I’ve said it before and I will continue to say it. I believe Skip Schumaker’s success or failure at second base will have as much or more impact on top prospect Colby Rasmus making the 2009 St. Louis Cardinals out of spring training than will Rasmus’ own play.
The problem is that Rasmus’ chances are hitting on neither cylinder right now.
The outfielder is sidelined, for what is said to be short-term in duration, due to hamstring soreness. The 22-year-old has missed almost three games after leaving after one at-bat on Sunday against Florida. Even so, Rasmus is still leading the Cardinals in at-bats with 33.
The top prospect is batting just .242 for a Cardinals club that is leading all Florida spring training clubs in run scoring. Of the 18 players in Cards camp with at least ten at bats coming into Wednesday, only four have a lower batting average.
Two of them, Jason LaRue (.200) and Ryan Ludwick (.130), are assured of jobs. The other two, like Rasmus, are playing for their roster spots – Brian Barton (.208) and Joe Thurston (.182).
Even worse for Rasmus is that the Schumaker experiment at second base is drawing more fire as the errors mount. Rather than repeat it, I will simply link to Joe Strauss’ Wednesday article from the Post-Dispatch.
I will highlight just one point. Even with generous amounts of home-cooked scoring, Schumaker’s fielding percentage currently sits at .826. Just as there is time for Rasmus’ bat to come around, there is also time for Schumaker’s defense to improve.
Not too much time, though.
With spring elongated by a week due to the World Baseball Classic, Schumaker would never have a longer period to try to learn the position on the fly, but no one should have expected it to be successful. Hope, yes, but expect, no.
As one would assume, manager Tony La Russa doesn’t want to talk about it, because realistically there is nothing he can say.
Tony knows he doesn’t want to risk injury to his franchise first baseman as an errant Schumaker throw on Sunday almost caused. The skipper also understands he needs to maintain the confidence of his ground ball-inducing pitching staff. That group won’t be able to deal with unearned runs on a regular basis, such as the two that scored due to Skip’s most recent miscue on Tuesday.
Todd Wellemeyer, Tuesday’s victim, was likely speaking on behalf of all the Cardinals pitchers when he made the point abundantly clear after the game.
“During the season, it’s not acceptable. It’s all there is to it. I don’t think Tony will have it,” Wellemeyer said.
La Russa has already announced that Schumaker is taking a game off from playing in the field on Thursday. He has scheduled the 29-year-old to be his designated hitter against the Boston Red Sox, potentially blocking off one avenue for Rasmus to get back into the lineup in the process. Friday’s split squad games seem a good alternate target for Colby’s return.
The Skip to DH move, even as temporary as one game, should allow several of the other second base candidates to receive some more meaningful playing time at the position. Currently, “Plan B” for second base is very unclear.
In another interesting tidbit, Derrick Goold reports that Skip has requested spring time in the outfield to ensure he is ready to play there. La Russa seemed fine with the idea of Schumaker moving between infield and outfield if needed. Yet this shouldn’t be necessary unless doubts are creeping in as to the permanence of the second base shift.
La Russa admitted as much when he told Strauss the following:
“If good things happen, then you keep giving him a chance because it means a lot to him. If it doesn’t do it, we gave it the ol’ college try.”
If the Cardinals have to permanently abandon the Schumaker move, how might the dominoes fall?
A trade of outfield surplus for a second baseman would be just as ideal now as it was last fall, but the same old problems remain, along with a new one.
First of all, will a decent player become available from a club that matches up with St. Louis in terms of need? Second, what is the chance that second baseman won’t cost more in salary than the player(s) the Cardinals would give up in return?
Another recent Strauss article quoted an organization source that the signing of reliever Dennys Reyes last week exhausted all the payroll flexibility in the team’s budget until at least mid-season. Unless an exception would be made, that may narrow what few options general manager John Mozeliak could unearth over the next three weeks. Money would also seem to rule out signing an aging free agent stop-gap such as former Cardinal Mark Grudzielanek or Ray Durham.
Skip is set offensively as the club’s leadoff hitter and despite the defensive challenges, is still batting .333 this spring. With no minor league options remaining, there will be no temptation to send him down to Memphis to get more work at the position.
Who would play second?
Of the four other candidates, as noted above, Thurston isn’t hitting. Brendan Ryan, slowed by injury earlier, is just 2-for-8 (.250). I have felt those two would have the inside track, with Thurston especially interesting because he bats from the left side.
