Despite all the off-season roster churn, the St. Louis Cardinals have relatively few battles for roster spots this spring.
Sure, the middle infield is muddled and there is a scrum (or perhaps there will be) over who takes over temporarily for Troy Glaus at third base. Colby Rasmus’ immediate major league future may depend as much on Skip Schumaker’s successful conversion to second base as it does him pulling out of a mini slump to start camp.
The rotation is set. The catching is set. The infield and outfield are getting lined up. Until Thursday, the bullpen seemed aligned, too. Yet the concern remained about the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of the contenders for the second left-handed spot behind Trever Miller.
That concern was addressed with Thursday’s announcement of the signing of Dennys Reyes to a two-year contract. While that is yesterday’s news now, several of the aftershocks attracted my attention.
One is that Miller is going to be tried in the ninth inning, according to an idea of pitching coach Dave Duncan, as shared with the Post-Dispatch. It would not be to displace the winner of the competition between hard-throwing right-handers Jason Motte and Chris Perez, but instead to offer a different look from the other side.
The 35-year-old Miller is a veteran of over 500 MLB games and has accrued a total of ten saves, with three the most gained in any season, at least until now. Miller’s first shot in the ninth was during Friday’s tie game. He yielded the winning run on a pair of hits and a walk.
The presence of Reyes also raised another question as to the identities of the seven members of the bullpen or the 12th pitcher as camp breaks.
Here is what Tony La Russa said to MLB.com on Friday. You may have to read it a second or third time, however…
”… we have that [last] spot. It could go to a third left-hander, or it could go to a right-hander. If somebody wants a gift of a spot on the roster, that’s not the kind of guy you want on the club. You have to earn it. It just goes from two spots open — one spot open and one maybe — to one maybe.”
While La Russa did not identify the six spots taken, let’s take a run through the candidates to see what the manager and pitching coach may be thinking.
First, we have the relievers whose spots seem very secure. They include:
1. Ryan Franklin
2. Miller (L)
3. Reyes (L)
Then we have two returnees whose jobs seem pretty safe:
4. Kyle McClellan
5. Josh Kinney
I believe that McClellan will be on the team, but there remains a small chance he could be needed to start. As of today, his official status is as a starter, though that is expected to change at some point when all five members of the rotation seem fully healthy and ready to begin the season. If Mitchell Boggs can continue to build upon his solid spring debut, he may also ease the McClellan shift back to relief.
Kinney has been struggling with his command and location, but that is likely an early spring issue that will be worked out. Though the righty missed most of the last two seasons following dual elbow surgeries, he returned for an impressive, though short, re-audition last September.
Next we have the closer. It seems things continue to line up such that there will be room for one of the two of Perez and Motte on the opening roster, but not both. Let’s assume that for now.
6. Motte/Perez
Are these the manager’s six filled positions?
In a traditional La Russa/Duncan pen, the final spot is a long reliever-spot starter. I don’t want to read anything into early spring performances, but I did note with interest Franklin’s three-inning outing the other day.
Having spent most of his career as a starter prior to arriving in St. Louis, the 36-year-old wanted to compete for a rotation spot when he was signed two years ago. Perhaps it is nothing, but coupling this with the idea of using Miller in the ninth inning might free up Franklin for a longer role in 2009.
Coming into camp, Franklin was most often mentioned as the fallback for a Perez-Motte dual failure. Franklin did not shine as the closer last season, however.
7. To be determined
I see at least three paths here, labeled Options A, B and C. They involve four pitchers in a fight for one job – Brad Thompson, Royce Ring, Charlie Manning and one of Perez and Motte.
Option A: The long man
That Franklin-Miller scenario would put incumbent long-reliever/spot starter Brad Thompson on the hot seat and potentially open up Option B or C below.
Thompson seems to be a guy never able to lock down a role, yet offers a manager a lot of flexibility. For whatever reason, when Thompson starts, the club wins. Since coming up in 2005, the right-hander has started 24 games, during which the Cardinals went 17-7.
Option B: The third lefty
I have noted in the past that the Cardinals have not broken camp with three left-handers in the pen since the short-lived and ill-fated Bill Pulsipher experiment in 2005. That lasted five games for Pulse. The previous case was 2001, a time when another non-roster invitee, Jeff Tabaka, made the team. That lefty remained longer, but it wasn’t an entirely satisfactory result.
