals to become available, however, and what would it take to get them?
2) Wallace isn’t ready with the bat. Can’t argue with that either. More time at the plate in Memphis would be ideal. But, isn’t Wallace probably better offensively than Barden and Thurston today?
On an aside, but parallel bent to Wallace, I just read that the first-place NL West Dodgers, dealing with outfield injuries and one very high profile suspension, just called up Jamie Hoffman. He was a Double-A All-Star last season, was raking back in Double-A this season (.952 OPS), but only has 35 Triple- A at-bats.
3) Wallace isn’t ready with the glove. If range is truly the issue and I am not doubting that, how much can it improve by more reps in the minors? Once he is positioned properly, his range is what it is, right? One argument is that his range will only erode as he ages, so…
4) Wallace is out of shape. Let’s face it; his body type is not that of a weight-lifter. Yet, there are others in the majors today who are much worse. Chances are that physically, Wallace is what he is. I suggest basing any decision on results, not physique.
5) 40-man roster issues. This is not an immediate problem, but will become one this winter as the Cardinals have to make decisions on a number of players or risk losing them in the Rule 5 Draft.
Having been drafted last June, Wallace would not need to be protected this winter unless he is called up during this season.
For me, the real question is whether or not it is believed that Wallace can contribute at the major league level in 2009. If so, then the future roster issue has to be secondary to improvement in St. Louis now.
6) Arbitration and free agent clocks would begin prematurely. Not a major issue. It is late enough into this season that the Cardinals would not be forced into early arbitration in just under three years. Same with free agency at six.
If he isn’t good enough to stick, he won’t accrue MLB service time back in Memphis. Even those most pessimistic about Wallace think he will make his major league debut in 2010, anyway.
7) Political issues. This is a very thorny one, as based on remarks by Post-Dispatch beat writer Joe Strauss, La Russa is very much against a Wallace promotion. Despite the glaring need at the position, Wallace barely received a sniff in major league camp before being cut.
While Mozeliak is in public agreement at least that Wallace isn’t ready, would his opinion change if the third baseman puts in a good month with Memphis and a fair trade cannot yet be found?
Is there any scenario under which La Russa embrace a Wallace promotion this season? The signals say “no”.
In summary
I am not sure why there is such a negative vibe about Wallace, but it seems other organizations are not reluctant to promote players who excelled at Double-A.
If nothing else is cooking, why not give Wallace a try soon? If he stumbles, it will be a lot closer to the trade deadline when more teams may be in the mood to deal.
Remember that other rumors have the Cardinals looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder, too. What are the odds Mozeliak could land both an impact outfielder and a third baseman and do it within the club’s current financial constraints? What is a higher priority for the club? What may be easier to find?
Considering all, it is more realistic to assume the Cardinals will move to bring in an Atkins-like player in hopes he can pick up the slack at third. If another Khalil Greene-like failure occurs, there could still be time for Wallace later this summer – if the Cardinals can remain in contention that long with their sputtering offense.
Interesting post Brian. Of the names you mention DeRosa appeals to me the most , altho I don’t know much about his defense. I had no idea that Mora was so ancient!
Adrian Beltre would be great for his stellar defense and Seattle might love to get rid of some of his salary and take lesser players in return. He can hit a little (25 hr and 77 rbi last season) and he is only 30, broke in at 19 with the Dodgers in 1998. He would look good in the Cardinal uni !
I like Wallace a lot but don’t think he should be brought up to the big club this season unless he really takes off with the bat the next couple months, plus his fielding would be a minus and the Redbirds don’t need that. However i do hope he has a solid 2009 in Memphis and can be playing with the big boys in 2010.
One idea is to bring Wallace up during interleague play in AL cities.
Atkins would be the best bet. He has had a horrible May but with his past history, surely he will turn things around. He plays at Coors Field but from 2005-2008 he is 10th in the NL in road RBI and he has also hit 45 road home runs during that stretch. And he just 1 of 6 MLB players with 550+ hits, 75+ home runs and 300+ RBI between 2006-2008, joining Miguel Cabrera, Vladimir Guerrero, David Wright, Chase Utley, and Matt Holliday. And he is just 1 of 6 MLB players with 170+ hits and 90+ RBI in each of the past three seasons, joining Miguel Cabrera, Pujols, Magglio Ordonez, Chase Utley, and Davif Wright.
