The St. Louis Cardinals media notes last week called attention to the fact that Colby Rasmus’ MLB debut marked the first first-round draft pick by the organization to reach the big leagues with the club since J.D. Drew (pictured) in 1998.
That is true, depending on how you classify the supplemental first round. Chris Duncan, taken 46th overall in 1999 in the supplemental first round also has been a major leaguer for the better part of four years.
That got me to thinking about how dry the top end of the Cardinals recent drafts have been. (When you have been following the team as long as I have, even 1998 seems fairly recent!)
In a series of articles called “Doctoring the Numbers” featured at Baseball Prospectus in 2006, writer Rany Jazayerli looked at 16 years of draft output across MLB. He determined that 49.3% of the top 100 players taken in the draft reached the major leagues – with any club.
Another study mentioned at Dugout Central last summer notes that 67% of first-round draft picks make the major leagues. That analysis covered 36 years worth of data, from 1965 until 2001.
With that backdrop, let’s look at how the Cardinals’ picks in the first round and in the top 100 have fared from when Drew was taken 1998 up until Rasmus’ selection in 2005.
First, I present the raw data, with future major leaguers’ names in bold. The highest level of play attained by all 21 players is noted, bookended by Drew on the front end and Rasmus on the back end. Drew and his 1998 class are included in the numbers that follow, but Rasmus and the 2005 draft are not, as the jury is still out on many of those players.
| 1998 | ||||
| Rd | Ov | Name | Pos | High |
| 1 | 5 | J.D. Drew | OF | MLB |
| 1s | 32 | Ben Diggins | P | MLB |
| 2 | 48 | Chad Hutchinson | P | MLB |
| 2 | 55 | Tim Lemon | OF | A+ |
| 3 | 78 | Gabe Johnson | IF | AAA |
| 1999 | ||||
| Rd | Ov | Name | Pos | High |
| 1 | 30 | Chance Caple | P | A+ |
| 1s | 36 | Nick Stocks | P | AAA |
| 1s | 46 | Chris Duncan | IF | MLB |
| 2s | 82 | Josh Pearce | P | MLB |
| 2000 | ||||
| Rd | Ov | Name | Pos | High |
| 1 | 13 | Shaun Boyd | IF | AAA |
| 1 | 24 | Blake Williams | P | A+ |
| 2 | 53 | Chris Narveson | P | MLB |
| 3 | 83 | Chase Voshell | IF | A+ |
| 2001 | ||||
| Rd | Ov | Name | Pos | High |
| 1 | 28 | Justin Pope | P | AAA |
| 2 | 72 | Dan Haren | P | MLB |
| 2002 | ||||
| none | ||||
| 2003 | ||||
| Rd | Ov | Name | Pos | High |
| 1 | 28 | Daric Barton | C | MLB |
| 2 | 65 | Stuart Pomeranz | P | AA |
| 3 | 95 | Dennis Dove | P | MLB |
| 2004 | ||||
| Rd | Ov | Name | Pos | High |
| 1 | 19 | Chris Lambert | P | MLB |
| 2 | 60 | Mike Ferris | 1B | AAA |
| 3 | 90 | Eric Haberer | P | AA |
| (2005) | ||||
| Rd | Ov | Name | Pos | High |
| 1 | 28 | Colby Rasmus | OF | MLB |
First round
| Rd 1 MLB | Rd 1 MLB | Rd 1 | % Make | |
| with StL | Other club | Miss MLB | MLB | |
| 1998 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1999 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2000 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2001 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2003 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2004 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| total | 1 | 2 | 4 | 43% |
| MLB avg | 67% |
As the table shows, during the seven years of 1998 through 2004, the Cardinals had seven picks in the first 30 selections, including two in 2000 and none in 2002. The Cardinals lost their first two picks in the latter year due to the free agent signings of Jason Isringhausen and Tino Martinez.
In addition to Drew, two others from this group of seven eventually made the major leagues, though neither Daric Barton (Oakland) nor Chris Lambert (Detroit) did it while still wearing a Cardinals uniform.
That 43% yield, albeit on a very small sample, is substantially lower than the 67% expected.
Though the study data referenced above does not further delineate the spot in the first round in which the picks are made, it is worth noting that Drew was the only one of the seven Cardinals picks taken in the first dozen in any given year and only three were in the top 20. In other words, four of the seven were in the back third of the first round. Still, 67 percent is 67 percent.
