The St. Louis Cardinals are coming off a disappointing 2-4 road trip as perennial National League Central Division doormats Cincinnati and Pittsburgh wiped their cleats on St. Louis. As a result, the club is on the verge of falling out of the division’s top spot for the first time since the fifth day of the season.
Returning home to face co-NL Central leader the Milwaukee Brewers this weekend, the Cards are asking veteran right-hander Kyle Lohse to right the skid that includes seven losses in their last 11 games. Two of those defeats were taken by Lohse.
While the surging Brewers (17 for their last 22, best in baseball) just added top prospect Mat Gamel to their roster, the reeling and injured Redbirds have had to call on the likes of lesser lights Shane Robinson and Nick Stavinoha for reinforcement that has not yet been delivered.
Lohse will make his team-high eighth start on Friday in the first game of the homestand, but seems an unlikely source to provide a slump-stopping performance.
The Cardinals have fallen in each of the last three games Lohse has started and as noted above, he picked up the loss in both of the last two. His most-recent appearance was last Saturday, May 9 at Cincinnati. The club was defeated 8-3 as Lohse pitched six innings and allowed seven runs.
You won’t find encouragement when you look at Lohse’s past against the Brewers, either. He has made ten career starts against Milwaukee and holds a 3-3 record and a 5.22 ERA. In Lohse’s three starts against the Brew Crew last season, the Cardinals lost each one, though he had help as he did not receive a decision in any of them.
The 30-year-old allowed three runs over eight innings in his last start against Milwaukee on July 22 of last season, as the Brewers scored in the top of the ninth for a 4-3 win. Kyle McClellan took that loss as the Cardinals would go on to be swept four straight at home to close out their first homestand of the second half.
The month of May has not been kind to Lohse to date. After beginning the season at 3-0 with a 1.97 ERA in five April starts, he is 0-2 with an 11.32 ERA so far this month.
In fact, May has always been a problem for Lohse. In 38 career starts during this month, he is 12-17, with the .414 winning mark the worst in any such period over the career 81-82 hurler’s nine-year MLB history. His aggregate May ERA is 4.90.
The right-hander has been pitching through back and knee soreness, dealt with the flu and was recently struck on his non-pitching elbow by a batted ball. Partially as a result, both Lohse and Adam Wainwright were given an extra day of rest this time through the rotation.
The slumping Cardinals badly need a member of their struggling rotation to somehow find a way to come up with a well-pitched victory. During this 11-game period, the club’s starters have made just two quality starts (six innings or more, three runs or fewer).
Friday offers Lohse a turn to take his best shot.
Just got home and glad to find we whupped the Pirates tonight, in their own park. The kid lay some hurt on a ball and that gave us something to work with. Its nice when someone not name Pujols makes a contribution. 3 double plays were helpful. The bullpen has been good.
The Cards have been slowed by injuries to Ankiel and Ludwick, on top of ones to Glaus and Carpenter. We showed some resolve and pulled out a win in each series on the road. The Reds and Pirates have some good pitchers, so runs are going to be in short supply some nights.
Shane Robinson is hitting .250 and can be helpful as a table setter.
The Cards are going to be cheered to come home. They get to see 3 right-handers, who we match up against better, so that’s good news. Suppan is sporting a 5.5 ERA; glad we are not having to pay his $11.5MM salary, whew, we dodged a bullet there. Too bad we can’t bat against Looper, he’s not much better in the ERA department.
The Brewers hit. We will want the pitchers to keep them in the park. We will need to score some runs and can go to our deep bullpen early. We do not want to have to catch up against Hoffman in the bottom of the 9th. It should be a good, competitive series and the home team wins two.
I will be watching with interest. I’m sure he has probably been made aware of my contention that dropping down to take pressure off of your right knee, leaves you in a position to lift your slider, a no-no. I look for him to stay on top of that pitch and be more effective. He beat Philly last year 3/2 after they destroyed the boys 20/3 or something ugly. I’m sure he realizes that we aren’t going to get more than three against Gallardo. If he is pitching with the attitude of not getting hit, we’re finished. If he challenges, he has a fifty fifty chance. I trust Tony will act aggressively to produce a run or three, butting, hit and run etc. Duncan’s chasing today and Pujols for that matter, will finish us in a hurry. Hopefully Colby gets emotional and surprises us. He will be batting second. We have to make them work. Walks are fine. Brewers are due to cool down. Lets make it now.