The third season in La Russa’s 13 in St. Louis in which the team came north with three left-handed relievers was 1999. That year, in an oddity, the club began the season with three lefties starting (Kent Mercker, Donovan Osborne and Darren Oliver) and three more in the pen (Mike Mohler, Lance Painter and Scott Radinsky).
Back to the here and now, so far in camp, neither lefties Charlie Manning nor Royce Ring have pitched themselves off the team. Both are on the 40-man roster and either could nail down that final spot, a point to which La Russa alluded in his quote above. Maybe the competition is real and maybe it is designed to head off any potential post-Reyes letdown by the pair.
Option C: The second closer
It would be unfair to Motte and Perez to not acknowledge that if each impresses all month long, the club could decide to keep them both.
Speaking of options, let’s discuss options as they relate to the club’s ability to ship these players to the minors. All of the players in question except Ring have an option remaining, which include Motte, Perez, Manning, and even Thompson, though the latter would have to pass through revocable waivers first. This is likely a formality that should not inhibit the decision-making process. Even McClellan and Kinney have options in the unlikely event it gets to that.
All in all, this gives La Russa and Duncan maximum flexibility to shape their pen and decide who to name as that seventh man.
If they landed Reyes just to place one of these other guys as a third lefty out of the pen, I might cry. If they can push Thompson through, maybe that’s for the best.
It seems very wrong to consider a guy good enough to potentially be your closer for the year (Motte, Perez), but not yet good enough to avoid potentially being demoted. It’s a very odd situation.
I think it is a bit early to predict but today I am guessing.
SP= Carpenter, Wainright, Wellemeyer, Lhose, Piniero
BP = McClellan, Miller, Reyes, Perez, Motte, Franklin, Kinney
with Boggs/Thompson/McClellan awailable either as a starter or in the pen depending on others health/effectiveness.
Nutlaw, it all gets down to who you want to keep and who you want to demote. I am not troubled by sending Motte or Perez if necessary down to Memphis to close, though I agree a third lefty ahead of one of them would be odd. To me, the long man is the first domino.
Remember that the Cardinals starters are not exactly workhorses. Carp probably won’t be able to go more than six and the three on the back end of the rotation will be lucky to average six. The Cards are going to need long guys for sixth and seventh innings, which is where Thompson and perhaps Franklin, if his role changes, fit in. Not everyone can work single innings, especially the ninth.
I think your on it Brian. They will Rotate closers, Motte and Perez to Memphis, unless there is a huge breakdown with another arm.
I think BigChief has it right. Duncan LOVES Motte, and for psychological/development reasons, you can’t send Perez down. Ergo, no designated long-man; McClellan will be an uber longman/multi-innings designee. Remember, he is harder on lefties than rights anyway. Plus, he’s already stretched out to do it. He may get tired and need to go down to Memphis after a bit. If so, you bring Boggs up to replace him. Not ideal, but otherwise you have to bounce either Kinney or Motte. KInney I can see being sent down. Motte? No way.
McClellan was a stud for the first four months and then really struggled down the stretch. Was he overworked? Probably. Is there an injury concern? Let’s hope he can show that he has bounced back this spring, both physically and mentally. If not, he has options, IIRC.
WC, I don’t like the idea of rotating closers between Memphis and the ninth inning in the big leagues. I’m not sure what kind of message you’d be sending to a young pitcher if you put him on the I-55 shuttle. I can see one of them starting the season in Memphis because of the number of pitchers on the roster but I believe both should end up on the major league roster and stay unless there are problems between the ears. Those are two impressive arms.
I’ve gotta believe Mo is watching box scores closely and reading injury reports of other teams. Pitchers are always in demand and Thompson may end up in somebody’s rotation, somewhere.
I expect they will begin with the veterans, Franklin and Miller, as a closer by committee of two vets. Franklin did the job last year, he is the incumbent, with Miller helping on left swinging batters. In due course, Franklin & Miller will take some frustrating losses. No surprise. This will provide the impetus for experimentation with someone else getting opportunities to close.
A gradual transition prevents the closer role being dumped on Perez or Motte, as the rookie white knight called on to save the day. If Perez closes a game, he gets another chance . If he blows a save, Kinney or Motte get a chance. This eases into finding a new closer. Kinney, McClellan, Motte, Perez can each get chances, without one of these guys branded as a “failure.”
I could see Perez or Motte starting the season at Memphis. This gives the Cards a surge opportunity to reinforce the ML team, later in the season.