First round including supplemental picks
| Rd 1+ MLB | Rd 1+ MLB | Rd 1+ | % Make | |
| with StL | Other club | Miss MLB | MLB | |
| 1998 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1999 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2000 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2001 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2003 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2004 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| total | 2 | 3 | 5 | 50% |
I couldn’t locate any historical first round data that clearly delineated when supplemental picks were included. Therefore, I have no point of comparison for the 50% highlighted here, other than to note that while it isn’t all that great, it is slightly higher than the “pure” first round-only results of 43%. That seems counterintuitive, but perhaps it is an indication of the slightly larger population of players.
To go along with the three names mentioned just above plus Duncan, pitcher Ben Diggins, the number 32 pick overall in 1998, debuted with the 2002 Milwaukee Brewers.
Top 100 picks
| Top 100 MLB | Top 100 MLB | Top 100 | % Make | |
| with StL | Other club | Miss MLB | MLB | |
| 1998 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1999 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2000 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| 2001 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2003 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2004 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| total | 7 | 3 | 11 | 47.6% |
| MLB avg | 49.3% |
Expanding the aperture to the top 100 players drafted each year adds five more MLB’ers, all of whom debuted with St. Louis. Of the five, only Dan Haren has been an impact player in the bigs, though.
Ten of the Cardinals’ 21 top 100 picks made starting with Drew and ending before the Rasmus selection reached the major leagues. That success rate of 47.6% is only slightly below Jazayerli’s 49.3% cross-MLB expectation.
Quantity vs. quality
Note that this article does not delineate between a “cup of coffee” player and a long-time major league contributor. To assess the longer term value of Cardinals draftees, please reference Dave Spitze’s pair of published articles at Scout.com.
The essence of the conclusion made is that the Cardinals are one of the top two clubs in MLB in terms of total player at-bats and innings pitched as well as key stats accrued by their draftees.
The catch is that many of those players had previously been traded away by the club. That reality was a by-product of the organizational strategy then in place – to swap top prospects for established major leaguers.
Blake Williams (2000) and UDFA senior sign LHP Justin Fiske (2007) both went to Texas State, between Austin and San Antone. OTOH, big arms can come from anywhere. Todd Worrell from the Bible College of LA, Billy Wagner from Ferrum, both first rounders.
But since 2005, I doubt the Cards would go for someone like Williams again in a Round 1. My guess is they now weight more toward “history” of amateur experience, favoring a strong NCAA Division 1 program. So in 2008, we drafted Wallace (Arizona State), Lynn (Miss State), Peterson (Long Beach), Gorgen (Cal Irvine), Curtis (UCLA).
In 2004, Lambert (BC), Ferris (Miami of Ohio), and Haberer (SIU) were snow belt collegiates. Ferris did not have a multi year history of excellence, but was a one year wonder who disappointed as a pro. The Cards did not do much cross-checking back in 2004 (just like they did not scout Texas well or did not have an entry level pro rung in the GCL).
Narveson might have been over-used at the A level, leading to injuries.
Chad Hutchinson might have worked out, had he given more time to the game, but had an easy out with football.
Shaun Boyd was a head scratching choice over Chase Utley, a collegiate.
IIRC, Diggins did not sign. Today, they seem better on knowing signability.
Another difference now is we seem to give more ranking weight to multiple pitches. In the past two years, we drafed 5’10″ RHPs in Todd and Gorgen, presumably because of multiple pitch quality. In 2003, Dennis Dove was a 6’4″ RHP who threw hard, but after three years of college had yet to demonstrate an ability to throw a breaking ball for strikes. Now we prefer Gorgen or Todd over a big guy who throws hard. A tall kid who throws hard may make sense as a 16 year old signee in Latin America, yet more can be expected of a college junior.
In 2001, Joe Mather went late in the 3rd round. Presumably Joe just missed the 100 cutoff by less than Molina in 2000, two scouting successes from high school ranks.
IIRC, by June 2000, it was generally thought by scouts that Boyd would have to move off SS. He had a rough spring fielding during his last season in high school. If so, Boyd seemed overvalued to be drafted 13th in the nation. Maybe he could switch to CF or 2B, but as a right swinger, the odds still seem a little long. Pham was in a similar situation in 2006; a SS who did not look like he could remain at the position; the Cards were able to select him in the 16th round, bonus him like a 3rd rounder, and this is a better valuation of his probability of success. But if you think a kid can field SS, its ok to take him high owing to the value of the position, like Greene in 05 and Kozma in 07.
I interviewed Boyd way back in 2003 during the Arizona Fall League, posted on the pre-Scout Birdhouse: link. Last I heard, he was playing in independent ball.