You know Brian, there is a variable that I think is very important. We need a man. Someone that will stimulate Albert. I’ve been watch his funk of late and I’m not encouraged. He is pressing as much as I’ve ever seen him press, and I don’t think the reasons are all that obvious. Mora, wouldn’t hurt for a spell. I like DeRosa but I’m really unsure of the chemistry issues. I’ve been watching Ibanez quite a bit lately. A mature leader and team player. I must say in closing, I don’t think the money is there anyway. Mo is covering.
I suspect Mora told an age whopper when he first signed and may in actuality be older than Julio Franco.
Atkins, ugh.
DeRosa would be useful. The Indians need pitchers and now. We could offer Hawksworth and Thompson, for instance, maybe add Ring for a sweetener.
Beltre’s numbers are park suppressed, so he would be useful. I dont know what it would take to land him, however.
The idea Wallace cannot be promoted seems a “position” to tell the press and the loyal fans and Wallace, so nobody will be lobbying for Wallace to be promoted. Positions can of course be adjusted at a later date.
For now, for public consumption, Mo is hunting for a 3Bman in trade. If he lands someone better than Atkins, fine. It would be nice to leave Wallace to train at AAA.
However if no trade is forthcoming, we may see bouncy baby Brett this summer. The best clue is the Cards saying we will not and feeling obliged to deny the obvious. These are the same guys who assured us Glaus and Mulder would be fine, so we are not obliged to lap up today’s position.
It seems possible Freese might become playable by August. If so, he could get a call-up. He looked bad in April, but the guy was playing with an injury that needed an operation. I have more hope for Freese than Mather, because some hamate injuries seem to take a year to recover stength.
Welcome cards09! I agree that Atkins has the best pedigree of these third basemen, but what happened this season to turn him into Khalil Greene? That is a mighty fall from grace indeed. What are the chances his ailment will disappear with a new uniform?
chief, I didn’t get into money here which is why I didn’t mention Beltre. He makes more than Glaus, $12M and has a limited no trade clause that would probably also have to be bought out. Mora makes $9M and has a full NTC. Atkins’ contact is for slightly over $7M plus incentives and he can be controlled in 2010 prior to free agency. DeRosa makes about $5.5M.
Jumbo, you severely overvalue your own players. Hawksworth, Thompson and Ring wouldn’t fetch a major league starting third baseman even in fantasy baseball.
When it comes to over-valuing players, Anthony Reyes seems a prime example of the phenomeon. He wound up in Cleveland. We took a AA set up guy in return and he got over-valued in the opinons of some optimists. In any event, the Indians and Cards seem to know how to talk with one another. Not surprising, in that both are value oriented and one of our candidates for GM is their future GM.
A deal hinges on what the Indians need and when they need it. The Indians are hurting for pitching. When Carl Pavano is your #2, its got to be rugged times. The price for DeRosa is ML ready pitching. Hawksworth is like Anthony Reyes, only without the sore elbow. He’s not exciting to fans anymore, because they have short attention spans. Hawk has improved a bit this year, he has a solid K rate. He is not a budding star, but maybe he could help a team that is Lee and pray for 4 days of rain.
Ring is the scourge of the PCL. I know it is baffling and I would not have predicted it, but it is what it is, as some say, myself included. If the Indians wanted a southpaw reliever, Ring would seem useful. However, if they could use a righty instead, then they can have Josh Kinney. TLR is talking about giving Brad a start to fill-in for Lohse. Swing-men can be useful, for the Indians as well as the Birds.
So 3 useable ML-fringe pitchers to reinforce a troubled Indians staff, starring Pavano. Just because the Cards can part with Hawk, Brad, and Ring or Kinney, does not mean they would be unhelpful elsewhere. The Cards have winning teams at AA and AAA; we have extra players in our system. We can dispatch Worrell, Gregerson, and Perdomo elsewhere. We can deal from depth. So yes, there is a fan tendency to package mediocrities for one goodish guy, and my proposal resembles this. This is usually not going to work and Shapiro is no dummy. But the Indians seem can use help and we have some extra pitchers we can spare. If Shapiro can get a better deal elsewhere, he should take it. But if he and Mo chew things over, maybe they can arrive at a deal.
