In his Thursday column entitled “St. Louis Cardinals Jeff Luhnow faces an early test”, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Bernie Miklasz notes the loss of Chris Carpenter requires the Cardinals to dip into their farm system for reinforcement.
It reflects the reality of the changes needed to remain competitive in baseball today as accurately acknowledged in this statement:
“Unless you’re demographically matched to have a New York, Boston, Chicago or Los Angeles payroll, smart baseball people have little choice but to prioritize the player-development system,” says the article.
The column then points out that it is now time for that Cardinals’ player development system to come through in terms of results, observing the arrival of top prospect Colby Rasmus, but properly noting the jury is still out on a number of others, including relievers Chris Perez and Jason Motte.
Makes sense to me, as every organization needs to rely on their minor leaguers to plug the inevitable gaps that present themselves during the long season, but then the tone turned personal, which I was less comfortable with.
“Rather than invest in more expensive starting pitching to reinforce the rotation’s depth, (Cardinals chairman Bill) DeWitt chose to invest in Luhnow,” the column concludes.
Vice President of Scouting and Player Development Jeff Luhnow is clearly the man in charge of the draft and the farm system and therefore is accountable. Yet, I don’t see this as being as much of a black-and-white, one-man issue as the column seems to paint it.
I can understand how the performance of first-time major league starter P.J. Walters in Chicago on Friday will reflect on the player development function, but is Luhnow really the one responsible for the Cardinals not re-signing then-free agent starter Braden Looper or comparable as a veteran sixth starter and safety net for Carpenter (putting aside whether that move would have even made sense for the organization)?
That point feels out of sync with an evaluation of the farm system – unless one doubts it is ready to produce. Though it is never said directly, it feels to me like that is the message being delivered.
The ongoing concern over the level of spending the Cardinals have made or not made for veteran players seems too often to permeate and polarize these kinds of discussions. In doing so, one can be left with the feeling it is believed there can be only one possible approach, rather than the more realistic blend of the two.
As it is, the Cardinals have committed 40 percent of their 2009 25-man player payroll to the five members of the rotation – $36.5 million of roughly $90 million. Carpenter represents the biggest slice at $14 million, followed by Kyle Lohse, re-signed for four-years, $41 million last fall and Joel Pineiro, making $7.5 million in the final year of his current contract.
Since it was acknowledged that the player development direction is the right route for the Cardinals to have followed, then why question the lack of signing of a free agent veteran, especially a sixth starting pitcher to cover what is currently expected to be a six-to-eight week outage for Carpenter?
And is that really one to pin on the farm director personally, anyway?
Apparently so. The column makes this assertion:
“DeWitt was assured by (GM John) Mozeliak and Luhnow that the Cardinals had attractive options at the minor-league level.”
That is the only time the responsibility of the club’s general manager, to whom Luhnow reports, is even hinted at.
The choice of words used to reference the farm system and its products were not positive. Three different times, variants of the same term – “hyped”, “hyperventilate” and “hype” – were used, not to mention “Luhnow’s precious Fabergé Eggs”.
This can reinforce the ongoing undercurrent of a lack of confidence, perhaps echoing from somewhere within the organization. Since the general approach is agreed with, the rub would seem to be in its implementation and maybe in those implementing it.
Isn’t the real issue whether or not the right players were drafted and groomed to contribute rather than wondering whether it might be better to have Braden Looper starting instead of P.J. Walters this weekend?
The success or failure of the Cardinals farm system will reflect the efforts of the players themselves supported by several hundred hard-working professionals, scouts, coaches, instructors and the like, all pulling together to try to identify the right prospects and mold them into legitimate major leaguers.
They are the ones who deserve whatever credit might be due, yet as always, if there is heat to be taken, it will be applied to the bosses.
So be it, but why should DeWitt, Mozeliak and Luhnow be separated in their treatment? I imagine they would be the first to say the organization’s directional commitment was made as one.
