The most visible prospect among the St. Louis Cardinals’ improving stash is outfielder Colby Rasmus, in major league camp as a non-roster invitee. One of the biggest roster questions for the club is whether there will be room for the 22-year-old to make the team.
One by-product of all that attention is that the player’s every move is analyzed and often over analyzed. On Saturday, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch ran an article about Rasmus in which they highlighted a recent run of eight spring plate appearances through his first at-bat of Saturday’s game.
Eight.
The headline screamed, “La Russa talk appears to have paid off for young St. Louis Cardinals Cardinals outfielder Rasmus”. Whew!
Conclusions drawn:
- The player may no longer be pressing.
- A talk the manager had with the player must have worked.
- A drop to the ninth spot in the order must have worked.
- All is right with the world.
Ok, I added the final point, but hopefully, you get the idea. Eight plate appearances aren’t enough to determine anything. Unfortunately, spring training is as long for the writers as it is for the players and coaches.
For the record, Rasmus went 0-for-3 with a strikeout over the rest of Saturday’s game following the eight cherry-picked plate appearances trumpeted in the P-D article.
Even my colleague Ray Mileur at Scout.com declared this morning that Rasmus has appeared to have made the team – with almost four weeks of exhibition games to go.
While Rasmus has been given the most at-bats on the Cardinals team, and in fact, the most of any player in any club’s spring training, he is hitting just .250. With his usual good eye at the plate, his on-base percentage is .351 due to five walks taken. Three extra base hits put Rasmus’ slugging mark at .375.
In other words, with only about 30 more points of spring OPS, Rasmus can reach Aaron Miles’ 2008 regular season mark of .753.
Am I suggesting Miles is Rasmus’ equal as a hitter? Of course not. But making pronouncements over 32 spring at-bats, let alone eight, is microanalysis at its best, or should I say, worst.
If one could take spring performances to date to the bank, Allen Craig, a man without a clear home defensively who realistically will be fighting to make the Memphis roster for the first time, should be starting at first base for St. Louis ahead of .286-hitting Albert Pujols. After all, Craig’s current line is a lusty .438/.526/.688.
One of the early worries was whether Rasmus, seemingly being pushed by the front office, would see enough at bats in Tony La Russa’s camp. Those fears were unfounded.
With an assist due to regular starting centerfielder Rick Ankiel being slowed by Achilles tendon soreness, Rasmus has seen action early and often this spring, including time in centerfield, as noted above.
As camp began, La Russa tossed out the idea of hitting Rasmus ninth in his order, but started spring games with Colby seeing action at or near the top instead. For the last several days, Rasmus has been in that ninth spot, as originally suggested.
Let’s move on to the broader landscape, which I assert affects Rasmus’ immediate future on the club as much or more than his own play. Inherent in the question of whether he makes the Cardinals are several other still-open issues related to other incumbent outfielders:
- Will Skip Schumaker be able to execute a successful transition to a major league-capable second baseman on the fly, thereby opening a left-handed outfield spot?
- Will Joe Mather start the season at third base, making a bit more room in a very crowded outfield?
- Will the Cardinals finally engineer a trade to relieve some of the outfield surplus to address other needs after a winter of attempts and failures?
Here’s hoping that Rasmus does well this spring, but let’s check back on his progress in a few weeks, not in a few more at-bats.
So, how is Chris Carpenter doing today?
Brian, Colby represents the Steinbrenner line right now. He is what the boss wants. The full Cardinal PR apparatus is focused on him. Bartons sudden outburst was certainly extinguished by the press and Tony because he isn’t part of the business plan, or the struggle if you will between BD and Tony. To be honest, its the unknowable miracle of hot young property that will lead this team this year. No one is going to pitch to Albert so he is just decoration anyway. Colby makes BD look competent. Tony is playing it too. Lets see where it goes.
I tried to show a correlation here a week ago about Tony overexposing Colby with things like 0/6 opportunities. Tony gives Colby a pep talk on the same day he gets his lefty. Go figure. I gotta run.
The Cards seem to have experiments during many springs. While each is probably sincere to a degree, at the end of spring, some experiments are continued, some are ended. There is a tea-reading art to trying to foretell which experiment will survive. In 2007, I first thought the Looper experiment was absurd. Then I thought maybe it will happen. Then they will change their minds, after watching Braden. But finally, it just happenned.
Rasmus hit .275 at Springfield, .251 at Memphis, IIRC. I expect him to get some hits during spring training and fire up fans. Yet the normal assignment for someone like him is AAA. Hope otherwise is indicative of the media focus on him. Anyone else, no one would even think about it. The more time spent mastering AAA, the readier Rasmus will be to contribute in the majors when he gets there. This will be best for the Cardinals in terms of wins and losses.