Sorry, Jumbo, but Hawksworth is not Reyes. He is a 26-year-old that has never sniffed the major leagues. Reyes has won in the World Series and has pitched over 300 innings in the majors. Ring is a journeyman who could have been taken off outright waivers a few weeks ago, but 29 organizations passed, including the Indians. Brad hasn’t been able to stick in the majors for a full season yet.
I repeat. No way will the Indians part with a useful major league starter like DeRosa for a box of spare parts not good enough to contribute meaningfully in St. Louis. Quantity does not equal quality.
Once upon a time, a genuine star, Rolen, was traded for Bud Smith (whose arm TLR blew out in pyhrric quest for a no-hitter); budding 2Bman Polanco; and our previous Looper in Mike Timlin. DeRosa is no Rolen. Sometimes package deals for 3rd basemen happen.
Hawk and Reyes are, in some senses, similar. Both vaunted kids, rep’d by Scottie B. Boras scored $1.475MM for Blake, as draft and follow after one season of juco. Like Reyes, Hawk suffered an injury, in his case shoulder. He has rebuilt himself, something I am happy to salute. Anthony suffered his injury at USC and it cost him enormously, eventually signing as a senior in the 15th round for a number so low I would not wish to hear of it. Anthony had an ERA of about 5 in 2006, but did enjoy success in Game 1 of the WS perhaps because the Tigers had had too much time off since they did not take 7 games to qualify and were rusty with the sticks. The next year, Reyes turned in a historically bad performance by a Cards starting pitcher. Reyes and Hawk are similar sized and have made use of a changeup. Hawk lost a couple of years because of the shoulder rehab. He has come back better than many who have had shoulder surgery. If I had to give the ball to a choice of either Blake or Anthony right now, it would go to Hawksworth. Ryan Franklin was once perceived as a AAAA guy, made his ML debut about age 28. Maybe Hawksworth will follow in his path, or that of 29 year old Dick Hughes in ’67. Only time will tell.
Loogies like Ring when he gets on his game, as he is now, can be helpful, but I suspect the Indians may have enough loogies already in stock.
If so, Josh Kinney is ML calibre, pitched well in the playoffs in 06. He’s back, just blocked. Mo has a responsibility to trade Kinney to where he can be used, if we can get somebody useful in return.
I am no big fan of Thompson, but have grudging respect for him, as a feisty guy who fills in where needed.
I would hold onto Mortensen, Walters, Ottavino, Todd. Boggs may be needed again this season, so hard to part with him. Maybe we could yield Salas, but maybe the Indians need a starting pitcher, why I proposed Hawksworth. I dont think they need MacLane, since they have lefty starting candidates (Huff, Sowers, and another guy).
Shapiro and Mo could come up with something else. But if Shapiro wants guys who can compete at a ML level right now, then Hawksworth, Thompson, Ring, and Kinney seem plausible possibilities. Any team so desparate as to have given chances to Pavano and Anthony Reyes may be willing to undertake more experiments.
Mo is negotiating from a position that is not weak. He has Barden and Thurston, happy to play despite their geriatric burdens. T Greene could be brought back, Wallace is a possibility, Freese could get well. Not every team in the marketplace is willing to take on more salary, as the Cards may be. The Indians need more pitchers. We shall see what unfolds, in due course. I make no predictions, but would not be surprised if something could be worked out.
Jumbo might be onto something here, Thompson and Kinney could appeal to Cleveland but there would need to be at least another pitcher that is a youngish starter, maybe Boggs since he has shown he can pitch in the majors.
Brian, I am ignorant as to how the money works when a contract signed player is traded. Do the teams negotiate as to how much each team pays for the remainder of the season ?
Beltre might enjoy leaving “going nowhere Seattle” and playing for a contending team in the senior circuit. Seattle might take a bunch of low minor leaguers and one higher level prospect.