McClellan slumped last summer. If McClellan does not bounce back this spring, he could land at Memphis.
Thompson did not get used a lot last year. He does not seem to be getting better through the years, as one would like. But he is helpful in terms of being flexible. If Thompson does not pitch well, Boggs could get called up.
You guys give a lot of baseball advise. All good. All valid reasoning. So I think you might agree that if Motte and Perez show well in Spring training, both should start with the big team, right? So you might agree that if this is the case, and they are split, there might be a few other factors in play. I hope I’m wrong, but I see them being split. If we end up with Franklin as a closer, he will be broken like last year, and we lose a very good 7thing finesse guy. Thursdays meeting got you Reyes. There won’t be any calvary from here on out.. We circled the wagon last year for no reason other than making BDs whip sound loud. Tony knows where he stand after Thursdays meeting I thinks. From here on out we see who is the best politician . The Steinbriener line between on field operations and management has be reestablished. Lets hope Tony can hold it. I think the team looks good if it holds. Pray for Carp.
It might make sense, now that I think about it, to send McClellan to Memphis and keep him starting. Surely he is more valuable for 2010 as a starter, no? And he has never even pitched in AAA. A full season of starts might be good for him, and would certainly improve his stamina. You bring him up when one of the starters gets injured–which will almost certainly happen. Much better to tell him his role for 2010 is to start (what Duncan has said he favors, IIRC), and it’s not punishment, just training. Sending Motte or Perez down there on the Brad Thompson Express Bus is both a waste and psychologically depleting.
All that assumes Kinney looks really good at the end of this month. We will see.
Thats solid Red. McClellan is looking a bit shaky. That might be a good argument for Tony keeping both P and M.
WC: The season is long, 162 games. Franklin and Miller can save at the onset. Then we can adjust, as time slowly unfolds.
Motte and Perez could both make the opening day roster. Or one could be at Memphis, working on his game. He is easily recalled. I do not see it as a big deal, one way or the other. Yet I would be a little surprised if neither guy made the April roster.
(You say tomatoe, I say tomato, potato, potatoe, calvary, cavalry, lets call the calling off off.)
Miller is fragile. So is Franklin. If they are working the 9th, we are losers. Period. Tony did that last year to with Franklin to create tension for this year. It didn’t work. DeWitt didn’t flinch. Franklin is so relaxed now. We need that. And we need that guy every day to pick up Lohse after 6 and and Wanio after 6 or 7. They would be insane to let Carp every get to the 7th inning, regardless of pitch count. (unless it was a ridiculous 50s or something.) One heroic attempt at a shut out or no hitter could end his season.
Franklin led the team in saves in 2008. He is the incumbent, at the top of the depth chart for closer. Since Franklin is not a great closer, as the Cards know full well, we replace him with Miller against tough lefty hitters. This is for the onset of the season. As time goes by, we will evolve to another arrangement for the 9th inning.
Carpenter is an efficient pitcher. To the best of my knowledge, there is no reason for Carp not to throw 100 pitches in a start.
I’m not sure why Kinney gets a guaranteed spot. Yes, he has been good but no better than Perez and Motte. He has less experience than Perez and about the same as Motte. I want to see what happens when he pitches 3 out of 4 days. Will his arm hold up?
The bubble guy here could very well be Thompson. If TLR like enough of what they see with Boggs, Walters and Hawksworth they may let McClellen be the swing guy and use these guys as plan B if there is an injury. The new, economical Cardinals may look to save $450K by cutting Thompson before April 1st if they can’t trade him.
Jumbo–
I don’t think Franklin/Miller is very workable. Franklin is an on/off type pitcher. Miller is really not a guy to send in against righthanders. In theory Franklin is the best everyday closer option, but in reality, it just isn’t his best role, which is probably the seventh inning–his job in 2007. I’m not sure Miller is “fragile” (as WC says), but I wouldn’t want to push him too hard. He’s a lefthanded Russ Springer in many respects, and it just doesn’t pay to push it.
I think Thompson is on his way out, though I can see the argument for keeping him around when say, Pineiro has to come out after five innings because he got rocked.
Thompson went three scoreless innings on two hits Saturday.
I just read that Perez is getting another shot for his sore left heel, which is now being called a “malformed” bone. He is going to try to hold off surgery to have it shaved until after the season.
