In a Monday article acknowledging Jason Isringhausen’s first outing with his new Tampa Bay club, the AP added some sour grapes commentary from Izzy’s former bullpen mate Ryan Franklin.
The gripes weren’t about Isringhausen – they were about how Franklin’s 2008 stint as the St. Louis Cardinals closer has been remembered. Despite having lost the closer’s job for the same reason Izzy did, ineffectiveness, Franklin has his own unique perspective on what exactly happened.
Said the AP:
Franklin is a bit defensive about his statistics last year, noting at least a couple of his blown saves came in games where he had virtually no shot. He entered one with the bases loaded and gave up a tying sacrifice fly. Another occurred in the sixth inning.
“There were some joke blown saves,” Franklin said. “You kidding me?”
Who is kidding who?
Having a different recollection than Franklin, I decided to get to the bottom of this by a simple view of his 2008 performance as seen through the game logs from his blown save contests.
First of all, the cold, hard facts say that Franklin made good on just 17 of his 25 save opportunities for a conversion rate of 68%. In other words, he basically blew one of every three chances presented him.
As such, I can see why Franklin might be sensitive. After all, his record was simply not very good. Yet as bad as Isringhausen’s 2008 season was, his save mark was very close at 63%.
Now I will look at each of Franklin’s eight blown saves and call them as I see them – either “joke”, meaning the blown save was not justified, or “no joke”, meaning Franklin got what he deserved.
We’ll tabulate the score at the end.
April 1: Franklin took over to start the eighth inning on opening day, protecting a 1-0 lead. He coughed up a single and a ground rule double. A no-out error allowed the first run in. Franklin was pulled after giving up a walk to the next batter, still with no outs.
After collecting two strikeouts, Randy Flores walked in the winning run. Two unearned runs were charged to Franklin as he took the blown save and loss. Because Franklin created the mess, I have to call this no joke, despite what he may think.
April 21: Franklin came in to open the eighth in a one-run game. He allowed a run on two hits and a one-out error then gave up another hit before getting out of the inning. He took the blown save, but the Cardinals came back in the ninth to grab the win. No joke.
June 5: The Cardinals had fought back to take a 9-8 lead in the top of the tenth inning. Franklin opened the bottom of the frame by yielding a single and a walk off two-run home run to end the game. No joke.
June 26: Protecting a one-run lead, Franklin opened the ninth inning. A one-out solo home run tied the game, which Mike Parisi lost in the tenth. No joke.
July 24: Franklin took over with two out in the eighth and the bases empty. He collected the third out and remained in for the ninth to protect the Cards’ one-run lead. After a single, a two-run home run turned the tables. Franklin took the blown save and the loss, his second in a row. The previous evening’s defeat was not in a save situation. No joke.
July 26: The Cardinals turned the ball over to Franklin to open the ninth with an 8-7 lead. The first batter hit a home run. Franklin took the blown save in a game that the Cardinals eventually won in 14 innings. No joke.
August 5: Franklin took over for Isringhausen with one out in the ninth. The bases were loaded and three runs were already in to turn a 4-0 lead into a 4-3 nail-biter. Franklin yielded a sacrifice fly to tie the game and as such was charged with the blown save. The Cards eventually won in the 11th. Finally, a legitimate joke.
September 26: Franklin was given the ball with one out in the ninth to protect a two-run lead. A single, a stolen base and a two-run home run erased St. Louis’ margin. Franklin picked up a vulture win when the Cardinals broke the tie in the bottom on the ninth. No joke.
Many closers say they put the previous game out of their mind, whether good or bad. I can understand that line of thinking, but I don’t really believe it. Perhaps in this case however, Franklin has in fact selectively forgotten all the bad.
By my count, seven of Franklin’s eight blown saves in 2008 were not a joke, despite what his revisionist version of history might say.
The AP apparently bought into the excuse. As noted above, they mentioned both the bases-loaded “joke” game as well as a mystery contest in which Franklin supposedly took a blown save in the sixth inning. I could find no such game.
By throwing the single legitimate “joke” game away, Franklin’s 2008 save percentage would have rocketed all the way from 68% up to 71%. In a point of comparison, through all the times of good and bad, Izzy’s Cardinals career save mark was 85%.
Data point number two. Last season, Franklin’s overall ERA was 3.55. In his 49 lower-pressure appearances, his ERA was a nifty 2.94. In the 25 crunch time, save-situation games in 2008, it was 4.72, almost two runs worse.
Who is kidding who?
Brian, I agree that those were blown saves, although in the April 26 game, the Cards were ahead when he entered the game. You can’t be charged with a blown save when the game is tied.
I do have a problem with the naming of the category of “save opportunities”. A guy whose job is to pitch the seventh or eighth inning in order to set up the closer rarely has an opportunity for a save. He almost always has only the opportunity for a blown save.
One of my pet peeves is hearing an announcer suggest a middle reliever isn’t clutch because he has a low save opportunity percentage.
I think it would be the same as charging a starting pitcher for a loss in every game he didn’t get awarded a win.
.. and don’t get me started on holds, the absolute most stupid statistic in baseball.
