In a recent post, I looked at St. Louis Cardinals history in terms of long winning and losing stretches. This time around, I am going to focus in on the most recent five seasons to see what streak information might tell us.
Following are the club’s results in terms of wins over the last five years as well as the timing of their longest winning and losing streaks. From part one, you may recall that the club’s all-time records in terms of consecutive wins and losses are 14 and 12 respectively, each set over seventy years ago.
Where there were multiple streaks of the same length, the months of each streak are listed separately.
Winning and losing streaks – St. Louis Cardinals – 2004 through 2008
| Year | Wins | Longest win streak | Month | Longest losing streak | Month |
| 2008 | 86 | 6 | September | 7 | September |
| 2007 | 78 | 5 | August | 9 | September |
| September | |||||
| 2006 | 83 | 7 | July | 8 | June |
| July-August | |||||
| 2005 | 100 | 6 | April | 3 | May |
| June | |||||
| September | |||||
| 2004 | 105 | 9 | Aug-Sept | 4 | September |
I am not sure what I expected to see, but in terms of sheer numbers, the fact that not even the 100-plus win clubs of 2004 and 2005 were able to string together at least ten wins at a time surprised me a bit. While the most winning clubs generally had longer streaks, the data is not all that compelling.
Looking at losing streaks seems to say a little more. In each of the last three seasons, long losing skids of from seven to nine games occurred. On the other hand, in the two previous winning seasons, the runs of consecutive losses were effectively capped at four or fewer.
Consider 2005. I find it amazing that club endured a season-long worst stretch of only three consecutive losses, but even more so that it occurred only three times all year long. There was some very consistent winning going on.
What is probably my main takeaway from this data can be seen in the calendar information. Of the six months of play each season, September has clearly been the one month for streaky behavior in recent seasons – both good and bad.
Half (three of six) of the longest winning streaks in each of the last five seasons occurred in September. It is just as striking when looking at the losing runs. In that case, four of eight of the worst stretches occurred during the final full month.
Why are half the longest streaks coming during just one 30-day period each season?
One might try to wash this away by suggesting the reason for streaky play late is due to the team being out of pennant contention or because of increased reliance on less-proven players promoted from the minor leagues for the final month.
I don’t think I buy it. With the added incentive of the wild card, the Cardinals have remained in the chase late in almost every recent season, including 2008. Compared to other clubs, it seems to me that the Cardinals use called-up players less extensively during the final month than their opponents, though that is a gut feeling. I have not made formal comparisons with other teams.
Could it be that the hard-driving Tony La Russa begins to wear thin as the days shorten? Are the players just tired? Aren’t the other teams tired, too? Do the Cardinals have more late-season injuries than other clubs?
It could be one factor or a combination of many.
Still, when considering the recent streakiness exhibited by the Cardinals, they seem to avoid reaching too high or falling too low for the majority of the season, at least until the final month.
I am quite sure that if the coaching staff knew how to fine tune their behavior to maximize the positive results and minimize the negative, they would quickly adjust their routine accordingly.
If only it was so simple…
After reading your article I came up with another question. Could there be a scheduling component to the streakiness the past couple of seasons?
This brings up another question that I know the answer to, but I would like to hear your take on. Looking at the Cardinal’s month-by-month record since 2001, the past few years have not seen many months outside of April and September with a winning record. What would you attribute that to?
The Cards ran out of gas owing to injuries the past couple of years. In 2008, Ankiel, Duncan, Carpenter, and Izzy were injured or dysfunctional. In 2007, there was the horrible injury to Juan Encarnacion, a Rolen shoulder problem, the season long loss of Carpenter, the initial injury to Duncan.
While Duncan echoed La Russa’s sentiment regarding Franklin’s qualifications to close, he also admitted, “I’m thinking a different combination, if it makes sense, makes us a better pitching staff.
This is a provocative statement following Tony introduction of Franklin into the closers race. Could Tony be preparing a play to try and insure he has more control of some of the relievers of our recent conversations. Example;
If he declares Franklin his closer, does that effect the declared roles for either KMac or Motte, Kinny maybe? What is Duncans “different combination”?
bdiffern, I’m not sure where you get your data, but the Cardinals have had 32 months of play in the months of May, June, July and August since 2001, including that year. They have had had winning records in 22 of those months, losing records in seven months and came out even three times.
That said, I’m curious to know the reason you believe they have had trouble winning.
I looked a little harder at the monthly numbers and checked that they have been worse in April and September than the other months, going 9-5-2. The last three Septembers have produced losing records.
Their records by month, based on wins and losses:
April 5-2-1
May 6-2
June 4-2-2
July 6-2
August 6-1-1
September 4-3-1
Overall, they are 31-12-5. I used baseball-reference.com for my info and the April months include any off March games and September included any regular season October games.
Post six was supposed to read odd March games and not off March games.
Dave Duncan will reveal his closer combination ideas, in due course.
He may even reveal those ideas right here at Cardinal nation in a thread about relief pitchers and not about winning streaks.
The threads are chosen by Mr. Walton. If one has an unrelated thought in mind, where to place it?
Here is my unrelated, cheery thought of the day. Two prospects who could rebound in 2009 are 1b Mark Hamilton and RHP David Kopp. Hamilton lost time last year owing to a broken wrist. Ryan Ludwick lost time to an injury like that in his past and overcame it. Kopp had a foot injury in 08 and an arthoscopic labrum cleanup in 09. Neither major injuries. Both late 2nd round picks, who have some good talents. It would be nice to see them come on.
Beau, my comment was really directed more at WC, but since you asked me where an unrelated thought might be placed, there are nine threads listed on the home page of this blog. At least three of those were written about the bullpen. In this case, any of those three would have been more on topic.
I won’t go any further with this because it’s not my blog and I apologize in advance to Brian.
At least WC kindly spared the Cardinal Nation something about DeWitt, the Memphis Redbirds, Halliburton, and deep oil. I salute his willpower in suppressing this powerful topic.
Someone done hijacked this thread!
As there are only one or two new topics per day, if there isn’t a logical place to put a comment, I am fine with unrelated posts as long as chaos doesn’t break out.
Beau, I agree on your two choices. A little over a year ago, I liked Hamilton as my top power prospect in the system ahead of Joe Mather. This winter, I put Kopp #28 on my personal rankings. Despite the injuries, he has a load of talent.
Well, okay then. How ’bout those Dutch boys in the WBC? They’re up 1-0 after six over Puerto Rico after upsetting the Dominican Republic Saturday.
Yadi is 0-2 so far for Puerto Rico with a couple of weak ground ball outs.
DD, it is that time of year again when Sidney Ponson impresses for just long enough to land a contract and then reverts to being himself. He’ll be waived, sign with the Yankees for the tenth time, get waived again and return to the beaches of Aruba to rest up before starting the cycle all over again.
I want to go back to Aruba if for no other reason to eat the seafood special at the Driftwood Restaurant. That was probably the best meal I’ve ever experienced. The beaches are okay too!
Yadi with the bases loaded double in the eighth makes it 2-1 Puerto Rico.
Hamilton was a prospect coming out of a Houston area high school, but his father or a relative had gone to Tulane, thus so did Mark. He’s a Boras lad. Doesn’t have the useful athleticism of Mather, but if he hits enough, he does not need it. There will be a lot of talent at Springfield or Memphis this year.
Kopp has been slowed by petty injuries. If he gets untracked, he could move fast.
The name Ponson always reminds me of his knighthood. Not long ago, the authoritiesrounded up a bounder name Stanford, running a Ponzi scheme out of Antigua. Stanford too had been knighted. Sir Sidney and Sir Alan, a rum pair.