Wallace needs to show that he can’t be stopped with AAA pitching before making the step up to MLB .
Off topic–why do the Cardinals need 8 relievers ? Especially with how well the starters have been going lately. I understand they need someone that can start and relieve but in my opinion the bench is thin even with 7 relievers on the 25 man roster.
I just don’t think Wallace is ready. He struggled some defensively at AA and didn’t hit .300 there but showed some power. After a blazing start at Memphis he is now hitting below .300 there. Still striking out too much and having trouble with breaking stuff. Tony knows that he is not that close to being ready. Otherwise he would have given him a lot more exposure in spring training. Now if Wallace started having quality at bats and started hitting for average and power then I think he would be called up and we would cover him in late innings with stronger defensive players.
Thurston appears to be coming on but is more of a doubles hitter than a long ball threat. I don’t know if Mather or Freese will be healthy anytime this year. Barden has some power but not hitting often enough so the Cardinals either have to make a trade, get some luck as far as Glaus, Freese or Mather is concerned or settle for good field, no hit at the hot corner. Even Tyler Greene would fit that picture.
I’m not excited about any of the trade options being mentioned. I guess I would opt for Adkins over any of the others. DeRosa is just a more experienced version of what we have been playing at 3b. While he would be an improvement over what we have he would probably come at a high price as I sense that his value is somewhat inflated. And he is 34 years old which is old for a non-star. Most of them peak at about 27. DeRosa has been an exception to the rule as he was 31 before he had double figure home runs even playing in homer friendly ball parks. I suspect that Beltre is a clubhouse problem. Tony doesn’t tolerate those types.
Jumbo might be on to something if the Cardinals were the only team in baseball with any interest in DeRosa. The fact is, he is a valuable commodity that will likely fetch more than a fair price from a team that finds itself in a position of need and in a pennant race.
chief, you are correct regarding traded player contracts. The two sides decide if the sending team pays some, none or all of the remaining dollars. Generally, the more demand there is for a player, the less the previous team has to cover.
I also agree with you about eight relievers especially when K Greene, Ankiel and LaRue are three of the four bench position players. Ankiel apparently came back too soon, sitting out three days in a row after playing just one, the backup catcher will only be used in dire circumstances and we all understand Greene’s current limitations.
Though I didn’t see anyone comment on it, did you notice that Skip started in centerfield yesterday? La Russa said he didn’t want to mess with him by starting him out there, yet there he was. If TLR didn’t want to start Rasmus against the lefty Parra, he had no choice.
I don’t think the Cards would want to part with Ring anyway – right now, he represents LH insurance on the farm in the event that Miller or Reyes gets hurt.
It would probably take less, in terms of players given up, to get Beltre from Seattle than it would to get Derosa from Cleveland. This despite the fact that Beltre is a better power hitter for his career, and despite the fact that Beltre is four years younger (officially – in actuality, he’s five years younger).
Jmo, don’t forget the $9M or so Beltre still has coming this season plus a potential additional amount to buy out his no trade protection. DeRosa makes less than half that.
I still wish that they had signed Wigginton on the cheap this past off-season, despite his current struggles. I’m wary of Mora.
I’m also confused as to why the team would want to add yet another outfielder to the mix! Platoon splits aside, they’ve already got Schumaker, Ankiel, Ludwick, and Duncan fighting over playing time that the horde of younger guys don’t get. Unless they could move one of them to third base, I don’t think that another outfielder is nearly as good a fit.
Atkins does make the most sense, given Colorado’s horrible record and the fact that Ian Stewart is going to keep pushing for more playing time, despite his batting average.
If he were healthy, maybe Carlos Guillen could be had. If the Mets get DeRosa, they might be willing to deal Tatis. Oakland would probably be more than happy to ditch Garciaparra at this point.
DeRosa is 34 and his contract ends this season, so as a trade target, he is only about a half-year of control. In 2003, with Atlanta, his OPS was a quite acceptable 699, age 28. Age 29, it fell to a poorish 613. He started to thrive more as a hitter, no surprise, by a move to the Rangers and then last year to bandbox Wrigley. Right now, his OPS is about 780, good, not great for a 3Bman. I do not know his probability of commanding A or B free agent status, which would come into play in valuing his worth, since compensatory draft picks have value.
