The words selected for the title might be misinterpreted, especially if I had added a colon between “down” and “the”, so let’s instead choose the less-controversial meaning – a look into the numbers behind the performance of the St. Louis Cardinals relievers through the first nine games of the season.
The timing is certainly not random. As most Cards fans know, starter/ace Chris Carpenter had to leave Tuesday’s game against Arizona after three innings with a ribcage injury. That left 18 outs or six innings for the bullpen to secure, or as it turned out with the game going into the tenth inning, the revised goal became to get 21 outs.
Unfortunately, out number 21 was never made as the tenth batter facing Brad Thompson, Eric Byrnes, stroked the winning hit into the left-field corner to end a very disappointing 7-6 loss.
The most damaging blow prior was a three-run home run served up by Josh Kinney with two outs in the eighth. The right-hander walked the opposing catcher, Miguel Montero and hit Justin Upton with a full-count offering before pinch-hitter Conor Jackson slammed a long ball to left (pictured). That turned a one-run lead into a two-run deficit and became the first blown save of the year for Kinney and the third for the Cardinals against three saves.
As a group, the 2009 Cardinals bullpen was expected to be a younger, more improved relief corps compared to their inconsistent and disappointing 2008 predecessors. As the data below shows, through nine games, the anticipated improvement is not there.
In just about every measurement, the 2009 relievers have started more poorly than the 2008 group, whether you consider won-loss record, save conversion rate or ERA. In the latter case, the 2009 pen is three-quarters of a run per nine innings worse than last season. The only area of improvement shown here is strikeout-to-walk ratio.
I also listed the National League bullpen averages as a secondary point of comparison. Not surprisingly, the 2008 Cardinals pen was worse than the NL average in every one of these categories. Only a low walk rate keeps the same statement from being made about the current crew.
Though the 2009 totals are small, note that the members of the Cardinals pen have thrown more innings than the NL average this season. That is a contrast to their level from last year, a period during which some considered the relievers had become overworked.
| 2008 relievers | W | L | W % | Sv | BS | Sv % | ERA | IP | BB | K | K:BB |
| Cardinals | 22 | 31 | 0.415 | 42 | 31 | 0.575 | 4.20 | 499 | 230 | 381 | 1.66 |
| NL average | 26 | 27 | 0.493 | 38 | 23 | 0.623 | 4.09 | 514 | 219 | 432 | 1.97 |
| 2009 relievers | W | L | W % | Sv | BS | Sv % | ERA | IP | BB | K | K:BB |
| Cardinals | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 0.500 | 5.06 | 26.2 | 8 | 19 | 2.38 |
| NL average | 1 | 1 | 0.481 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | 4.45 | 24 | 12 | 20 | 1.63 |
Following are the current stats from the seven individuals that make up the 2009 Cardinals bullpen. Note at the lower right that the relievers’ ERA is over three runs per nine innings worse than the starters.
| 2009 | W/L | Sv Opps | Sv % | Inh Rnrs Score | IRS % | 1st Btr Ret | 1BR % | ERA | WHIP | OBA | OBP |
| Franklin | 0-0 | 1/1 | 100 | 1/0 | 0 | 2/2 | 100 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.111 | 0.111 |
| Kinney | 0-0 | 0/1 | 0 | 4/1 | 25 | 3/2 | 66 | 13.50 | 2.25 | 0.200 | 0.467 |
| McClellan | 0-0 | 1/1 | 100 | 3/0 | 0 | 3/3 | 100 | 2.25 | 1.00 | 0.188 | 0.235 |
| Miller | 0-0 | 0/1 | 0 | 3/2 | 66 | 3/2 | 66 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.231 | 0.231 |
| Motte | 0-1 | 0/1 | 0 | 0/0 | NA | 4/1 | 25 | 11.25 | 2.25 | 0.320 | 0.455 |
| Reyes | 0-0 | 1/1 | 100 | 2/1 | 50 | 4/3 | 75 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.083 | 0.083 |
| Thompson | 0-1 | 0/0 | NA | 0/0 | NA | 4/3 | 75 | 6.75 | 1.80 | 0.345 | 0.375 |
| Relievers | 0-2 | 3/6 | 50 | 13/4 | 31 | 23/16 | 70 | 5.06 | |||
| Starters | 1.96 | ||||||||||
| Team | 2.98 |
Won/loss: Thompson and Jason Motte have the only bullpen decisions – a pair of ugly bookends. Motte earned the defeat on opening day and Thompson took it on the chin in the most recent contest on Tuesday night.