One backdrop issue is whether to have ML vets (known to reporters like Bernie) or less known players up from the minors. For instance, Joe Thurston or Brian Barden versus Aaron Miles for $2MM more. Some once called Miles a career minor leaguers when he arrive in St Louis. Thurston and Barden have spent a lot of time at AAA, so some will have thought of them as career minor leaguers too. In fact, they have been playing fantastic, now that they have been given a chance. Ryan Ludwick used to be a AAA slugger and K artist, until the Cards gave him another chance and he has been spectacular. Thus one issue with Bernie is a lot of reporters do not have a good feel for minor leaguers and are skeptical of using ones who are older than 22, because they must be riff-raff.
This past winter, the Cards let Looper walk, as they once did Suppan. Braden had a terrific attitude to take up starting pitching in his 30s. So you know LaDunc loved the guy. But is his contribution worth a veteran’s high salary? But its also not just about salary. A related issue is to have homegrown players, the Cards need to have roster room for rookies. Right now, they have about 9 rookie or second year players, more than one-third of the roster. Some may not enjoy success, but some will and will also improve in the years ahead. Fans (and reporters) are going need to become used to some changes. One is that while we may chase the occasional impact vet like Brian Fuentes or Matt Holliday, if there are promising rookie candidates, you do not want to block them all by loading up on ho-hum vets like Springer and Looper. That would contradict the aim of DeWitt’s revitalized scouting/development system.
Great analysis Brian.
I think it is also important to note that the Cardinals’ approach to building the system has been very “sure thing” oriented to a point.
They haven’t taken a lot of risks in the draft, they (now somewhat infamously) passed on guys like Porcello who was arguably a high risk investment as a high school pitcher demanding a big-money, big-league contract, in favor of “signable” guys that they projected to continue positive development.
“Signable” is often a bad word when it comes to the draft, but the state that the Cardinal farm system was in when Luhnow took over, signable sure things were not only needed, but an improvement.
Now that the system is chock full of players who can contribute at the major league level, I think we’ll see a shift in focus toward trying to get that once-in-a-lifetime guy through the draft. I don’t think they will necessarily pass on a Porcello if such an opportunity arises again, and I believe that Luhnow has as much as said that in a Q&A somewhere (maybe at Future Redbirds?).
Since they’re typically picking toward the bottom of the rounds, I’d argue the Cards have done a pretty good job building the system. Spending all of your money on veterans and nothing on the farm system gets you the 1990′s Cardinals.
Another backdrop issue is that sports reporters like or need to be provocative, try to find melo-drama in little things. Bernie pitches its all about DeWitt and Luhnow versus spending money on fielding a real team. In fact, right now the team is 8-3. The master of Hype is not Luhnow, so much as windbag Bernie, the crown prince of hyperbole.
Since Walters is pitching today, here is a useful comparison. In 2006, Walters was an 11th round pick. At the time, Luhnow said scouts do not like him (because he does not light up radar guns), but the Cards did not care. Jeff has since stopped speaking out as openly, probably sound, because if you have a good idea, dont talk about it openly for other teams to read it. In any event, the Cards went for Walters because he tossed 150+ innings for 3 seasons at S. Alabama U; he was a durable pitcher who was doing something right. A Bob Tewskbury clone.
The next draft, 2007, the 11th round pick was spent on polar opposite Adam Reifer. Reifer throws hard, Walters does not. Reifer had been held back by an injury, so fell in the draft. He is a terrific prospect, a year or two away. Both Walters and Reifer were smart 11th round gambles in the draft. This is scouting and development, Luhnow’s job, and he gets a good grade for these pitchers.
Does this mean Walters will do well today? Walters is a good bet to become an acceptable ML starter in time. Whether that time is today, it remains to be seen. Teams cannot time everything perfectly. If you are trying to homegrow talent, you have to accept some risks.
fortunately, the deadline isn’t until july 31st. lets see if pineiro can out-pitch our farmhands.
Its ironic Bernie blasts the farm system, on a night when it swept at the 4 rungs.
One of the strengths of this system is depth, including pitching depth. If any pitcher gets caught smoking something naughty (Hooker) or suffers a twinge of pain, put him on the DL and let someone at EST have a shot. Pitching depth helps spread out the workload and protect your elite prospects, so they do not get run down, something that has happenned in the past. Cramming extra pitchers into the piggy back rotations yields pitching opportunities normally equivalent to having 12 minor league teams.