I first thought the Skip experiment was absurd, though if anyone could do it, it would be he. Now that I have been reminded of the Dave Lopes precedent, Lopes being age 28 when he moved from OF to a ML career at 2B, I am more willing to believe Skip could do it too.
Regarding 3B, it looks like Wallace is not in the running. Most at bats go to Mather, because he needs the work in the field. If Freese’s heel cannot enable him to play, it looks like the Cards go with Joe. It would be remarkable to have 2 conversions among 4 IFs, but it could well happen.
Re a trade…..it would be hard to part with Ludwick or Ankiel and get a good return. Duncan may have little present trade value. How could this team be made better via a trade? It could use a closer, but finding a match for the right price could be hard. It might take an emergent injury to a starting pitcher to justify a trade.
We fans may need to become accustomed to the perception surplus OFs. From a team point of view, this seems less of a problem than a shortage would be. In any event, someday some OFs may be traded. For now, this is a strong suit and Mo can sit tight.
I agree Brian , too much emphasis on 8 at bats and too much emphasis on the at bats before that.
But I am excited about Rasmus’ potential and I really like him in the batting order nine spot ,
for now. Less pressure and with his ability to take a walk, run around the bases and some gap power it is possibly a really great way to break him into the lineup.
He is certainly being given every chance to make the team. Skippy and Joey Bombs in the infield are helping Rasmus’ chances.
What happens when Glaus starts to play the end of May and what happens if The Cobbler burns out at second? Probably depends on how everyone involved is hitting and fielding. (duh)
If the starting outfield turns out to primarily be Ludwick, Ankiel and Rasmus, do you think Duncan is the only other outfielder taken north with Mather and Shu awailable as needed?
The bullpen seems the most unpredictable situation of all. The spring training games will need to be played out. Even then, there may be some tough roster choices.
As to P-D’s “microfocus” on Rasmus, this may be what Mo likes reading when he sits down with the Sunday sports section. The Cards should like a story about TLR and Colby collaborating as team-mates. TLR admires Colby’s base-running technique. This story tells the fans TLR loves Rasmus. Its a good message to get out there. If I wrote for the P-D, I would be writing cheerful stuff like that too.
If I had a Post of the Week award, I would hereby give it to you. Truer words have never been spoken!
On the surface, I would say “yes”. Where we have to start is that if Skip is the leadoff man. Period.
If Skip is the second baseman, then your scenario would be plausible. But if Skip isn’t the second baseman, then he will be the left fielder. If Skip is the left fielder (at least on the busy side of a platoon), then there is no place for Rasmus to start.
This is why I continue to believe that Skip is playing at least as much for Rasmus as he is for himself. Skip is on the team either way. Rasmus does not have such a guarantee, nor should he.
The Rasmus story is now the most interesting one at camp, since it’s almost foregone that Skip will be the secondbaseman if he can manage to avoid embarrassing himself in the next couple of weeks. With Mather at third, I’m counting no fewer than six outfielders on the squad. The bubble guys, it seems to me are Kinney/Motte/Thompson in the bullpen and Barton in the outfield. Someone at VEB posed an interesting scenario, which I think may be brewing in Tony’s head: carry eight relievers to start the season. With all the versatility in the subs (Greene or Ryan and Freese) and the regulars (Schumaker & Mather), this could work. You carry a short bench and get to keep a long man (Thompson–whom Duncan likes for innings protection) in the pen.
So you could have an outfield of Ludwick, Ankiel and Rasmus, with Duncan on the bench (4).
An infield with Mather, Green, Schumaker and Pujols, with T. Greene/Ryan and Freese on the bench (6).
Six righthanders in the bullpen and two lefties (8).
Molina and LaRue (2).
Five starters (5).
When Glaus returns, either Duncan is traded or one of the relievers (more likely) is sent down. They did carry a short bench for a time last year, and given the worries Duncan has expressed about early-season blow-ups, I can see them trying to create a spot for Thompson while keeping all the short arms as well.
RedC, no one should ever say “never” in terms of the future, but I can say so for the past. In the 13 years TLR has been in St. Louis, he has never broken camp with eight relievers. Could it happen? Sure. Do I think it will? No, I don’t. TLR values left-right changes with hitters as well as pitchers. Still, it is an interesting idea. I do predict that long before the end of camp, there will be complaints about the excessive length of spring training…
Well, as of two years ago, TLR had never broken camp with a relief pitcher as his No. 4 starter. As of a year ago, he had never broken camp with a pitcher as his centerfielder. Of course, maybe Schumaker playing second uses up his quota of weirdness for the spring.
OK, but I suggest that player role changes are a different matter than roster construction.
Two errors for Skip in the first five innings Sunday, one throwing and one fielding. The second was scored a hit, but even Mike Shannon called it a clear error on hometown scoring. (Update: The scorer must have come out of the sun and came to his senses. Two official errors for Skip and six for the team.)
Brian–
I saw that. Yikes! Could be back to Plan A, unfortunately.