Brian Barden had two hits Wednesday and is batting .429, but has been given limited action (just 14 at-bats). Tyler Greene, one of the early surprises of camp, has seen his spring average drop to .269. Neither has been eliminated, nor is Jarrett Hoffpauir (6-for-15, .400) entirely out of it, either.
Defensively, Schumaker would undoubtedly step back into the starting left field job, at least the majority of the time, against right-handed pitchers. With Rasmus and fellow outfielder Chris Duncan also hitting left-handed and with incumbent starters Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick set at the other two outfield positions, there would be no place for Rasmus to start. Add spring RBI leader Joe Mather back into the outfield mix once Troy Glaus reclaims his job at third base and… well, you get the idea.
Clearly, the Cardinals don’t want Rasmus on the bench, whether in St. Louis or Memphis.
Like Schumaker already doesn’t have enough pressure playing for himself; he very well may be playing for Colby, too.
Brian, I’m going to nitpick and disagree slightly with something you said: “Yet this shouldn’t be necessary unless doubts are creeping in as to the permanence of the second base shift.” I don’t think doubts are “creeping in” as much as doubts have always been there and have not been dissipated by Skip’s play during games yet. I don’t think anybody, including Skp and TLR, ever thought Skip would make a smooth transition to 2B. Maybe TLR hoped the transition would be quicker, but I doubt that is the case. I have no idea how long TLR will stick with Skip at 2B, but I believe his comment to winning games (series) is still his number one priority, so if TLR does not see Skip at 2B as improving the chances of winning, he will end the “experiment”.
I agree Brian, it is downright scary thinking of errant throws from second to first base taking out El Hombre for the season. Seems like the “open competition” at second starts today?
Skip Shumaker is trying very hard to learn a new position, but really it probably isn’t enough time for him to become competent at second.
Would be great if it worked, if it doesn’t pan out — you are more than likely correct that Rasmus starts in Triple A barring injury to one of the incumbent outfielders.
Fair enough, Oquie. I also have a minor difference with one of your points.
I think that rather than the fear of losing games, what will drive the change is the fear of losing the confidence of the pitching staff, as Wellemeyer aptly stated. The 2B move would be great, but not at the expense of dividing the club. I am sure TLR is very much in tune with that risk.
Brian, I’m not sure that Skip would “undoubtedly” move back into the starting left field job. By your numbers in an earlier column, Chris Duncan has started the most games there in each of the last three years. If he’s healthy, as he appears to be, IMO he’s the best option in left field against right-handed starters. Even with his dreadful last season and a half, his lifetime OBP is higher than Skip’s and he slugs at 20% higher than Skip.
Duncan may not fit the stereotypical role of leadoff hitter, but I wouldn’t put it past TLR to try something different with the top spot in the order if somebody other than Skip is the second baseman. Dunc’s ceiling is a lot higher than Skip’s.
I agree with respect to the impact on Rasmus. Keep in mind, however, that LaRussa basically (if not explicitly) told Colby that he had to hit .300 from the date of their “chat” last week going forward. He was batting around .200 when the chat occurred, so I would guess he is in fact around .300 on the mulligan scoring system.
As to Skip, once again Joe Strauss stirs the pot. He has been an outspoken critic of the idea, though he portrays himself as just a skeptic. (St. Louis really has an amazing number of beat writers telling the club what to do, doesn’t it? It’s a wonder TLR ever won anything before the great JS! arrived.) I don’t think the plug is being pulled. Who are Strauss’s sources? Tony’s alter egos? Mo can’t pull the plug. Luhnow can’t pull the plug. Red Schoendeinst can’t do it either. The only person who can do that is Tony. It may well happen, but it hasn’t happened yet. Four errors in 10 games. Okay, that’s the same as All-Star Dan Uggla. Shall we go back and look at Ceasar Izturis’s error total from last spring? I would say, “cautiously pessimistic” and let’s wait two more weeks for the result.
But surely, if Skip returns to the outfield, Colby only makes the club if Duncan is traded. I see Memphis in the cards for April.
Do you mean “oddly” independent writers Red? This sounds like one of WC’s solo improves two weeks ago! The variables that are influencing this situation are not all being addressed in this article. Only the factors that are “now” seemingly public record.
Some possible moves by an aggressive to BD to keep Colby viable:
1)Trade the improving Chris Duncan to the AL and really piss Tony and Dave off.