Bernie attempted to create an analogy on a familiar topic. A bit of a stretch. Don’t forget the topic. This team is trying to form now. It isn’t there yet, as yesterdays handling of Chris D. shows. The Cubs, as the Yankee’s are looking at a bundle of possible expensive miscues. Albert was pressing yesterday, and it showed in every way. Pinella sees this, so expect the attack to continue today.
WC, what in the world are talking about with the attack continuing today? Pujols was given two intentional passes yesterday. That’s really some attack. As for Albert pressing, I guess you must think he should hit a home run every time he bats. He’ll be just fine.
I’m sure glad we didn’t cut Ludwick as you had wanted the team to do. He’s looking pretty good.
Your take on this issue is right on , Brian.
Big Chief is pretty excited about the upturn with the Cardinals farm, (I’m reaching for the ventilator). The way the current big league team is built reflects the strength of the farm. Along with some free agent signings like Thurston and Ludwick (was he a minor league free agent?)
WC-are you listenin to the same games I do ?
WestCoast said the cards had a move with a struggling Ludwick. He though it was a 1/5 chance. Try to deal with it. Pujols has some protection now. No hits again today. He is pressing. After his 2hr game, he’s been a little anxious to turn on something. Not so good.
All that aside, I like Chris at this point. I don’t think Wrigley is a good field for him. Too many bricks. He could have called Greene off that ball yesterday. The risk was collision, and thats a no-no.
Colby beats out a ball to first, but really wasn’t going all out. Hate to see that. He looks like a rookie in many ways.
How could you entertain ideas of using Glaus when you have a kid like Barden who is responding to team momentum and personal aspirations. That will be interesting if the time comes. Send Freeze down and bring up a bat. I wouldn’t mind seeing Albert at third on occasion to get Duncan in at first. I’m surprised to see Motte and Perez together. Thats surprising. It won’t last I would think. Tony is using his pen like he had 1 clip left. Miller 2. Bogs 1 Perez 2. Miller is a LOGY, deal with it. Tony used to use his whole pen. Carry another arm at this point if your buried. We don’t need Freeze sitting over there with two better players available. I believe the Cubs will eventually beat themselfs. Will we.
I would also love to see Albert at third. If you know someone who could magically repair his horribly damaged throwing arm, send him to St. Louis right away!
You no Dizzy, It thought it might be a good solution a the time. Ludwick obviously is feeding on my negative Karma wake. I will keep it up as long as I can.
Cardinals are stepping up all around Albert. Its time for him to stay focused on his role. Singles were good enough when he was trying to win a batting title. A show of self control here is going to bode well for everyone. I liked it when Lee, down 2 strikes and vulnerable to off speed anything, gets a fastball and makes a beautiful swing to the opposite field. He stayed on balance, giving up the idea of turning on something. He wasn’t going to get beaten by a change up. Albert isn’t doing that enough., taking whats given. If he does, his time will come surrounded by a confidant supporting cast.
Arm looks pretty good on cut-offs Nut. I say we just gild him.
“You no Dizzy, It thought it might be a good solution a the time”
What the heck does that mean?
Not to go to deep on you Dizzy. The Cardinals had established their “poverty posture” at the time. They had 3million just sitting there on a guy who was hitting 150. We had no second baseman. Some things have come together. I’m glad. There was a mild facetious intension on my part, pointing out our apparent financial woes. I would have done it I must admit. Amongst other things. This team has plenty of problems to talk about. How about Ankiel being passed over in the Marmol match up. I don’t disagree with Tony’s call, because I’m not feeling to good about Rick’s ability right now either.
Ankiel had already been used today. He doubled as a pinch-hitter in the eighth. Baseball rules preclude him from re-entering the game.
He’s had a few nice swings lately. I expect him back in the lineup soon.
By the way, your one in five chance of Ludwick being cut was probably more like one in five million. Did you seriously think a .150 batting average a third of the way through Spring Training was worth more weight than his 2008 season?
