I decided to take a look at the Cardinals’ past numbers against Saturday Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster and the Cubs’ hitters success facing Cards starter Kyle Lohse. Since there is a large enough body of work for each, I am sharing them here.
Cards vs. Dempster
At first blush, it looks like the Cardinals should have another good day with the bats, but note Dempster’s considerable improvement last season. It occurred across the board as the right-hander had a career season at age 31, but especially in his three starts against the Cardinals. He spent his most of his three-plus previous seasons as Chicago’s closer.
As far as the offense is concerned, I wonder if Jason LaRue can play in the outfield? With Ryan Ludwick and Chris Duncan both hot at the plate and with good career marks against Dempster, the only serious lineup question for the outfield should be Rick Ankiel vs. Colby Rasmus in center.
| Dempster | G/Starts | IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | OBA |
| Career vs. StL | 37/11 | 93 | 6-5 | 4.65 | 1.58 | 0.288 |
| 2008 vs. StL | 3/3 | 18 2/3 | 2-0 | 2.89 | 1.29 | 0.268 |
| Start ‘em | ||||||
| Chris Duncan | 2-for-4 (.500) | 1K | ||||
| Jason LaRue | 5-for-13 (.385) | 1HR, 1BB, 2K | ||||
| Ryan Ludwick | 5-for-10 (.500) | 1HR, 1K | ||||
| Yadier Molina | 4-for-12 (.333) | 2BB | ||||
| Albert Pujols | 8-for-30 (.267) | 2HR, 3BB | ||||
| Skip Schumaker | 7-for-18 (.389) | 2K | ||||
| Sit ‘em | ||||||
| Khalil Greene | 1-for-10 (.100) | 4K | ||||
| Rick Ankiel | 1-for-4 (.250) | 1K |
Cubs vs. Lohse
Unfortunately, the Cubs hitters should be licking their chops. In aggregate, they are batting .303 vs. Lohse. Even the sitters have a decent OBP against him.
Despite improving his results overall in 2008, Lohse actually pitched worse against the Chicagoans last season than previously. The one positive is that the former Cubs prospect has pitched extremely well in his nine career innings at Wrigley.
| Lohse | G/Starts | IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | OBA |
| Career vs. ChC | 7-7 | 36 2/3 | 1-2 | 5.15 | 1.53 | 0.303 |
| 2008 vs. ChC | 3-3 | 18 1/3 | 0-1 | 6.38 | 1.58 | 0.303 |
| Career at Wrigley | 2-2 | 9 | 1-0 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 0.188 |
| Start ‘em | ||||||
| Kosuke Fukudome | 2-for-7 (.286) | 1K | ||||
| Reed Johnson | 3-for-9 (.333) | 1BB | ||||
| Derrek Lee | 6-for-15 (.400) | 1BB, 5K | ||||
| Aaron Miles | 5-for-10 (.500) | 1K | ||||
| Aramis Ramirez | 7-for-11 (.636) | 1HR | ||||
| Alfonso Soriano | 13-for-38 (.342) | 2HR, 4K | ||||
| Geovany Soto | 3-for-8 (.375) | 1BB, 1K | ||||
| Ryan Theriot | 9-for-17 (.529) | |||||
| Sit ‘em | ||||||
| Milton Bradley | 3-for-12 (.250) | 2BB, 4K | ||||
| Mike Fontenot | 1-for-6 (.167) | 1HR, 4BB |
So, you’re saying that we shouldn’t be expecting a pitchers’ duel today?
Also don’t make early dinner reservations!
Vegas likes the Cubs at home. Lohse is pitching better than Dempster. Their reasoning is solely about bull pen strength. Its is unlikely that Lohse goes beyond six if the Cubs are patient. There in lies the spread. They have been making a lot of calls from the Bench of late. Dave has to get the 6 or more so they might be aggressive. One way or another, if we don’t chase out of the strike zone with Dempster, advantage Cards.
One thing that is encouraging for Redbird fans are the early season stats for Dempster and Lhose.
Lhose Dempster
2-0 Record 1-0
1.12 ERA 4.50
8 K 11
1 BB 6
0.56 WHIP 1.50
Granted that can be taken with a large grain of salt in any Cubs/Cards barnburner.
As always Brian, great job getting all this info and analysis on your blog.
I think Vegas is looking at more than just the bullpen strength. The Cubs are the home team and the Cubs were favored to win the division prior to the season. The bullpens look pretty even to me, anyway. Both teams have a few guys doing well and a few guys scuffling. That’s baseball.
I hate the Pirates and Marlins for giving Ramirez and Lee to the Cubs for a hank of hair and bag of balls.
They would be a much different team without them.
Didn’t Lohse have bad numbers against the Diamondbacks as well.
Sooner, as luck would have it, I still had the window open with Lohse’s stats. Including last start, he has six career appearances, 39 innings against Arizona. His ERA is 3.46, WHIP 1.26 and batting average .263. Looks decent.
Great point about the trades. To make it worse, if DLee hadn’t been traded to the Cubs, then likely Hee Seop Choi later would not have been playing for the Dodgers where his collision with Scott Rolen’s shoulder changed everything for one-third of the MV3.
I’m not getting the game. I’m not surprised at Rick looking at the box.. Albert has been off his feed the hole series. Impatient. Withdrawals from his granny. Maybe a day off. Lohse appears to have been squeezed today. Baseball.
To me, it seemed the strike zone was very generous to the pitchers, especially early on.
Didn’t see it. Walking Soriano is one thing. Fockoodooommee quite another if that was the case.
The number of plate appearances against Dempster are so small that they’re completely useless in determining who to play. I hope TLR isn’t making his decisions based off of 10 at bats — they just aren’t predictive of future performance.
I think Tony does what he wants azua. He lines up the numbers like throwing the bones to read the future. If they back what he likes, he will mention it.