1997 was the last year of a 17 year run of continuity. Fred McAlister became scouting director for the 1981 draft, retired after 1993. Marty Meier succeeded him 1994-1997. Mostly collegiates in the first round. Paul Coleman, Dimitri Young, and Brian Barber being three uncommon departures.
In the 1980s, the Cards used to salute a string of number 1 picks reaching the majors. This was less impressive than it might sound. Reaching the majors is a weak metric of ML contribution.
Mo was in training as scouting director in 1998, and had the lead in 1999 and 2000, and 2004. I figure this shared experience of amateur scouting issues gave Mo and Jeff grounds for collaboration. I am not aware Jocketty had this, being farm director in Oakland.
All first round picks are not created equal. J D Drew was pretty much a sure thing in 1998. Justin Pope may have been a reasonable pick in 2001, based on the choices available at the end of the first round, even if he did not subsequently enjoy strong success.
Mike Ferris versus Mark Hamilton, both selected near the end of the second round, 2004 versus 2006, both left swinging 1Bmen, seems useful.
Ferris came out of the Cinci area, IIRC, snow-belt. Played at Miami of Ohio. Ferris fell in draft rankings just before the draft.
Hamilton came out of the Houston area, strong amateur ball. If not committed to Tulane, he might have been drafted after high school. Hamilton played for a better program, Tulane, and had multi-year “history” as a prospect. He was rep’ed by Boras, only interested in elite amateurs. But Hamilton was not such a monster prospect that Boras could establish an over-slot signing bonus surcharge. All in all, Hamilton had a bit more in his favor than did Ferris, two years earlier. If he rebounds from health problems last summer, Hamilton could have a strong season in 09.
I guess I am trying to suggest that the Cards seem nowadays to be doing a bit more thinking about criteria for pro success than they may have done circa 1981-2004. During many of these years, many draft selections below round 5 were “organizational men” to staff the minor league system. This minimized bonus outlays.
Boras has his own scouts and does his own thinking about which amateurs are best. It can make sense to sign some of his clients (Greene, Hamilton, McCormick), because this could take advantage of Boras’ scouts, to supplement your own.
Signing Tino cost the Cards a draft pick? Ugh, that makes it hurt even more!
I was appalled by the 2000 draft. Two have two first round choices and one in the top half and go with two guys who were not highly regarded seemed like lunicy to me. Thank goodness we picked up Yadi or that would have been a greater disaster.
Lately we seem to be getting players who are better than their rankings but at the same time are picking the Wallaces and Rasmuses and Joneses. I just feel better about the last 4 drafts.
Sooner, that’s an interesting point on 2000. Pre-draft, Shaun Boyd was ranked 60th in the nation and Blake Williams #106. (In contrast, Chase Utley was ranked 25th and he was a very Cardinals like draftee, a collegiate proven hitter.)
There was a run on North Carolina, with Narveson out of Asheville and Voshell out of Wake Forest and catcher Dan Moylan, probably relying on the same scout. Those choices seem not out of the ordinary. Narveson was a HS lefty with nice stuff who then enjoyed success at A level, before injuries. Voshell was a 4th rounder out of high school and projected as a 4th rounder again; not bad to bump him up one round.
Boyd was elevated too far for what he brought to the table and Williams was really elevated too far. (In 2007, the Cards reached for Mortensen, but this has turned out well. ) Williams played Division 3. He was projected 3rd or 4th round. It makes sense to question both picks. In contrast, in 1997, Drew was a sure shot, while Diggins and Hutchinson both had tremendous arm strength, so were good upside gambles.
2003 was a funny draft. Barton was a good pick yet only if he were dedicated to staying at catcher. Pomeranz was a big kid with a stiff delivery, but probably a defensible gamble. Dove was a hard thrower without a breaking ball, but when you are drafting at the bottom of rounds, guys tend to have weaknesses that they will need to overcome, so Dove was not an unreasonable pick.
This winter, the Cards signed catcher Justin Knoedler as a minor league free agent. He grew up in Springfield, Illinois and the Cards drafted him in the 41st round out of high school in 1998 (the first year of Brian’s chosen group of drafts). Did not sign, went to Lincoln Land Community (as RHP Mark Clark did) and Miami University of Ohio (like Mike Ferris), becoming a catcher along the way. Finally reunited with the Cards this off-season, but lost out in the competition for the Memphis roster.
Another low round draftee in 1998 was a high school SS out of Utah, Kyle Boyer. 4 years later, the Cards made Boyer a 4th round pick out of college.
We will sometimes keep after one guy like Boyer. Sam Freeman was drafted in 2007 and 2008. A catcher named Reyes in 2004 and 2006. Scout Joe Rigoli’s son in 2004 and again in 2008.