I think you’re a football fan and simply don’t understand how long a major league baseball season is. Don’t worry about guys “grinding” or whatever. Pujols will be fine and I suspect Rick Ankiel will be as well.
My tv went out in the seventh. Haven’t had time to check the box. Comcast sucks. It blinked back in the top of the 8th to show Pujol hit and was gone again.
It was 2/3 of the way through ST, that he hit got up to 150. As Tony said at the time, “he’s all screwed up”. So what!!! BD was still trying to trim the outfield at the time. I’m very involved in baseball Dizzy. You will notice as time goes on that I will spend Zero time pointing out your past “position” on anything. It wouldn’t interest me. Your tone makes it seem like your preforming for someone. Who would that be. Ankiel has Zero chance of making it past the break unless he signs a low cost extension of some sort. Unlikely. Boris knows most major league teams don’t think much of Cardinal hitting coaches. Thats a fact.
You haven’t had time to check the box but you did make time to pass judgment on TLR for not using Ankiel in the ninth. Brilliant!
As for Ankiel’s future with the team, I try to make a point of never saying anybody has zero chance of anything on a baseball field.
Two weeks ago, fans were clamoring for the Cards to get rid of C. Duncan for a bag of balls. Now, he’s a hitting machine. It wouldn’t surprise me a bit for Ankiel to rip off a two week stretch similar to what Chris has done. He has talent.
As for playing Albert at third base, Jeez. That’s all we need is for him to snap that ligament in his elbow. While there will be glitches like Thursday and the World Series game in 2006, I think Duncan will be okay in left field. We won both of those games and he certainly didn’t hurt us today in the field.
Who is Boris? Why should the Cardinals worry about what anybody thinks of their hitting coaches? They are leading the majors in hitting.
Oh, one other thing, WC. You may be very involved in baseball but I have never ever heard a longtime baseball insider other than Little League lifers refer to a manager as a coach. I’ve seen you do that on more than one occasion.
Football teams have head coaches and basketball teams have coaches. Baseball teams have managers. You’re not fooling anybody.
Got me again Dizzy. Tony still took his last remaining LH bat and used it as a defensive sub apparently, not think of the 9th. Boras. I like to think of him a Boris, as in Boris and Natasha. As your coach Dizzy it back to the pine with you. Such is life.
WC, I don’t understand your reference to a defensive sub. Ankiel batted for Boggs in the eighth and doubled with two outs. The Cardinals were leading by a run and had a chance to tack on to the lead. Schumaker was unable to get him home. That’s baseball.
The Cubs scored twice in the eighth on a home run by Soriano, who has been known to hit them once in awhile. The Cardinals will be back on the field tomorrow, competing for a win. I’ll be at Dodger Stadium rooting for the Rockies to beat the stinking Dodgers and watching the scoreboard.
An outfield of Ludwick, Ankiel and Duncan is potentially 100 or more home runs. Rasmus is potentially a 20-30 HR guy. Where would we play an impact bat we could trade for.
If Barden is for real and his power has been down due to injury we may have another 30 HR guy there. What are we going to do with Glaus? Play him at third if he is healthy and move Barden to 2b. That is an option we did not have with Mather.
We have a dangerous lineup due to our farm system (Pujols, Molina, Rasmus, Ankiel, Schumacker and Duncan), our minor league free agent signings (Ludwick and Barden) and trades (Glaus and Greene). Then there are Mather, Jay, Jones, Craig, Freese, Robinson, Greene, Wallace, Thurston, Stavinoha etc. Our pitching at Memphis has been very strong. For Bernie to even hint that the farm system is weak shows his tendency for controversy and lack of knowledge.
The biggest problem with rookies is that it takes time for them to learn how to play at the major league level. Usually two to three years. Perez started overthrowing to Miles yesterday. When he does that he loses his release point the the ball sails up and to the right. That was a bigger problem that the ball that Soriano hit. He will learn with time. A lot of it is to trust thier ability and play within themselves.
Signing a 6th starter is not too easy. No one wants to be sixth in the rotation and be the long reliever.
With Albert’s elbow situation I’m not sure I want to see him on third base. Besides Barden has more home runs than Duncan.