Save opportunities: On Tuesday, Kinney joined Motte and Trever Miller in the negative category. The three conversions were by Ryan Franklin, Dennys Reyes and Kyle McClellan.
Inherited runners scoring: Miller has the poorest early record here, as two of the three runners on base when he entered the game came around to score. Reyes allowed his first inherited runner to cross the plate on Tuesday night. McClellan has been the best here so far.
First batter retired: Generally, this looks ok with one exception. Tuesday night marked the first time in his four outings this season that Motte kept his initial batter off the bases. His troubles have been of his own making. Each time, Motte has been allowed to come in with the bases empty.
ERA/WHIP: There is no in-between. Kinney, Motte and Thompson aren’t getting the job done in the early going. Way too many baserunners with too many of them crossing the plate. (As a reference point, a WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) of 1.40 or slightly under is league average.)
Opponent batting average/on-base percentage: Kinney’s lack of control is killing him, Thompson’s problem has been hits while Motte is struggling in both areas.
What to do?
I seriously wondered if Chris Perez was only the eighth-best reliever on the Cardinals this spring and am continuing to ask myself the same question.
Sent to Memphis to open the season, Perez has pitched four innings over three games. He has a win and two saves on no hits and three walks. Perez has fanned four Triple-A batters.
If the Cardinals need to call up a pitcher from Memphis to backfill Carpenter, it may be someone who can start, such as P.J. Walters, but the shaky bullpen appears that it could use a shot of life, too.
The Cards will probably bring up Perez, maybe today. Jesse Todd and Matt Sherer are more reinforcement candidates. Salas too, once he gets back to playing.
Kinney could use AAA work to sharpen his control. Motte too. We can operate a shuttle between Memphis and St Louis, using whoever is pitching best.
Thompson could settle into a starters role at AAA to replace Walters or Boggs.
It will be interesting to see what they do today. With six of the seven relievers having pitched last night and no days off through the Cubs series, they may opt for a long man initially with Sunday’s start a long time away still. Franklin is the one guy kept out last night, so he could close today if needed. Getting to him could be the biggest problem.
Of the six relievers that pitched last night, only Miller escaped unscathed. A rough team effort.
Todd, Shearer and Salas are not ready. The current options are quite limited. Boggs is freshest, having not pitched since last Thursday the 9th. Walters pitched four days ago, on Saturday. Perez last threw an inning on Monday.
“expected to be a ….improved relief corps” ??? By whom? I learned after 2006 (with the starters) that addition by subtraction was not a viable strategy for improvement.
CC, I expected the subtraction of Izzy, Flores and Villone would help. At his advancing age, I wondered if Springer could continue to defy the odds.
The positive September return of Kinney and the growth of Motte and/or Perez gave me hope. Thompson is what Thompson is. This is where the current problem rests. Nothing to do with subtraction other than perhaps having subtracted the wrong guy in the last pen cut (Perez).
Lefties are not the problem this year, as the addition of Miller and Reyes have been an improvement so far.
Upton reputation aside, bases loaded, Albert rolls a shot through the infield, Shu has to advance anyway, Upton sure isn’t playing shallow for Albert. How does Shu not score the go ahead on the road? Or, at least get thrown out by a perfect throw. Good game though. No error charged to Shu, but?
Sure, we’re all about the wins, playoffs, championships, etc. But let me ask, Aren’t there a few players that make you LOVE the game more?
With that in mind, I just want to say that Jason Motte (I know, I know, don’t hate on me) is one of those guys, for me. His energy, passion, give-me-the-ball enthusiasm makes me LOVE baseball more!
I’m just chiming in to say I’m totally pulling for him.
SBRD, welcome to the site! Your comments are always encouraged. I hope all the Cardinals players succeed.
Perez did not perform as well as Motte or Kinney during spring training. Perez also elected to forego a needed medical procedure, so lagged during spring training. It was reasonable for the Cards to send Chris to Memphis to get some work in.
McClellan and Motte were each ok for an inning last night. Usually, this is all asked of them. Reyes and Miller continue to represent upgrades over last year.