CC, Kinney delivered in the post-season in 2006 and TLR is not the kind to forget that, especially when the alternatives have not yet been battle tested. I am not defending it, just explaining what I think he might be thinking. With questionable pen depth, the Cardinals would be fools to out and out release Thompson. They are going to need all these guys through the summer, I predict.
RedC, I am with you on McClellan starting and have been all along. It is a preference he also stated over the winter, though he did not say if he’d rather be starting in Memphis than relieving in St. Louis. I don’t see Motte as a lock like you though. He has just 11 innings of September ball plus two spring training innings so far.
RedC: I am not suggesting Franklin/Miller is “very workable.” TLR thought Fuentes was very workable. But TLR has to work with what he has. And he does not have a great established closer. So he is going to have to start with what he has and blend in opportunities for other pitchers, in hopes somebody will step up.
Brian: please add Perez to the Glaus list of people with problems that seem not to get aggressively diagnosed early. If you are Mo, this has to be a frustrating list.
Jumbo, my understanding is that Perez is not a misdiagnosis. Instead, he passed on surgery in November because it conflicted with his wedding and took a cortisone shot instead. Perhaps the now-Mrs. Perez put down the hammer.
Mo would seem to have every reason to be frustrated, though in this case, not at the medical staff. Perez says he doesn’t feel it when pitching, but there seems a decent chance the situation could deteriorate over the next seven months.
Kinney’s uncertainty is durability. If his rebuilt elbow is sound, then he should make the team. Kinney can get people out without having to throw it by them. He is a pitcher, not a thrower. But he did not close in the minors. He seems suited for the 6th or 7th innings.
Ok, Perez is the first name on the Perez list. Its a frustrating list too, but seems different from the Glaus list.
A question for the Cardinals is whether Perez should go to surgery now? Maybe he could be back by July. This would mean Franklin and Motte would have to hold down the fort until mid-season.
The alternative question: can Chris Perez pitch well with the sore foot? I guess we will find out the answer.
Nice to see Piniero and Thompson do well today . . … . ahhh Spring!
Except for the PTBN in the K. Greene trade ,( probably he will be a pitcher rated lower than Worrell)
I don’t see how the Redbirds can deal any of the top 16 pitchers on the 40 man. Thompson can be pretty darn valuable when there are injuries and a good swing option.
Should be clearer in a couple weeks re: Kinney, Motte, Perez, Thompson.
Agree, chief. I believe it was said in one of the papers at the time of the trade that none of the K. Greene PTBNL choices appeared in the majors last season. At least that is what I recall…
There are so many health variable, lets wait till march 25 for this conversation. This very long spring training has to be a bit of a change up for pacing and evaluating.
Anybody seen Reyes pitch besides me? He reminds me of everyday Eddie a bit. Also has a slider like all good lefties, JC Romero style. He knows his game, and can be effective, but if he gets off to a bad start, watch out. He wasn’t hung out there over money issues alone. He was selling his numbers. No one else in the AL central thought much of him it seems. He was the least expensive of the three left out there, and if you noticed, that contract was ready to go with a phone call. I hope they treat him well and that he finds he likes it here. The rug in Minnesota sucks for ground ball pitchers.
Re the Perez foot thing:
I suffer from plantar fascitis, but don’t feel it when I run (which is daily). This sounds like the exact same type of situation–a bone or growth putting pressure on soft tissue at the heel. I don’t know that it it’s likely to flare up and get worse. My guess is that it’s likely to behave exactly as Young Pitcher expects it to. Let’s not bemoan another medical mistake here, at least not yet.
Cortisone shots make me wonder. We will see how Perez plays and if he can pitch fine, with the shots, great.
I ran this by Rick Wilton, my baseball injury expert (baseball-injury-report.com). Though we don’t know the exact bone, Rick’s view is that if Perez can last 90 days between shots, he should be able to get through the season.
This off-season, we re-signed free agents Lohse and LaRue, added Greene via trade.
We picked up Manning on waivers, IIRC.
Added Miller and Reyes as free agent signees. And Ring and Ostlund.
And minor leaguer Thurston.
I guess this shows how Mo was focused. 5 acquisitions were loogies. Thurston added a candidate at 2B.
The tradition of adding competition via post-prime vets is changed, as has been noted already. The majority of extras in camp are from within the system.
This is in keeping with what has gone on already in the minors. It used to be the AA and AAA squads would have quite a few minor league free agents. But their numbers are much reduced in recent years. This provides more opportunity for Cards signees.