Until he blasted his first home run of the 2009 spring in Friday afternoon’s split squad game, new St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Khalil Greene had been quietly flying under the radar.
With more controversial stories all over camp, from Joel Pineiro to Chris Carpenter to Skip Schumaker and Colby Rasmus, there just wasn’t much to say about the stoic new guy. Steady, doing his job.
On Friday, Greene’s mammoth two-run shot that reportedly landed on a field beyond the left field fence helped power the Cardinals to a 6-5 victory over the home Baltimore Orioles, their ninth win of the spring in 14 games. The 29-year-old added a single in three at-bats to raise his Florida average to .367.
Even prior to Friday’s outburst, I had been looking at Greene’s spring training results going back to his first camp with San Diego in 2003. I was wondering if his springs might say anything about his regular seasons to follow.
After all, considering Greene’s terrible 2008 regular season with the Padres (.213/.260/.339), I was hoping to see a positive trend of some kind. While I did, the spring extremes I found were surprising.
In seven major league springs, including 2009, Greene has been either boom or bust, with absolutely nothing in between.
He has yet to post a March average anywhere in the range between .224 and .339, with four springs below. Three are above, including so far here in 2009.
The right-handed hitter has not registered a March OPS between .733 and .956, a huge gulf if there ever was one. If you throw out his five at-bat introduction in 2003, Greene’s spring OPS canyon expands from .678 to .956.
I find that amazing.
| Spring | TM | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | G | AB | R | H | TB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | E |
| 2009* | StL | 0.367 | 0.406 | 0.567 | 0.973 | 11 | 30 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2008 | SD | 0.191 | 0.231 | 0.447 | 0.678 | 19 | 47 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2007 | SD | 0.424 | 0.424 | 0.763 | 1.187 | 20 | 59 | 10 | 25 | 45 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2006 | SD | 0.224 | 0.239 | 0.433 | 0.672 | 23 | 67 | 11 | 15 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2005 | SD | 0.188 | 0.278 | 0.292 | 0.570 | 18 | 48 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2004 | SD | 0.339 | 0.408 | 0.548 | 0.956 | 22 | 62 | 10 | 21 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2003 | SD | 0.200 | 0.333 | 0.400 | 0.733 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
*through 3/13 Game 1
As the highlighted data above indicates, Greene’s big springs prior to this one were in 2004 and 2007.
How did he do from April until October those years? The answer is “pretty darned well”.
During his 2004 introductory season, his first as a full-timer in San Diego, Greene finished second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting. He posted what are still his regular-season career bests in three important offensive categories – batting average (.273), on-base percentage (.349) and OPS (.795).
The 2007 campaign is the one that probably generated the most attention for Greene, however. That year, he slammed his career best of 27 home runs and drove in 97 runs, also his high water mark. His 2007 slugging percentage of .468 is his highest to date.
While there remains plenty of time during spring training 2009 for Greene’s trajectory to change, based on his past results, one might draw the conclusion that he seems on the way to an offensive turnaround during the 2009 regular season.
A healthy Carpenter and a productive Greene would sure change the landscape of the NL Central.
No, no, Brian. I heard from WestCoast that Greene was going to be released any day now. Got to save our shekels for the apocalypse…
Sober up Red. Green is in his contract year. He will play well, especially if the team is contending. Better enjoy him while he’s here. I know I will.
There have been studies that indicate there is very little statistical difference between a player’s “walk” year and a normal year. Baseballprospectus.com did one using only players that batted 300 or more times that indicated players were 2.2 runs better than average and pitchers were 1.1 runs lower than average over a normalized season, basically no difference.
**************** page 509 of the above (have been studies)…………. No statistic available for California style hipsters defamed by their parents with names like Kalil or Troy. The barber says these far out dudes aren’t easily observed. Troys wife has to keep up her equestrian chops, another major motivator. Surf board wax and coco butter have also skyrocketed.
Khalil (not Kalil) Greene (not Green) was born in Butler, PA and raised in Key West, FL. You’re making me think of Oblio, the kid in the Harry Nilsson album that didn’t have a point. Me and My Arrow, ta da da da tada da da .
Other than the bullpen the Cardinal’s biggest problem last year was the bottom third of the lineup. Once we passed the 6th batter we usually had to wait an inning before we had a chance to score again. And it seemed that the pitcher came up with runners in scoring position and two out an inordinate number of times.
Greene will make a huge difference in that respect and so far his defense has been solid if not above average. Even if Skip doesn’t make it at 2b the options we have seem to be quite a bit better than the offense Izturis provided last year.
One thing I wonder about is what do we do if Mather is hitting around .300 with 8-10 bombs when Glaus is ready to return, probably sometime in mid-May.
Sooner, let’s hope we have to worry about where we’re going to play a bunch of these guys. I see Skip as about our sixth or seventh option in the outfield behind Ludwick, Ankiel, Duncan, Rasmus and Mather with Jay and Barton as contenders.
If Skip doesn’t make it at second base and TLR has other options at leadoff (Thurston, Ramus or ?)what happens? I know TLR has said that Skip is his leadoff hitter but I have to believe that TLR is giving Skip a confidence builder, probably trying to take some of the pressure of the position switch off Skip. Circumstances change, why would we go with a poorer lineup with Skip in the outfield?
I know, I know, I’m sounding like a conspiracy theorist without all the riddles WC throws at us but there are complications.
I just read yesterday that Schumaker had the second highest batting average against right handers of players with at least 300 plate appearances in 2008. You can’t ditch him.
That’s a good point, Nutlaw, but I’d still prefer Duncan’s power.
In 2008, Skip’s line vs. right-handers was .340/.393/.468. His career line is .324/.371/.451.
Duncan, on the other hand, has a career line against right-handers of .282/.374/.519 and that includes his dreadful performance from the middle of 2007 on. In 2006, his line was .318/.390/.644. Those are huge numbers.
I like Duncan in the two hole ahead of Albert, where he figures to get pitches to hit. He has demonstrated the ability to reach base and IMO the key to getting Albert pitches to hit is having runners on base when he comes up. Nobody in baseball is good enough that pitchers are going to want to pitch to Albert instead of the cleanup hitter but if there’s no place to put him, they will have to pitch to him.
Well, if Skip can increase his walk rate, he’ll be an excellent lead-off guy. The Cardinals are already too power-heavy as is. Pujols, Glaus, Ankiel, Ludwick, Duncan, and even Greene are all power hitters. Molina certainly won’t lead off. Someone needs to do it. You can’t balance your lineup well if all you’ve got is power.
Pujols has been described as a line drive hitter with power. Glaus and Duncan both have career a OBP higher than Skip’s.
The second baseman (whoever that turns out to be) has a good chance to be the leadoff hitter. I’m hoping it’s Skip. I’m selfish, though. I’ve grown weary of all the nepotism talk about Duncan. I’d like to see him go off with a .290/.380/.570 year with about 35 home runs. That might shut up some of the nay-sayers.
As for Skip increasing his walk rate, the word “if” is key. He did a good job in that regard last year, increasing his rate from a walk every 20+ AB’s to one about every 11 AB.
You know what they say about “if” though. If grasshoppers had machine guns, crows wouldn’t mess with them.
As for balancing a lineup, give me the type of lineup Earl Weaver used to employ. He platooned here and there, had guys with good on base skills and lots of power, playing for the three run home run.. He also had great pitchers and a wonderful defense.