Hurrah for some good home cooking coming up against the SudsDuds.
Hopefully Mr. Lhose can use the brain in his gut and show everyone how strong his heart is. But if
his body is barking too loud with various ailments , who knows if the men behind him can catch everything sent their way.
The Cards have been making some low profile micro personnel moves that may serve us well, in the aggregate.
This off season, the Cards signed lefty Royce Ring off the free agent junk pile. He did not impress in spring training. But instead of releasing him, the Cards were patient, put him on the Memphis DL, and he has improved. If Miller or Reyes go down to injury, then Ring is a backup possibility.
Another Braves reject was Boyer. Duncan has got him straightened out and useable.
They picked up a AAA veteran southpaw Maclane. Unexciting. Except they have him straightened out too at Memphis. He could get the call, if we need another starting pitcher.
I am not sure the Cards will want to rely on Wellemeyer the entire summer, if he cannot improve. Wellemeyer got released by the Royals, it could happen again, if he cannot get his ERA under 5 by mid-June. Boggs, Thompson, Maclane, Hawksworth provide more alternatives than may have existed in-house, in some recent years. Welly would still get his pay check for the year, so it would not be a tragedy for him to be given his freedom, just as it was not for Adam Kennedy.
Now they have picked up a Venezuelan first baseman Brito for Memphis. Seems like a reasonable gamble. Brito is a high on base percentage, underpowered first baseman. He could be another John Gall or right swinging Youklis.
Another pitcher getting back on track at Memphis is Josh Kinney. This could prove helpful, because if the Cards had to call up Jess Todd or Mortensen this summer, they would need to be protected on the 40 man roster come November, when roster spaces are tight. But if Kinney gets his game back, then he can provide depth at reliever, letting Todd and Mortensen get more AAA time.
Thanks for the info Jumbo.
Just to clarify, Wellemeyer has not given up a lot of homeruns. He could very well improve.
The issue is that his ERA has gone up 50 percent from his fine season last year and is nearing Anthony Reyes territory in 2007. That is not good enough for a veteran, so something will have to change.
Pineiro was blah last year, but has found a way to improve his game. Wellemeyer is going to need to do this too, which we know he can, since he pitched well last year. One of the best ways to try improve this team is in its rotation. Right now ,the weakest link is Wellemeyer, so it is his roster spot where the Cards could look for improvement. If Welly does not improve, he probably would fall to a Class C free agent status after this season, which would not earn a draft pick if he leaves, so not much to be lost by letting him go in-season.
The game is about results and ML careers can be short. Wellemeyer has a lot of financial incentive to improve, so he can earn big bucks this upcoming winter as a free agent. So he may get things turned around.
I’m not ready to pull the plug on Wellemeyer just yet. He’s had some bad luck and, face it, our defense is not what it was last year.
Welle’s BABIP last year was .267. League norm runs from about .280 to .300. Anything below that range shows a pitcher has been a little lucky and anything above it shows he’s pitched in a little tough luck. Inother words, balls are not going at fielders. Welle’s BABIP this year has ballooned to .377. As it regresses to the norm, his numbers should improve.
During his last start, Duke’s soft single brought in the first run and then Nyjer Morgan (where in the word did this guy come from?) hits the ball that Ludwick hurt himself on. If either of those plays is made and a couple of the line shots fall for the Cards that were turned into outs by the Pirates, we’re looking at a completely different ballgame. Who knows how he would’ve handled LaRoche and Moss in the fifth with a lead.
IIRC, Morgan grew up in Canada, so may have had modest baseball opportunity. He went to a northern school, Walla Walla Community College. Juco kids tend not to go at real high rounds, because they have 1) not been high enough profile to get Division 1 scholarships coming out of high school; 2) have yet to prove themselves at a top baseball college as they will after they transfer in for a junior season. So the Pirates found Morgan at a round in the 20s. He hit in the minors, but the Littlefield era may have been sufficiently confused that Morgan may not have been fast tracked, so IIRC he is in his late 20s. He seems useful as a leadoff hitter.