We don’t want Franklin as a closer. He is good for two inning groups. …6 and 7 …. 7 and 8… just 7 is ideal. Kinney and Motte rotating 8 and 9th. Franklin doesn’t want to close, and yet its his only way to a larger payday. That why the talk. We need him to be money for Carp and Lohse who are going to be 6 inning pitcher.
Overall, in 78 innings, Franklin surrendered 10 hrs, an acceptable rate overall. Yet in the 7 “no jokes” mentioned above, he gave up half of these, 5. Franklin’s vulnerability: giving up the long-ball. He goes after hitters, sometimes he gets them, however other times they get him. Either his split finger does not drop or hitters lay off it and wait for a fatter pitch. IIRC, some HRs were to right swingers: Braun, Hall, Tatis. Motte and Kinney probably would not suffer from HR vulnerability as much.
DD, I think you meant April 21. I went back and corrected my writeup above to note that Franklin had a lead when entering the game. Thanks for pointing it out.
I see your point above save opportunities for pitchers in the earlier innings, but who is to say the reliever won’t be left in to finish the game and collect a multi-inning save? Here, in the case in question with the eight blown saves, Franklin took over in the eighth three times, ninth four times and tenth once. Only once did he even have to inherit any runners.
Jumbo, great point on the long balls. The other guys seem to get him too often for him to be an effective closer. As such, I also agree with WC that I’d like to see Franklin used earlier in the games, not later. He should also stop complaining about 2008.
Isringhausen gave up 10 HRs in his gutty 2006 season, following which he needed a hip operation. This was an aberration. In 2002, he gave up no homeruns (if one believes Baseball Cube). Save for 5 in 40-some innings in 2008, Isringhausen’s Cards tenure was beneath 1 per nine innings, often about half this rate. He was not easily solved for a HR.
Since Franklin was healthy in 2008, this season should indicate him at his best. When the game is on the line, it has to be dis-spiriting to have a closer other teams can take out of the park. While you do not like losing with walks, the greatest of all sins for a closer is an excessive HR rate. Isringhausen seemed to get a lot of outs with a low curve ball. Hitters would swing and miss or it was too low to drive. Franklin’s split finger seems his equivalent, but it sometimes gets hit hard. Franklin may not have a reliable swing and miss pitch he can call upon when he needs a strike, like Wainwright had with his curve ball that enabled him to close in 2006.
Kinney seems able to throw breaking balls on the corner away. This could make him an acceptable closer, because he will not give up a lot of walks or HRs; he could be a poor man’s Eckersley. If Motte can get a few strikes with a breaking ball and move around his fastball, then he too may be less vulnerable to yielding HRs than Franklin. HR avoidance is probably a high priority for TLR.
McClellan saved a game last April. Then he did not register saves in 6 further opportunities. He may not have enough velocity to be a power closer, like Motte. After the all star break, his ERA was 6.5, suggesting a lack of endurance, so I hope they do not have to rely on him as a starter. He can be a pretty good pitcher in a limited set up role, but likely too hittable as a closer.
If Franklin is in a closing situation in 2009, I for one would not want him thinking about bad experiences back during 2008. If Franklin can forget about bad history, this seems a healthy mental qualification for closing.
Brian, you’re right’ I meant the April 21 game. As for multi-inning saves, they are as rare as Edsels on the highway. I’m not sure where to look for multiple-inning saves, but K-Rod picked up 62 saves last year with not one of them more than a one-inning job. Izzy occasionally came in during the eighth inning if the setup guy was having trouble, but both f those guys were their team’s closer.
Solid analysis Jumbo. Perez with his low riding fast ball can be predictable at times. If Motte develops a pattern with his change-up and then starts leaving it over the plate, yikes! The challenge will be Yadi’s or Duncan’s from the bench to keep mixing. Kinney seems like a strong candidate. Is his health the only drawback?
DD, FWIW, Izzy had six outings last season greater than one inning. Only one was in a save situation though, which ironically was his last as a Cardinal. That was on August 1st.
Perez’s problem, it has been said, is he releases his slider at a different point than his fastball, signalling both. Beginning the year at Memphis might help him work on this.
Kinney does not have a big velocity, but if he paints a low breaking ball on the outside corner, that might get the job done.
Izzy had plenty of multi inning performances last year AFTER losing his role as closer. I’d put the over-under for saves by guys that started the eighth inning (or earlier) in all of MLB last year at about ten.
Guys like Gossage and Sutter used to come into the game when there was a jam, be it in the seventh, eighth or ninth inning. Closers today rarely enter the game before the ninth, and then only to get out of a jam the set up guy has created. When was the last time anybody here can remember a guy that was the annointed closer starting the eighth inning?
My point remains that set up guys really don’t have save opportunities when they are doing their normal job. Sure, now and then, they are called on to pitch the ninth if the closer has pitched too much in the previous games or he’s been stumbling but the two or three inning save is really rare.
Doesn’t the suggestion, in Bold letters, that Colby starts the season with the Team this early, sound a little like an agreement of some sort has been reach by certain familiar parties? If that were true,
and who really knows, might that not imply a few other intrigues?