The Cards could DL Carp and bring up Perez, to provide depth. When Carp’s turn in the rotation rolls around, they can bring up Walters and have 3 candidates in Thompson, Kinney, and Motte to provide a roster slot.
I am optimistic about the near term availability of Shearer and Todd. Shearer gained useful experience at Memphis last season and was protected on the 40 man roster. He made a first appearance yesterday, did well. Todd could hold his own in the majors as a reliever, say some scouts.
Perez also performed better than Franklin, McClellan and Thompson in spring training.
But Craig performed better than Pujols and Ludwick . If you consider a long man out of the bullpen a different position than a short man, then who should Perez have replaced?
Spring training stats helps shape roster choices for open positions. Perez, Motte, and Kinney were competing over 2 spots, and Perez lost out, reasonably enough.
McClellan and Thompson were incumbents, unable to pitch themselves off the roster, though they tried hard in any event.
Now that the games count, anyone who does not perform, including Motte and Kinney who looked good in spring, invites replacement.
TLR expected to re-call Perez. The injury to Carpenter has sped up the decision.
Carp to DL, Brad to Memphis. Boggs and Perez up.
Thompson can join the rotation at Memphis, depleted by loss of Boggs. The Cards will presumably give Carp’s spot in the rotation to Mitch. Boggs got a few starts last season, so has this experience on which to build. Meanwhile Walters continues to train at Memphis, so as to be ready to answer a future call. Motte and Kinney need to improve their games or will be replaced, because the improving farm system provides depth.
I have a feeling there will be another roster move and a juggling of the rotation to slide a veteran into the closing game in Chicago, probably Wellemeyer. The rotation was set from the start of the season specifically to have Carp pitch on Sunday. It doesn’t seem like Tony and Dunc to send out either inexperienced pitcher, Boggs or Walters, in the final game of such an important series. My gut says Boggs will be needed in relief long before the final game of the Cubs series. Four more games to play before Sunday.
Kinney or Motte can be sent down, to provide room for Walters to join the rotation after the upcoming Chicago series. If the Cards have Motte, Perez, and Boggs in the pen, they can compete on radar readings.
Apparently my theory was sound. Hungo just said there will be a starter called up to pitch Friday. The only unknown is his identity. All my money is on P.J. His regular day with Memphis would have been Thursday but the rainout pushed him back – to Friday. Probably not a coincidence.
That would move Lohse to Saturday and Welle to Sunday. This allows Waino to hopefully get the Cubs series off right on Thursday with the call-up to take game two. Makes a lot of sense to me…
Why……………. what are the match ups?
It looks to be falling this way:
Thurs: Waino vs. Marshall
Fri: Walters vs. Big Z
Sat, Lohse vs. Dempster
Sun. Welle vs. Lilly
its good for Boggs to gain experience in the majors in a relief capacity, just as it was for Wainwright in 06. I like adding Walters, Boggs, and Perez to the pitching staff. Its nice to have them at the ready, just a phone call away.
Mortensen, Todd, Salas, Schearer and others can train away at Memphis, in case any are needed later.
Thanks Brian. Are we bringing up three pitchers?
Its like a die monster die movie out there today. Who is the position player going down if they’re bringing in three pitchers?
Carp was DL’d. Thompson was sent down. One more pitcher will be sent down, when Walters is brought up. Either Kinney or Motte.
It is unclear who is going down to make room for Walters. Kinney or Motte seem to be prime candidates from the pen. If Waino craters tomorrow and they have to burn Boggs, it could be him. If it would be a position player, I don’t know. Maybe Ryan? Freese has struggled with the bat, but I doubt they want to send him out again so soon. I do think it will be a reliever, though.
The Cards currently have as rookies or 2nd year players:
Rasmus
Thurston
Barden
Perez (2nd yr)
Motte
Kinney
Boggs
Freese
When Walters makes his debut, he likely will offset Kinney or Motte, so the number will remain at 8. For this point of the year, 8 seems like a good number.
My guess is that Boggs will go back to AAA when P.J is activated for Friday’s start. I think he’s just up for an emergency today or tomorrow.
Agreed, Diz. That seems the most likely scenario.
I agree with Dizzy too. It’s good to see those two power arms together in the pen. I would rather loose making someone duck because these kids are mad.
Boggs returning to Memphis seems plausible. Memphis needs 5 starters, and the Cards need Boggs to be ready to move up, if another starter in St Louis goes down.