Because of good offensive numbers the past 3 years, even if inflated by enjoying Texas and Wrigley as home fields, he is perceived as a good player around the league and his trade value could be inflated. He is not the kind of rebound project we often favor.
The Tribe’s GM, Shapiro, is a smart guy. His trade of Manny for prospects Lee, Sizemore, and (was it Brandon Phillips?) was a great one. Last year, he coolly decided CC was unaffordable and sold him for the highest bid, LaPorta. He thought he made a smart deal unloading Blake for a fine catching prospect, though Blake is doing well for the Dodgers in the short run. So in the best of worlds, Shapiro would like impact players and he knows how to wait until he gets a deal he likes. Meanwhile the Cards are now more oriented toward internal growth, so may not want to surrender impact prospects.
However, the Indians are feeling short of pitchers, looking at the ERAs on their staff. The asking price on DeRosa is said to be ML ready pitching, not prospects 2 years out. On this basis, the Cards can probably have a bit of a discussion with Cleveland.
We could offer a starting pitcher at AAA who could give the Tribe some relief from their misery in 2009. Hawksworth is much like Reyes as a pitcher, though without the sore elbow. He has overcome health adversity and could contribute 6 inning starts. He’s not going to win a Cy Young, but the Indians get to decide what to do. MacLane is an alternative starter choice from the left, but the Indians have a bunch of southpaws already.
If we were to also offer the reliever Salas, the Indians would get 6 years of control over Salas, plus 6 years control of Hawksworth or MacLane, for a half season of DeRosa. We could toss in Baby Face Thompson to sweeten the pot. He’s a useful, flexible guy, still a couple of years from free agency. We would potentially offer up to 14 years of control, for a half-year of DeRosa.
I am not saying this is a deal Shapiro would go for. Shapiro gets to decide whats best for the Tribe. The Yankees may want DeRosa, but can they add three pitchers to help the Indians tomorrow? I doubt it. The Bombers tend to be cash rich, players short, for trades.
A variant would be to offer Kinney and Ring, in lieu of Salas. Ring is pitching well for Memphis (dont ask me why, he just is). Kinney has cleared up his control problems and can pitch at a ML level.
So the deal would be one starter (Hawk or MacLane); Salas the reliever or the duo of Kinney and Ring; with Thompson as another useable guy added for good luck. Either 3 or 4 ML ready pitchers, Cleveland chooses which, with potential of up to about 15 years of control among them, for a half season of DeRosa (plus a compensation pick if he merits one).
I did not know Atkins had done so much with the Rockies. Was edified by Cards09′s post high up this thread. Sounds like Atkins can hit and is a rebound candidate, like we tend to like.
The Rockies recruited Randy Flores to help their staff and he is helping in the early going. In other words, guys who may have exasperated some Cards fans can sometimes still find new teams where they can fit in. We have some trading assets, some of whom may have value in another town, though may be blocked in our system.
Something that might possibly work against a deal for Atkins……The Cards talked and talked to the Rockies last summer about Fuentes and about Holliday. Neither of them got traded, to anybody. The Rocks must have been asking for a lot.
When the Rockies decided to really trade Holliday, there was an information leak about the offer the Cards may have made. That could have been annoying for Mo.
Its may be good not to write off any team. OTOH, trade talking with the Rockies can turn into a dead-end, so Mo would likely want to explore as many possibilities as possible.
Also, maybe trading for a new shortstop would be just as useful at present…
This past winter, when the Cards explored trades, they were rumored to focus on impact players (Holliday, Putz, Madsen). That sort of targeting could put Beltre on the list. A downside to Beltre is the Mariners’ new GM is good, so Beltre would be no bargain. An upside to Beltre is his contract ends this season.
The Padres have a surplus at 3B. Mo has already accomplished two deals with Kevin Towers.
Sometimes one can find value in distressed properties (Pineiro, Belliard, Wellemeyer, Weaver). But such gambles do not always work (Jorge Sosa, Maroth, Clement).