2) Ryan Ludwick is not a lock for a position. His salary makes his value difficult at this time with cheaper options available around the league. Even in a trade. If he continues to struggle, BD knows his future isn’t going to be with this club anyway. He could be released and save 3 mill for the second baseman that we need. Three birds with one stone there, all within and BD/Mo’s privileges.
DD, the past numbers are what they are, but do you think the starting numbers would have been the same without injury? Schu played a lot in center because Ankiel was hurt. Also, Ludwick didn’t take over right field until last season was underway.
TLR has already announced his leadoff man is Skip. If he doesn’t start at second or in left, where would he start? I do agree that Duncan getting time is another problem.
RedC, I am not sure how much of this attention should be attributed to Joe Strauss. He may be digging, but it isn’t a hard spot to find dirt as evidenced by the quotes from Wellemeyer and TLR himself.
WC, there is NO way Ludwick would be released even if he goes hitless the entire remainder of spring training!
Brian, I think that Duncan would’ve played even more in left field but for the injuries. The kind of numbers he put up in 2006 and the first half of 2007 are All-Star caliber: 38 dingers in 162 games with an OPS of over .900. He was basically a left-handed version of the 2008 Ludwick.
You’re right that TLR has named Schu as his leadoff hitter but I believe things are a little more open than that, especially if Duncan continues to pound the ball.
I keep reading from seemingly every corner that Duncan should be traded. I disagree, mainly because I think his value to the 2009 Cardinals can be much greater than what he might bring in trade. What rational GM is going to trade an established second baseman or starting pitcher for a guy who underwent the first ever insertion of a titanium vertebrae in a professional athlete?
Ludwick to be released? Wow, WC must have really long arms because he is reaching way down into the bottom of the barrel for this kind of lunacy.
Yes, and the chastisement of the Yankees by leaking top secret information, obtained by mysterious sources, at impossible odds, after they spent 400 mill on the free agent market, against their star player A- Rod, could never happen.
The pretense for releasing Ludwick is already excepted by everyone here. No money. The only recourse; and also it fits nicely with the master plan. Oh yea, it was all Tony’s fault for releasing Kennedy too. Baseball has little to do with these decisions the Cards are making.. Baseball logic only exposes the things that have to be played out in the open. Tony has already demoted Ludwick from the 4th slot. He is expendable in both BD’s mind, and Tony’s Brian.
WC—
You are smoking something funny. Ludwick will not be released, just as Ankiel isn’t going to be traded. I think your predictive powers have experienced a decline.
WC, are you suggesting the Yankees leaked the info about ARod as a way to get out from under his contract?
Are you suggesting we have all ACCEPTED the fact that Ludwick will be released? I’m with RedC here. You’re making suggestions that don’t make any sense at all.
What does Kennedy’s release have to do this “master plan” you see in your little world? The Cardinals are paying all but about $400,000 of his salary.
I just said that those were options on the table Red. As I see the table. Your question Red, should have been, ” who is chastising the Yankees WC”? And I would have said, “your allot closer to these men in hoods than you think Red”.
I noticed an article at baseballamerica.com today about the Cardinals’ wealth of prospects at third base. it’s premium content and I chose not to renew over there a couple of years ago.
It’s nice that our farm system is getting more notice in the national publications.
DD, thanks for the tip about the BA article. It was penned by Kary Booher, who knows his way around Cardinals prospects and is a fine writer. It is quite long, but feels like it was written at the start of spring training as it assumes Freese is in camp and fighting for the job. There is also much ink on Wallace, three short paragraphs at the end on Craig and two sentences about Mather that were probably inserted after the fact.
One thing did catch my eye. Booher notes Wallace dropped his body fat from 14% to 9%, which seems in conflict with comments Joe Strauss made about Wallace’s conditioning being a concern this spring.
From his March 4 online chat:
Feels like the traditionalists taking a shot at the numbers guys using Strauss to deliver the message, doesn’t it?
I’d like to be a fly on the wall during some of the interviews Strauss holds. Comments are often made by people that are open to wide interpretations. I can just see an old baseball guy looking at those tree trunk legs on Wallace and suggesting that he needs to lose some weight there, without any thought of body weight or whatever. Is it possible that Strauss took a comment like that and ran with the idea of poor conditioning?
I used to read Kary Booher’s articles about the Springfield team quite often and I agree with you about his writing. His pictures always make me think of Pee Wee Herman. Ha Ha.