Yes, WC, that seemed very odd to me, though the bold was added by a poster along the way.
For everyone wondering what the subject is, here is a link to the source post that will explain.
There are many oddities validated in this particular conjecture. If more begin to fall in place, many things may become more clear. Lilly looked unfocused tonight.
I doubt T. Greene or C. Rasmus on the opening roster, unless there are injuries. Rasmus could be on the roster, it would not necessarily hurt the team much. But room for Rasmus to be on the roster, it would imply a trade of Duncan or Ludwick or Ankiel. Which could happen, but depends on another team and is not hugely likely, contradicting what Colby’s Dad heard. I trust Tony Rasmus about Colby Rasmus over happy talk from Bernie and Joe.
Where would you imagine Luddy going in this market Jumbo? Most teams are not spending or trading with the bodies left in the FA puddle going so cheaply. Chris and Luddy were tethered the last 3 games for a reason. Both failed, even with AAA pitching being offered.
What a game. Good for the Cards.
I envision Ludwick going to right field and Duncan to left.
Can you envision forth place. Rick will fail in the 4th hole. Period. He is to easy to pitch to there. As is Duncan. It all falls on Ludwick then. He better pick it up.
I vote for Felipe Lopez as Goat of the Game tonight. He took Yadi’s throw three feet in front of the bag and then tried a swipe tag.
It will be good to have Yadi and Jose back in camp.
To clarify, Lopez took the throw in the bottom of the ninth and should have nailed Roberts (representing the tying run) for the second out.
My batting order
Shu
Greene
Rick
Albert
Ludwick
Mather
Yadi
—-
Colby
Albert has to change the tactical influence he demands.
Yeah you right DizzyDean17
Bad for Puerto Rico but good for the Cardinals!
Also , wouldn’t Brian Roberts look swell in a Redbird uni ?
Thanks for doing the research on Franklins blown saves in 2008, Brian. I’d much rather see him set up. How many innings do you guys think he could go during a typical week, could he pitch the 7th and 8th regularly if effective ? every other day, back to back once in awhile? Or maybe with these starting pitchers he could come in during the 6th inning.
I’m really enjoying how the Cardinals roster is shaping up and the next couple three weeks should be pretty darn defining.
Brian–
Nice flag on that link to Strauss’s take on the roster on 1380. I just read through the comments, and surprisingly, found myself in hearty agreement with over half of them (amazing for a PD thread, I know). It seems that many others also think McClellan should be used as the long man or sent to Memphis to keep starting. WIth his awful spring thus far, it seems like a reasonable approach. It certainly would eliminate the other looming problem: maintaining Chris Perez’s confidence if/when he is sent to Memphis to close with his job taken by Jason Motte. That would sting.
WC–
Khalil Green strikes out way to much to bat in the two hole. He’s really a 7-hole-type hitter. Maybe you find certain pitchers he hits well and move him up to six or into the double-leadoff spot, but I really don’t think he’s a “damage” hitter in TLR’s sense of the word.
Red, thats not the guy I’m seeing. I think his attitude has changed.
Brian after reading the Strauss this morning I’m left speechless. Don’t tell me this guy signs Albert.
Does speechlessness connect to typing fingers? Or do speechless fingers type even more, being the only means for communication?
Getting back to my comment about Felipe Lopez, it dawned on me that he was way in front of second base to take that throw, probably because he doesn’t like to stick his nose into the dirt. I’ll bet Oquendo or TLR talked to him about that last year and it may be a big reason he played some left field for the ’08 Redbirds and why he wasn’t pursued as a second baseman this year.
I was lukewarm about the Cards picking him up last year but he surprised with a real solid offensive push, and I was warming to him as a player. His defense still lacked, though. I’ve never had coaching at second base but I’m pretty sure they don’t teach guys to play it like a matador. One more reason Felipe goes from team to team.
DD, I also was ambivalent about Lopez, fearing the bad Felipe would re-emerge at any time.
I was ambivalent at the time but since we actually got worse instead of better at 2B after he signed, I wish we had signed him.
The Cardinals record in games in which Lopez played: 22-21, .512.
Lopez didn’t change the trajectory, but maybe he helped keep it from going downward.
His first game was August 6. For July and the first four games of August, the Cards were 15-16. If you want to add in June to July and the first bit of August, the team was 30-28 from June 1 until Lopez started playing.
In other words, they were playing .500 ball before he came and kept on playing that way.
Every ballplayer has some performance risk. But one has to keep it in perspective. A guy like K. Greene is a good gamble to rebound, because he played in a tough home stadium and his road hitting stats are great for a SS. TLR knows what goes on in their coconuts is important. Greene slumped last year and had a falling out with his losing team, so went into a downward spiral. Its something that happens. Greene is still a good bet, at his age and experience, to soar in a different situation.
Felipe Lopez went in the Top 10 in the draft coming out of HS. Hes got speed, ML hitting experience, fairly young, a switch-hitter. His hitting with the Cards was very good and a bit surprising, but probably not just a random streak. I bet he hits well for the Diamondbacks in 09, if he remembers what he got taught.