I am not ready to give up on Wellemeyer yet either. We gave up on Sir Sidney Ponson in June 06 because of his work ethic or lack thereof. But Wellemeyer is still the guy who seems most in need of improvement or better luck. The best outcome is he improves and we do not have to go in another direction.
Wellenmeyer is difficult to figure. He looks tired. He seems predictable. Is he burned on anti inflammatory meds masking an injury? There doesn’t seem to be any pop.
Lets hope Lohse uses all his pitches from the start tonight. If he starts pecking, falling behind, it could be a long night. If he has a big lip full of Skoal, thats actually a plus. He must stay aggressive. If they start showing patience, and getting away with it…………….look out.
Jumbo, my question about Morgan was really more of a rhetorical question about how he seems to have come out of nowhere to become a very good leadoff hitter and he’s outstanding in the field. He was drafted in the 33rd round by the Pirates. But thanks, anyway.
Thanks Dizzy. You too Westie. And thanks Brian for your fine web site and all your hard work. We seem a splendid quartet.
One of the more recent finds the Cards made like Morgan was Bake McBride. He was down about round 30, lefty swinging fleet OF. In other words, its been a while.
(Bernard Gilkey was a nifty find in the mid-80s as an UDFA, but swung the other way.)
If Aldron Chambers could match Morgan, that would be nice.
Wellemeyer has clearly been unlucky so far this season, but his K:BB ratio has slipped from 2.16 to 1.71. More walks and fewer strikeouts mean trouble.
Pineiro has been moderately successful this season because he is giving up home runs at less than one third of the rate he did last season. This has not entirely been luck, as his ground ball to fly ball ratio has improved to 1.32 from 0.92 last season. However, his 3.2% HR/FB rate is unsustainable for a 7.6% HR/FB career pitcher.
Lohse looks like he did last year except for the walks. He allowed only four walks through his first four starts (26 IP). He has allowed nine walks in his past three starts (16.1 IP).
If Welle had four more K’s and one less walk, he’d be right on last year’s numbers, as far as rates go. That’s pretty negligible right now, don’t you think?
I think advantage Cards on that one. We will be full strength next time. Colby shows a little emotion. Lohse was lathered up and had the fat lip to boot. His use of off speed early was a good sign. Go get em Wainwright.
Just read where they’re making it up Monday…………… How is that smart? We don’t have a say?
No, I don’t think that losing a strikeout per nine innings is negligible. Wellemeyer isn’t a groundball pitcher, and he’s giving up more fly balls than normal this season. His HR/FB rate is also depressed. Yeah, the defense needs to step up behind him, but without inducing more ground balls or getting more strikeouts, I’m not sure why he’d be expected to succeed.
In fact, it looks like Wellemeyer has lost 1.5 MPH off of his fastball this season. He’s backed off of using his fastball as often and has started relying on his changeup a heck of a lot more. That may have something to do with the fact that he has faced an overly large number of left-handed batters this season (23 IP vs LHB and 17.1 IP vs RHB). Against LHB, he has given up 3 HR, 10 BB, and 11K. Against RHB, he has given up 1 HR, 4 BB, and 13 K. Over his career, Wellemeyer has a 1.31 K:BB ratio against LHB and a 1.86 K:BB ratio against RHB.
It would appear that the opposition has figured out that his changeup is a much weaker pitch than his slider and is stacking their lineups with lefties against him. (Compare to 79.1 IP vs LHB and 112.1 IP vs RHB in 2008)
Nutlaw, I would agree that losing a strikeout per nine innings over a season would be significant. I don’t consider four less strikeouts over seven starts as any sort of a red flag. It’s certainly something to watch but not yet a concern, IMO.
He appeared to have turned the corner in starts five and six, but they were against weak opposition in Washington and Pittsburgh, so we’ll have to see what happens.
Good observations on your part, especially about the increased number of fly balls.
You’ll note that the Brewers had Counsell (a LHB) start today against Wellemeyer. Not that Wellemeyer did well against righties either today, but he only got Counsell out once in five PA (two singles, two walks) and he gave up another walk and a HR against Fielder.