It’s been said a few times already, but simply due to the preposterousness of the assertion that the Cardinals might release the 2008 National League’s fourth highest ranked player in OPS mere weeks after inking him to a new contract, I feel the need to confirm my sanity and agree that it will not happen.
Mar 12. Mather rakes, Ludwick goes 0 fer. The pressure builds on Shu. Colby stays out of sight and much loved. Albert makes an interesting career move. The plot thickens.
Nut, Ludwick is now worth a questionable 4 mill as of today. His value would be very difficult to realize at this point in a trade. (Abreu for 5mill.) The pressure on him is mounting. Should he be batting 120 in two weeks. I would bet that they do release him. His contract is not guaranteed if I’m not mistaken. He is sweating it me thinks. 3mill is a lot of dry powder for a near bankrupt Org like the Cards.
WC–
You are being ridiculous. Ludwick will not be released. If he’s batting .140 as of late June come see me. Colby is out of sight because he has today off, like the past two days, because he has a muscle strain that TLR doesn’t want to chance. This is spring training, you understand? Albert’s career move is….what, exactly? Is he running for Jesus?
I’m not so sure Mather raking doesn’t mean there isn’t some pressure on him, either. He ain’t exactly Scott Rolen out there. Schumaker is far more likely to have a job than Mather given their respective abilities and histories (though I think both will be on the 25-man three weeks from now).
I’m trying to tune to your wavelength, but my AM bandwidth isn’t short enough, evidently.
Consider this Red. The Cards tried to trade Ludwick a number of times. With the market as it is, if someone offered the Team 3 mill cash for Luddy right now, do you think they would take it. Thats what they are faced with. They had to offer Arbitration. They have an out for the 3 large. I’m watching with interest, what they really think he is worth. If he had any injury at all, of the 3 week to a month severity, he would be gone, and you can bet his agent told him as much.
WC–
No, they wouldn’t take it. As you aware, you can’t trade players for cash. Besides, Ludwick is cost-controlled for two more years. He’s having a rotten spring training. It’s been known to happen. I’m hoping he snaps out of it and starts hitting. He may have an injury that hasn’t been diagnosed yet. But unless he has inoperable cancer, he will be on the team at the end of the month–on the DL at worst.
Yeah, a bat boy with a bag containing 3 mill in cash considerations. There is very little if any back slippage in Cost-controlled Arbitration. Only raises, starting at 4 mill. If he had a bad year, he wouldn’t be worth anything and traded or released for worms. He is worth 3mill this very minute, if they could sell it. Considering what they’re selling, and getting away with, I’m watching with interest. Enough said.
I’m not sold on the idea that the Cardinals tried to trade Ludwick a number of times and I’d be real curious as to what WC’s source is for that comment.
Who knows what went on in the talks about Holliday and Kelly Johnson. For all we know, the other teams asked for Ludwick and Mo may have felt the asking price was too high in each case.
I realize the world economy is taking a hit like most of us have never seen but I would be shocked beyond belief if Ludwick was cut before opening day.
I think it’s great we have WC here to stir the pot and working harder than James Brown to get a rise out of us. Every group needs their own goofball.
[...] himself at the top of the lineup. As Brian Walton from “The Cardinal Nation” blogged about yesterday, this does not bode well for Colby Rasmus’s chances to make the team. Schumaker really [...]
It has been unfair for Skip to try to make such a quick transition. And I think it is overlooked that a guy who could really have helped with that is managing team Puerto Rico.
cfit, I don’t think it is fair to assign any blame to Oquendo. After all, camp is full of former MLB second basemen, including Joe Pettini and TLR himself. I don’t think Skip is failing due to lack of instruction. IMHO, he just needed more time. Too bad Skip couldn’t have played winter ball and gotten some lower pressure game action under his belt, but even in winter ball, there is pressure to win.
According to Gameday, Skip was in the middle of a 5-4-3 double play today against Baltimore. Baby steps.
I had thought, too, about the absence of Oquendo being a drawback but Brian is right, there is no shortage of instruction available for Skip. He just has to relax and execute.
Skip also handled a grounder with two outs and a runner on third today in the next inning.
Couldn’t help but notice that Goold this morning joins those saying Rasmus is playing better since the chat with La Russa, yet also notes Colby is 2-for-9 with five strikeouts in his last three games.